Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck four Ukrainian dry-cargo vessels, accusing them of carrying military equipment.

The strikes took place in the port of Chernomorsk, the waters of the Bug Estuary, and the Black Sea, and were carried out by jet-powered Geran-4s
.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ President Trump went on another weird posting spree on his Truth Social over the last hour, criticizing the free press, former President Obama, threatening Greenland, and claiming to be getting younger, among other things.

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช โ€“ The Houthis (Ansarullah) said Saudi Arabia has launched 106 air and missile strikes against Yemen over the past 24 hours, apparently indicating increased Saudi pressure as the Houthis consolidate their gains in the Taizz front and threaten the capture of the city.

The strikes targeted the Houthi capital, Sana'a, and the governorates of Al-Jawf, Taiz, Amran, Hajjah, and Saada.

The KSA has carried out over 1500 air and missile attacks against the Houthis since the war restarted.


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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช - The UKMTO reports a series of explosions nearby a Tanker in Ansarullah-controlled "Bab AlMandeb". No impact, the crew is safe.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช- Ansarullah forces continue to make significant advances southwest of Taizz, leaving the city virtually encircled. Houthi forces have severed all major road corridors in and out of the city along with capturing numerous towns and villages across the Taizz governorate.

โžก๏ธ Over the past 24 hours, Ansarullah captured a large section of the Taizzโ€“Aden highway, including settlements such as At Turbah, Al Mansora, As Samsarah, As Safiyah, and Al Nashmah. East of the road Ansarullah also secured the Al-Ahad Al-Shaoubah junction, further cutting off Road 2050.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ Polls have closed for the first round of the Presidential election in Brazil.

With 7% of the ballots counted, right-wing and Trump-backed candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has a 10-point lead over incumbent Lula da Silva, who is seeking an unprecedented, non-consecutive fourth term in power.

If either candidate gets over 50% of the vote on the first round of elections, the second round of elections would be annulled and he'd become the next Brazilian President.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ At over 12% of the vote counted, Bolsonaro is extending his lead over Lula, and he's now leading by almost 11 points.

If he manages to keep it this way, he could win the election without the need of a runoffโ€”and if they both go into the second round, Bolsonaro has proven himself to be stronger than the polls suggested.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ With over a third of the vote counted, the voting trajectory is barely changing and Bolsonaro still maintains a 10-point lead over Lula.

It's looking increasingly likely he could win on the first round, and if not, that he would be able to win against Lula in a runoff.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ Bolsonaro's unexpectedly good performance is mostly due to him performing better than his father did in 2022 on states that voted for Lula in the last election.

The official site of the Brazilian 'Tribunal Superior Eleitoral' currently gives Bolsonaro 50.2% of the vote against Lula's 41.63%, at over 47.2% of the vote counted.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ With over 59% of the vote counted, Bolsonaro has fallen below the 50% threshold and it's now likely a runoff election will indeed take place on October 25, three weeks from now.

Reuters currently claims Bolsonaro has 49.8% of the vote, while Lula is closing in at 42.0% of the vote.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ โ€“ A committee of the Mecca pact will meet in Riyadh tomorrow, October 5, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

It's likely the main topics will be Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis, Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and bases, and the newly announced PLC counter-offensive aimed at regaining all lost territory.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ Brazil will go to a second round of elections on October 25, three weeks from now.

With ~85% of the polls counted, Bolsonaro maintains a 5-point lead, 48.5% to Lula's 43.5%


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ The states where Lula is leading by the largest margins (bigger circles indicate a bigger lead) are also the ones that have counted the less votes so far, so Lula is expected to further close the 5-point gap with Bolsonaro.

Alagoas: +18.5 for Lula โ€” 57% counted
Cearรก: +29.8 for Lula โ€” 68% counted
Maranhรฃo: +30.4 for Lula โ€” 75% counted
Bahia: +45.7 for Lula โ€” 67% counted


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ—ณ โ€“ At 99.55% of the votes counted, Lula managed to shrink Bolsonaro's lead to 2.7%, or around 2.4 million votes.

The runoff election, which Bolsonaro is likely to win, will be held on October 25.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Trump claimed the U.S. voting system is "CORRUPT" by comparing it to today's first round of presidential elections in... India.

Elections were held, as our informed and loyal subscribers may know, in Brazil, which is very much not India.


125 Million People voted today in the first round of Indiaโ€™s Presidential Election. The results came out shortly after the vote closed, on the SAME DAY! In Detroit, Philadelphia, California, and numerous other U.S. Cities and States, the results, with much smaller numbers, will often take weeks to Rig, I mean, calculate. Voting in America is CORRUPT!!! President DJT


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