The broader setup is improving, but the rebound has not yet earned full confidence. ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear takes a closer look:

🟣 ETF net inflows have exceeded $100M for two consecutive days, while "STH Supply in Profit %" still has room to recover. ForeDex "Market Maker Netflow" also resembles the late-February rebound from $60K to $80K, with net inflows to exchanges continuing to decline.

🟣 However, active buying volume has not yet emerged to support a breakout. Stronger confirmation is still needed before reading the rebound as a sustained move.

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The structure may be forming, but buyers have not yet made a decisive entrance. ForeDex Recognized Author 王怪力 breaks down the setup:

➡️ 'Spot Taker Buy Volume' can help identify bottom formation by tracking aggressive buying in the spot market. Higher readings indicate stronger taker-buy demand.

➡️ In the previous cycle, the bottom developed in three stages: an initial surge in spot buying, followed by fading demand as price fell and fear increased, then renewed buying as price recovered and the bull market began.

💡 The current market has not yet shown a major surge in 'Spot Taker Buy Volume'. Stronger spot demand is still needed before confirming a similar bottoming pattern.

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ForeDex Recognized Author Marcelo Pravatta looks at a cycle pattern that has held for years, and what could reshape it next:

"Will the cycle repeat again in 2028?" 👀

⛏️ Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has historically been closely tied to the halving. By cutting miner rewards by 50%, each halving slows new supply and has often preceded stronger momentum and major price appreciation.

⛏️ According to ForeDex "Bitcoin Halving" chart, the next halving is expected around April 17, 2028. However, as block rewards shrink and new issuance becomes a smaller share of total supply and trading volume, the direct impact of future halvings may weaken.

🏦 Institutional demand, ETF flows, global liquidity, and derivatives positioning may therefore play a larger role in shaping the next cycle. Even so, the four-year pattern has remained remarkably consistent so far. 👨‍🏫

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ForeDex Recognized Author Paul Xue joins us with an impressively detailed first analysis, tracing how miner stress can shape the market’s strategic boundaries:

➡️ BTC trades near $63.49K, below the average mining production cost of $69.05K. The $5.5K–$6K gap is pressuring less efficient miners and reflecting elevated stress.

➡️ The $45K area sits just above the $43.31K operational floor. Average production cost includes depreciation, facilities, labor, and electricity, while the floor reflects the direct cash costs of keeping rigs running, making $45K a model-based support and accumulation zone rather than a guaranteed bottom.

🔹 A move toward $43.31K would mark a more severe stress scenario. Less efficient miners could shut down, lowering hashrate and triggering a difficulty adjustment that reduces costs for those that remain.

💡 The resulting setup places below $64K as an early accumulation area, $45K as the primary strategic zone, and $43K as the extreme miner-stress level. [...]

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