🇾🇪 🤝 🇵🇰 Somalia-Yemen Smuggling Network in the Gulf of Aden

🔶️ The Houthis and al Shabaab engaging in direct talks on weapons sales would indicate that the groups are interested in exchanging higher-grade systems not typically involved in the Gulf of Aden smuggling network, such as surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) or attack drones.

🔶️ US officials told CNN that the Houthis would send a “bigger kit” of weaponry than rockets and mortars if a deal occurred. This is likely because small arms, light weapons, and surveillance drone sales pose a high risk with only limited returns for al Shabaab & the Houthis.

🔶️ Both groups are likely only willing to risk the international retaliation & internal criticism that cooperation would draw if it substantially advances their goals. This means al Shabaab likely seeks new weapon systems, and the Houthis seek significant revenue & potential attacks against US forces.

🔶️ Small arms, light weapons, and surveillance drones do not meet these likely requirements due to al Shabaab’s preexisting access & these weapons’ limited ability to threaten US activity in Houthi domains. However, Houthi SAMs & attack drones better address these interests.

🔶️ The Houthis began shooting down US drones in 2017 by modifying Soviet-era SAM stockpiles with Iranian assistance. The group has since upgraded to Iranian SAMs, which has helped it increase its shoot-down rate of US drones since it began attacking shipping in the Red Sea.

🔶️ The Houthis have used Qasef series loitering munitions to strike air defense systems & soft targets since 2016. The drones are cheap, easy to manufacture, easily transportable, and require relatively little supporting logistics to operate, making them ideal for al Shabaab.

🔶️ The Houthis are unlikely to send advanced weapons systems, such as anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, to al Shabaab. The Houthis would have to provide al Shabaab with substantial training and logistical assistance to enable the group to use and maintain such weapons.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-june-13-2024-houthi-shabaab-weapons-deal-sfg-boost-in-central-somalia

🇦🇫🇦🇫🇵🇸❌🇮🇱-Caliber Hebrew website:

The Taliban asked Iran to join the fighting in southern Lebanon. A prominent journalist in the Al-Akhbar newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah reported that the Taliban movement informed Iran of its desire to fight Israel and that it is ready to send thousands of fighters when the opportunity arises.

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 -The Israeli Nifgashim orginization:

More than 10,000 reserve soldiers have requested mental health services.

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 - Israeli Media has admitted 8-12 APC crew losses due to the complete destruction of a 'Carrier Vehicle' (Possibly a NAMER) after it was hit and engulfed with flames this morning. Some reports state it was due to an IED explosion, which could have been a 'Shuath' EFP attack by AlQassam, while some reports state it was a KORNET 9M133 guided missile attack.

🇮🇱❌🇮🇱- Netanyahu's son from Miami inciting against the army.

Yair Netanyahu shared a video against the chief of staff, the head of the Shin Bet, and the head of the security service with the caption: Three fatal failures.

🇬🇧❌🇾🇪🇾🇪- UKMTO says another vessel has been hit today by Yemeni forces and is now sinking

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸-BREAKING
Israeli army spokesman:

We cannot free all the kidnapped people through military operations

📖 🏴 🔥 October 1 - "The Middle East region is quieter today than It has been in two decades" - US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan

January 2 - Islamic State C is at its last breath, ISKP only has 80 members.

Beginning of March - op-eds on Syria *let's withdraw from Syria and Iraq, no job for us to do anymore, switched to containing Iranians*

April 1 until now: 💥

📎 Paweł Wójcik