YouGov’s MRP poll (more on that below) predicts Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. These numbers would give Labour a majority of 212, the largest the party has ever enjoyed. Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats were on 72 seats, up 61.

A poll by More in Common released Wednesday predicted a 210-seat majority for Labour, showing the party on 430 seats, up 228 from the last election, while the Tories were down 239 seats on 126. The Lib Dems returned as the third party with 52 seats, up 41, while the Scottish National Party held 16 seats, a loss of 32. Reform UK won two seats.

A Focaldata poll also published Wednesday suggested an even higher majority for Labour of 238, allocating the party 444 seats to the Tories’ 108 seats. The Lib Dems would also return as the third party with 57 seats, while the SNP held just 15 of Scotland’s 57 seats. Reform would again win two seats.

In the House of Commons, 326 seats out of 650 are needed to govern with an overall majority. Labour’s last election-winning Prime Minister Tony Blair won the 1997 general election with a majority of 179, winning two further elections with smaller majorities.