As the prospective new Fed chair prepares for the usual ritual on Capitol Hill—where the Empire’s finest nod thoughtfully before rubber-stamping the next “Central Banker In Chief”—Wall Street’s ever-imaginative EYIs are once again pricing in rate cuts, confidently declaring that the worst of the Persian detour is behind us. Meanwhile, the same institutions that missed the last few “transitory” episodes are back to selling serenity, even as the ripple effects are only just getting started. The reality?
The Federal Reserve appears less like a pilot and more like a polite co-passenger, gradually handing the controls to the bond market—its credibility last seen somewhere above the Strait of Hormuz, gliding downward in what can only be described as a soft landing… minus the runway.
🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵
🌐 Confidence is the invisible currency of civilization—when it cracks, everything reprices. Learn to master it and ride the flow of trust before it moves. 🌐
Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-confidence-cycle-game-mastering
🌐 Confidence is the invisible currency of civilization—when it cracks, everything reprices. Learn to master it and ride the flow of trust before it moves. 🌐
Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-confidence-cycle-game-mastering
Substack
The Confidence Cycle Game: Mastering the Flow of Trust
Confidence is the invisible currency of civilization—when it cracks, everything reprices. Learn to master it and ride the flow of trust before it moves.
While the Strait of Hormuz was triumphantly declared “reopened”—despite never quite being closed for those still willing to trade—actual traffic on the ground has remained, at best, underwhelming. Apparently, reopening a corridor is one thing; convincing participants that it’s business as usual is another.
With attention still fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, the next “freedom of navigation” spectacle is quietly unfolding in the Taiwan Strait, where Japan helpfully demonstrated its allegiance to the US Empire by sending a destroyer through waters Beijing considers its own. China, in turn, dutifully “monitored” the situation—because nothing says de-escalation like tracking every حرکت in real time. In this increasingly well-scripted maritime theatre, each side insists on stability while carefully rehearsing the next act of tension.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-calls-passage-japanese-warship-through-taiwan-strait-provocation-2026-04-17/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-calls-passage-japanese-warship-through-taiwan-strait-provocation-2026-04-17/
The Macro Butler
While victory narratives still echo loudly, reality appears to be drafting a different script: with conflicts spanning from the Russia–Ukraine front to the Gulf, the global system is edging deeper into a war-cycle footing—now extending beyond battlefields…
After floating the idea of turning Detroit into a wartime assembly line—because apparently it’s 1942 again—the ever-vigilant China hawk Commerce Secretary decided that Chinese investment in the U.S. auto industry is where he draws the line. Asked whether BYD Co. might set up shop in America, his detailed strategic response was simply: “no.” Clarifications followed— “not cars, not cars”—lest anyone miss the nuance. This, of course, comes as U.S.–China talks politely gesture toward “investment cooperation,” while U.S. officials simultaneously make clear that such cooperation will involve… no actual investment.
Meanwhile, even as Donald Copperfield flirts with the idea of welcoming Chinese factories on American soil, the broader message remains perfectly consistent: global capital is welcome—just not from the world’s reigning Master of Manufacturing.
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Those who are pulling Donnie's strings remain unnamed, because in a well-ordered system, power is most effective when it is everywhere—and nowhere at once.
The Macro Butler
While the Strait of Hormuz was triumphantly declared “reopened”—despite never quite being closed for those still willing to trade—actual traffic on the ground has remained, at best, underwhelming. Apparently, reopening a corridor is one thing; convincing participants…
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
It doesn't really look like the Strait has reopened (Saturday April 18, 2026 1.00 PM HK Time)
Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.
https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-confidence-cycle-game-mastering-623
https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-confidence-cycle-game-mastering-623
The Macro Butler
In a move that surprises absolutely no one, Uncle Scrooge Bessent dusted off the well-worn “maximum pressure” script, warning China and anyone else still buying Iranian oil that sanctions are coming—again. With the Empire now enforcing a maritime blockade…
In a masterclass of sanctions diplomacy that would make even the most seasoned diplomat reach for the aspirin, Treasury Secretary Scrooge — having declared with considerable conviction on Wednesday that the Russian oil sanctions waiver would absolutely not be extended — announced on Friday that it would be extended for another month. The reversal, executed in approximately 48 hours, coincided with the Manipulator-in-Chief bragging that the Strait of Hormuz was open for business, oil flowing again, and Asian nations apparently communicating their energy distress with sufficient urgency to override whatever principle Uncle Scrooge had been expressing on Wednesday.
https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935526/download?inline
https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935526/download?inline
General License 134B, issued with the bureaucratic elegance of an institution that has just changed its mind in public, authorises Russian crude transactions through May 16th — because as the Treasury spokesperson explained with magnificent understatement, "Treasury wants to ensure oil is available to those who need it," a statement that could have been made at any point during the past three years of sanctions but was apparently only discovered on a Friday afternoon.
The recent decline in oil prices is presented by the Ministry of Victory as evidence of successful diplomacy rather than evidence that six weeks of $120 oil was entirely self-inflicted. Uncle Scrooge’s Wednesday position lasted two days. The waiver lasts thirty. The credibility gap, one notes, is widening faster than either.
From inside the Empire, special greetings, comrades of the glorious People's Republic of New York! Mayor Comrade Mamdani, that fearless vanguard of municipal socialism, has announced the city's first state-owned grocery store in East Harlem — a beacon of collective nourishment that will require a mere $30 million in taxpayer funding to construct 9,000 square feet of retail space, implying a construction cost of $3,000 per square foot. For context, the capitalist running dogs of the private grocery industry typically build at a fraction of that cost, but efficiency is a bourgeois concept, and the revolution does not negotiate with spreadsheets. The store will be structurally less efficient than every private supermarket it competes with, staffed by the same municipal apparatus that brought New York its subway system, and funded by the same taxpayers who were assured it would not cost them anything until it cost them $30 million.
❤3
Comrade Mamdani's grocery store will sell vegetables at the people's price, subsidised by the people's money, in a building that cost the people three times what it should have. From each according to his tax bill. To each according to his approved produce selection.
In another display of unwavering devotion to the Holy Land, the self-appointed Warmonger In Chief took to Truth Social to proclaim his enduring love for the Zionist agenda, delivering yet another sermon to the faithful—one that, coincidentally, seems to come with a rather earthly price tag for the average citizen back home.
👍1
While still busy exporting “peace” the hard way, The Malthusian in Chief has now turned healer-in-chief, signing an executive order to fast-track psychedelic drugs—from ibogaine to psilocybin—into the mainstream as the latest cure for America’s mental health crisis. With $50 million in funding, FDA fast lanes, and a “Right to Try” pathway, the initiative is framed as a breakthrough for veterans and treatment-resistant patients—because nothing says policy consistency quite like moving from Operation Warp Speed to a federally endorsed trip, all in the name of saving lives, this time with fewer needles and more hallucinations.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/accelerating-medical-treatments-for-serious-mental-illness/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/accelerating-medical-treatments-for-serious-mental-illness/
👍1
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
For a conflict that isn’t even called a war, the grand maestro of executive decrees has already dropped his chart-topper— “We Will Block You”—and, judging by the encore of new orders, it’s set to dominate the policy charts for quite a while.
🤮2
The Macro Butler
In another display of unwavering devotion to the Holy Land, the self-appointed Warmonger In Chief took to Truth Social to proclaim his enduring love for the Zionist agenda, delivering yet another sermon to the faithful—one that, coincidentally, seems to come…
For those still persuaded that the Empire governs itself, a glance at AIPAC reveals a more orderly truth: all colors in the political spectrum are harmonized through approved channels of Israelian influence. Red or blue, the script remains consistent, the actors interchangeable. Funding flows are not secrets—they are simply rendered invisible through normalization.
https://www.trackaipac.com/trump
https://www.trackaipac.com/trump
In such a system, confidence has already collapsed. And reform is not a rupture, but a carefully supervised renewal—where change is permitted, so long as the people of the Empire chase its corrupt plutocrats from power by force.