🐻 Twitter bears predict $25K BTC in 2026… but the thesis is weak

Some crypto Twitter bears are pushing a scenario where Bitcoin dumps to $25,000 in 2026, arguing that BTC has “matured” and will no longer trend up — only range between $20K and $120K indefinitely. 🥴

The problem? This narrative ignores Bitcoin’s core dynamics: fixed supply, expanding institutional adoption, sovereign-level interest, and long-term liquidity cycles. A market that never trends but only oscillates at massive ranges sounds more like theory than reality. 🤔

We’re not buying it. Are you?

🇺🇸 Trump denies knowledge of UAE investment in World Liberty Financial

Donald Trump said he is unaware of any investments by the UAE royal family into the crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLF), telling reporters that “his sons handle that.” He also repeated that he has “done more for crypto than anyone,” framing it as part of US competition with China. 🤷

The comments follow a Wall Street Journal investigation, which claims that Abu Dhabi–based Aryam Investment 1, linked to UAE national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, quietly acquired 49% of WLF. According to WSJ, the $500M deal was signed in January 2025 by Eric Trump, just days before Trump’s inauguration, and was never publicly disclosed.

WSJ also notes the timing coincided with lobbying efforts by the Sheikh for access to advanced US AI chips. WLF is co-founded by Trump and his sons, and led by Zach Witkoff, whose father is Trump’s Middle East envoy. 👀

🤓 CZ responds to recent FUD around himself and Binance

Changpeng Zhao addressed the most popular FUD narratives circulating over the past few days:

1️⃣ “Secret $7M bet on Polymarket”

Fake. There is no such market on Polymarket or any other prediction platform. The claimed volume simply doesn’t exist.

2️⃣ “CZ canceled the supercycle”

Misinterpretation. CZ said he is less confident in a supercycle than before, but never declared its end. Twitter filled in the rest.

3️⃣ “Binance sold $1B in BTC”

Incorrect. BTC was sold by Binance users, not the exchange itself. Wallet balance changes mostly reflect user withdrawals, while many still keep assets on the platform.

4️⃣ “SAFU fund isn’t buying BTC”

Binance previously announced a SAFU restructuring: $1B will be converted from stablecoins into BTC within 30 days. Purchases are done via CEX, and transfers may happen closer to the end of the period.

Overall, $1B over a month is tiny versus BTC’s ~$1.7T market cap — more a signal than a real price-moving force.

🎂 Bitcoin’s biggest bull turns 61

Michael Saylor, one of the most influential Bitcoin advocates in the world, is celebrating his 61st birthday today. 🎉

To mark the occasion, the Saylor Tracker — which monitors all Bitcoin purchases by Strategy — switched into a special birthday mode, highlighting just how closely the market follows Saylor’s BTC moves.

From corporate BTC adoption to long-term conviction, Saylor remains a key symbol of the Bitcoin maxi narrative. Happy birthday to one of BTC’s loudest believers 🚀

📉 Bitcoin losing its footing

🔎 Galaxy’s Head of Research warns that BTC’s current weakness may not be random. According to his view, Bitcoin could drift toward its 200-week moving average near $58K in the coming weeks or months.🙀

🧐 Key factors behind the pressure:

▪️ Around 46% of the total BTC supply is currently at a loss
▪️ Bitcoin has failed to move in sync with gold and silver, weakening its “safe-haven” narrative

For now, few are eager to call Bitcoin digital gold again 😬

👀 Could Strategy go bankrupt this year as BTC trades below its average purchase price?

Despite Bitcoin dipping below Strategy’s average entry, the market isn’t betting on a collapse. According to Polymarket, the probability of Strategy going bankrupt this year is just 10%.💪

📊 This suggests traders believe Strategy’s balance sheet, long-term BTC thesis, and access to capital are strong enough to weather short-term volatility — even if price pressure persists.

Bitwise stays bullish on Bitcoin 😳

🤵‍♂️ The Head of Research at Bitwise says there’s a high probability that BTC will set a new all-time high this year. Looking further ahead, the firm believes Bitcoin could reach $1M within the next 10 years. 👀

🔮 Strong long-term conviction remains intact — driven by adoption, institutional interest, and Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative.

🤨 But the market clearly isn’t in a rush: despite such bold forecasts, price action remains weak and BTC keeps dipping on short-term fear and uncertainty.

Big visions, shaky hands — at least for now. 🤷

😬 BTC Mass Capitulation May Be Near

🔎 Glassnode warns that Bitcoin could be approaching a broad capitulation phase. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dropped to around 1.5 and is moving toward the critical level of 1.

📉 Historically, a break below this zone signals large-scale capitulation: investors start locking in losses instead of profits, liquidity dries up, and downside pressure accelerates — often leading to sharp BTC drawdowns.

⚠️ If this level fails, the market could face another wave of forced selling before any sustainable recovery begins.

😥 CryptoQuant: BTC Bear Phase May Last at Least 100 More Days

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s bearish trend is far from over. The Puell Multiple has been stuck in the discount zone since November 2025 — already about 3 months.

📉 Historically, BTC tends to remain in this zone for ~200 days. So far, only half of that period has passed, suggesting the market may face another ~100 days of weakness.

⛏️ Adding pressure, smaller BTC miners are being forced to shut down equipment and capitulate to cover operating costs, increasing sell-side pressure on the market.

Bottom line: on-chain data signals that the current correction is likely not finished yet, and patience may still be required before a sustainable recovery begins. 🧐

🎁 A “Gift” for Michael Saylor: BTC at $72K

Bitcoin marked Michael Saylor’s 61st birthday with an unexpected present — a drop to $72,000, the lowest level since November 2024. 🤷

📉 As a result, Strategy’s unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings has now exceeded $2.5 billion, according to portfolio data.

Earlier, Saylor invited everyone to “give him a gift” by buying some BTC. For now, sellers seem more active than buyers.

The irony is hard to miss: while the loudest Bitcoin bull celebrates his birthday, the market delivers a reminder that volatility never takes a day off.

Tom Lee Is in Even Deeper Trouble Than Michael Saylor 🥶

While Bitcoin bulls are feeling the pain, Ethereum isn’t making things easier either. According to portfolio data, Tom Lee’s ETH strategy is now sitting on an unrealized loss of $7.2 billion. 🙀

📊 BitMine currently controls 4,285,125 ETH, worth around $9.16 billion, making it one of the largest known ETH holders.

The numbers highlight how brutal the current market drawdown is — even the most vocal crypto bulls are deep in the red, proving once again that conviction doesn’t protect portfolios from volatility. 🤷

📉 Crypto Market Loses $200B Overnight

The crypto market saw a sharp sell-off, losing over $200 billion in total market capitalization since last night.

Bitcoin briefly tested the $70,000 level, adding pressure across the market and triggering further weakness in altcoins. ⬇️

🧠 CryptoQuant: Is BTC Repeating the 2022 Bear Market?

🔎 CryptoQuant analysts point out striking similarities between the current Bitcoin market structure and the 2022 downtrend.

The UTXO in Loss (%) metric has re-entered the 27–30% zone, meaning a large share of holders has moved from profit into unrealized losses — almost a mirror of May 2022, when BTC fell from $65k to $15k. 📉

Historically, this zone is a decision area, not an instant sell signal:

A break and hold above 30% often leads to deeper downside as loss supply grows.

If the metric stalls or reverses within 27–30%, selling pressure tends to exhaust, opening the door for recovery.

This phase doesn’t mark peak panic yet — it tests whether the market can still absorb fear, or if most of the downside is already priced in.

The key question now: where does Bitcoin find its floor this time? 🤔

🇺🇸 The U.S. Won’t Bail Out Bitcoin

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government will hold confiscated BTC, but will not buy Bitcoin to support the market or force banks to purchase BTC during downturns. 👀

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, created by executive order under Donald Trump, allows only:

• BTC obtained via asset seizures
• Budget-neutral swaps (e.g. oil, gold, or other reserves exchanged for BTC)

No taxpayer-funded purchases, no market rescues. 🤷

The comments came after crypto critic Congressman Brad Sherman asked whether the Treasury could “save Bitcoin” or mandate bank buying. Bessent made it clear: neither he nor regulators have such authority.

Notably, seized BTC held by the U.S. government has reportedly grown from ~$500M to over $15B in value — but Washington has no plans to actively step in if the market falls.

📉 Translation: Bitcoin is on its own. No Fed put. No government backstop.

📉 Bitcoin briefly dips below $70,000 for the first time since Nov 2024

🙀 BTC slipped under $70K, nearly touching $69,000 and marking a 15-month low. Price has since bounced back above $70,000, but the move looks more like a short-term relief bounce than a trend reversal.

The key question remains: where is the real bottom? 👀

🔎 According to CryptoQuant analysts, the “true” BTC capitulation has not started yet. Unrealized loss metrics suggest that panic selling is still limited, meaning further downside cannot be ruled out before the market fully resets.

Vitalik Buterin criticized similar L2 networks

🧑‍💻Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin doubled down on his criticism of look-alike L2 networks, calling the endless launch of “yet another EVM chain and add an optimistic bridge to Ethereum with a 1 week delay” a dead end.

According to Vitalik:

• We don’t need more copy-paste EVMs
• We definitely don’t need new L1s
• Ethereum L1 is already scaling and will provide enough EVM blockspace

Instead, builders should focus on real innovation: privacy, app-specific chains, non-financial use cases (social, AI), and architectures that actually add new capabilities. 👀

He highlighted app-chains as a strong model, using prediction markets as an example: markets and users live on Ethereum L1, while trading happens on an L2 — creating deep, native integration rather than an afterthought bridge. 🔮

Vitalik’s key message:

• Build something genuinely new
• Don’t fake your Ethereum connection
• Your public narrative must match your actual architecture

The red-candle parade continues 😢

Bitcoin is testing the $67K zone, while Ethereum has already slipped below $2,000, adding more pressure across the market. 📉

🔻 Unrealized losses are stacking up:

▪️ Michael Saylor (Strategy): −$6.2B
▪️ Tom Lee (BitMine / ETH exposure): −$7.95B

Even the most committed bulls are no longer counting upside multiples — they’re measuring drawdowns instead. Looks like peaceful sleep is officially off the table 😱

😱 $2.6B liquidations in 24 hours — extreme fear is back

A brutal night for crypto markets. BTC briefly dropped to $60,000, while ETH fell to $1,750, triggering a wave of forced liquidations.

▪️ $2.6 billion in futures positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.

A likely catalyst was Strategy’s Q4 2025 financial report:
▸ The company reported a $12.4B loss amid BTC’s decline.
▸ Strategy still holds $2.25B in liquid assets, enough to cover debt interest and dividends for ~2.5 years — but the headline spooked the market.

😱 The Fear & Greed Index collapsed to 9 — “Extreme Fear”, a level not seen since June 2022.

That period marked the peak of the “crypto winter,” witht the collapse of Celsius Network, downfall of Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and ngoing domino effects after the Terra/LUNA crash.

🏦 Strategy: balance sheet risk only if BTC hits $8,000

Strategy CEO Phong Le said that Bitcoin would need to fall to ~$8,000 and stay there for 5–6 years before Strategy faces real problems servicing its convertible debt. 👀

The company reported a $12.6B net loss in Q4, driven mainly by unrealized BTC losses under mark-to-market accounting. Still, management emphasized a long-term strategy and sufficient resilience to handle prolonged volatility. 📈

🎢 Bitcoin back at $70,000 — relief rally or just a pause?

BTC has reclaimed the $70K level as the market staged a solid evening recovery. Altcoins followed, with XRP jumping ~17%, rewarding those who bought the dip overnight. 🚀

However, Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich argues that a true bullish signal for Bitcoin usually appears only when sentiment is at its worst. In his view, a potential liquidation of Michael Saylor’s position could become the final capitulation event that marks a market bottom.

The logic is simple: when the market’s strongest symbol of conviction breaks, fear peaks — and reversals often follow. A historical parallel is FTX’s collapse in 2022, after which BTC entered a long-term uptrend.

📊 His outlook:

• Possible BTC rebound toward $92–95K
• Rally may be interrupted by another sell-off
• A $250K BTC in 2026 is seen as unlikely 🤷

🤯 Bithumb glitch sends shockwaves across the market

Yesterday, Bithumb mistakenly credited hundreds of users with 2,000 BTC instead of 2,000 KRW (~$1.5). Some recipients reacted instantly and market-sold the coins, smashing the order book. 💵📗

As a result, BTC on Bithumb briefly traded ~10% below the global market price, creating a sharp local dislocation. 📉

⚡️ The exchange moved quickly: within 35 minutes, Bithumb restricted trading and withdrawals for 695 affected accounts. According to the exchange, 99.7% of the mistakenly distributed BTC has now been recovered.

In total, the error involved around 620,000 BTC (≈$44B) in mistaken credits, with only a tiny fraction remaining unresolved. 😏