📊 Willy Woo: Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Caution
🔎 Analyst Willy Woo believes January could bring a short-term bounce to the crypto market as liquidity returns and a local bottom forms.
However, the longer-term picture looks far less optimistic. The Bitcoin Mempool & Transaction Fees chart remains extremely quiet, signaling weak on-chain activity — a pattern more typical of bear markets than the start of a strong uptrend. 👀
Bottom line: a possible January relief rally, but the underlying network activity still resembles a ghost town 👻📉
🔎 Analyst Willy Woo believes January could bring a short-term bounce to the crypto market as liquidity returns and a local bottom forms.
However, the longer-term picture looks far less optimistic. The Bitcoin Mempool & Transaction Fees chart remains extremely quiet, signaling weak on-chain activity — a pattern more typical of bear markets than the start of a strong uptrend. 👀
Bottom line: a possible January relief rally, but the underlying network activity still resembles a ghost town 👻📉
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🐃 Timothy Peterson: A Rally Could Be Ahead
🕵️♂️ Analyst Timothy Peterson expects a crypto market rally in the near term, based on Bitcoin seasonality and repeating cycles. His model compares current BTC price action with the 2022–2023 period and shows almost identical patterns. 🧐
The framework outlines three phases:
• Accumulate — December–January
• Wait — February–March
• Recover — April–June
If history rhymes once again, Bitcoin could enter a strong recovery phase in the coming months, setting the stage for a broader market rally 📈
🕵️♂️ Analyst Timothy Peterson expects a crypto market rally in the near term, based on Bitcoin seasonality and repeating cycles. His model compares current BTC price action with the 2022–2023 period and shows almost identical patterns. 🧐
The framework outlines three phases:
• Accumulate — December–January
• Wait — February–March
• Recover — April–June
If history rhymes once again, Bitcoin could enter a strong recovery phase in the coming months, setting the stage for a broader market rally 📈
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In Canada, heat from Bitcoin mining to grow tomatoes 🍅
Instead of wasting excess energy, liquid-cooled mining servers capture heat and recycle it into a greenhouse heating system in Manitoba. 🇨🇦
Around 90% of the electricity consumed by the miners is expected to be converted into usable heat, helping warm water for greenhouse boilers and support year-round tomato production.
The project highlights a growing trend: Bitcoin mining as dual-purpose infrastructure, where hash power not only secures the network but also heats homes, greenhouses, and industrial facilities 🌱♻️
Instead of wasting excess energy, liquid-cooled mining servers capture heat and recycle it into a greenhouse heating system in Manitoba. 🇨🇦
Around 90% of the electricity consumed by the miners is expected to be converted into usable heat, helping warm water for greenhouse boilers and support year-round tomato production.
The project highlights a growing trend: Bitcoin mining as dual-purpose infrastructure, where hash power not only secures the network but also heats homes, greenhouses, and industrial facilities 🌱♻️
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🔮 Prediction Markets Hit a New All-Time High
In December, the total volume of the prediction markets reached $19.1B, setting a new all-time record and beating the previous peak by ~35%. 📈
The top platforms by monthly trading volume:
• Kalshi — $7B
• Opinion — $6.7B
• Polymarket — $5.3B
The surge highlights growing interest in betting on real-world events and macro outcomes, as prediction markets continue to attract both retail users and larger capital looking for alternative ways to express market views. 🧐
In December, the total volume of the prediction markets reached $19.1B, setting a new all-time record and beating the previous peak by ~35%. 📈
The top platforms by monthly trading volume:
• Kalshi — $7B
• Opinion — $6.7B
• Polymarket — $5.3B
The surge highlights growing interest in betting on real-world events and macro outcomes, as prediction markets continue to attract both retail users and larger capital looking for alternative ways to express market views. 🧐
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🔥 The validator exit queue on Ethereum has dropped to zero for the first time since July 2025, meaning validators can now exit within minutes instead of waiting days.
At the same time, more than 1.3 million ETH is waiting in the staking entry queue, the highest level since mid-November. 📉
This shows growing demand to stake ETH while selling pressure from exiting validators has eased.
Such a setup is often viewed as bullish for ETH: fewer validators rushing to exit, more ETH being locked into staking, and reduced liquid supply on the market. 🚀
At the same time, more than 1.3 million ETH is waiting in the staking entry queue, the highest level since mid-November. 📉
This shows growing demand to stake ETH while selling pressure from exiting validators has eased.
Such a setup is often viewed as bullish for ETH: fewer validators rushing to exit, more ETH being locked into staking, and reduced liquid supply on the market. 🚀
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🤔 Bloomberg: Bitcoin ETFs could see massive inflows in 2026
🔎 Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas expects $50–70B to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 if BTC rises to the $130k–140k range.
The momentum is already visible: in the first two trading days of the year, net inflows reached $1.2B, which annualizes to roughly $150B.
Even under a weak market scenario, ETF inflows could still hit around $22B. If macro conditions improve, demand for Bitcoin ETFs may accelerate significantly — reinforcing their role as a major gateway for institutional capital into BTC. 💰
🔎 Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas expects $50–70B to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 if BTC rises to the $130k–140k range.
The momentum is already visible: in the first two trading days of the year, net inflows reached $1.2B, which annualizes to roughly $150B.
Even under a weak market scenario, ETF inflows could still hit around $22B. If macro conditions improve, demand for Bitcoin ETFs may accelerate significantly — reinforcing their role as a major gateway for institutional capital into BTC. 💰
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🐳 Whales didn’t sleep in 2025
The 21 largest Bitcoin holders massively increased their positions last year, accumulating BTC worth around $40 billion in total. 💰
While retail was panicking, trading noise, or waiting for “confirmation,” big players were quietly stacking. No hype, no emotions — just long-term conviction.
The 21 largest Bitcoin holders massively increased their positions last year, accumulating BTC worth around $40 billion in total. 💰
While retail was panicking, trading noise, or waiting for “confirmation,” big players were quietly stacking. No hype, no emotions — just long-term conviction.
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📉 Bitcoin may skip a new ATH in 2026
🔎 New research suggests Bitcoin is unlikely to set a new all-time high in 2026, despite short-term bullish signals. Analysts note a clear contrast: while lower timeframes show attempts at recovery, bears still control higher timeframes.
📊 A potential golden cross on the daily chart (21/50 SMA) could spark a short-term rally, but it doesn’t invalidate multiple long-term “short” signals. According to Material Indicators, BTC is likely to retest the yearly open near $87,500, with whales seemingly pushing for a deeper support test.
On higher timeframes, conditions remain fragile. Without weekly closes above the 50-week SMA (~$101,500) and stronger RSI readings, both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain at critical inflection points.
Bottom line: short-term volatility and bounces are possible, but a new ATH may have to wait until 2027. 🤷
🔎 New research suggests Bitcoin is unlikely to set a new all-time high in 2026, despite short-term bullish signals. Analysts note a clear contrast: while lower timeframes show attempts at recovery, bears still control higher timeframes.
📊 A potential golden cross on the daily chart (21/50 SMA) could spark a short-term rally, but it doesn’t invalidate multiple long-term “short” signals. According to Material Indicators, BTC is likely to retest the yearly open near $87,500, with whales seemingly pushing for a deeper support test.
On higher timeframes, conditions remain fragile. Without weekly closes above the 50-week SMA (~$101,500) and stronger RSI readings, both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain at critical inflection points.
Bottom line: short-term volatility and bounces are possible, but a new ATH may have to wait until 2027. 🤷
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😳 Zcash governance drama: team walks away to stay independent
⚡️A major governance split has hit Zcash ($ZEC). The CEO of Electric Coin Company (ECC) stated that Bootstrap, the nonprofit overseeing Zcash development, has drifted away from the project’s original mission.
As a result:
➥ The entire Zcash development team has left ECC
➥ Developers are forming a new company to continue maintaining and building Zcash
➥ The Zcash protocol itself is unaffected — the network is running normally
In simple terms, the dev team chose to exit under Bootstrap’s control to preserve independence and keep developing the privacy-focused coin without external pressure. 🧐
ECC has been responsible for Zcash development since launch, while Bootstrap controlled governance, budgets, and team conditions.
This marks a major shift in who steers Zcash’s future — but not a disruption to the chain itself. 🔗🚀
⚡️A major governance split has hit Zcash ($ZEC). The CEO of Electric Coin Company (ECC) stated that Bootstrap, the nonprofit overseeing Zcash development, has drifted away from the project’s original mission.
As a result:
➥ The entire Zcash development team has left ECC
➥ Developers are forming a new company to continue maintaining and building Zcash
➥ The Zcash protocol itself is unaffected — the network is running normally
In simple terms, the dev team chose to exit under Bootstrap’s control to preserve independence and keep developing the privacy-focused coin without external pressure. 🧐
ECC has been responsible for Zcash development since launch, while Bootstrap controlled governance, budgets, and team conditions.
This marks a major shift in who steers Zcash’s future — but not a disruption to the chain itself. 🔗🚀
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🇧🇷 Brazilian presidential hopeful wants a national Bitcoin reserve
Brazilian political activist and presidential candidate Renan Santos, founder of the Mission Party, says Brazil should create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, calling the idea “feasible” and pointing to El Salvador as an example. 🇸🇻🧐
Santos claims Bitcoin is already part of his election manifesto and believes blockchain can be used by the public sector to fight corruption and reduce embezzlement. He argues that more countries are moving toward BTC reserves and that Brazil shouldn’t be left behind.
Interest in Bitcoin at the state level is growing: Brazilian lawmakers previously held hearings on BTC reserves, and draft bills have proposed adding Bitcoin and other “secure” cryptocurrencies to the treasury. 💵
With elections set for October 4, Santos positions himself as a “Brazilian Bukele,” pushing pro-Bitcoin, pro-sovereignty policies — while controversy continues to follow his bold views.
Brazil stacking sats next? 👀
Brazilian political activist and presidential candidate Renan Santos, founder of the Mission Party, says Brazil should create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, calling the idea “feasible” and pointing to El Salvador as an example. 🇸🇻🧐
Santos claims Bitcoin is already part of his election manifesto and believes blockchain can be used by the public sector to fight corruption and reduce embezzlement. He argues that more countries are moving toward BTC reserves and that Brazil shouldn’t be left behind.
Interest in Bitcoin at the state level is growing: Brazilian lawmakers previously held hearings on BTC reserves, and draft bills have proposed adding Bitcoin and other “secure” cryptocurrencies to the treasury. 💵
With elections set for October 4, Santos positions himself as a “Brazilian Bukele,” pushing pro-Bitcoin, pro-sovereignty policies — while controversy continues to follow his bold views.
Brazil stacking sats next? 👀
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😐 Bitcoin capital inflows are drying up
🕵️♂️ CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says liquidity flows are now far more diversified, making it pointless to time “fresh inflows” like in past cycles. Long-term institutional players have broken the old model where whales sell and retail buys the dip.
Large holders such as Strategy are unlikely to dump any meaningful portion of their 673k BTC, reducing the risk of panic sell-offs. Meanwhile, capital has rotated into equities and precious metals. 💹
A classic -50%+ crash from ATH, seen in previous cycles, now looks unlikely. Instead, the market may face months of boring sideways price action.
🕵️♂️ CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says liquidity flows are now far more diversified, making it pointless to time “fresh inflows” like in past cycles. Long-term institutional players have broken the old model where whales sell and retail buys the dip.
Large holders such as Strategy are unlikely to dump any meaningful portion of their 673k BTC, reducing the risk of panic sell-offs. Meanwhile, capital has rotated into equities and precious metals. 💹
A classic -50%+ crash from ATH, seen in previous cycles, now looks unlikely. Instead, the market may face months of boring sideways price action.
Trying to short BTC here hoping for a sudden nuke?
Good luck with that. 😶🌫️
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👎 No pardon this time
📰 The New York Times reports that Donald Trump has shown no interest in pardoning former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
Despite speculation in parts of the crypto community, SBF is not on Trump’s mercy list. For now, the ex-head of the collapsed exchange remains far from any political lifeline.
Looks like even in crypto, some bags are simply too heavy to bail out. 🤷
📰 The New York Times reports that Donald Trump has shown no interest in pardoning former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
Despite speculation in parts of the crypto community, SBF is not on Trump’s mercy list. For now, the ex-head of the collapsed exchange remains far from any political lifeline.
Looks like even in crypto, some bags are simply too heavy to bail out. 🤷
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📉 Too early to bury the 4-year cycle
🕵️♂️ Analyst Willy Woo says it’s premature to declare the death of Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycles.
According to him, capital inflows into BTC are slowing down in a very familiar way — the same pattern seen in previous cycles. In other words, nothing “new” yet: the market may simply be following its old playbook.
So before calling this cycle “different,” Woo suggests taking a breath and watching the data. Bitcoin might still be moving to a rhythm we already know 😬
🕵️♂️ Analyst Willy Woo says it’s premature to declare the death of Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycles.
According to him, capital inflows into BTC are slowing down in a very familiar way — the same pattern seen in previous cycles. In other words, nothing “new” yet: the market may simply be following its old playbook.
So before calling this cycle “different,” Woo suggests taking a breath and watching the data. Bitcoin might still be moving to a rhythm we already know 😬
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📉 Bitcoin Open Interest hits a new low
Bitcoin’s open interest has dropped to its lowest level since 2022. This signals that leverage has largely been flushed out of the market, with traders stepping back and risk being reduced. 👀
🤔 Historically, similar open interest lows since 2022 have often marked periods of consolidation — or even the early stages of bullish reversals — especially once price action begins to stabilize.
In short: fewer leveraged bets, calmer conditions, and a setup that has previously aligned with market resets. Whether this turns bullish again will depend on what price does next. 📊🧐
Bitcoin’s open interest has dropped to its lowest level since 2022. This signals that leverage has largely been flushed out of the market, with traders stepping back and risk being reduced. 👀
🤔 Historically, similar open interest lows since 2022 have often marked periods of consolidation — or even the early stages of bullish reversals — especially once price action begins to stabilize.
In short: fewer leveraged bets, calmer conditions, and a setup that has previously aligned with market resets. Whether this turns bullish again will depend on what price does next. 📊🧐
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🎯 CryptoQuant: $79,000 is a key Bitcoin support
🔎 According to CryptoQuant, the $79K level is one of the most important support zones for Bitcoin. This price closely matches the realized price (average entry) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors.
At BTC ≈ $79,000, most ETF holders are at breakeven. A sustained break below this level would push institutions into unrealized losses, which could trigger profit-protection behavior, forced selling, and additional downside pressure on the market. 💵
In short: $79K isn’t just a chart level — it’s a psychological and institutional line in the sand. 🧐
🔎 According to CryptoQuant, the $79K level is one of the most important support zones for Bitcoin. This price closely matches the realized price (average entry) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors.
At BTC ≈ $79,000, most ETF holders are at breakeven. A sustained break below this level would push institutions into unrealized losses, which could trigger profit-protection behavior, forced selling, and additional downside pressure on the market. 💵
In short: $79K isn’t just a chart level — it’s a psychological and institutional line in the sand. 🧐
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🦋 Altcoins are taking over spot trading
🔗 On-chain data shows a clear shift in market activity: altcoins now dominate spot trading volumes. They account for around 50% of total volume, surpassing both Bitcoin (27%) and Ethereum (23%).
This suggests traders are increasingly rotating into higher-risk assets in search of better short-term returns, while BTC and ETH take a back seat.
Historically, such dominance often reflects speculative appetite and can precede periods of heightened volatility across the altcoin market. 🔥
🔗 On-chain data shows a clear shift in market activity: altcoins now dominate spot trading volumes. They account for around 50% of total volume, surpassing both Bitcoin (27%) and Ethereum (23%).
This suggests traders are increasingly rotating into higher-risk assets in search of better short-term returns, while BTC and ETH take a back seat.
Historically, such dominance often reflects speculative appetite and can precede periods of heightened volatility across the altcoin market. 🔥
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🫡 17 Years Since Bitcoin Went Live
On January 10, it marked 17 years since Hal Finney announced the launch of Bitcoin. 🎆
Hal wasn’t just an early supporter — he became the first person in history to receive a BTC transaction, sent directly by Satoshi Nakamoto.
💰 Around that same time, Finney publicly speculated that 1 BTC could one day be worth $10 million. Back in 2009, this sounded almost absurd.
Fast forward to today — with Bitcoin established as a global asset, institutional adoption growing, and scarcity becoming more obvious — imagining such a price no longer feels purely hypothetical.
History reminds us: the boldest ideas often look unrealistic… until they don’t. 🚀
On January 10, it marked 17 years since Hal Finney announced the launch of Bitcoin. 🎆
Hal wasn’t just an early supporter — he became the first person in history to receive a BTC transaction, sent directly by Satoshi Nakamoto.
💰 Around that same time, Finney publicly speculated that 1 BTC could one day be worth $10 million. Back in 2009, this sounded almost absurd.
Fast forward to today — with Bitcoin established as a global asset, institutional adoption growing, and scarcity becoming more obvious — imagining such a price no longer feels purely hypothetical.
History reminds us: the boldest ideas often look unrealistic… until they don’t. 🚀
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❄️ $180M+ in USDT Frozen on Tron
A series of large-scale USDT address freezes has been recorded on the Tron blockchain, with the total amount exceeding $180 million. 🙀
According to reports, the affected wallets may be linked to Iran, although there is no official confirmation so far. If verified, this would align with ongoing regulatory and sanctions-related enforcement in the crypto space.
The situation once again highlights a key risk of centralized stablecoins: issuers retain the ability to freeze funds at the protocol level, especially under legal or political pressure.
Worth keeping an eye on 👀
A series of large-scale USDT address freezes has been recorded on the Tron blockchain, with the total amount exceeding $180 million. 🙀
According to reports, the affected wallets may be linked to Iran, although there is no official confirmation so far. If verified, this would align with ongoing regulatory and sanctions-related enforcement in the crypto space.
The situation once again highlights a key risk of centralized stablecoins: issuers retain the ability to freeze funds at the protocol level, especially under legal or political pressure.
Worth keeping an eye on 👀
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🛠 Reality of Bitcoin Mining Today
A miner shared his current results: running 27 ASIC devices, his monthly revenue is about $4,800 (~0.053 BTC). After electricity and hosting costs, net profit is just over $1,000.
Over 3.5 years, mining delivered returns comparable to simply buying BTC outright. Despite this, he sticks to a mine & hold strategy rather than selling.
His long-term bet is on higher transaction fees and a rise in ASIC hardware prices during the next bull market, which could significantly improve overall profitability. 💵🚀
A miner shared his current results: running 27 ASIC devices, his monthly revenue is about $4,800 (~0.053 BTC). After electricity and hosting costs, net profit is just over $1,000.
Over 3.5 years, mining delivered returns comparable to simply buying BTC outright. Despite this, he sticks to a mine & hold strategy rather than selling.
His long-term bet is on higher transaction fees and a rise in ASIC hardware prices during the next bull market, which could significantly improve overall profitability. 💵🚀
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