🇺🇸 Harvard rotates from BTC to ETH

According to the latest 13F filing, Harvard University adjusted its crypto exposure in Q4 2025.

• The university cut its Bitcoin ETF position by 21%, from $442M to $265M.
• At the same time, Harvard opened a new position in Ethereum ETFs worth $87M.

Looks like one of the world’s top endowments is rebalancing rather than exiting crypto, shifting part of its bet from BTC to ETH. Quiet move — but a telling one. 👀📊

💰 Strategy keeps buying the dip

Strategy added 2,486 BTC for $168.4M, paying an average of $67,710 per coin.

📊 As of Feb 16, 2026:

• Total holdings: 717,131 BTC
• Total spent: $54.52B
• Average entry price: $76,027

Yes, the data came out a bit late — looks like an intern forgot to hit “post” 😁
But the message is clear: Strategy is still stacking, even below its average price. 💪

📉 Bitcoin could dip to $55K before a reversal

The CEO of CryptoQuant believes the market is now in a full-fledged bear phase, and a sustainable recovery may take months.

Key points:
• Despite hundreds of billions in capital inflows, total market cap is stagnating — sell pressure outweighs demand.
• ETF inflows are slowing, while OTC demand is weakening.
• Institutional investors are trimming positions and pulling capital.
• Large holders are executing aggressive sell-offs.

📊 Possible scenarios:
1️⃣ BTC drops to ~$55K, then forms a reversal.
2️⃣ Prolonged consolidation in the $60K–$70K range before the next uptrend.

❗️Altcoins look even weaker: fresh capital is flowing only into a few tokens with ETF narratives, while the broad “rising tide lifts all boats” story is gone.

Patience may matter more than hopium in this phase. 🧐

🚀 Ethereum hits a new milestone

For the first time in history, over 50% of all ETH supply is now locked in Proof-of-Stake staking contracts, according to data from Santiment. 🔎

This signals a growing shift from speculation to yield and long-term conviction. During market slowdowns, trading activity typically drops — and staking becomes the preferred strategy for many holders.

📈 If the market remains weak or sideways, the share of staked ETH is likely to keep increasing, further reducing liquid supply and strengthening Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals.

🌐 Global uncertainty hits an all-time high

The world has entered the most uncertain period in modern history — surpassing the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2008 global financial crisis, and even the dot-com bubble 👀

Geopolitics, rates, inflation, tech shifts — everything is in flux at once.
In an environment like this, even traditional markets struggle with direction.

So yeah… trying to confidently predict where crypto goes next feels a bit like fortune-telling 🔮🤔

High uncertainty = high volatility. Buckle up. 🎢

📉 Altcoins under the heaviest pressure in 5 years

🔎 According to data from CryptoQuant, sell pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year extreme.

📊 This isn’t a short-term dip — it’s 13 straight months of net selling on spot CEX markets. Demand is drying up, liquidity is thin, and buyers are simply not stepping in.

With many alts breaking new lows again and again, the big question remains:
who’s going to catch a falling knife for the fifth time in a row? 🤷‍♂️

For now, the market is clearly in survival mode rather than accumulation.

📈The gap between Strategy and IBIT is shrinking fast

Strategy is now just 44,000 BTC behind IBIT, BlackRock’s flagship Bitcoin ETF. 👀

Institutions aren’t just buying Bitcoin — they’re competing for control over supply. And this race is far from over 🟠🏁

🤞 Eric Trump stays ultra-bullish on Bitcoin

Eric Trump says he still believes Bitcoin can reach $1 million — and claims he’s never been more optimistic about BTC and crypto overall.

This optimism isn’t happening in a vacuum. According to Bloomberg, the family of Donald Trump earned around $1.4B from crypto assets in 2025, making digital assets a major contributor to their growing net worth. 💵

When crypto brings in billions, long-term conviction suddenly becomes much easier 😅

📊 CryptoQuant Signal: BTC Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hits Buy Zone

🔎 According to CryptoQuant, the Sharpe Ratio for short-term Bitcoin positions has dropped into an extremely negative zone — a level that historically marked peak market stress.

🔹 The Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted returns
🔹 Current readings are at extreme lows
🔹 In past cycles, this zone appeared near local bottoms
🔹 Every previous dip here was followed by sharp rebounds and new highs

📈 While sentiment remains bearish, data suggests risk/reward is quietly shifting in favor of buyers.

As always, signals don’t guarantee outcomes — but this is a zone the market has respected before. 👀

🔍 “Bitcoin Going to Zero” Searches Hit Record High

Panic is peaking. According to Google Trends, global searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” reached an all-time high (100) in February 2026 — the highest level in over 3.5 years. 🙀

📉 This comes as Bitcoin trades ~50% below its ATH of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025), amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Key signals of fear:
▪️ Search spike mirrors June 2022 capitulation
▪️ Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 11 (extreme fear), recently dipped to 5
▪️ Retail sentiment reacting sharply to volatility

🧠 Debate in the market:
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin notes that buying during extreme fear doesn’t guarantee short-term gains — average 90-day returns below 25 on the index are just ~2.4%.

📈 But zoom out:
Historically, over a 12-month horizon, BTC has delivered 300%+ average gains after extreme fear phases. 🚀

⚖️ Short-term fear dominates, panic searches explode — but for long-term investors, this is the classic battlefield where accumulation narratives are born.

🔥 Wall Street Loads Up on BitMine Shares

Institutional heavyweights are aggressively increasing exposure to BitMine, according to recent 13F filings. 📝

Major moves:
▪️ Morgan Stanley: +26% (12.2M shares)
▪️ ARK Invest: +27% (9.5M)
▪️ BlackRock: +166% (9M)
▪️ Goldman Sachs: +588% (5.2M)
▪️ Bank of America: +1668% (3.2M)
▪️ Vanguard, Citigroup, Charles Schwab — also added heavily.

📊 In total, 457 institutional holders now control 136.7M BitMine shares worth $2.86B.

💡 Reminder: BitMine, backed by Tom Lee, is the largest corporate holder of Ethereum.

When Wall Street piles in like this, it’s rarely random. Institutions are clearly positioning for something big. 🤔

🤔 Retail Is Almost Gone — CryptoQuant

🔎 According to CryptoQuant, retail participation in the market has nearly vanished.

Historically, mass retail capitulation has tended to occur in the late stages of a Bitcoin correction, not at the beginning.

📉 When small investors exit en masse:
▪️ Selling pressure is often close to exhaustion
▪️ Weak hands are flushed out
▪️ Market structure starts shifting toward stabilization

🔜 While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, past cycles show that periods of minimal retail presence have often preceded the formation of a local or macro bottom for Bitcoin.

Retail fear is peaking — and historically, that’s when the market starts setting the stage for the next move. 👀

😮 BTC Enters a “Buy Zone”

The Bitcoin Short-Term Sharpe Ratio, flagged by CryptoQuant, has entered a zone where cycle bottoms historically formed, followed by market recovery.

📊 In past cycles, this signal often marked:
▪️ Peak fear
▪️ Exhausted sellers
▪️ The start of a rebound for Bitcoin

…but reality loves plot twists 😏

Possible 2026 сценарий:
▪️ BTC starts moving toward $75k
▪️ FOMO kicks in → $80k
▪️ Trump attacks Iran

💥 Result: Bitcoin at $30k — congratulations, now that’s your perfect buy zone 😁

💥Crypto companies Kalshi, Polymarket, and Phantom have been named among the Top 50 most innovative fintech companies worldwide by Forbes!

This marks a major milestone for the industry: prediction markets and crypto wallets are no longer niche tools, but core parts of the global fintech landscape.

📌 Crypto infrastructure is steadily moving from the fringe into the financial mainstream — with institutional recognition to match.

🐸 Vitalik vs Aliens

Vitalik Buterin placed a $148,000 bet on Polymarket that the US will NOT officially confirm the existence of aliens before 2027. 👀

This comes right after Donald Trump promised to declassify UFO-related files — which instantly pushed Polymarket odds from 12% to 28%.

🧠 Vitalik’s track record:

2024: $52k bet → +$1.5k
2025: $25k bet → +$2.7k
2026: $148k on “NO” → potential +$16k

💬 You can invent Ethereum, but Trump can still move the market with one sentence.

Now the question: does Vitalik double down… or is disclosure closer than we think? 👽

🇺🇸 US Supreme Court strikes down Trump-era tariffs

🏦 The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that Donald Trump overstepped his authority by using emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose global trade tariffs. The decision covers both “reciprocal” and targeted import duties, some of which were justified by the administration as part of the fight against fentanyl trafficking.

The ruling opens the door to refund claims exceeding $150B in already collected tariffs — a serious fiscal risk. Hundreds of lawsuits seeking reimbursements are still pending, and the refund process is expected to be messy. The Court has not yet clarified who would be eligible for compensation.

Trump’s response:
• Called the ruling a “disgrace.”
• Said he has a backup plan for tariffs.
• Claimed courts need to be dealt with.

⚠️ Despite the setback, fentanyl-related tariffs remain in force. Trump says alternative, more effective tools than IEEPA will be used — and that the government could collect even more revenue going forward.👀

USDT supply is shrinking 💵📉

The circulating supply of Tether’s USDT fell by $1.5B in February, following another $1.2B decline in January, according to Bloomberg. 🗞

If this trend holds, USDT is on track for its largest monthly contraction since December 2022 — when investors pulled roughly $2B after the collapse of FTX. 🧐

📉 A shrinking stablecoin supply often signals reduced risk appetite and tighter liquidity across crypto markets, as capital temporarily exits or moves to alternatives.

🗽 CZ back in the US — post-prison appearance

Changpeng Zhao has visited the US for the first time since serving his sentence, attending a crypto summit hosted by World Liberty Financial at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.

💰 Earlier, Binance admitted to regulatory violations in the US and paid a $3.4B fine. Zhao personally paid $50M, served four months in prison, and received a presidential pardon in 2025. Media reports suggested possible links between WLFI and Binance around the launch of the USD1 stablecoin, but all parties deny any backroom deals.

The event was also attended by executives from major banks, exchanges, and regulators — signaling renewed dialogue between crypto, TradFi, and policymakers in the US.

🐋 Whales are back on exchanges — and in force

🔎 According to CryptoQuant, the Exchange Whale Ratio has surged to 0.64, its highest level since 2015.

This means 64% of all BTC inflows to exchanges now come from just 10 largest wallets — an extreme concentration not seen in 11 years. 👀

📊 Historically, such levels have often preceded increased selling pressure, as large holders move coins to exchanges ahead of distribution.

⚠️ While not a timing signal on its own, this data suggests whales are becoming active — a factor the market can’t ignore.

📊 Bitcoin trading well below “fair value”

According to Bitwise, BTC is currently trading nearly 40% below its implied fair value, based on global ETP fund flows.

This gap suggests that current market prices do not fully reflect institutional demand coming through regulated investment products. 👀

📉 In simple terms: sentiment and price are lagging behind capital flows — a setup that has historically appeared during periods of fear and underpricing.

Whether this turns into a rebound or stays undervalued depends on broader macro and risk appetite, but the disconnect is hard to ignore. 🤔