#China’s June #PMI was a bit like that glass of champagne at a frat party—it looks bubbly, but the room’s still a mess. Manufacturing production perked up and demand expanded for the first time in three months—cheers to that! But don’t get too carried away (or end up hugging the porcelain bowl), because employment is still shrivelling and business confidence is down in the dumps—the weakest since Beijing’s big growth pep talk last September.

With the U.S.–China #tariff truce expiring in mid‑August, that glass of optimism might evaporate faster than a cold brew on a hot day. Sure, Beijing cranked up construction, signalling support for the economy, but any real stimulus is apparently being saved for late Q3—just in time to either calm nerves or go off-script entirely if trade tensions choke again.