Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โ€” Financial Times reports that two Russian ships carrying oil and gas are on their way to Cuba, despite US pressures and sanctions under Trump's administration.

โžก๏ธThese shipments come at a time when Cuba is facing a severe energy crisis, as evidenced by recent nationwide power outages and months-long fuel supply disruptions.

โžก๏ธThis additional supply may help alleviate the shortages that have disrupted hospitals, transportation, and daily life.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - IRGC Missiles targeting central Israel.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - IRGC Missiles targeting central Israel.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” Red alerts in Tel Aviv and its surroundings.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - President Trump claimed Israel attacked Iranian gas field without the US knowledge, contradicting earlier reports. In the same Truth Social post, Trump has pledged to restrain Israel from similar attacks on energy infrastructure.
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณโŒ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - As the Pentagon became entangled in a major war in Iran, the US intelligence community released an assessment claiming China has no plan to invade Taiwan in 2027.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ›ฅ - UKMTO reported another attack on shipping just off the coast of Ras Laffan, Qatar. The crew of the vessel are reportedly safe.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - NASA Fire Anomaly data shows burning at the Saudi Arabia oil export terminal of Yanbu. This is consistent with an earlier claim by Iran of attacks on the facility.

Yanbu, located in Saudi Red Sea coast, is the kingdom only operational oil export terminal. It is currently offloading 4 million barrel per day.

The Yanbu infrastructure is partially financed by China in a joint project with Saudi Arabia.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ- Kuwait is battling uncontrollable fires at the ports of Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries after they were targeted by Iran.

Mina Al-Ahmadi & Mina Abdullah are Kuwaitโ€™s main oil refineries, producing 800,000 barrels a day.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- The aftermath at Ras Laffan in Qatar after Iranian strikes.

The LNG plant is mostly on fire it is highly unlikely to be put out anytime soon.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ“ˆ - European gas price is up 30% overnight as the damage in Qatari gas facilities are being assessed. A heavy damage scenario would means the Qatari LNG facilities staying offline for months if not years.

Europe relies on Qatar for a sizable portion of its gas import as it distances itself from Russian pipeline gas. The situation is exacerbated by Europe record low gas storage level at the onset of the crisis.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Qatar, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tรผrkiye and the UAE issued a joint statement calling on Iran โ€œto immediately halt its attacksโ€ after holding a meeting in Riyadh.

@CIG_telegram
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๐Ÿคฎ168๐Ÿ–•91๐Ÿคก60๐Ÿคฃ36โค12๐Ÿ˜ก5๐Ÿคฌ4๐Ÿ†’4๐Ÿ‘2๐Ÿ˜ญ2โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - In an interview with Australia's ABC, UAE's Minister for International Cooperation said "We are doubling down on our friends", referring to the United States and Israel, when asked if the recent Iranian attacks will make UAE reconsider hostingโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - UAE reaffirmed its commitment to invest $1.4 trillion in the United States despite the conflict in Iran. Policymakers remain steadfast in building deeper ties with the US, despite the Emirates bearing the brunt of Iranian missile attacks.

UAE ambassador to the US also added โ€œThis is not a war we wanted, and we worked intensely to avoid it. But even as we held hope and pursued de-escalation, we also knew a war could someday come.โ€

UAE is well positioned to recover from the conflict, having stashed away more than $2 trillion in its sovereign wealth funds.
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ›ข - Russian Energy Ministry official teased the oil market with the possibility of a fuel export restriction - Reuters
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ- Egypt is introducing energy rationing measures shops and malls are forced to close at 9pm on weekdays and 10 pm on weekends, aswell as reduced street lighting, and possible remote work to cope with soaring fuel costs caused by the Iran war.

Gas import costs jumped from $560M to $1.65B/month, thatโ€™s more than double forcing rationing throughout the country.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ›ข #BREAKING - US Treasury Secretary just discussed the possibility to waive sanction for Iranian oil that is already at sea in an interview with Fox Business.

1โƒฃ Secretary Bessent estimated that there is around 140 million barrels of crude at sea, the unfreezing of which will make up for 10-14 days of oil supply deficit.

2โƒฃ The waiver would redirect the Iranian oil from China to US allies, alleviating the shortage. China would get less oil discount, but Iran would be able to sell its oil at a higher price.

3โƒฃ Bessent dismissed speculation that the Treasury is intervening in the oil market.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- IDF strike targeted RT correspondent Steve Sweeney on the "AlQasmiya" bridge on air in Lebanon.

Steve and his cameraman were injured by shrapnel but are in stable condition.
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Disenchanted European Leaders are expressing growing discontent over Trump's 'Pointless' War in Iran.

1โƒฃ As the prospect of a quick victory diminished, Europe, still struggling to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, is increasingly concerned about a new energy crisis.

2โƒฃ Spain has been the most vocal in its criticism, calling the war illegal and claiming it undermined global rules. France, Greece, Norway and notably Germany have explicitly ruled out their participation in the war. Others are stepping up their criticism.

3โƒฃ The war introduced new irritants in the already tense Transatlantic ties. President Trump is deeply unhappy with lack of support from NATO. Previous disputes between US and EU, over Ukraine, Tariff and Greenland are still latent.

4โƒฃ A key Trump ally in Europe, Victor Orban of Hungary, is facing a difficult reelection fight next month. Hungary is among the most vulnerable countries to an energy crisis in Europe, with Ukraine having severed Hungary's pipeline from Russia.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” The American Secretary of War:
Today will be the largest package yet. We're hunting and striking, death and destruction from above.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ›ข - Qatar Energy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage, via Reuters.

Qatar makes up 20% of the global LNG supply.
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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ›ข - Qatar Energy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage, via Reuters. Qatar makes up 20% of the global LNG supply.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- The estimated Annual losses from the damaged facilities are about $20 billion. For the next 3-5 years that equals anywhere from $60 - $100 Billion.
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#NEW โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - IAF Fighter Jets are conducting airstrikes on the Iranian Navy in 'Gilan' on the coast of the 'Caspian' sea, in the cities of 'Bandar Anzali', 'Rasht' and 'Lahijan'. Air Defenses active.
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - The IDF has announced responsibility of airstrikes on Iran's port city of 'Bandar Anzal', and stated that several Iranian Navy vessels, as well as infrastructure were targeted.

The IDF states it destroyed guard boards, a Navy corvette, 4 missile boats, "several" auxiliary ships, a shipyard and a command center.

The IDF states that these were not amongst it's initial target bank. but the IDF's Naval Intelligence Division and the Intelligence Directorate had only started preparing for these strikes a few days ago.


The IDF published footage of the strike from Fighter Jet Targeting pods. Standoff munitions were presumably utilized.
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