- Trump warned Iran not to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump posted that if mines are laid for any reason and not removed, Iran will face unprecedented military consequences. He said the U.S. has struck and completely destroyed 10 inactive mine-laying vessels and there will be more actions. The IRGC said Iran will not allow any oil to leave the Middle East until U.S.-Israel strikes stop.
- Bloomberg: The Middle East is facing severe oil outages. Saudi output is down 2.0–2.5m bpd, Iraq down ~2.9m bpd, the UAE down 0.5–0.8m bpd, and Kuwait down ~0.5m bpd. Combined, the four countries have cut up to 6.7m bpd—about one-third of their capacity and roughly 6% of global supply. Iraq has been hit hardest, with output down nearly 60%.
- The IEA proposed its largest-ever strategic oil release, exceeding the scale used during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The proposal was raised at an emergency meeting of energy officials from the IEA’s 32 member countries on Tuesday, with a decision expected Wednesday.

📘Bloomberg: Cliffwater LLC’s flagship private credit fund may face redemption requests above 7%, becoming the latest institution hit by the private credit redemption wave. Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund manages about $33bn and is an interval fund. Investor withdrawals are being driven by concerns about loan quality and exposure to software companies that could be disrupted by AI. Under the rules, if quarterly redemption requests reach 5%, the fund must pay out 5%; if requests exceed 5%, Cliffwater can raise the payout cap to 7%.

📘Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh met with Sen. Thom Tillis to discuss his nomination, but there was no clear progress. Tillis called the meeting “good” and praised Warsh’s mindset, but reiterated he will block any Fed nominations from advancing in the Senate Banking Committee until the DOJ completes its investigation into Fed Chair Powell. Tillis’ vote is pivotal—without his support, Warsh may not have enough votes to move forward.

📘China customs released Jan–Feb trade data:
- Jan–Feb exports (USD) +21.8% y/y, prior +6.6%.
- Jan–Feb imports (USD) +19.8% y/y, prior +5.7%.
- Jan–Feb trade surplus $213.62bn, prior surplus $114.14bn; Nov–Dec 2025 was $225.67bn.

✍️Comment: Jan–Feb export growth jumped sharply vs. December, reflecting strong exports, mainly due to a low base in Feb 2025, a later Lunar New Year that pulled deliveries forward ahead of the holiday, and a global recovery. In Jan–Feb 2025, tariff disruptions under Trump kept export growth at just 2.3%, the low for the year, creating a low-base effect. External demand also looks constructive, consistent with global PMI signals—helped by the global manufacturing cycle, U.S./Europe restocking, and an AI compute-driven demand surge. Looking ahead, U.S. tariff developments appear relatively favorable for China, with the overall rate expected to fall by about 5%, but Middle East volatility is a negative shock. With a higher base in March last year, growth may cool, but China’s full-year exports still look strong.

📅Key Event Reminders (ET）

- 7:30 AM (Wed): U.S. Feb CPI (y/y est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%; m/m est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; core CPI y/y est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%; core CPI m/m est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%).
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🔥SoSoValue Daily Crypto Hot News｜Mar 11, 2025

1/ After Aave governance controversy, founder Stani Kulechov calls for streamlining DAO decision-making processes – source
2/ Bloomberg: Hong Kong Family Offices Plan to Increase Exposure to Crypto Assets and Private Market Investments – source
3/ Foreign media: Tencent is developing a brand new AI intelligent agent for its WeChat application. – source
4/ Jito Foundation Acquires SolanaFloor, a Solana Ecosystem Data and Media Platform – source
5/ Polymarket collaborates with Palantir, backed by Peter Thiel, to develop an AI-powered monitoring tool for sports prediction markets. – source
6/ Kraken's tokenized stock venue starts points program, hinting at possible ecosystem token – source
7/ U.S. CFTC Chair: Blockchain-based prediction markets can become "truth machines," and clear regulatory rules are imminent. – source
8/ US court denies Kalshi's request for a temporary restraining order, stating that Congress did not intend to exclude the application of state gambling laws. – source
9/ An ABA survey shows that consumers tend to support limiting stablecoin yields to reduce financial risks. – source
10/ Musk: X Money early public access version will launch next month. – source

🤖 Source｜ SoSo Value 24H Hot News
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📣 Thursday 3/12/2025, Macro Newsletter

📈 Market Performance

📘U.S. Markets Mixed:
- Dow -0.61%, Nasdaq +0.08%, S&P 500 -0.08%, Russell 2000 -0.20%.
- U.S. 2Y +5.85bps to 3.6485%, U.S. 10Y +7.20bps to 4.2296%.
- DXY +0.32% to 99.2622.
- VIX -2.81% to 24.23.
- Brent +6.63% to 93.63, spot gold -0.14% to 5182.875.

📘Chinese ADRs Mixed:
- USD/CNH -47bps to 6.8766. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index -0.77%, PDD -1.83%, BABA -0.41%, JD +1.37%, NTES -2.11%, LI +2.98%, XPEV +2.23%, NIO -4.04%.

📘European Markets Broadly Lower:
- FTSE 100 -0.56%, CAC 40 -0.19%, DAX -1.37%. EUR/USD -0.36% to 1.1567.

📘Asia (ex-China) & EM Mixed:
- Nikkei 225 +1.43%, KOSPI +1.40%, India SENSEX 30 -1.72%, Indonesia JCI -0.69%, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index +3.08%, Mexico MXX +0.24%.

📍📍Key Focus

📘U.S.-Iran update: The situation is still getting more complex. 1) On diplomacy, Trump continues to TACO, signaling a fairly strong desire for a ceasefire, but Israel clearly wants the war to continue, and that gap still needs to be bridged. Iran’s president has laid out three conditions to end the war, which clearly require third-party guarantees from countries like China/Russia, making coordination difficult; a near-term halt to strikes looks unlikely. 2) On oil, the IRGC continues tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz, struck commercial vessels on Wednesday, and is rumored to have laid mines, further complicating the picture. Even if the IEA agrees to the largest-ever SPR release, oil is still rising; if the blockade persists, prices could break above $100 again.
- Trump continues to TACO, saying there are almost no targets left to hit inside Iran and that U.S. military operations are nearing an end. But U.S. and Israeli officials said they have not received any internal instruction to stop operations. U.S. Central Command warned it may strike Iranian civilian ports. An Iranian armed forces spokesperson said if its ports are threatened, Iran will strike all ports and terminals in the region.
- Israeli Defense Minister Katz said Wednesday the war will continue “indefinitely until we achieve all objectives and win a decisive victory.” In a closed-door briefing, FM Gideon Sa’ar refused to set a timeline, saying the war is not close to ending. Israel’s goal is to “eliminate, over the long term, Iran’s existential threat to Israel,” which it views as difficult while the current Iranian regime remains. Israel believes regime change “could occur after military operations end,” and that current operations are aimed at creating conditions for regime change.
- Iran’s President Pezeshkian set out three necessary conditions to end the war, including war reparations and international guarantees against aggression. In a post on social media, Pezeshkian said in calls with leaders of Russia and Pakistan he reiterated Iran’s commitment to regional peace. He said the “only way” to end the current war is to recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay war reparations, and provide firm international guarantees to prevent future aggression.
- The IRGC attacked three commercial vessels on Wednesday and said the world should be prepared for oil at $200 per barrel; reports say Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters cited two informed sources saying Iran deployed about 12 naval mines in the strait, without detailing how the U.S. plans to respond. Trump confirmed U.S. strikes on Tuesday destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels.
- The IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. The proposed release is more than double the size used after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock and equals roughly 25%–30% of members’ total reserves, the largest coordinated release in the agency’s history. Several members have announced allocations: the U.S. DOE said releases will start next week, with the U.S. releasing 172 million barrels over about 120 days. Japan pledged about 80 million barrels; South Korea plans to release 22.5 million barrels.

- Latest battlefield: Israel confirmed it decapitated multiple IRGC commanders. The IRGC and Lebanese resistance forces conducted joint operations, striking more than 50 targets in Israel. U.S. bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia were also hit by IRGC missiles. The U.S. and Israel began striking Iranian economic infrastructure such as banks; Iran warned it will retaliate in kind.
- All six U.S. THAAD launchers in South Korea have been moved out of the Seongju deployment base in North Gyeongsang Province, though it is unclear whether all six have been redeployed to the Middle East.

📘The Trump administration announced it is restarting a series of Section 301 trade investigations aimed at paving the way for new tariffs on imports. The overcapacity probe launched Wednesday covers 16 economies, including China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Switzerland, and Norway. Canada was not included. The probe is on a fast track: the public comment deadline is April 15, with a public hearing around May 5, after which new tariff proposals could be introduced. Another 301 probe is expected to launch Thursday, aimed at banning U.S. imports of goods produced with forced labor; that investigation covers more than 60 economies.

📘U.S. Feb CPI y/y 2.4%, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%; m/m 0.3%, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- U.S. Feb core CPI y/y 2.5%, est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%; m/m 0.2%, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%

✍️Comment: February CPI was exactly in line with expectations. The oil spike has not yet meaningfully fed through to inflation; energy prices rose just 0.6% m/m. Other areas of concern also stayed contained: shelter rose 0.2% m/m, steady vs. the prior pace, and “supercore” eased. Looking ahead, markets already have strong priors that higher oil will lift March CPI; a 1–2 month swing is unlikely to prompt Fed action, and the Fed is still likely to stay in wait-and-see mode through H1.

📘“Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos wrote: “A Pretty Good CPI Report, but One the Fed Can’t Easily Act On.” Nick said February CPI looks tame, but is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance. First, the data do not reflect the recent geopolitical energy shock, including shipping disruptions and oil volatility that could feed into consumer prices. Second, after last year’s government shutdown, the Labor Department used temporary estimation methods in CPI that are expected to normalize gradually in April, which could lead to upward revisions in measured inflation. Third, PCE inflation remains above what CPI suggests, and the gap between the two may be widening.

📘The top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee said the DOJ’s “lead prosecutor” overseeing the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell has been replaced, a change that could signal an important shift in the high-profile probe. North Carolina GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, also on the committee, has repeatedly said he will block any Fed nominations as long as the DOJ investigation into Powell remains unresolved.

📘Private credit market panic continues as JPMorgan marks down collateral values.
- Morgan Stanley-backed private credit fund North Haven Private Income Fund restricted redemptions. The fund received nearly 11% in redemption requests in Q1 and, per fund documents, processed redemptions only up to the 5% quarterly cap, satisfying about 45.8% of requested tenders.
- JPMorgan has notified relevant private credit managers that it is reducing collateral valuations on certain loans in their portfolios, concentrated mainly in software companies. The mark-down will directly reduce future financing capacity those funds can obtain from JPMorgan. The adjustment did not trigger margin calls; it was a proactive risk-control step by JPMorgan to compress available credit lines in advance.

📅Key Event Reminders (ET）

- 2:00 AM (Thu): Closing meeting of the 4th session of the 14th National People’s Congress
- 7:30 AM (Thu): U.S. weekly jobless claims (initial claims est. 215k, prior 213k; continuing claims est. 1.850m, prior 1.868m)
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🔥SoSoValue Daily Crypto Hot News｜Mar 12, 2025

1/ Binance.US Appoints Veteran Compliance Professional Stephen Gregory as CEO – source
2/ Revolut will receive a full banking license in the UK this week. – source
3/ BTC breaks above $71,000 USDT, +1.76% in 24H – source
4/ Ripple launches a $750 million share buyback, with an estimated valuation of approximately $50 billion. – source
5/ Pump fun has registered subdomains for Base, BSC, Monad, and Ethereum, and removed the "Solana" location tag. – source
6/ SEC and CFTC sign a memorandum of understanding to jointly promote crypto regulation and new product development – source
7/ Mastercard launches Digital Asset Partner Program, focusing on on-chain cross-border and B2B payments. – source
8/ Metaplanet has established two subsidiaries: an investment company focused on the Japanese Bitcoin ecosystem and a U.S. subsidiary. – source
9/ India's CBI arrests Darwin Labs' CTO in connection with the $790 million GainBitcoin scam. – source
10/ YZi Labs demands CEA Industries address the "operational vacuum" issue and terminate the 10X asset management agreement. – source

🤖 Source｜ SoSo Value 24H Hot News
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📣 Monday 3/16/2025, Macro Newsletter

📈 Market Performance

📘U.S. Markets Broadly Lower:
- Dow -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.93%, S&P 500 -0.61%, Russell 2000 -0.36%.
- U.S. 2Y -4.05bps to 3.7043%, U.S. 10Y +0.79bps to 4.2708%.
- DXY +0.77% to 100.504.
- VIX -0.37% to 27.19.
- Brent +3.41% to 103.89, spot gold -1.18% to 5018.098.

📘Chinese ADRs Mixed:
- USD/CNH +256bps to 6.9077. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index +0.76%, PDD +1.01%, BABA +0.75%, JD +1.36%, NTES +1.07%, LI -2.80%, XPEV -0.05%, NIO +5.59%.

📘European Markets Broadly Lower:
- FTSE 100 -0.43%, CAC 40 -0.91%, DAX -0.60%. EUR/USD -0.83% to 1.1416.

📘Asia (ex-China) & EM Broadly Lower:
- Nikkei 225 -1.16%, KOSPI -1.72%, India SENSEX 30 -1.93%, Indonesia JCI -3.05%, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index -0.78%, Mexico MXX -0.66%.

📍📍Key Focus

📘Iran update: The U.S. strike on Kharg Island is meant to raise pressure, while Iran’s domestic messaging is hardline and a negotiated settlement looks unlikely. Trump’s core focus is oil prices and the election, and he is trying to offset the oil shock via Russian crude exemptions and a convoy coalition. The war is likely to last at least another 2–3 weeks, with any ceasefire window only emerging after the U.S. and Israel align. Risk-off sentiment continued to build into Monday: Brent opened near $106, WTI around $100, gold dipped below $5,000, and U.S. index futures were roughly flat.
- Late Friday (ET) on the 13th, the U.S. launched a large-scale airstrike on military facilities on Iran’s key oil-export hub Kharg Island. Air defenses, naval facilities, and the airport were hit, while oil facilities were not damaged. Kharg Island handles ~90% of Iran’s crude exports and is a key revenue source for the IRGC.
- WSJ: The U.S. is preparing to announce a Strait of Hormuz escort coalition. U.S. officials said the Trump administration may announce it as soon as this week, with multiple countries already agreeing to join. Whether escorts begin before the U.S. and Israel halt large-scale strikes on Iran is still under discussion. Trump posted on Truth Social that he wants China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the U.K. to participate.
- The U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian crude and petroleum products currently stranded at sea.
- Trump said Iran has indicated it is willing to discuss a ceasefire, but its conditions are “not good enough,” so the U.S. will not yet agree to end the war. Iran’s FM Araghchi said Iran never asked for a ceasefire and will keep defending itself until Trump recognizes this is an “unwinnable illegal war.”
- Supreme Leader Mojtaba posted late on the 15th that Iran will seek compensation from its enemies no matter what. If compensation is refused, Iran will seize assets of equivalent value; if seizure is not possible, Iran will destroy assets of equivalent value. Araghchi said the war’s end depends on two conditions: ensuring the war will not repeat and payment of compensation. The Strait of Hormuz is open to all except vessels of the U.S. and its allies.
- NEC Director Hassett said the Iran war—now in its third week—could last 4–6 weeks. An Israeli military spokesperson said operations against Iran will last at least another three weeks.
- Latest incidents: Citibank branches in Dubai (UAE) and Manama (Bahrain) were hit by drones. A drone strike sparked a fire at Fujairah port in the UAE, pausing some oil-loading operations. A missile hit a helicopter pad at the U.S. embassy in Iraq. Israel continued strikes on Iran’s ballistic-missile and drone systems in western and central Iran, including a drone launch team targeted inside a hangar in western Iran.
- Bahrain’s Aluminum (Alba), the world’s largest aluminum smelter, said it has begun a phased shutdown of three production lines, affecting about 19% of capacity.

📘China-U.S. economic and trade teams began a new round of talks in Paris on the 15th, with Reuters reporting a stable overall tone. Topics include progress on implementing the Nov. 2025 trade truce, the Iran war, investment, and procurement. On agriculture, China said it is willing to expand purchases of U.S. poultry, beef, and non-soy crops, and reiterated a commitment to buy 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans annually over the next three years. The sides also discussed creating new formal mechanisms to manage bilateral trade and investment, to be finalized at a leaders’ meeting in Beijing. Proposed “Trade Committee” and “Investment Committee” technical talks are expected to continue Monday—the former more mature, focused on balancing trade growth without harming national security or critical supply chains; the latter narrower, aimed at handling specific bilateral investment disputes.

📘U.S. released Q4 GDP & PCE second estimates:
- U.S. Q4 real GDP (SAAR) 2nd est. 0.7%, est. 1.4%, advance 1.4%, prior 4.4%
- U.S. Q4 real personal consumption (SAAR) 2nd est. 2.0%, est. 2.4%, advance 2.4%, prior 3.5%
- U.S. Q4 core PCE price index (SAAR) 2nd est. 2.9%, est. 2.7%, advance 2.7%, prior 2.9%

✍️Comment: Q4 GDP was revised down sharply—nearly half of the advance estimate—along with broad downward revisions to exports, consumption, government spending, and investment. Consumer spending was revised down from 2.4% to 2.0%; government spending was revised down further from -5.1% to -5.8%. The Oct. 2025 government shutdown is estimated to have dragged Q4 growth by ~1.0ppt. While the shutdown was a one-off and does not fully reflect underlying momentum, the weaker GDP—especially consumption—still modestly increases market concern.

📘U.S. Jan (2026) macro data:
- U.S. Jan core PCE y/y 3.1%, est. 3.1%, prior 3.0%; m/m 0.4%, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- U.S. Jan JOLTs job openings 6.946m, est. 6.750m, prior 6.550m (revised up from 6.542m)
- U.S. Jan durable goods orders m/m 0.0%, est. 1.1%, prior -0.9% (revised up from -1.4%)
- U.S. Jan core durable goods orders (ex aircraft & defense) m/m 0.0%, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%

✍️ Comment: January data were not yet affected by Iran-related disruptions. Core PCE matched expectations. Job openings remained elevated, consistent with other signals that January employment rebounded. Durable goods missed, dragged by transportation (-0.9%), especially non-defense aircraft orders (-23.7%). Overall, the January macro picture still looked reasonably healthy; focus now shifts to how higher oil feeds into growth and inflation.

📘DOJ–Powell investigation: the endgame is likely DOJ termination in exchange for Senate support and Powell’s May departure
- A U.S. judge blocked DOJ subpoenas directed at Fed Chair Powell related to an investigation into Fed HQ renovation management. The judge said substantial evidence suggests the subpoenas were intended to pressure Powell to support rate cuts or resign, while the government failed to provide substantive evidence to reasonably suspect criminal wrongdoing. DOJ will appeal.
- GOP Sen. Thom Tillis said an appeal “will only delay” Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next Fed chair.
- Powell signaled a hard line via counsel: if the criminal probe continues, he will remain as a Fed governor until 2028 after his chair term ends in May. Powell’s private attorney met federal prosecutor Pirro on Jan. 29 and conveyed this stance; DOJ characterized it as prosecutorial pressure.

📘Cuba has held talks with the U.S., still at an early stage. President Díaz-Canel said Cuban officials have met with the U.S. government to resolve differences through dialogue. Talks remain early; Cuba is willing to continue exchanges on the basis of equality and mutual respect. Trump previously said he wants to end the Iran war first, and then “Cuba is just a matter of time.”

📘China released Feb financial data:
- Total social financing CNY 2,379.2bn, Wind est. CNY 1,840.5bn, prior CNY 7,220.8bn, y/y CNY 2,233.1bn
- New RMB loans CNY 900bn, Wind est. CNY 841.6bn, prior CNY 4,710bn, y/y CNY 1,010bn
- M2 y/y 9.0%, est. 8.8%, prior 9.0%; M1 y/y 5.9%, prior 4.9%; M0 y/y 14.1%

✍️Comment: February credit beat expectations overall, but the split is stark. Corporates were the key support: short-term corporate loans surged by CNY 600bn, up CNY 270bn y/y; medium-to-long-term corporate loans rose CNY 890bn, up CNY 280bn y/y—solid given fewer working days around Lunar New Year. Households stayed weak: medium-to-long-term loans fell CNY 181.5bn, weaker than seasonal norms and down CNY 66.5bn y/y, suggesting the property downturn persists and “spring selling season” bears watching; short-term loans fell CNY 469.3bn, partly due to holiday repayments but also reflecting weak consumer confidence. On deposits, the flow of household funds into stocks and funds slowed somewhat in February, with some returning to deposits.

📅Key Event Reminders (ET）

- China data: China Jan–Feb activity data (Mon)
Overseas data: U.S. Feb PPI (Wed, y/y est. 3.0% vs. 2.9% prior; m/m est. 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior)
Key events:
- China–U.S. trade talks: Vice Premier He Lifeng leads a delegation to France Mar. 14–17 for talks with U.S. counterparts
- FOMC & Powell presser (Wed, expected hold; Powell tone hawkish)
- ECB/BoJ rate decisions (Thu, expected hold)
- Nvidia GTC (Mar 16–19; Jensen Huang speaks 2pm ET Mar 16)
- Microsoft FabCon (Mar 16–19)
- Earnings: Tencent (Wed), Alibaba (Thu)
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🔥SoSoValue Daily Crypto Hot News｜Mar 16, 2025

1/ Venus Protocol: THE liquidity pool has abnormal activity and is actively investigating. – source
2/ ShapeShift founder bought 21,293 ETH in 6 days, spending a total of $44.52 million. – source
3/ International Energy Agency: Oil from emergency reserves will soon begin to flow into global markets – source
4/ BTC broke through $72,000, with a daily increase of 0.75%. – source
5/ The 315 Gala Exposed AI Large Models as “Poisoned,” and “Brainwashing” AI Has Become an Industrial Chain – source
6/ Argentine President Milei May Be Suspected of Accepting a $5.00M Bribe by Promoting the LIBRA Token – source
7/ U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Iran conflict will end in "the next few weeks" – source
8/ US media: The US government may announce a multinational escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week. – source
9/ ETH broke through 2200 USDT, with a 24H increase of 4.91%. – source
10/ The Sky community proposes allocating approximately 70.00 million USDS of Genesis Capital to a new batch of Sky Agents. – source

🤖 Source｜ SoSo Value 24H Hot News
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📣 Wednesday 3/18/2025, Macro Newsletter

📈 Market Performance

📘U.S. Markets Broadly Lower:
- Dow -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.93%, S&P 500 -0.61%, Russell 2000 -0.36%.
- U.S. 2Y -4.05bps to 3.7043%, U.S. 10Y +0.79bps to 4.2708%.
- DXY +0.77% to 100.5040.
- VIX -0.37% to 27.19.
- Brent +3.41% to 103.89, spot gold -1.18% to 5018.098.

📘Chinese ADRs Mixed:
- USD/CNH +256bps to 6.9077. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index +0.76%, PDD +1.01%, BABA +0.75%, JD +1.36%, NTES +1.07%, LI -2.80%, XPEV -0.05%, NIO +5.59%.

📘European Markets Broadly Lower:
- FTSE 100 -0.43%, CAC 40 -0.91%, DAX -0.60%. EUR/USD -0.83% to 1.1416.

📘Asia (ex-China) & EM Broadly Lower:
- Nikkei 225 -1.16%, KOSPI -1.72%, India SENSEX 30 -1.93%, Indonesia JCI -3.05%, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index -0.78%, Mexico MXX -0.66%.

📍📍Key Focus

📘U.S.-Iran update: The situation remains fluid. Two senior Iranian and proxy officials were killed, and Hassett’s market-soothing comments helped sentiment, but the broader picture is still tense. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, with only a small number of cruise ships from Iran-aligned countries able to transit. Risk sentiment could reverse quickly.
- Latest battlefield: Multiple senior Iranian and proxy figures killed. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani was killed in an airstrike; his son Morteza Larijani and deputy Alireza Bayat were also killed. Basij militia commander Soleimani was killed. Iran stepped up attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure. Saudi MoD said Iran launched nearly 100 drones at Saudi Arabia on Monday, the largest single-day attack of this conflict. UAE MoD said on Tuesday it detected 55 Iranian launches, including 10 ballistic missiles and 45 drones, the most drone attacks in more than a week.
- White House NEC Director Hassett sought to calm markets, saying the Iran war will end soon. Hassett said the conflict could end within weeks, not months; 4–6 weeks is the base case and progress is ahead of schedule. He said some tankers are already sporadically transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and that coordinated global strategic oil releases could be expanded if needed.
- Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vetoed proposals to ease tensions with the U.S. or pursue peace at a foreign affairs meeting, rejecting proposals delivered to Iran’s foreign ministry via two intermediaries. A senior Iranian official said Mojtaba told the meeting now is not the time for peace and that the U.S. and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation.
- Israeli FM Gideon Sa’ar said Tuesday that Israel has effectively already won the war against Iran, but did not say when the conflict would end, only that operations will continue until objectives are achieved.
- NATO and many allies largely refuse to participate, constraining U.S. actions in key areas such as the Strait of Hormuz. Macron said France will not participate in reopening Hormuz under current conditions. Canada, Greece, and the Netherlands said they will not join military operations. Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. “no longer needs, nor desires” NATO assistance, and suggested the same applies to Japan, Australia, and South Korea.
- NCTC Director Joseph Kent resigned, saying Iran does not pose an imminent threat to the U.S.

📘Trump said the China trip may be delayed by one month due to the Iran war. The U.S.-China meeting was originally scheduled for March 31–April 2. Bessent said Trump may need to stay in Washington as commander-in-chief on Iran, and that China’s position on Hormuz would not delay the meeting.
- FM spokesperson Lin Jian said China and the U.S. are maintaining communication on Trump’s visit. On reports that “Trump said China not helping with Hormuz escorts would delay the visit,” Lin said he noted the U.S. has publicly clarified inaccurate media reporting and stressed the visit is unrelated to Hormuz shipping.

📘[Nvidia] Blackwell plus next-gen Rubin architecture cumulative revenue will reach $1 trillion by end-2027, versus the prior forecast of $500 billion by end-2026.
- The company is starting H200 production for China customers and has secured licenses to sell H200 chips to “many customers in China.”

📘“Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos published: “The Fed Keeps Getting Hit With New Shocks in Its Long Fight Against Inflation,” and commented on X. Nick said the Fed may prefer to stay quiet this week, but forecasts could force it to outline a path. The key question is no longer when cuts resume, but whether the Fed can still maintain a commitment to cuts. Focus on: statement wording (whether it removes language implying the next move is a cut), the dot plot (whether there is still one cut this year), and Powell’s press conference. Two former Fed chairs have argued for avoiding near-term rate-path forecasts; whether current officials take a similar approach is the central focus for this meeting.

📘China released February financial data:
- Total social financing RMB 23,792bn, Wind consensus RMB 18,405bn, prior RMB 72,208bn, y/y RMB 22,331bn.
- New RMB loans RMB 900bn, Wind consensus RMB 841.6bn, prior RMB 47,100bn, y/y RMB 1,010bn.
- M2 +9.0% y/y, market est. +8.8%, prior +9.0%; M1 +5.9% y/y, prior +4.9%; M0 +14.1% y/y.

✍️Comment: February credit beat expectations overall, but the split is clear. Corporates were the key support: short-term corporate loans rose RMB 600bn, up RMB 270bn y/y; medium-to-long-term corporate loans rose RMB 890bn, up RMB 280bn y/y—solid given fewer working days around Lunar New Year. Households stayed weak: medium-to-long-term loans fell RMB 181.5bn, weaker than seasonal norms and down RMB 66.5bn y/y, suggesting the property downturn persists and the “spring selling season” needs close watching; short-term loans fell RMB 469.3bn, partly due to holiday repayments but also reflecting weak consumer confidence. On deposits, household flows into equities and funds slowed in February, with some shifting back into deposits.

📅Key Event Reminders (ET）

- 1:00 PM (Wed): FOMC rate decision & Powell press conference
- 7:30 AM (Wed): U.S. Feb PPI (y/y est. 3.0% vs. 2.9% prior; m/m est. 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior)
- Earnings: Tencent
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🔥SoSoValue Daily Crypto Hot News｜Mar 18, 2025

1/ US CFTC: Will not require Phantom to register as a self-managed securities broker – source
2/ SEC proposes a regulatory framework for crypto assets, intending to establish financing exemptions and safe harbor mechanisms, and clarify asset classification. – source
3/ SlowMist Cosine: MoreLogin users are suspected of suffering a mass cryptocurrency theft; the hacker address has already profited approximately $85,000. – source
4/ Robinhood Ventures Fund I Announces Approximately $35.00 million in Investments in Multiple Startups – source
5/ Hong Kong stablecoin payment company RedotPay is raising new funds, targeting a valuation of over $4 billion for a U.S. IPO. – source
6/ Sam Altman-backed Worldcoin launches AI agent identity toolkit, can be connected to Coinbase x402 protocol – source
7/ Tally, a platform that provides governance tools for over 500 DAOs including Uniswap, Arbitrum, and ENS, has announced it will be shutting down after 6 years of operation. – source
8/ Morgan Stanley: Crypto ETFs are still in their early stages, and financial advisors are still evaluating allocations. – source
9/ Coinbase announces the addition of Katana (KAT) to its listing roadmap – source
10/ Hyperliquid HIP-3 market open interest reaches $1.43B, hitting a new all-time high – source

🤖 Source｜ SoSo Value 24H Hot News
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📣 Thursday 3/19/2025, Macro Newsletter

📈 Market Performance

📘U.S. Markets Broadly Lower:
- Dow -1.63%, Nasdaq -1.46%, S&P 500 -1.36%, Russell 2000 -1.64%.
- U.S. 2Y +9.72bps to 3.7708%, U.S. 10Y +6.46bps to 4.265%.
- DXY +0.74% to 100.2981.
- VIX +12.16% to 25.09.
- Brent +5.62% to 105.06, spot gold -3.86% to 4813.533.

📘Chinese ADRs Broadly Lower:
- USD/CNH +181bps to 6.9016. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index -2.06%, PDD -3.50%, BABA -1.57%, JD -1.19%, NTES -1.57%, LI -5.12%, XPEV -2.04%, NIO -2.35%.

📘European Markets Broadly Lower:
- FTSE 100 -0.94%, CAC 40 -0.06%, DAX -0.96%. EUR/USD -0.77% to 1.1451.

📘Asia (ex-China) & EM Mixed:
- Nikkei 225 +2.87%, KOSPI +5.04%, India SENSEX 30 +0.83%, Indonesia JCI +1.20%, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index +0.21%, Mexico MXX -0.63%.

📍📍Key Focus

📘Iran update: The U.S. and Israel carried out their first joint airstrikes on Iran’s oil and gas facilities. Iran immediately announced large-scale retaliation against U.S. energy infrastructure and launched attacks on three Middle East countries. If all sides continue expanding strikes on core energy assets, the global energy market could face a sharper shock—WTI is again nearing $100 and Brent is back above $105, pressuring risk assets lower.
- Iran announced retaliatory actions, formally designating oil facilities of the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. The IRGC Navy commander said it will “fully strike oil facilities associated with the U.S., treating them the same as U.S. bases.” Attacks began immediately: a fire broke out in Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City; a drone attack on an eastern Saudi natural gas facility was intercepted; operations at the UAE’s Bab oilfield and Habshan gas facility were suspended after interceptor debris fell.
- Latest battlefield: President Pezeshkian confirmed Iran’s Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib has been killed. The U.S. and Israel jointly struck facilities linked to the South Pars gas field in Iran’s southern Bushehr province and Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. The facility processes about 40% of Iran’s natural gas output. Iran “fully struck” all U.S. bases in the region and Israeli troop assembly points, and hit a U.S.-exclusive section of a Riyadh refinery in retaliation for the killing of senior officials.
- U.S. Vice President Vance said the White House recognizes the impact of current energy prices on U.S. households. Vance said “the next few weeks will be a tough road, but it’s temporary,” and said several measures to address oil prices will be announced within the next 24–48 hours.
- Reuters reported the U.S. is considering reinforcing forces in the Middle East. Sources said options include deploying air and naval forces to escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but would also require deploying U.S. forces along Iran’s coastline. Other options include sending ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island and potentially deploying troops to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. No decision has been made, and Trump is unlikely to move quickly on reinforcements.
- Latest tracking shows 9 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Kpler estimates that by the week ending March 15, seaborne oil exports from eight major producers—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE—fell to about 9.71m bpd, down roughly 61% from 25.13m bpd in February.
- The Trump administration confirmed Wednesday it authorized a 60-day Jones Act waiver to reduce U.S. domestic shipping costs for oil, gas, and other goods, temporarily allowing foreign vessels to transport a range of products including coal, crude oil, refined products, natural gas, natural gas condensate, and fertilizers.

📘U.S. Feb PPI y/y 3.4%, est. 3.0%, prior 2.9%; m/m 0.7%, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
- U.S. Feb core PPI y/y 3.9%, est. 3.7%, prior 3.6%; m/m 0.5%, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%

✍️ Comment: February PPI beat expectations, with contributions from services, energy, and food. Services rose +0.5% m/m, led by traveler accommodation, food wholesale, and investment-related services. Goods rebounded to +1.1% m/m from -0.2% prior. Energy flipped from -2.3% to +2.3% m/m—geopolitical worries are already visible in oil pricing, and the March energy shock could be stronger. Food rose +2.4% m/m, the largest increase since June 2021 (vs. -1.4% prior), highlighting volatility. On PCE-linked components, air passenger services fell -0.6% m/m, portfolio management fees rose +1.0%, and healthcare was 0.0%—overall steady, supportive of a subdued February PCE print. Overall, the upside PPI print validates market concerns: pass-through pressure from energy and goods remains, upside inflation risk persists, and the Fed’s room to cut is further constrained.

📘The Fed held its March FOMC meeting and did not cut, keeping the fed funds target range at 3.5%–3.75%, in line with expectations. Only Milan dissented, favoring a 25bp cut; all other members voted to hold.
- Statement: limited changes. Kept “solid expansion” for growth. Tweaked unemployment wording to “has changed little in recent months,” removing the prior line that it “has shown some signs of stabilizing.” Added that “the evolution of the Middle East situation and its implications for the U.S. economy remain uncertain.” Retained the January wording on “the magnitude and timing of further adjustments” (leaving the door open to future cuts).
- Dot plot: the median still points to one cut in 2026, but the distribution is more hawkish. The number of participants projecting 1+ cuts this year fell from 8 to 5. Milan’s projected total easing was reduced from 150bps to 100bps.
- Forecasts: Powell stressed they have low reference value and the Committee even considered not publishing them. 2026 GDP was revised up from 2.3% to 2.4%; 2026 core PCE was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%; the long-run rate (neutral) estimate was lifted from 3.0% to 3.1%.
- Powell: overall hawkish and did not meet expectations for a dovish shift. He said energy shocks must be treated cautiously, downplayed worries about labor softening, and said downside employment risks do not outweigh upside inflation risks. He did not rule out discussing hikes and did not firmly dismiss the possibility. He reiterated the current policy rate is at the upper end of neutral estimates, meaning policy remains restrictive. On staying on, he said clearly he will not leave the Fed as long as the investigation is ongoing; if a new Fed chair is not appointed/confirmed, he would continue as acting chair after his term ends.

✍️ Comment: Incremental information was limited. The statement and dots were more dovish than the market expected, while Powell was more hawkish than expected. Powell not turning dovish drove the initial 2–3pt market decline, with subsequent weakness mainly driven by higher oil. Overall, the meeting underscored a more cautious Fed amid geopolitical uncertainty. Without de-escalation in Iran, cuts are effectively off the table; any later easing depends on tariff pass-through and whether oil trends lower. Even if Warsh takes over, it will be difficult to persuade the Board to cut quickly under this macro backdrop. CME pricing also shows the market has little expectation for cuts this year.

📅Key Event Reminders (ET）

- 7:30 AM (Thu): U.S. weekly jobless claims (initial claims 215k, prior 213k; continuing claims est. 1.850m, prior 1.850m)
- ECB/BoJ rate decisions (rates expected unchanged)
- Earnings: Alibaba
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🔥SoSoValue Daily Crypto Hot News｜Mar 19, 2025

1/ SEC Approves Nasdaq's Tokenized Securities Settlement Pilot, Promoting Traditional Market Infrastructure Upgrade – source
2/ S&P Dow Jones Indices has authorized the use of the S&P 500® Index for perpetual contract trading on Hyperliquid. – source
3/ BTC fell below $73,000, down 1.32% on the day. – source
4/ Polymarket acquires startup Brahma to expand cryptocurrency and DeFi infrastructure – source
5/ A certain ancient whale sold 1,000 BTC again 7 hours ago, equivalent to approximately $71.57 million. – source
6/ Algorand Foundation lays off 25% of staff, continuing industry contraction trend – source
7/ Tempo mainnet is officially launched, introducing a machine payment protocol – source
8/ Visa launches CLI tool to support AI agents in automatically completing payments – source
9/ The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. – source
10/ Japan's SBI VC Trade Announces USDC Lending Service for Retail Investors – source

🤖 Source｜ SoSo Value 24H Hot News
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📣 Friday 3/20/2025, Macro Newsletter

📈 Market Performance

📘U.S. Markets Broadly Lower:
- Dow -0.44%, Nasdaq -0.28%, S&P 500 -0.27%, Russell 2000 +0.65%.
- U.S. 2Y +1.32bps to 3.784%, U.S. 10Y -1.77bps to 4.2473%.
- DXY -1.11% to 99.1847.
- VIX -4.11% to 24.06.
- Brent +0.15% to 103.07, spot gold -3.39% to 4650.503.

📘Chinese ADRs Mixed:
- USD/CNH -192bps to 6.8824. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index -1.00%, PDD -3.27%, BABA -7.09%, JD -0.64%, NTES -0.57%, LI +0.00%, XPEV +2.02%, NIO +0.00%.

📘European Markets Broadly Lower:
- FTSE 100 -2.35%, CAC 40 -2.03%, DAX -2.82%. EUR/USD +1.21% to 1.1589.

📘Asia (ex-China) & EM Mixed:
- Nikkei 225 -3.38%, KOSPI -2.73%, India SENSEX 30 +0.83%, Indonesia JCI +1.20%, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index -0.86%, Mexico MXX -0.88%.

📍📍Key Focus

📘Brent briefly broke above $110 before officials moved to calm markets: Trump said the U.S. did not strike Iranian energy facilities and told Israel to halt such actions, showing a clear TACO tilt; six countries also pledged to safeguard navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. But U.S.-Israel differences over a ceasefire remain significant and fighting is still likely to last for weeks. Key uncertainties include whether the six-country escort plan is implemented, whether the U.S. restricts oil exports, and whether the U.S. uses force to seize Kharg Island—leaving oil prices vulnerable to renewed swings.
- Trump said he was “completely unaware” of Israel’s strikes on Iran’s oil and gas facilities and told Israel not to attack energy infrastructure inside Iran. He said the U.S. will take all necessary measures to keep oil prices stable. Asked about sending more troops to the Middle East, Trump said he would not deploy troops anywhere. He also said the U.S. could take Iran’s key oil export hub Kharg Island at any time.
- Netanyahu said Israel “alone” conducted airstrikes on an Iranian gas field and that Israel will comply with Trump’s request to pause further strikes on Iranian energy facilities. He said operations against Iran will continue as long as necessary, and IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said the campaign is “not even halfway” done.
- Iran FM Araghchi posted that Iran’s response to Israeli strikes on Iran’s infrastructure has used only a small portion of Iran’s capabilities, and that if Iran’s infrastructure is attacked again, Iran will show zero restraint. He said ending the war first requires resolving compensation for damaged Iranian civilian infrastructure.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent sought to show that striking Iran’s energy facilities is not a U.S. objective and to calm oil prices. He said the U.S. did not attack Iran’s energy infrastructure and that the U.S. has allowed Iranian oil to continue moving through the Gulf region. The U.S. could lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in coming days. He also said the U.S. may release additional SPR barrels to cap prices. The White House said the U.S. will not impose a crude export ban. Bessent also threatened to identify where Iranian leaders’ bank accounts are held.
- France, the U.K., Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan said in a joint statement they stand ready to take appropriate measures to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. They demanded Iran immediately halt mine-laying, drone and missile attacks, and comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817. The statement reaffirmed freedom of navigation as a basic principle of international law, including UNCLOS.
- Reuters: QatarEnergy’s CEO said Iranian attacks have disabled about one-sixth of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, and repairs could take 3–5 years. Ras Laffan typically accounts for about one-fifth of global LNG supply. The duration of the damage and the repair timeline remain unclear; European benchmark gas futures surged as much as 35% intraday.

- Latest battlefield: 8 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Israel struck Bandar Anzali on Iran’s Caspian coast for the first time, hitting a command center and shipbuilding facilities and destroying multiple naval vessels. Iran attacked Ben Gurion airport, a refinery in the Haifa area and troop assembly sites, fuel supply facilities, and logistics hubs; it also struck the U.S. Fifth Fleet and hit a U.S. F-35 stealth fighter.

📘Trump said the Iran war will delay the U.S.-China summit by about 1.5 months, without providing an exact date. He said the schedule for the summit with Xi has been reset and suggested it could take place in mid-May, implying an overall delay of roughly six weeks.

📘U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended Mar. 14: 205k, est. 215k, prior 213k
- U.S. continuing claims for the week ended Mar. 7: 1.857m, est. 1.850m, prior 1.847m (revised down from 1.850m)

✍️Comment: Initial claims stayed low, the lowest since Jan. 10, and this release reflects the new annual seasonal adjustment factors. The 4-week average through Mar. 14 was 210k, well below the comparable historical level of 228.0k. Continuing claims ticked up to 1.857m but remain near historic lows, underscoring labor-market resilience. Markets have further cooled expectations for 2026 cuts and are increasingly pricing no cuts for the year.

📘DOJ prosecutor Pirro may continue appealing the Powell probe ruling; new Senate scrutiny of Warsh could further delay the Fed leadership transition timeline
- Trump signaled continued support for the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Powell and again urged Powell to cut rates immediately, saying Powell won’t because he is stubborn and incompetent. Bloomberg reported DOJ leadership also supports prosecutor Pirro continuing the appeal.
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren raised questions over reports tying Warsh to Epstein-related files. Warren cited email exchanges suggesting Warsh may have been invited to events allegedly organized by Epstein, including in St. Barts and New York, and asked Warsh to respond by March 31. Warren sits on the Senate Banking Committee, which reviews Fed nominees.
- “Fed watcher” outlet published: “Trump Wants Powell Out; Powell Won’t Budge.” The Fed faces a potential leadership transition with an uncertain timeline, adding to uncertainty over who will steer key policy decisions. Powell said at his press conference he will not leave the Fed until the DOJ investigation ends, a stance that could have far-reaching implications for internal power dynamics.

📘BoJ held its policy rate at 0.75% on Thursday, in line with expectations, citing the Middle East conflict as the key risk. The decision passed 8–1. Hawkish member Takata Hajime made a rare proposal to hike directly to 1%. The statement for the first time listed the Middle East conflict and the oil surge as core risks.
- BoJ Governor Ueda kept the door open to hikes. He said higher oil prices are likely to push headline inflation higher and could raise inflation expectations and underlying inflation, but if oil stays high it could also weigh on activity by worsening terms of trade. He reiterated the direction of policy normalization is unchanged: real rates remain deeply negative, and if growth and inflation evolve in line with projections and continue improving, the BoJ will keep raising rates, assessing timing meeting-by-meeting.

📘The ECB held rates unchanged, as expected. It raised inflation forecasts and lowered growth forecasts, lifting the 2026 core inflation forecast from 2.2% to 2.3% and cutting the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%.
Lagarde warned of the inflation implications of the Iran conflict but said the ECB can manage war-related risks. If Hormuz oil and gas supply faces a stronger and more persistent shock, 2026 inflation could rise to 3.5%; in a severe scenario, headline inflation could reach 4.4%. On labor markets, she said conditions have cooled meaningfully versus 2022 and wage indicators point to further declines in labor-cost growth; the ECB will closely monitor. Markets currently price roughly two ECB hikes this year.

📘China released Jan–Feb fiscal data:
- General public budget revenue CNY 4.42tn, +0.7% y/y. Tax revenue +0.1% y/y (Dec. -11.50%); non-tax revenue +3.4% (Dec. -47.92%). General public budget spending CNY 4.67tn, +3.60% y/y (Dec. -1.77%).
- Government fund budget revenue CNY 536.3bn, -16% y/y (Dec. -11.71%), with land sales revenue -25.23% y/y (Dec. -22.86%). Government fund budget spending CNY 1.32tn, +16.0% y/y.

✍️Comment: Jan–Feb tax revenue turned positive y/y but with a limited gain, constrained by a high base last year. Structurally, personal income tax -6.9% y/y, dragged by Lunar New Year timing and base effects; corporate income tax -3.9% y/y, still negative; stamp tax +34.7% y/y, reflecting active A-share trading early in the year. Land sales revenue remained weak (-25.23%). On the spending side, general spending turned positive to +3.6% y/y, showing a faster early-year rollout, with “two major” and “two new” funding disbursed earlier than last year. Watch whether this translates into a rebound in infrastructure and manufacturing investment.

📅Key Event Reminders (ET）

- U.S. quadruple witching
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🔥SoSoValue Daily Crypto Hot News｜Mar 20, 2025

1/ Binance Futures Will Launch EDGEUSDT Perpetual Contract Pre-Market Trading – source
2/ Gemini laid off approximately 30% of its staff, reducing its headcount to 445, with a full-year loss of approximately $585.00 million and is promoting AI to reduce costs. – source
3/ BTC fell below $69,000, down 3.55% on the day. – source
4/ Kentucky's Cryptocurrency ATM Bill Sparks Controversy with New Provisions That Could Impact Self-Custody Wallet Mechanisms – source
5/ A certain whale once again spent 36.75 million USDT to buy 17,084 ETH. – source
6/ Kalshi completes a new round of financing exceeding $1 billion at a $2.2 billion valuation – source
7/ A whale deposited $4.10 million into Hyperliquid to leveraged long Brent crude oil. – source
8/ Crypto market structure talks see progress but remain in "delicate state," with unexpected path forward emerging in meeting. – source
9/ MLB and Polymarket establish an exclusive partnership – source
10/ ETH fell below $2100, down 4.03% on the day. – source

🤖 Source｜ SoSo Value 24H Hot News
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