KOREA DAILY INSIGHT - KIS GREG KIM
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IRAN EYES MILITARY TARGETS IN EUROPE IF TRUMP ESCALATES WAR, INSIDERS SAY – FT
SK하이닉스 40조원 자사주 매입/소각 (총 주식수 대비 3.3%)

https://dart.fss.or.kr/dsaf001/main.do?rcpNo=20260819000254
* My first take on the SK Hynix buyback & shareholder return
 
- The W40tn buyback/cancellation is essentially the same amount raised from ADR. This lifts back SK Square's stake % in Hynix back to pre-ADR level.
 
- Shouldn't they do more? Yes, of course. But, this is the first time Hynix publicly announcing 'more than 50% of FCF' for shareholder return while leaving room for extra DVD payout. SEC's stance is upto 50% of FCF, not more than. Also, they're saying shareholder return with 3 yr (FY25~27) cumulative FCF too now, setting the stage for partial bonus payout in shrs to employees in the mid-long term in my view. This could mean upside in Co's OP.
 
Hynix and Square now -3% level at NXT aft-mkt. Will follow up again after analyst call at 4:30pm KST.

* SK Hynix outlines 2025~2027 Shareholder Return Policy
 
- Plan to return at least 50% of the cumulative free cash flow generated during the policy period (2025–2027)
- Adopt both buyback+cancellation and cas dvds to enhance shareholder value
- Currently, reviewing measures to increase dvds via special dvds
- Early shareholder return could be possible on significant free cash flow generation
- To announce more detailed shareholder return details at 3Q26 earnings
 
https://dart.fss.or.kr/dsaf001/main.do?rcpNo=20260819800338
Final update on Hynix for today from KIS sales team.

* SK Hynix disclosed daily buyback of 650,000 shrs for tomorrow (Aug 20) worth c. W980bn based on today's KRX close. The total Hynix shr turnover yesterday (Aug 18) on KRX+NXT was 8.9m shrs or 5.1m shrs on KRX alone. The 650k shr buyback translates to 7.3% of KRX+NXT and 12.6% of KRX turnover from Aug 18.

Note, all the buyback will be executed through SK Securities (001510) pad.
KOSPI to gain after US treasury buyback long-dated bonds, easing pressure from rising rate. Eyes on SK HYNIX (pre +7.9%) rebound amid positive broker reports upon buyback, and if BIO/PHARM out-perform tracking MODERNA +177% surge overnight.

* SK HYNIX (000660) 1) W40tn buyback & cxl for 3 mths (24.1mn shrs or 3.3% o/s). Filed to buyback 650k shrs today, 2) S&P upgrades from 'BBB+' to 'A-' on +tive memory outlook.
* SEC (005930) raised foundry chip making prices by upto 15% on demand spike, Reuters.
* GEOPOLITICS: Trump to meet N.Korea's Kim Jong-un in Nov at APEC summit.
* SKT (017670) disclosed add'l c.W140bn investment in Anthropic in 1H26 via filing.
* HD HHI (329180) has launched a landing support vessel jointly built w/SIMA, Peru's state-owned shipyard, for the Peruvian Navy.
* HD GLOVIS (086280) Space X delegation reportedly visited co to review car carrier for Starlink operation.
* POSCO HLDG (005490) to supply battery-grade lithium to Chinese cathode materials producer 'Ronbay' within 4Q26.
* SDI (006400) plans to expand its robotics, aerospace and sodium-ion batteries biz, broadening its portfolio beyond EVs and ESS, press.
* NEOIMMUNETECH (950220) has licensed out its NT-I7 to US Tolerance Bio for rhymus-related indication in the US and EU; securing 4% stake in Tolerance Bio, milestones up to W366.9bn, and add'l royalty upon commercialization.
FX Note : 환율 전망 업데이트: 단기 하락과 중장기 방향성 시험대 (Analyst 문다운)

• 2026년 하반기 평균 달러-원 전망을 기존 1,470원에서 1,420원으로 하향

o 마지막 업데이트 당시 하반기 평균 전망은 1,470원이었고, 일별 적정 레인지를 1,410~1,560원으로 제시. 7월 들어 급락하기 시작한 달러-원이 지난 8월 19일 종가 기준 1,397.7원까지 하락하면서 뚜렷하게 적정 하단을 돌파
o 달러화가 여전히 강한데도 불구하고 대내적인 수급만으로 환율이 150원 넘게 급락. 법인세 중간 예납, 국내 투자 등의 목적으로 원화 자금 조달 수요가 강하게 유입되는 가운데 달러인덱스가 소폭 하락하면서 낙폭이 확대. 빅피겨 1,400원이 돌파된 이상 단기적으로 달러-원 하락 모멘텀이 더 이어질 것

• 남은 연말까지 적정 레인지는 1,340~1,520원. 하단에 근접할수록 달러 매수 수요가 붙으며 반등하려는 힘이 강해질 것이고, 상단에 근접할수록 달러 매도 수요에 하락하는 힘이 강해질 것
o 대내적으로는 7월 SK하이닉스 ADR 대금을 시작으로 주요 수출기업의 달러 매도가 집중되는 동시에 환헤지 비중은 높아지면서 뚜렷한 환율 하락 변곡점이 형성된 상황. 환율이 높아질 때마다 달러 매도가 나오면서 환율 상단을 누르고 있는 것

• 여기에 대외적으로 미국-이란 전쟁 전개 양상 및 유가 레벨에 따라서 불확실성이 높은 상황이나 아직까지는 매크로 관점에서 연준의 기준금리 동결을 전제로하고 있음
o 현재 선물시장은 1~2회의 기준금리 인상 가능성을 반영하고 있는 상황. 시장의 인상 기대가 되돌려지는 과정에서 달러인덱스는 현재 99pt 내외에서 96~97pt대로 점진적 하락을 예상. 현수준에서부터 약 3~4%의 하락을 예상하며 수급을 제외하고 달러의 낙폭만 단순 반영해도 달러-원 하단은 1,360원 내외까지 확대

• 리포트 링크: https://vo.la/hSi5Kul
* SK Square (402340, +9.0%) proxy play may be back on as SK Hynix flagged possibility of announcing special DVD payout including reduced capital dvd (W4tn capital reserve transfer already approved at Mar '26 AGM) along with 3Q26 earnings release.
KOREA DAILY INSIGHT - KIS GREG KIM
https://mbiz.heraldcorp.com/article/10847006
Again.. if Hynix is paying 60% of bonus with shrs, SEC may also follow suit in mixing shrs as part of bonus payout, which could trigger c. W20tn+ buyback. Pls see our previous comment below.
 
Sent previously...(May 27)
 
★★[UPDATE]KR Tech: SEC (005930) Wage deal approved. Catch up rally to come
 
SEC (005930) shrs bouncing back to +4% level after local press flagged a W21tn T-shr buyback by Co could be confirmed soon for bonus payout.
 
- Co-wide FY26 OPe W352tn
- DS Div OPe W331tn x 10.5% = W34.8tn payable - 40% income tax = W20.9tn
 
So, this suggests the T-shr buyback amount is ex-40% income tax i.e. Co withholds taxes at source, just like regular salary, and deliver only the remaining shares to employees. As for the 40% income tax part => SEC would need to build employee compensation provisions as non-operating expense through the rest of the year => pay directly to govt/inland revenue at the end of tax year.
 
As highlighted earlier today, Co's existing T-shrs already have designated uses, making additional buybacks unavoidable to fund the special performance bonus.
마이크론은 12월 이후 대규모 buyback 예상. 27-28년 FCF 약 530조원

Micron is currently restricted from carrying out big share buybacks or special dividends due to conditions of the Chips Act funding it received from the U.S. government back in 2024.

However, the restrictions on share buybacks should expire on Dec. 9 of this year and the company has signaled it intends to step up capital returns from then.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri has estimated Micron will generate around $380 billion in cumulative free cash flow across 2027 and 2028 and should be able to use the "vast majority" of that cash to buy back stock.
KOSPI to open muted after US markets pull back amid mixed sentiment on interest rate, and rise in oil price. TECH may support downside after SOX +0.5%; SK HYNIX (pre +1%) filed to buyback 650k shrs (or 6.6% of 20-day ADV) for the 2nd day.

* SEC (005930), SK HYNIX (000660) 1) to add two more fabs in Honam, Korea by 2040, total 6 fabs vs. Prev 4 fabs, 2) 60+ domestic part, material and equipment cos including JUSUNG ENG (036930) to join the govt's 'K-Moonshot' R&D project for HBF ecosystem.
* SK HYNIX (000660) reportedly mulls to invest multi-trillion won to build its first memory plant in Japan, press.
* HMC (005380) 1) to increase U.S. vehicle production at Georgia plant from 500k to 800k units by 2028, CEO said, 2) labor union launches full-day strike today; cumulative sales losses estimated at W2.3tn, press highlights.
* ELEC POWER: S.Korea government opens transmission network construction, previously restricted to KEPCO (015760), to private cos to accelerate grid expansion amid surging electricity demand.
* KAKAO (035720) to announce group restructuring plan including conversion to a holdco and spin off KakaoTalk biz at an employee town hall today.
* CHINA PLAYS: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi remarked that relations between S.Korea and China have resumed a normal trajectory thanks to President Lee's decision, press.
* SHIPPING: S.Korea's first-ever container ship trial along the Arctic route to the EU begins on August 22, aiming to assess its commercial viability for logistics.
* CHEM: FTC has conditionally approved the corporate merger of LOTTE CHEM (011170), HD HYUNDAI (267250)'s and HD Hyundai Chemical, for the Daesan petrochem restructuring.
ESG : 국민성장펀드: 에너지 투자 하이패스 (Analyst 정다솜)

• 5년간 200조 원 규모로 조성되는 '국민성장펀드'가 국내 재생에너지 및 이차전지 등 에너지 전환 투자의 구조적 분기점이 될 전망

o 국민성장펀드는 부동산에 묶여있던 잉여 자본을 첨단전략산업이라는 생산적 영역으로 이동시키는 생산적 금융의 주요한 수단으로, 고위험 대규모 자본투자의 마중물 역할을 할 것으로 기대
o 에너지 인프라는 첨단전략산업의 핵심인 AI·반도체를 뒷받침하는 후방산업으로, 정부가 발표한 서남권 반도체 클러스터와 AI DC 등 3대 메가프로젝트는 24.7GW의 신규 전력을 필요로 함. 국민성장펀드는 에너지 인프라, 특히 초기 대규모 설비투자를 필요로 하는 해상풍력 및 수소 프로젝트의 PF 대출에 참여해 금융비용을 줄이고 프로젝트 기대수익률을 높임으로써 민간 투자를 촉진할 것

• 첨단전략산업으로 지정된 이차전지·수소·첨단모빌리티와 그 후방산업인 재생에너지·전력기기 업종의 수혜를 예상. 막대한 초기 투자비 조달 병목이 해소되고 국내 수요 및 국산화 지원정책이 확대됨에 따라 HVDC 및 해상풍력 밸류체인 기업의 성장이 기대. 그 중에서도 발전사업은 에너지 고속도로로 대표되는 송배전 계획, 반도체 클러스터 등의 산업수요, 5극3특의 지방균형성장 정책의 교차점에 국민성장펀드의 투자가 집중될 것
o 서남권(전남·전북·광주)과 중부권(대전·충청) 지역의 대규모 풍력 프로젝트가 차기 메가프로젝트 선정 가능성이 높으며, 해당 프로젝트의 연관기업들을 주목

• 리포트 링크: https://vo.la/ZcwhLAs
(Bloomberg) -- Samsung Electronics Co. plans to announce Friday a new shareholder return package that could be worth as much as 110 trillion won ($79 billion), according to a person familiar with the matter.

A board meeting is scheduled to take place around 4 p.m. local time after the close of the Korean stock market, and the company is set to disclose the details of the program shortly afterwards, the person said, asking not to be named discussing private information. 

The size of the shareholder return package is expected to range between 90 trillion won and 110 trillion won, making it one of the company’s most significant capital-return initiatives, the person said.
KOREA DAILY INSIGHT - KIS GREG KIM
(Bloomberg) -- Samsung Electronics Co. plans to announce Friday a new shareholder return package that could be worth as much as 110 trillion won ($79 billion), according to a person familiar with the matter. A board meeting is scheduled to take place around…
=> Massive T/O on SEC-P (005935, +6.2%) this morning with over 1.9m shrs traded in just 40 minutes from opening vs total 3.7m shrs traded all day y'day. Eyes on any Pref-specific announcement from Co (i.e. mixing in the buyback etc).
□ 2026년 주주환원 예상 규모 및 시행 방안
- 2026년 경영실적 및 투자 등에 따라 변동
가능하나, 2026년 주주환원 잔여 재원(3년간 총
FCF 50%에서 2024~2025년에 시행한 29.3조원
차감)은 약 90~110조원 규모로 예상

* 3년간 총 FCF 산정시
보증금 성격의 메모리 제품 LTA(장기공급계약)
'선수금' 및 임직원 성과급 주식보상 관련
지출액은 차감


- 2026년 3분기에는 정규 분기배당을 포함해
30조원 내외 규모의 현금배당을 시행할 계획
으로
2026년 10월말 개최될 이사회에서 구체적인
내용을 확정할 예정

- 2026년 결산 후 2027년 1월말 개최 예정인
이사회에서 나머지 주주환원의 규모 및 구체적인
시행 방안을 최종 결정하여 별도 발표할 계획
·나머지 주주환원은 현금배당과 자기주식
매입/소각을 종합적으로 고려하여 시행 예정

https://dart.fss.or.kr/dsaf001/main.do?rcpNo=20260821800763
KOREA DAILY INSIGHT - KIS GREG KIM
*SAMSUNG TO BUY BACK 15 TLN WON OF SHRS https://dart.fss.or.kr/dsaf001/main.do?rcpNo=20260821000616
* SEC to buy back W15tn worth shrs (53.3m shrs) for employee compensation from Aug 24 to Nov 21. Daily buy back limit 7.3m shrs. No mention of Pref shrs in buy back.