📝 ForeDex Author Lukasz Wydra

" Stablecoin Exchange Reserve " is currently reaching levels last seen when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading close to $110,000 (last upward move before ATH).

As a reminder, BTC is now over 28% below that price 📉

What’s important here, this is not the commonly referenced Stablecoins Circulating Supply.
This metric reflects only the stablecoins held on exchanges, effectively isolating the capital that is actively positioned for trading, rather than sitting idle off-exchange.


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📝 ForeDex Author OnChainBR

"Net Realized Profit/Loss", measures the net dollar difference between realized profits and losses on the blockchain. When it goes negative, more people are selling at a loss than at a profit. That is capitulation..

The two red rectangles on the chart tell the story.

The first one, in 2025, was when Bitcoin was in the 74k region. The NRPL dropped aggressively into negative territory, confirming that the market was capitulating, holders selling below their cost basis, weak hands leaving.

The second rectangle, now in 2026, shows exactly the same pattern repeating itself in the current correction, with price around 78k and the indicator moving back into negative territory.

The important difference is in the context. In 2025 the bottom came after months of decline. Now the negative NRPL is appearing at a higher price level, which suggests that the sellers taking losses are recent buyers, not long term holders unwinding their positions.- Read More


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📝 ForeDex Author Leo Ruga

BTC price just above MSTR's average cost basis at $76K. Holding it.

Every time price dropped below this cost basis and recovered above it, a significant uptrend followed. Green circles on the chart. Two false signals along the way that broke above but fell hard after, but the pattern held.

Right now we're sitting just above that line. Holding it as support.

I'd love to see this level work as a structural floor. Not the usual LTH realized price but the cost basis of one of the largest corporate holders in the market acting as the bottom for this cycle.

Not a specific price. A zone. As I constantly say.

Could this be a behavioral change?

It's a thesis, not a certainty. We still have a possibility of dropping to new lows. But according to this chart, this looks like the beginning of a trend, not the end of one... 🤝


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📝 ForeDex Author Rei Researcher

Bitcoin is trading around $80k, while the Variance model is currently at -1.5 (its deepest negative level in recent years), indicating that the BTC price is significantly lower than what scarcity would suggest.

Historically, periods of strongly negative variance have often preceded major price rallies (2019, 2022).
However, the current macro environment is exerting pressure: The #Fed is holding rates at 3.5-3.75%, the 30-year Treasury yield is ~5%, recent ETF outflows, and liquidity has not eased significantly.

Bitcoin is in an undervalued state according to S2F, but is being held back by macro factors. The long-term outlook depends on a Fed pivot and improved liquidity.

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📝ForeDex Author TariqElliot links current rally to the LTH/STH Supply Ratio:

🔸Rise in indicator means that coins are moving from weak hands (speculators) to strong hands (long-term investors +155 days)
🔸Upward movement of the indicator line implies an accumulation phase, where whales hold on to their positions, making the rally more stable
🔸In summary, we are in a phase of strategic dominance, and the price is currently driven by investment conviction rather than just temporary FOMO

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📝Possible BTC Scenarios by ForeDex Author KaanChart :

Bitcoin’s upward momentum remains intact while approaching a monthly resistance zone, supported by rising futures taker Buy/Sell ratio, positive IBIT inflows and the market sentiment (The Fear and Greed Index).

🟢Holding above 79k-80k keeps the path open toward liquidity at 83k-87k.

🔴However, losing 79k could push the market into a deeper correction and rebalancing before resuming the trend.

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📝ForeDex Author OnChainBR compares the current OTC flow with the past:

"The OTC Buy-Side Liquidity Flow sits at 5.58k on May 5th, with the 14-day SMA at 3.58k and Bitcoin at 81k."

➡️ In 2024, strong OTC flows suggested major institutional Bitcoin accumulation, supporting the rally from around $40k to $100k.
➡️ But since late 2024, OTC flow has dropped sharply and stayed low, while price corrected from 100k to 74k region.
➡️ In 2026 the flow remains low at 5.58k, but price has recovered to 81k without the OTC support that existed in the previous cycle.

⭐️ The key point is that previous strong rallies were supported by high OTC flow, while the current move is rising without that same fuel.

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