Israel Probes Polymarket Trader Who Forecast Start Of Iran War

Donald Trump’s son currently serves in an advisory role at Polymarket, while Trump himself has twice blocked investigations into the platform

Israeli police have opened an investigation into a Polymarket account that accurately forecast the 28 February US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Channel 12 reported on 2 March, as scrutiny intensifies over possible insider knowledge of military operations in the prediction market platform.

The Polymarket user, under the name “Magamyman,” reportedly earned about $430,000 by predicting that the US would strike Iran on 28 February.

According to Globes, roughly $529 million was bet on when the war would begin, with $90 million riding on 28 February.

Polymarket, a US-based gambling platform, operates with limited regulatory oversight, permitting bets on anything from sports events to weather changes to election results and war outbreaks.

Israeli police have now opened a criminal investigation into user Magamyman who bet on Iran strikes. Notably authorities in Israel have launched the only known prosecution of Polymarket traders https://t.co/pK3oNKIm6T

🔗SOURCE ➡️ The Cradle

Related: 3/2 — It Appears That A Polymarket Account Called "Magamyman" Made $515,000 In A Single Day Betting On Last Night's U.S. Strike On Iran, With The First Trade Placed 71 Minutes Before The News Broke Publicly.

1/3 — 🇺🇸🇻🇪 An account on Polymarket won $400,000 after betting on Maduro's capture just hours before it happened.

12/30/25 — Tim Pool Exposed As Another Node In The Polymarket Influence Network Attacking Candace Owens Or Skeptics Of The Official Charlie Kirk Assassination Narrative

12/1/25 — This Is Very Suspicious. The Betting Website Polymarket Tends To Be Very Accurate In Predicting Election Outcomes.

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⭕️ Gulf air defenses strained as US ‘stonewalling’ interceptor requests amid escalating war
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The United States is reportedly “stonewalling” requests from Gulf states to replenish depleted air defense interceptors as Iranian missile and drone attacks intensify across the region, according to Middle East Eye (MEE), citing western and former US officials. At least one Gulf country that has come under Iranian attack sought assurances and resupply from Washington but was reportedly brushed off. Another Gulf state reportedly tied US access to its air bases to guarantees regarding American commitment to its air defense systems.

Since the escalation began, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have all faced Iranian strikes, with Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE bearing the brunt. The UAE says it intercepted 814 of 871 incoming projectiles, while Bahrain reports downing at least 45. However, advanced US-made THAAD and Patriot interceptors are costly and take years to produce, raising concerns about sustainability. MEE also reports that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is heading toward the Gulf, a move seen as an effort to address mounting security concerns among regional allies.

❗️US aircraft leave Spain as government refuses to allow bases to be used to attack Iran

At least seven US military aircraft were tracked by Flightradar24 landing at Ramstein Air Base, while multiple aerial refueling tankers departed Spain after Madrid made clear its territory would not be used in the US-Israel assault on Iran, according to a report by Reuters.

Nine tankers were shown leaving Morón Air Base in southern Spain toward Germany, with additional flights departing from Rota Naval Base.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has condemned the US–Israeli attacks on Iran and reinforced Spain’s refusal to facilitate the campaign of aggression. Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares was explicit in remarks to Telecinco: "Spanish bases are not being used for this operation, and they will not be used for anything not included in the agreement with the United States or for anything that is not in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations."

Defense Minister Margarita Robles stated that the aircraft, primarily Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers, are permanently stationed in Spain, even as their departure signaled Madrid’s refusal to be drawn directly into the expanding confrontation.

💢 Hebrew newspaper Haaretz: "Israel does not have the ability for a long war with Iran"

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2026-03-01/ty-article-opinion/israel-cannot-afford-a-long-war-with-iran-or-abandon-its-people-again/0000019c-a628-defa-abdf-befd227f0000

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— 🇮🇷/🇧🇭 NOTE: Bahrain was officially Iran's 14th Province from 1957 until 1971

The grandfather of the current Emir, Sheikh Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifah, who ruled Bahrain at that time, pledged allegiance to Iran in 1958, a year after Bahrain was officially declared an Iranian province.

Before 1957, Iran considered Bahrain as a part of Fars Province, despite exercising no effective control over the island, which was ruled mostly by the British, together with Qatar and the Trucial States (UAE) in what was known as the 'Persian Gulf Residency', a subdivision of the British Empire.

But, throughout the majority of Bahrain's history, it was a Persian island, and for this reason the country is still majority Shia until this day, and many Bahraini citizens have Iranian ancestry and pro-Iran political views.

@Middle_East_Spectator

❗️Israel's Public Broadcasting Corporation (KAN) announced that Israel is preparing for the possibility of a prolonged war against Hezbollah, which could continue even after the war with Iran ends.

🇧🇭 🇸🇦 An attack by a drone on the King Fahd Bridge, which connects Saudi Arabia to Bahrain.

🇸🇦 🇧🇭 GCC troops roll into Bahrain from Saudi — Peninsula Shield forces cross the causeway to crush a pro-Iran uprising.

🇸🇦 🇧🇭 🇺🇸 Drone hit the causeway between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The King Fahd Causeway, known as the "Friendship Bridge between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia," is built over the Persian Gulf and connects Bahrain Island to Saudi Arabia. This bridge is 25 kilometers long.

It appears that American forces used this bridge to escape from Bahrain towards Saudi Arabia and Peninsula Shield Forces to cross to Bahrain to stop the people in Bahrain protesting against the dictatorship.

This attack was ultimately a warning to the regime.

🇮🇷 Iran’s IRGC: A new wave of attacks targeted Arifjan base in Kuwait, where U.S. Marine forces are stationed. Ten drones successfully struck their designated targets.

🇮🇷 Iran’s IRGC: The main command building and headquarters of the US airbase were destroyed

The fourteenth wave of Operation Vadeh Sadegh 4 by the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted the US airbase in the Sheikh Isa area of Bahrain early this morning with a widespread drone and missile attack. In this attack, 20 drones and 3 missiles hit the intended targets, destroying the main command building and headquarters of the US airbase and setting its fuel tanks on fire, with flames and smoke drawing everyone's attention.

Thomas Massie Subtweets Trump — PSA: Bombing A Country On The Other Side Of The Globe Won’t Make The Epstein Files Go Away, Any More Than The Dow Going Above 50,000 Will.

🔗SOURCE ➡️ Thomas Massie

Related: 3/1 — Thomas Massie: I Am Opposed To This War.

2/27 — Thomas Massie on DOJ Removing Photo of Lutnick with Epstein: I’m Sure There’s A Good Reason For This. DOJ Needs To Tell Congress Who Pulled This File Down So We Can Ask Them.

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JUST IN - Netanyahu says strikes on Iran will "grow stronger in the coming days" and that the "campaign," supported by U.S., has enabled him to "do what I have longed to do for 40 years—to strike the terrorist regime hip and thigh."

@disclosetv