Forwarded from Lebanese News and Updates
#admin long thread. Worth reading
There was a very important point mentioned yesterday in the speech of Sheikh Naim Qassem that highlighted clearly what we have seen in the past two months, that Hezbullah has stopped at the commands of its leadership any armed action that is categorized as offensive and has shifted to a new temporarily form that is much needed in this phase of history (short term) that will be capable of dealing with a tide that it cannot control due to the results of the war in terms of how it affected them and the change in the Middle East that took place overnight and placed Hezbollah as a loner which no wall to lay its back on. He said "at this time, it is the responsibility of the state"
Move forward and your loss might be irreversible, move back, and you will fall into a ditch as deep as time has existed. This dilemma has been hinted in the first speeches of Qassem, where he said that resistance has many forms, and that it is the leadership that defines what form is suitable. These words are not empty, but highlight a necessity to adapt because of the lack of popular support facing wars when the majority has either decided to surrender, act as if not concerned, or decided to reconcile with the US and Israel.
The matter here is not that Hezbollah has abandoned armed resistance, not at all. It is simply, that under current circumstances in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar's Syria and the ever growing anger and criminal actions by the majority with Lebanese, your hands are tied and in your hand is not the golden sword you had once. You hold a sword of steel in front of furnace and this furnace is operated by your enemy. Gold can melt, but you get my point.
I do believe, had the general Sunni Muslim atmosphere in the Arab world been better towards Palestine and not limited to submission and TikTok videos, the heavy burden Hezbollah is feeling in Lebanon could have been eased because they would have found nations that are willing to voice support to them in order to remedy the injuries and then help them in the post-war recovery in terms of aid for the people, rebuilding, etc. However unfortunately, Sunnis have always been this weak despite being in great masses that if each carried a bucket of water they could have drowned Israel. They are useless masses and the slaves of their kings and leaders, no matter how corrupt. I'm not sectarian and my family is mixed with Sunnis, however I do not expect from someone who say "R.A killed R.A and both are in heaven" to be a person that can stand-up at the right time for the right thing.
The issue today, that the 2024 war is not like the 2006, except in one point only. Before i mention that, do not believe anyone that have told you that they supported Hezbollah in 2006 yet they did not in 2023-2024. Those who supported them never flipped sides, unless when they were corrupted by ego, money, or hate.
For this war, that was inevitable but unfrankly did not go as expected, I have done many threads that I'm satisfied with in terms of knowledge to people and have tackled the causes of the war, the results, the ceasefire, and the conditions that the war was fought under. You can find them under #admin. They are really helpful.
I sometimes think, how do I know that I am not wrong in what i believe in and did not fall into the same delusion that others did. Its not easy to answer but i think asking this question is a good indicator and that my conscious is clear about good and evil, and I'm able to know when bad is done regardless if its from the people I support or no.
The purpose of this is post is to tackle two topics mainly: What are the challenges facing Hezbollah today and in the future, and how do I assume that Hezbollah will act today and in the future. This won't be a professionally written article because I dont have the time, but it will be satisfactory. My purpose of writing is because of my need to put my thoughts in words to deeper my understanding in what i believe in, and in the hope that at least one person will benefit from them in his life.
There was a very important point mentioned yesterday in the speech of Sheikh Naim Qassem that highlighted clearly what we have seen in the past two months, that Hezbullah has stopped at the commands of its leadership any armed action that is categorized as offensive and has shifted to a new temporarily form that is much needed in this phase of history (short term) that will be capable of dealing with a tide that it cannot control due to the results of the war in terms of how it affected them and the change in the Middle East that took place overnight and placed Hezbollah as a loner which no wall to lay its back on. He said "at this time, it is the responsibility of the state"
Move forward and your loss might be irreversible, move back, and you will fall into a ditch as deep as time has existed. This dilemma has been hinted in the first speeches of Qassem, where he said that resistance has many forms, and that it is the leadership that defines what form is suitable. These words are not empty, but highlight a necessity to adapt because of the lack of popular support facing wars when the majority has either decided to surrender, act as if not concerned, or decided to reconcile with the US and Israel.
The matter here is not that Hezbollah has abandoned armed resistance, not at all. It is simply, that under current circumstances in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar's Syria and the ever growing anger and criminal actions by the majority with Lebanese, your hands are tied and in your hand is not the golden sword you had once. You hold a sword of steel in front of furnace and this furnace is operated by your enemy. Gold can melt, but you get my point.
I do believe, had the general Sunni Muslim atmosphere in the Arab world been better towards Palestine and not limited to submission and TikTok videos, the heavy burden Hezbollah is feeling in Lebanon could have been eased because they would have found nations that are willing to voice support to them in order to remedy the injuries and then help them in the post-war recovery in terms of aid for the people, rebuilding, etc. However unfortunately, Sunnis have always been this weak despite being in great masses that if each carried a bucket of water they could have drowned Israel. They are useless masses and the slaves of their kings and leaders, no matter how corrupt. I'm not sectarian and my family is mixed with Sunnis, however I do not expect from someone who say "R.A killed R.A and both are in heaven" to be a person that can stand-up at the right time for the right thing.
The issue today, that the 2024 war is not like the 2006, except in one point only. Before i mention that, do not believe anyone that have told you that they supported Hezbollah in 2006 yet they did not in 2023-2024. Those who supported them never flipped sides, unless when they were corrupted by ego, money, or hate.
For this war, that was inevitable but unfrankly did not go as expected, I have done many threads that I'm satisfied with in terms of knowledge to people and have tackled the causes of the war, the results, the ceasefire, and the conditions that the war was fought under. You can find them under #admin. They are really helpful.
I sometimes think, how do I know that I am not wrong in what i believe in and did not fall into the same delusion that others did. Its not easy to answer but i think asking this question is a good indicator and that my conscious is clear about good and evil, and I'm able to know when bad is done regardless if its from the people I support or no.
The purpose of this is post is to tackle two topics mainly: What are the challenges facing Hezbollah today and in the future, and how do I assume that Hezbollah will act today and in the future. This won't be a professionally written article because I dont have the time, but it will be satisfactory. My purpose of writing is because of my need to put my thoughts in words to deeper my understanding in what i believe in, and in the hope that at least one person will benefit from them in his life.
👍25❤22🤣3👎1🥱1
Forwarded from Lebanese News and Updates
🧵 Thread about the new IDF doctrine and the Lebanese diplomacy
At one point there was a serious discussion if the path to a secure and safeguard Lebanon was through diplomacy or strength which is enabled through a resistance. However with time, similar to how the deterrence of the resistance eroded through the mishaps of the latest battle, the worth of diplomatic solutions eroded but faster without any fruits.
The difference is that the path to diplomacy was a just a shiny slogan spoken through the mouths of many who either never achieved anything for the overall best of Lebanon or used diplomacy as a veil to hide their ill intentions that intended to drive Lebanon towards full surrender and not only remove it from the few remaining Arab states with an active political and military front against Israel.
The goal was to shift its whole identity to one that strips it from its history and culture and put it under the shroud of a client state with no real security and no real worth in this world. You get peace by submission and erasing any threat to the West.
The dilemma here is and will always be that the side that chose to not to be part of the resistance does not get burdened at all with loss. They are neither subjected by the enemy to murder, nor are they subjected to material loss and pain. This makes the cost of choosing to be on the other side of the front that assumes the moral high ground in the world affairs, easy and without any costs.
On the contrary, the resistance is not only facing the burdens of justifying its existence and then the burdens of building up strength despite the challenges, it is burdened by the immense costs of loss and material damages that affects it and affect its supporting base. This base that needs a lot of effort to keep rallied around the cause.
To explain this, compare the costs paid by Hezbullah in 2006 to secure 17 years of unpreceded peace and deterrence before the setback of 2024, verses the costs paid by its political opponents in Lebanon. All the achievements done by Hezbullah since 2000 were ridiculed, yet when the winds shifted in favor of its opponents without any cost or effort from them, and despite years of making wrong assumptions and decisions, they were hailed.
What I personally find annoying is the hypocrisy that these opponents showcase, and their disregard of any decency in politics. What I find particularly wrong and is within the scope of this, is how they refused to adhere to the legitimacy given to Hezbullah in the past decade through the ministerial statement and once it was dropped, it became the holy words of God and now Hezbullah is an outlaw.
However the disregard to any decency has been showcased particularly not by the general populace of Lebanese who are against Hezbullah's arms, but by the Lebanese Forces party whose officials today crossed an unpreceded low announcing that they are ready to mandate Israel to defeat Hezbullah in the south and the Syrians in the north. They took a step further and said its high time for the Lebanese army itself to fight Hezbullah and that they accept genocide against Shia if done by the Syrians. This is what their head of communication Charles Jabour said.
The issue of Hezbullah's arms is indeed a topic that can be discussed. While it is a norm for us, and we not only accept it but encourage it, in the wider definition of states it is indeed irregular to have an armed faction whose power at one point rivals that of states.
The only difference between this irregularity and any other, that Hezbullah did not leverage this power to take over the state and submit others like how everyone else in history did, and focused only on Israel. And had Hezbullah not face mishaps in the latest war, and had Israel not get a green light from the whole world to act as it pleases unrestrained by any laws of humanity, the discussion of the weapons would not have sparked such polarity as it is doing today.
#admin
At one point there was a serious discussion if the path to a secure and safeguard Lebanon was through diplomacy or strength which is enabled through a resistance. However with time, similar to how the deterrence of the resistance eroded through the mishaps of the latest battle, the worth of diplomatic solutions eroded but faster without any fruits.
The difference is that the path to diplomacy was a just a shiny slogan spoken through the mouths of many who either never achieved anything for the overall best of Lebanon or used diplomacy as a veil to hide their ill intentions that intended to drive Lebanon towards full surrender and not only remove it from the few remaining Arab states with an active political and military front against Israel.
The goal was to shift its whole identity to one that strips it from its history and culture and put it under the shroud of a client state with no real security and no real worth in this world. You get peace by submission and erasing any threat to the West.
The dilemma here is and will always be that the side that chose to not to be part of the resistance does not get burdened at all with loss. They are neither subjected by the enemy to murder, nor are they subjected to material loss and pain. This makes the cost of choosing to be on the other side of the front that assumes the moral high ground in the world affairs, easy and without any costs.
On the contrary, the resistance is not only facing the burdens of justifying its existence and then the burdens of building up strength despite the challenges, it is burdened by the immense costs of loss and material damages that affects it and affect its supporting base. This base that needs a lot of effort to keep rallied around the cause.
To explain this, compare the costs paid by Hezbullah in 2006 to secure 17 years of unpreceded peace and deterrence before the setback of 2024, verses the costs paid by its political opponents in Lebanon. All the achievements done by Hezbullah since 2000 were ridiculed, yet when the winds shifted in favor of its opponents without any cost or effort from them, and despite years of making wrong assumptions and decisions, they were hailed.
What I personally find annoying is the hypocrisy that these opponents showcase, and their disregard of any decency in politics. What I find particularly wrong and is within the scope of this, is how they refused to adhere to the legitimacy given to Hezbullah in the past decade through the ministerial statement and once it was dropped, it became the holy words of God and now Hezbullah is an outlaw.
However the disregard to any decency has been showcased particularly not by the general populace of Lebanese who are against Hezbullah's arms, but by the Lebanese Forces party whose officials today crossed an unpreceded low announcing that they are ready to mandate Israel to defeat Hezbullah in the south and the Syrians in the north. They took a step further and said its high time for the Lebanese army itself to fight Hezbullah and that they accept genocide against Shia if done by the Syrians. This is what their head of communication Charles Jabour said.
The issue of Hezbullah's arms is indeed a topic that can be discussed. While it is a norm for us, and we not only accept it but encourage it, in the wider definition of states it is indeed irregular to have an armed faction whose power at one point rivals that of states.
The only difference between this irregularity and any other, that Hezbullah did not leverage this power to take over the state and submit others like how everyone else in history did, and focused only on Israel. And had Hezbullah not face mishaps in the latest war, and had Israel not get a green light from the whole world to act as it pleases unrestrained by any laws of humanity, the discussion of the weapons would not have sparked such polarity as it is doing today.
#admin
❤9👎3🫡3