📈 Halving Cycles Broken? Experts Expect Bitcoin Growth in 2026
Both Grayscale and Bitwise claim the traditional four-year BTC cycle is shifting. While Bitcoin still follows the halving rhythm, analysts no longer expect a long bear market. Instead, they predict continued growth into 2026. 🚀
Historically, BTC rallies after halving, then enters a prolonged bearish phase. In this cycle (halving in April 2024), Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $126K exactly in line with past timing — yet the structure appears different. 🧐
Why the old model is breaking:
▪️ Institutions replaced miners — demand from ETFs and corporates is 7× stronger than halving supply cuts.
▪️ No bubble signs — growth has been steady, without the parabolic spikes of past cycles.
▪️ Macro influence — BTC now reacts to global economics; expected Fed easing in 6–9 months may support the trend.
Analysts say the cycle isn’t over — 2026 could bring another leg up. 👀📈
Both Grayscale and Bitwise claim the traditional four-year BTC cycle is shifting. While Bitcoin still follows the halving rhythm, analysts no longer expect a long bear market. Instead, they predict continued growth into 2026. 🚀
Historically, BTC rallies after halving, then enters a prolonged bearish phase. In this cycle (halving in April 2024), Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $126K exactly in line with past timing — yet the structure appears different. 🧐
Why the old model is breaking:
▪️ Institutions replaced miners — demand from ETFs and corporates is 7× stronger than halving supply cuts.
▪️ No bubble signs — growth has been steady, without the parabolic spikes of past cycles.
▪️ Macro influence — BTC now reacts to global economics; expected Fed easing in 6–9 months may support the trend.
Analysts say the cycle isn’t over — 2026 could bring another leg up. 👀📈
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🛠 Bitcoin Miners Face the Toughest Margins in History
With BTC’s price drop, the hashprice has fallen to a structural low of $35 per PH/s, while the median cost of production sits around $44 per PH/s.
Even miners with efficient hardware and cheap electricity are now hovering near break-even.
The payback period for the latest-generation rigs has surged to over 1000 days — a stark contrast to the 3–6 months typical during the 2017 bull run. 😳
The mining sector is entering one of its most challenging phases ever.
With BTC’s price drop, the hashprice has fallen to a structural low of $35 per PH/s, while the median cost of production sits around $44 per PH/s.
Even miners with efficient hardware and cheap electricity are now hovering near break-even.
The payback period for the latest-generation rigs has surged to over 1000 days — a stark contrast to the 3–6 months typical during the 2017 bull run. 😳
The mining sector is entering one of its most challenging phases ever.
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🐻 Another Bear Calls for a Drop to $50K
🔎 Bloomberg’s senior strategist Mike McGlone believes Bitcoin could fall to $50,000, noting the asset is strongly overbought relative to gold.
📉 Lower volatility in the stock market is also supporting the current correction.
Both bull and bear camps are growing — and the tension is rising. Who will be right this time? 🤨
🔎 Bloomberg’s senior strategist Mike McGlone believes Bitcoin could fall to $50,000, noting the asset is strongly overbought relative to gold.
📉 Lower volatility in the stock market is also supporting the current correction.
Both bull and bear camps are growing — and the tension is rising. Who will be right this time? 🤨
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🔨 2010 Bitcoin Miner Moves “Sleeping” Coins
A Bitcoin miner from 2010 just moved 50 BTC mined in the early days — coins that have since increased in value by 21.65 million times (~2.165 billion %)! 🙀
These 50 BTC were originally mined in March 2010 for a single block, when Bitcoin was worth only $0.004 — making their initial value around $0.20. 💪
On Dec 2, 2025, the coins were transferred to five new addresses, now valued at roughly $4.33 million. 💰
A rare glimpse into early Bitcoin history and the incredible long-term gains of holding since the Satoshi era. 👀
A Bitcoin miner from 2010 just moved 50 BTC mined in the early days — coins that have since increased in value by 21.65 million times (~2.165 billion %)! 🙀
These 50 BTC were originally mined in March 2010 for a single block, when Bitcoin was worth only $0.004 — making their initial value around $0.20. 💪
On Dec 2, 2025, the coins were transferred to five new addresses, now valued at roughly $4.33 million. 💰
A rare glimpse into early Bitcoin history and the incredible long-term gains of holding since the Satoshi era. 👀
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🚀 Crypto Market Rebounds: Bitcoin Back Above $93K
Bitcoin has surged past $93,000, while Ethereum is trading above $3,050 as the market fully recovers from the December 1 dip, when BTC briefly fell below $84K.
💰 Total crypto market cap has climbed back to $3.15 trillion.
The sharp rebound triggered massive liquidations:
• 123,000+ traders liquidated
• Total losses: $492M
• Short-sellers took the biggest hit — over $310M wiped out on BTC and ETH alone
The market bounces back fast — and punishes the bears even faster.
Bitcoin has surged past $93,000, while Ethereum is trading above $3,050 as the market fully recovers from the December 1 dip, when BTC briefly fell below $84K.
💰 Total crypto market cap has climbed back to $3.15 trillion.
The sharp rebound triggered massive liquidations:
• 123,000+ traders liquidated
• Total losses: $492M
• Short-sellers took the biggest hit — over $310M wiped out on BTC and ETH alone
The market bounces back fast — and punishes the bears even faster.
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🛠 Bitcoin mining is getting pricier
According to the latest CoinShares report, the average cost to mine 1 BTC for public miners in Q2 2025 climbed to ~$74,600. 🧐
But if you include non-cash expenses — depreciation and stock-based compensation — the total average cost jumps to ~$137,800 per BTC. 😳
Rising costs highlight growing pressure on miners as profitability tightens, especially with BTC consolidating and competition increasing. 📊
According to the latest CoinShares report, the average cost to mine 1 BTC for public miners in Q2 2025 climbed to ~$74,600. 🧐
But if you include non-cash expenses — depreciation and stock-based compensation — the total average cost jumps to ~$137,800 per BTC. 😳
Rising costs highlight growing pressure on miners as profitability tightens, especially with BTC consolidating and competition increasing. 📊
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📊 BTC buy/sell ratio hits highest level since Jan 2023
The BTC buy-to-sell ratio across all exchanges jumped to 1.17 yesterday — the highest reading since early 2023. This signals a clear dominance of buyers in the market. 🧐
Historically, such spikes suggest that the current bull cycle is unlikely to be ending soon, although market risks remain in place.
The BTC buy-to-sell ratio across all exchanges jumped to 1.17 yesterday — the highest reading since early 2023. This signals a clear dominance of buyers in the market. 🧐
Historically, such spikes suggest that the current bull cycle is unlikely to be ending soon, although market risks remain in place.
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🔥 Vanguard Effect hits Bitcoin
Eric Balchunas notes a powerful “Vanguard Effect”: Bitcoin surged right as U.S. markets opened — on the first day Vanguard allowed its clients to buy crypto ETFs.
The investment giant listed ETFs for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, LTC and others on its platform. Trading exploded instantly: IBIT (BlackRock’s BTC ETF) crossed $1B volume in the first 30 minutes of the U.S. session. 🚀💵
Balchunas joked:
Vanguard manages over $11 trillion in assets — and its entry is already moving the market. 💰
Eric Balchunas notes a powerful “Vanguard Effect”: Bitcoin surged right as U.S. markets opened — on the first day Vanguard allowed its clients to buy crypto ETFs.
The investment giant listed ETFs for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, LTC and others on its platform. Trading exploded instantly: IBIT (BlackRock’s BTC ETF) crossed $1B volume in the first 30 minutes of the U.S. session. 🚀💵
Balchunas joked:
"I knew those Vanguardians had a little degen in them, even some of the most conservative investors like to add a little hot sauce to their portfolio."
Vanguard manages over $11 trillion in assets — and its entry is already moving the market. 💰
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📉 American Bitcoin stock collapses 50% in a month
📊 Shares of American Bitcoin have dropped more than 50% over the past month as early investors rushed to exit following the end of their lock-up period.
Even high-profile PR — including Eric Trump’s tours of the company’s mining facilities — failed to stop the sell-off. 🤷
📊 Shares of American Bitcoin have dropped more than 50% over the past month as early investors rushed to exit following the end of their lock-up period.
Even high-profile PR — including Eric Trump’s tours of the company’s mining facilities — failed to stop the sell-off. 🤷
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🔼 Bitcoin’s fair value estimated at $165K
🔎 A new analysis comparing BTC’s price to global liquidity suggests Bitcoin could be fairly valued around $165,000.
Just recently, the market offered a chance to buy around $80K — potentially a 2x upside if BTC realigns with liquidity trends. 📈💵
Maybe that was the last big opportunity? 😉
🔎 A new analysis comparing BTC’s price to global liquidity suggests Bitcoin could be fairly valued around $165,000.
Just recently, the market offered a chance to buy around $80K — potentially a 2x upside if BTC realigns with liquidity trends. 📈💵
Maybe that was the last big opportunity? 😉
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🎲 Binance launches Binance Junior — accounts for kids and teens
Binance has introduced Binance Junior, a parent-controlled app and sub-account designed for users aged 6 to 17. 👦
Parents manage permissions, while teens can access a simplified interface and make payments via Binance Pay (where available). 💵
Binance has introduced Binance Junior, a parent-controlled app and sub-account designed for users aged 6 to 17. 👦
Parents manage permissions, while teens can access a simplified interface and make payments via Binance Pay (where available). 💵
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😬 Did Jim Cramer just curse Saylor?
Cramer compared Michael Saylor to the “Malcolm X of Bitcoin,” saying he’ll do whatever it takes to defeat short-sellers.
Given Cramer’s legendary “inverse effect,” the crypto community instantly started discussing:
Is this the beginning of the end for Bitcoin? 🤔😭
Cramer compared Michael Saylor to the “Malcolm X of Bitcoin,” saying he’ll do whatever it takes to defeat short-sellers.
Given Cramer’s legendary “inverse effect,” the crypto community instantly started discussing:
Is this the beginning of the end for Bitcoin? 🤔😭
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❄️ Strategy is preparing for a potential “crypto winter”
🔎 Analysts at CryptoQuant believe Michael Saylor’s company is getting ready for a bear market. Strategy has begun building a USD reserve to cover debt obligations over the next two years — currently $1.4B, with plans to increase it. 💵
Experts note that a 24-month cash buffer signals the company sees a real risk of Bitcoin entering a prolonged sideways phase or deeper decline. 👀
This shift may have major market implications:
▪️Lower BTC purchases from Strategy could weaken a key source of demand that fueled previous bull cycles.
▪️But the USD reserve also reduces the chance of forced BTC selling during stress, which ultimately supports long-term market stability.
🔎 Analysts at CryptoQuant believe Michael Saylor’s company is getting ready for a bear market. Strategy has begun building a USD reserve to cover debt obligations over the next two years — currently $1.4B, with plans to increase it. 💵
Experts note that a 24-month cash buffer signals the company sees a real risk of Bitcoin entering a prolonged sideways phase or deeper decline. 👀
This shift may have major market implications:
▪️Lower BTC purchases from Strategy could weaken a key source of demand that fueled previous bull cycles.
▪️But the USD reserve also reduces the chance of forced BTC selling during stress, which ultimately supports long-term market stability.
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📊 Bitwise: Corporate ETH treasuries are collapsing
According to Bitwise, companies bought only 370,000 ETH in November (~$1.1B) — an 81% drop from the August peak. 🧐
The corporate treasury model is rapidly losing strength: premiums are shrinking, demand is fading, and smaller firms are entering a “death spiral”, losing access to capital and the ability to keep accumulating ETH.
A worrying signal for the corporate ETH narrative — pressure i clearly building. 🧱
According to Bitwise, companies bought only 370,000 ETH in November (~$1.1B) — an 81% drop from the August peak. 🧐
The corporate treasury model is rapidly losing strength: premiums are shrinking, demand is fading, and smaller firms are entering a “death spiral”, losing access to capital and the ability to keep accumulating ETH.
A worrying signal for the corporate ETH narrative — pressure i clearly building. 🧱
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🦋 CryptoQuant CEO: A 2022-style Bitcoin crash is unlikely
According to CryptoQuant’s CEO, if Strategy keeps holding its 650,000 BTC (~$60B) this cycle — or sells only a small portion — the market is unlikely to see another -65% Bitcoin drawdown like in 2022. 📉
BTC is currently about 25% below its ATH, and even if a bear phase begins, the decline will likely be much milder, resembling a broad sideways range rather than a deep collapse.
His message to long-term holders: avoid panic selling. Bitcoin now has stronger liquidity channels and far better structural support than in past cycles. 🤔
According to CryptoQuant’s CEO, if Strategy keeps holding its 650,000 BTC (~$60B) this cycle — or sells only a small portion — the market is unlikely to see another -65% Bitcoin drawdown like in 2022. 📉
BTC is currently about 25% below its ATH, and even if a bear phase begins, the decline will likely be much milder, resembling a broad sideways range rather than a deep collapse.
His message to long-term holders: avoid panic selling. Bitcoin now has stronger liquidity channels and far better structural support than in past cycles. 🤔
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📱 Major Security Flaw Found in Popular Android Chip — Solana Phones at Risk
Ledger researchers have demonstrated a critical exploit in the MediaTek Dimensity 7300 chip — the same one used in Solana Seeker smartphones.
⚡️ Using an electromagnetic attack, they gained full control of the device, and the flaw lies in the boot ROM, meaning it cannot be patched.
Key points:
• The vulnerability is baked into the silicon — no software fix is possible.
• Attackers can escalate privileges to the highest level.
• Solana Seeker phones inherit the same hardware-level flaw.
• Storing private keys on such devices is unsafe.
• Ledger stresses that only secure-element hardware wallets protect against this class of attacks.
A serious reminder: if your phone uses Dimensity 7300, it should not be your crypto storage device. 🤷
Ledger researchers have demonstrated a critical exploit in the MediaTek Dimensity 7300 chip — the same one used in Solana Seeker smartphones.
⚡️ Using an electromagnetic attack, they gained full control of the device, and the flaw lies in the boot ROM, meaning it cannot be patched.
Key points:
• The vulnerability is baked into the silicon — no software fix is possible.
• Attackers can escalate privileges to the highest level.
• Solana Seeker phones inherit the same hardware-level flaw.
• Storing private keys on such devices is unsafe.
• Ledger stresses that only secure-element hardware wallets protect against this class of attacks.
A serious reminder: if your phone uses Dimensity 7300, it should not be your crypto storage device. 🤷
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🇺🇸 BlackRock: U.S. Debt Growth Could Spark a Crypto Bull Run
BlackRock predicts that the rising U.S. national debt — potentially hitting $50T by 2035 — will drive crypto gains over the next decade, as a weakening dollar increases demand for Bitcoin as a store of value.
💡 The booming AI sector requires massive investments in energy and infrastructure, funded through the expanding deficit.
With spot ETFs making institutional entry easier, cryptocurrencies are shifting from speculation to a legitimate hedge against debt and the new AI-driven economy.
Bottom line: Crypto is becoming a natural response to rising debt and economic transformation.
BlackRock predicts that the rising U.S. national debt — potentially hitting $50T by 2035 — will drive crypto gains over the next decade, as a weakening dollar increases demand for Bitcoin as a store of value.
💡 The booming AI sector requires massive investments in energy and infrastructure, funded through the expanding deficit.
With spot ETFs making institutional entry easier, cryptocurrencies are shifting from speculation to a legitimate hedge against debt and the new AI-driven economy.
Bottom line: Crypto is becoming a natural response to rising debt and economic transformation.
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📈 Ripple CEO: Bitcoin could hit $180K by 2026
Key points from the interview:
• Macro & cycles: Strong tailwinds and U.S. regulatory clarity are boosting crypto; institutions are just starting to enter.
• ETF demand: Crypto ETFs are in early days — Ripple’s ETF saw $700M+ inflows recently, and institutional adoption is accelerating.
• Stablecoins: Investors prefer stablecoins in risk-off periods; Ripple’s stablecoin already surpassed $1B market cap.
Bullish outlook: BTC could surge as regulation, macro support, and institutional flows align.
Key points from the interview:
• Macro & cycles: Strong tailwinds and U.S. regulatory clarity are boosting crypto; institutions are just starting to enter.
• ETF demand: Crypto ETFs are in early days — Ripple’s ETF saw $700M+ inflows recently, and institutional adoption is accelerating.
• Stablecoins: Investors prefer stablecoins in risk-off periods; Ripple’s stablecoin already surpassed $1B market cap.
Bullish outlook: BTC could surge as regulation, macro support, and institutional flows align.
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🥊 Peter Schiff vs CZ: The Bitcoin vs Tokenized Gold Debate
At Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Peter Schiff and CZ went head-to-head in a debate about Bitcoin vs tokenized gold. Before the event, Schiff even posted a cartoon video showing him and CZ fighting — CZ using Bitcoin, Schiff using a gold bar. 🥋
But on stage things flipped: CZ “knocked him out” by demonstrating a fake gold bar, making his point clear —
“No proof of work — no value.” 🤷
Bottom line: the debate highlighted how, in today’s market, digitally verifiable value can outweigh physical gold, especially when gold can be counterfeited.
At Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Peter Schiff and CZ went head-to-head in a debate about Bitcoin vs tokenized gold. Before the event, Schiff even posted a cartoon video showing him and CZ fighting — CZ using Bitcoin, Schiff using a gold bar. 🥋
But on stage things flipped: CZ “knocked him out” by demonstrating a fake gold bar, making his point clear —
“No proof of work — no value.” 🤷
Bottom line: the debate highlighted how, in today’s market, digitally verifiable value can outweigh physical gold, especially when gold can be counterfeited.
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😳 Japan’s sovereign debt is on the edge
🇯🇵 Japan’s 10-year bond yield has jumped from –0.28% to 1.92% since 2019 — the highest since 2007. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 215%, and it just launched a $135B stimulus package.
Markets now expect an 80% chance that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again on December 19. Such a move could trigger a carry-trade unwind, potentially causing global shockwaves.
While everyone watches the Fed’s decision on December 10, the real financial time bomb may be Japan.
Remember: on August 5, 2024, BTC briefly crashed below $50k during a carry-trade panic 😩
🇯🇵 Japan’s 10-year bond yield has jumped from –0.28% to 1.92% since 2019 — the highest since 2007. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 215%, and it just launched a $135B stimulus package.
Markets now expect an 80% chance that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again on December 19. Such a move could trigger a carry-trade unwind, potentially causing global shockwaves.
While everyone watches the Fed’s decision on December 10, the real financial time bomb may be Japan.
Remember: on August 5, 2024, BTC briefly crashed below $50k during a carry-trade panic 😩
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