🧙♂️ForeDex Recognized Author Kaan shares a 🧵 of #BTC market context:
✅Supportive Signals
🔸 BTC Spot ETF Cumulative Flow is still positive, institutions have not exited, and Whale Exchange Netflows do not show extreme selling pressure, suggesting the current dip looks more like repositioning than the start of a deeper collapse.
[...]
☑️Neutral/Mixed Signals
🔸 Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow (IBIT) and the Futures Taker Buy/Sell Ratio both suggest the market is not turning sharply bearish, but institutional inflows have cooled and buyer momentum is weaker than previous rallies, meaning #Bitcoin likely needs fresh liquidity to push toward higher levels.
🟥Risk Factors to Watch
🔸 Momentum is slowing as ETF inflow strength and buyer demand remain weaker than in previous rallies, making $BTC more sensitive to liquidity, funding, whale behavior, and liquidation levels.
Read More
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✅Supportive Signals
🔸 BTC Spot ETF Cumulative Flow is still positive, institutions have not exited, and Whale Exchange Netflows do not show extreme selling pressure, suggesting the current dip looks more like repositioning than the start of a deeper collapse.
[...]
☑️Neutral/Mixed Signals
🔸 Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow (IBIT) and the Futures Taker Buy/Sell Ratio both suggest the market is not turning sharply bearish, but institutional inflows have cooled and buyer momentum is weaker than previous rallies, meaning #Bitcoin likely needs fresh liquidity to push toward higher levels.
🟥Risk Factors to Watch
🔸 Momentum is slowing as ETF inflow strength and buyer demand remain weaker than in previous rallies, making $BTC more sensitive to liquidity, funding, whale behavior, and liquidation levels.
Read More
View Chart
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"A Reason Why This Cycle is More Unique" by ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto Dan:
🤔 What makes this cycle more "unique" than the previous ones?
➡️ Spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024 brought institutional capital into the market before the April halving, helping #BTC reach its previous all-time-high zone ahead of the usual supply-shock event.
➡️ Halving may no longer be the only major bull-cycle trigger, as Bitcoin’s market structure appears to be shifting from supply-driven cycles toward demand-driven institutional flows.
😲 Where are we at now?
➡️ #BTC may have topped in the second half of 2025 and entered a bear cycle around October 2025, with the current 2026 drawdown near -52% compared to -84% in 2018 and -77% in 2022.
💡 Where are we going?
➡️ This cycle may form a shallower bear-market bottom than past cycles because ETF-driven institutional buying and U.S. strategic reserve discussions add support factors that previous cycles did not have [...]
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🤔 What makes this cycle more "unique" than the previous ones?
➡️ Spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024 brought institutional capital into the market before the April halving, helping #BTC reach its previous all-time-high zone ahead of the usual supply-shock event.
➡️ Halving may no longer be the only major bull-cycle trigger, as Bitcoin’s market structure appears to be shifting from supply-driven cycles toward demand-driven institutional flows.
😲 Where are we at now?
➡️ #BTC may have topped in the second half of 2025 and entered a bear cycle around October 2025, with the current 2026 drawdown near -52% compared to -84% in 2018 and -77% in 2022.
💡 Where are we going?
➡️ This cycle may form a shallower bear-market bottom than past cycles because ETF-driven institutional buying and U.S. strategic reserve discussions add support factors that previous cycles did not have [...]
Read More
View Chart
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"ForeDex" CVD by Order Size (Spot)
(Data based on a 1-month period)
- Whales & Mega Whales Only
1. Binance
2. Bybit
3. Bitfinex(usd)
4. Bitfinex(usdt)
View Chart
(Data based on a 1-month period)
- Whales & Mega Whales Only
1. Binance
2. Bybit
3. Bitfinex(usd)
4. Bitfinex(usdt)
View Chart
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🌻ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay shares her interpretation of the Pi Cycle Model:
➡️ The Pi Cycle Model tracks Bitcoin’s long-term cycle structure using the 111DMA and 2×350DMA, with past major bull-market peaks occurring when the rising 111DMA touched or closely approached the 2×350DMA.🤫
🟩Supportive Factors
🔸 $BTC has not stayed deeply below the 111DMA for an extended period, and with the 111DMA rising near $69.8K, the current structure suggests the long-term trend has not been fully broken.
🔸 The 111DMA is still sloping upward and remains far from the 2×350DMA, suggesting trend momentum has not fully disappeared and the cycle may not be fully over based on this model.
🟥 Risk Factors
🔸 Past cycles showed that prolonged weakness below the 111DMA often came before bear-market development or final bottom formation, so short-term volatility cannot be ruled out even if the broader cycle is not clearly over.😥
[...]
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➡️ The Pi Cycle Model tracks Bitcoin’s long-term cycle structure using the 111DMA and 2×350DMA, with past major bull-market peaks occurring when the rising 111DMA touched or closely approached the 2×350DMA.🤫
🟩Supportive Factors
🔸 $BTC has not stayed deeply below the 111DMA for an extended period, and with the 111DMA rising near $69.8K, the current structure suggests the long-term trend has not been fully broken.
🔸 The 111DMA is still sloping upward and remains far from the 2×350DMA, suggesting trend momentum has not fully disappeared and the cycle may not be fully over based on this model.
🟥 Risk Factors
🔸 Past cycles showed that prolonged weakness below the 111DMA often came before bear-market development or final bottom formation, so short-term volatility cannot be ruled out even if the broader cycle is not clearly over.😥
[...]
Read More
View Chart
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#Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply in Loss is rising!🤯 What does that mean? ForeDex Recognized Author G a a h explains:
➡️ "Supply in Loss LTH continues to rise, reaching near historic highs seen in 2020, 2018, and 2015 #BTC"
➡️ With $BTC trading around $79K–$81K, coins bought over the last 5–6 months are maturing into LTH positions at an average cost basis above current price, pushing Supply in Loss LTH toward levels that have historically appeared near Bitcoin bottom zones.🙏
View Chart
➡️ "Supply in Loss LTH continues to rise, reaching near historic highs seen in 2020, 2018, and 2015 #BTC"
➡️ With $BTC trading around $79K–$81K, coins bought over the last 5–6 months are maturing into LTH positions at an average cost basis above current price, pushing Supply in Loss LTH toward levels that have historically appeared near Bitcoin bottom zones.🙏
View Chart
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➡️ Outflow volume shows the size.🤔
➡️ Outflow transactions show the rhythm.😯
Market Maker Outflow Transactions helps traders track whether #BTC is returning from market makers to exchanges in isolated bursts or repeated waves. 🌊🌊
📈When frequency rises, exchange-side liquidity may be becoming more active.🏃
💸Price moves fast. Flow rhythm gives context.👇
View Chart
➡️ Outflow transactions show the rhythm.😯
Market Maker Outflow Transactions helps traders track whether #BTC is returning from market makers to exchanges in isolated bursts or repeated waves. 🌊🌊
📈When frequency rises, exchange-side liquidity may be becoming more active.🏃
💸Price moves fast. Flow rhythm gives context.👇
View Chart
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ForeDex Macro Dashboard is not locked behind a complicated setup.📊🤩
It is a T1 feature, available free at sign-up.🌱
✨Traders can monitor key macro categories in one place, including market heatmap, economic calendar, economic indicators, rates, liquidity, equities, commodities, and money supply.
✨The top panel can be customized to highlight the data you want to watch first.👀
✨The lower panels connect to corresponding charts, so when a number needs more context, open the chart view and compare the trend directly.📊
🧙♂️Whether you are checking Global M2, Fed Funds Rate, Treasury yields, crude oil, unemployment, equities, or liquidity conditions, the dashboard gives macro context in one organized screen.🤝
Access it through:
Chart > Macro Data > Macro Dashboard
or Community > Macro Dashboard.
View Dashboard
It is a T1 feature, available free at sign-up.🌱
✨Traders can monitor key macro categories in one place, including market heatmap, economic calendar, economic indicators, rates, liquidity, equities, commodities, and money supply.
✨The top panel can be customized to highlight the data you want to watch first.👀
✨The lower panels connect to corresponding charts, so when a number needs more context, open the chart view and compare the trend directly.📊
🧙♂️Whether you are checking Global M2, Fed Funds Rate, Treasury yields, crude oil, unemployment, equities, or liquidity conditions, the dashboard gives macro context in one organized screen.🤝
Access it through:
Chart > Macro Data > Macro Dashboard
or Community > Macro Dashboard.
View Dashboard
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ForeDex Global Recognized Author Leo Ruga reviews #BTC Funding conditions during the move from $67K to $80K:
🔸Funding rates have stayed negative across major exchanges for roughly 90 days since February, yet #BTC moved from about $67K to $80K while leverage sentiment barely improved.
🔸For roughly three months, shorts paid longs every 8 hours to keep positions open while $BTC rose about $13K, turning persistent bearish futures positioning into a growing cost that eventually had to be closed, absorbed as losses, or forced out through liquidation.
"At some point you have to ask: who's left to sell?🤨"
View Chart
🔸Funding rates have stayed negative across major exchanges for roughly 90 days since February, yet #BTC moved from about $67K to $80K while leverage sentiment barely improved.
🔸For roughly three months, shorts paid longs every 8 hours to keep positions open while $BTC rose about $13K, turning persistent bearish futures positioning into a growing cost that eventually had to be closed, absorbed as losses, or forced out through liquidation.
"At some point you have to ask: who's left to sell?🤨"
View Chart
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#BTC market data and price movement review from ForeDex Recognized Author Kaan:
⭐️ $BTC is at a critical point as short-term momentum weakens after repeated failures to hold $81K–$82K, with bearish 4H signals emerging and $79K–$78.8K now acting as the key support zone.
⭐️ If $BTC holds $79K–$78.8K, the pullback could remain a liquidity sweep with a possible retest of $81K–$83K, while a clear 4H break below that zone would weaken the structure and open the path toward $78K, $77.5K, or deeper.
⭐️ From a data and flow perspective, funding remains controlled, ETF flows have not shown major institutional outflows, whales are not in a strong distribution phase, and sentiment has cooled. This suggests the current pullback still looks more like a correction or liquidity adjustment than a full breakdown for now.
➡️ $BTC remains in a sensitive zone. To clearly restore positive momentum, price needs to recover the $80.5K–$81K area.🙏
View Chart
⭐️ $BTC is at a critical point as short-term momentum weakens after repeated failures to hold $81K–$82K, with bearish 4H signals emerging and $79K–$78.8K now acting as the key support zone.
⭐️ If $BTC holds $79K–$78.8K, the pullback could remain a liquidity sweep with a possible retest of $81K–$83K, while a clear 4H break below that zone would weaken the structure and open the path toward $78K, $77.5K, or deeper.
⭐️ From a data and flow perspective, funding remains controlled, ETF flows have not shown major institutional outflows, whales are not in a strong distribution phase, and sentiment has cooled. This suggests the current pullback still looks more like a correction or liquidity adjustment than a full breakdown for now.
➡️ $BTC remains in a sensitive zone. To clearly restore positive momentum, price needs to recover the $80.5K–$81K area.🙏
View Chart
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No Bitcoin was withdrawn from BlackRock (IBIT) wallet today.
The manipulation method is simple.
Record the transaction yesterday, then repost it as if the selling happened today.
However, all on-chain records remain permanently visible.
The real problem is that people simply believe it without verification.
ForeDex_Proof will continue documenting these types of manipulated on-chain narratives and misleading records.
Original Content
The manipulation method is simple.
Record the transaction yesterday, then repost it as if the selling happened today.
However, all on-chain records remain permanently visible.
The real problem is that people simply believe it without verification.
ForeDex_Proof will continue documenting these types of manipulated on-chain narratives and misleading records.
Original Content
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🚨 ForeDex Recognized Author AbramChart warns of concerning signal in Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow:
"We're below the average buying price of the funds and above the average buying price of Saylor."
➡️ ETF demand has supported #Bitcoin throughout the recent uptrend, with many analyses focusing on consistent institutional buying.
➡️ However, the latest data also shows a notable one-day ETF-related sell-off near $82K, reportedly the largest since January when $BTC was around $86K.
View Chart
"We're below the average buying price of the funds and above the average buying price of Saylor."
➡️ ETF demand has supported #Bitcoin throughout the recent uptrend, with many analyses focusing on consistent institutional buying.
➡️ However, the latest data also shows a notable one-day ETF-related sell-off near $82K, reportedly the largest since January when $BTC was around $86K.
View Chart
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⚖️Distribution or Accumulation? ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay discusses Institutional and OTC flow on #Bitcoin.
🟩 During $BTC’s recent recovery from the bottom, Institutional Custody Netflow moving closer to positive territory while price holds near $80K despite negative OTC pressure, may suggest seller fatigue and early supply absorption.
🟥 However, positive netflow does not automatically confirm accumulation, especially with OTC flow still volatile and institutional activity not yet in a sustained positive phase. #BTC is recovering, but the previous main downtrend has not been clearly broken.
🧙♀️ Holding above the $80K region would keep the structure constructive and support the view that selling pressure is absorbed, while failing to achieve this level in the short term could increase the risk of a stronger downside move.
View Chart
🟩 During $BTC’s recent recovery from the bottom, Institutional Custody Netflow moving closer to positive territory while price holds near $80K despite negative OTC pressure, may suggest seller fatigue and early supply absorption.
🟥 However, positive netflow does not automatically confirm accumulation, especially with OTC flow still volatile and institutional activity not yet in a sustained positive phase. #BTC is recovering, but the previous main downtrend has not been clearly broken.
🧙♀️ Holding above the $80K region would keep the structure constructive and support the view that selling pressure is absorbed, while failing to achieve this level in the short term could increase the risk of a stronger downside move.
View Chart
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🔎What is OTC Buy-Side Liquidity Flow?
Not all Bitcoin buying pressure appears on exchanges.
⭐️ OTC Buy-Side Liquidity Flow tracks how buy-side liquidity builds in the OTC market, helping traders monitor changes in off-exchange demand that may not be visible through regular exchange flow data.
🧙♂️ Because sometimes, the most important liquidity is not on the exchange.🤫
View Chart
Not all Bitcoin buying pressure appears on exchanges.
⭐️ OTC Buy-Side Liquidity Flow tracks how buy-side liquidity builds in the OTC market, helping traders monitor changes in off-exchange demand that may not be visible through regular exchange flow data.
🧙♂️ Because sometimes, the most important liquidity is not on the exchange.🤫
View Chart
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