💔 The 4-year Bitcoin cycle just broke

For the first time, BTC closed 2025 in the red, officially breaking the classic “3 green yearly candles, 1 red” model that many relied on for cycle timing. 📉

This suggests Bitcoin is maturing into a different market structure, where past patterns are no longer guaranteed to repeat. 🔄

Macro factors, institutional flows, and liquidity conditions now play a much bigger role than simple halving-based narratives. 💰👀

⛽️ In 2025, fee generation across DeFi was led by a familiar trio:

• Meteora
• Jupiter
• Uniswap

💰 Each of these protocols generated over $1B in fees during the year, proving that real usage and sustainable revenue matter more than hype.

DeFi is gradually shifting from experimental yield stories to cash-flow–driven infrastructure — and the protocols with consistent volume are the ones capturing the value. 🚀

😠 Another anomaly pointing to a broken 4-year cycle

Historically, 2017 and 2021 saw strong altseasons, clearly visible in the TOTAL3/BTC ratio. By that logic, 2025 should have followed the same script. 🤷

Instead, we got the fourth consecutive red yearly candle for alts relative to BTC.

➤ No classic altseason
➤ Capital stayed concentrated in Bitcoin
➤ The familiar cycle pattern failed again

The takeaway? The old 4-year model is losing its predictive power.
2026 may play by completely different rules… or at least, that’s the hope 🙏

📊 Strategy’s own annual performance tracker paints a brutal picture

Top performers this year were Google (+66%), Gold (+64%), and NVIDIA (+41%) — steady gains without signs of overheating. Major indices and Big Tech also closed in the green. 🚀

On the other side of the spectrum: BTC (-6%), IBIT (-6%), and especially MSTR (-47%). 👀

The takeaway is clear: the company with the largest Bitcoin exposure underperformed Bitcoin itself. 🤷

Leverage, a high premium to NAV, and expectations that never materialized ended up hurting shareholders more than BTC’s drawdown.

📊 Blockchain activity highlights of 2025

🚀 Solana dominated on-chain activity in 2025, becoming the clear leader by transaction count. Over the year, the network processed more than 121 billion transactions, far ahead of any competitor — a strong signal of massive usage and throughput.

💎 Meanwhile, TON also made it into the top 10 most active blockchains, handling around 839 million transactions in 2025. This confirms its growing role and rising adoption among high-traffic networks.

Overall, the data shows that networks optimized for speed and low fees continue to capture the bulk of on-chain activity. 🔗

🎂 Bitcoin turns 17

📅 On January 3, 2009, the first cryptocurrency was born. That day, the genesis block was mined — the very first block of the Bitcoin blockchain, marking the start of a new financial era.

Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, embedded a hidden message in this block:

“Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” — a headline from The Times referencing government bank bailouts after the 2008 financial crisis. 💵📉

The message was more than symbolism. It highlighted Bitcoin’s core idea: an alternative to the traditional financial system, where governments and central banks rescue institutions at taxpayers’ expense.

The reward for the genesis block was 50 BTC — coins that had no market value at the time. Today, Bitcoin trades near $90,000 and ranks among the top 8 largest assets in the world, behind only gold, silver, and major tech stocks.

From an experiment to a global asset — happy birthday, Bitcoin 🎉₿

🍕 Unusual activity near the Pentagon — again

Pizza places close to the Pentagon are seeing a sharp surge in orders:

▪️Papa John’s (2.3 miles away): +476%
▪️Extreme Pizza (0.5 miles away): +200%

Current DEFCON level: 3/5 — heightened readiness.

Why does this matter? 👀

On the night of January 3, pizza spots near the Pentagon (especially Papa John’s) showed an even bigger spike — up to +769%. Just hours later, the U.S. launched strikes on Venezuelan military targets. 🚀

This informal “Pizza Index” tracks Google Maps congestion at nearby pizzerias and tends to spike when Pentagon staff work late, often during periods of elevated military or geopolitical activity. 🌐

👂Rumors swirl about Venezuela’s “shadow” Bitcoin reserve

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Venezuela may have accumulated a massive off-books crypto reserve — allegedly up to 600,000 BTC. 🙀

According to sources, back in 2018 the regime sold around 73 tons of gold and may have converted the proceeds into Bitcoin to bypass potential freezes by the U.S. Treasury. 💰

It’s also claimed that by late 2025, a large share of oil trade settlements was conducted in USDT, with funds later funneled into BTC as a final store of value.

If true, this would be one of the largest covert state-level Bitcoin positions ever. For now, it remains a rumor — but an intriguing one 👀

📈 Bitcoin hits a 3-week high

🚀 Bitcoin climbed above $93,000, reaching its highest level since December 12. The move came amid rising geopolitical uncertainty following reports of the capture of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces. 🇻🇪🌐

At the moment, BTC is trading around $93.4K, while ETH stands near $3.17K. The broader crypto market also joined the rally, with total market cap rising to $3.15T, up around 6% since January 1. 🔥

Notably, Bitcoin has posted daily gains since the start of the year. Adding fuel to the move, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $471M in net inflows on January 2 — the strongest daily inflow since November — after heavy outflows in December and November. 💵

Risk events + renewed ETF demand = a strong start to the year 🚀

Strategy reported another Bitcoin purchase worth $116.3M, acquiring 1,287 BTC between December 29 and January 5 💰

As of January 5, the company holds 673,783 BTC — over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Since 2020, Strategy has spent roughly $50.5B accumulating BTC at an average price of around $75,000 per coin.

The latest buy was fully financed through the issuance and sale of MSTR shares. Since the start of January, MSTR stock is up about 3%, following a steep 60%+ decline over the previous five months. 🚀

Founder Michael Saylor also revealed an additional $62M added to the company’s cash reserves, bringing total reserves to $2.25B. 💵

Bitmine doubles down on Ethereum staking 💰

🛠 Bitmine continues to expand its Ethereum exposure, staking an additional 186,336 ETH worth roughly $604.5M.

This brings the company’s total staked ETH to 779,488 ETH (about $2.51B). Overall, Bitmine now holds 4,143,502 ETH in reserves, further reinforcing its long-term bet on Ethereum and yield from staking.

📊 Willy Woo: Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Caution

🔎 Analyst Willy Woo believes January could bring a short-term bounce to the crypto market as liquidity returns and a local bottom forms.

However, the longer-term picture looks far less optimistic. The Bitcoin Mempool & Transaction Fees chart remains extremely quiet, signaling weak on-chain activity — a pattern more typical of bear markets than the start of a strong uptrend. 👀

Bottom line: a possible January relief rally, but the underlying network activity still resembles a ghost town 👻📉

🐃 Timothy Peterson: A Rally Could Be Ahead

🕵️‍♂️ Analyst Timothy Peterson expects a crypto market rally in the near term, based on Bitcoin seasonality and repeating cycles. His model compares current BTC price action with the 2022–2023 period and shows almost identical patterns. 🧐

The framework outlines three phases:

• Accumulate — December–January
• Wait — February–March
• Recover — April–June

If history rhymes once again, Bitcoin could enter a strong recovery phase in the coming months, setting the stage for a broader market rally 📈

In Canada, heat from Bitcoin mining to grow tomatoes 🍅

Instead of wasting excess energy, liquid-cooled mining servers capture heat and recycle it into a greenhouse heating system in Manitoba. 🇨🇦

Around 90% of the electricity consumed by the miners is expected to be converted into usable heat, helping warm water for greenhouse boilers and support year-round tomato production.

The project highlights a growing trend: Bitcoin mining as dual-purpose infrastructure, where hash power not only secures the network but also heats homes, greenhouses, and industrial facilities 🌱♻️

🔮 Prediction Markets Hit a New All-Time High

In December, the total volume of the prediction markets reached $19.1B, setting a new all-time record and beating the previous peak by ~35%. 📈

The top platforms by monthly trading volume:

• Kalshi — $7B
• Opinion — $6.7B
• Polymarket — $5.3B

The surge highlights growing interest in betting on real-world events and macro outcomes, as prediction markets continue to attract both retail users and larger capital looking for alternative ways to express market views. 🧐

🔥 The validator exit queue on Ethereum has dropped to zero for the first time since July 2025, meaning validators can now exit within minutes instead of waiting days.

At the same time, more than 1.3 million ETH is waiting in the staking entry queue, the highest level since mid-November. 📉

This shows growing demand to stake ETH while selling pressure from exiting validators has eased.

Such a setup is often viewed as bullish for ETH: fewer validators rushing to exit, more ETH being locked into staking, and reduced liquid supply on the market. 🚀

🤔 Bloomberg: Bitcoin ETFs could see massive inflows in 2026

🔎 Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas expects $50–70B to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 if BTC rises to the $130k–140k range.

The momentum is already visible: in the first two trading days of the year, net inflows reached $1.2B, which annualizes to roughly $150B.

Even under a weak market scenario, ETF inflows could still hit around $22B. If macro conditions improve, demand for Bitcoin ETFs may accelerate significantly — reinforcing their role as a major gateway for institutional capital into BTC. 💰

🐳 Whales didn’t sleep in 2025

The 21 largest Bitcoin holders massively increased their positions last year, accumulating BTC worth around $40 billion in total. 💰

While retail was panicking, trading noise, or waiting for “confirmation,” big players were quietly stacking. No hype, no emotions — just long-term conviction.

📉 Bitcoin may skip a new ATH in 2026

🔎 New research suggests Bitcoin is unlikely to set a new all-time high in 2026, despite short-term bullish signals. Analysts note a clear contrast: while lower timeframes show attempts at recovery, bears still control higher timeframes.

📊 A potential golden cross on the daily chart (21/50 SMA) could spark a short-term rally, but it doesn’t invalidate multiple long-term “short” signals. According to Material Indicators, BTC is likely to retest the yearly open near $87,500, with whales seemingly pushing for a deeper support test.

On higher timeframes, conditions remain fragile. Without weekly closes above the 50-week SMA (~$101,500) and stronger RSI readings, both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain at critical inflection points.

Bottom line: short-term volatility and bounces are possible, but a new ATH may have to wait until 2027. 🤷

😳 Zcash governance drama: team walks away to stay independent

⚡️A major governance split has hit Zcash ($ZEC). The CEO of Electric Coin Company (ECC) stated that Bootstrap, the nonprofit overseeing Zcash development, has drifted away from the project’s original mission.

As a result:

➥ The entire Zcash development team has left ECC
➥ Developers are forming a new company to continue maintaining and building Zcash
➥ The Zcash protocol itself is unaffected — the network is running normally

In simple terms, the dev team chose to exit under Bootstrap’s control to preserve independence and keep developing the privacy-focused coin without external pressure. 🧐

ECC has been responsible for Zcash development since launch, while Bootstrap controlled governance, budgets, and team conditions.
This marks a major shift in who steers Zcash’s future — but not a disruption to the chain itself. 🔗🚀

🇧🇷 Brazilian presidential hopeful wants a national Bitcoin reserve

Brazilian political activist and presidential candidate Renan Santos, founder of the Mission Party, says Brazil should create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, calling the idea “feasible” and pointing to El Salvador as an example. 🇸🇻🧐

Santos claims Bitcoin is already part of his election manifesto and believes blockchain can be used by the public sector to fight corruption and reduce embezzlement. He argues that more countries are moving toward BTC reserves and that Brazil shouldn’t be left behind.

Interest in Bitcoin at the state level is growing: Brazilian lawmakers previously held hearings on BTC reserves, and draft bills have proposed adding Bitcoin and other “secure” cryptocurrencies to the treasury. 💵

With elections set for October 4, Santos positions himself as a “Brazilian Bukele,” pushing pro-Bitcoin, pro-sovereignty policies — while controversy continues to follow his bold views.

Brazil stacking sats next? 👀