Mercedes' (and RBR's?) "compression ratio trick" could be worth 4 tenths in Monza, and even more in the opening laps (~21s over a race: the difference between P2 and P6 this year)!
Let’s look at the numbers!
16:1 → mandated ’26 compression ratio (cold engine check)
18:1 → ’25 level (~ upper knock limit)
Reaching 18:1 in ’26 via thermal expansion would yield ~10 kW (~13 hp), requiring only a ~0.5 mm geometric change.
Currently, +13hp ICE power is worth ~0.26s/lap in Monza. But '26 ICEs will be far less powerful (~540hp vs ~840hp), so the same gain matters much more, since the ICE feeds the battery!
Let’s look at the numbers!
16:1 → mandated ’26 compression ratio (cold engine check)
18:1 → ’25 level (~ upper knock limit)
Reaching 18:1 in ’26 via thermal expansion would yield ~10 kW (~13 hp), requiring only a ~0.5 mm geometric change.
Currently, +13hp ICE power is worth ~0.26s/lap in Monza. But '26 ICEs will be far less powerful (~540hp vs ~840hp), so the same gain matters much more, since the ICE feeds the battery!
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Formula Data Analysis
Mercedes' (and RBR's?) "compression ratio trick" could be worth 4 tenths in Monza, and even more in the opening laps (~21s over a race: the difference between P2 and P6 this year)! Let’s look at the numbers! 16:1 → mandated ’26 compression ratio (cold engine…
Scaling the effect:
0.26 / 540 × 840 ≈ 0.4 s/lap
That means:
- More ICE power;
- More ERS power;
- Lighter car at race start (Higher thermal efficiency with fixed fuel flow → Better fuel economy → Less fuel load).
This mirrors the early ('14) V6 era, when Mercedes NEVER ran full power, and still dominated with a detuned engine!
Such a fundamental design advantage will be hard to copy before '27. That said, this is Mercedes' best-case scenario: its real impact might be smaller.
What are your expectations? 🤔
0.26 / 540 × 840 ≈ 0.4 s/lap
That means:
- More ICE power;
- More ERS power;
- Lighter car at race start (Higher thermal efficiency with fixed fuel flow → Better fuel economy → Less fuel load).
This mirrors the early ('14) V6 era, when Mercedes NEVER ran full power, and still dominated with a detuned engine!
Such a fundamental design advantage will be hard to copy before '27. That said, this is Mercedes' best-case scenario: its real impact might be smaller.
What are your expectations? 🤔
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Formula Data Analysis
Scaling the effect: 0.26 / 540 × 840 ≈ 0.4 s/lap That means: - More ICE power; - More ERS power; - Lighter car at race start (Higher thermal efficiency with fixed fuel flow → Better fuel economy → Less fuel load). This mirrors the early ('14) V6 era, when…
Some of the sources I started from come from this article:
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/everything-we-learned-about-impact-of-f1-2026s-loophole-controversy/
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/everything-we-learned-about-impact-of-f1-2026s-loophole-controversy/
The Race
No hope for rivals until 2027? The impact of F1's loophole controversy
What we've learned about the impact of F1 2026's big engine loophole controversy, why it's so complicated and what happens next
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I simulated a 🟥 2026 F1 car’s acceleration against 🟦 VER’s real Monza pole telemetry, and the result was shocking!
Narrower track + active aero slash drag, so 2026 cars accelerate much faster than ’25 cars.
ERS power will drop above 290 km/h, yet the drag reduction more than offsets the lower ICE power!
And that's without 'ERS Override': with that, maximum power will be retained until 337km/h!
After opening the DRS, the 2025 car did start closing the gap... but was still slower by the end of Monza's long straight!
I assumed a conservative 90% transmission efficiency for '26 and picked Monza to minimise ’25 drag… yet the acceleration gap stayed massive!
2026 cars will be ROCKETS! 🚀
Narrower track + active aero slash drag, so 2026 cars accelerate much faster than ’25 cars.
ERS power will drop above 290 km/h, yet the drag reduction more than offsets the lower ICE power!
And that's without 'ERS Override': with that, maximum power will be retained until 337km/h!
After opening the DRS, the 2025 car did start closing the gap... but was still slower by the end of Monza's long straight!
I assumed a conservative 90% transmission efficiency for '26 and picked Monza to minimise ’25 drag… yet the acceleration gap stayed massive!
2026 cars will be ROCKETS! 🚀
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🟪2025 vs 🟩2026
KEY DIFFERENCES 👇
- HUGE central inlet (~3× ERS power → far higher cooling needs);
- Radical front suspension rethink: much flatter upper wishbone and switch from PULL-rod to PUSH-rod;
- TINY front wingspan (+ active aero actuator);
- Far more complex endplate and outboard section.
The Pull→Push-rod switch, mainly aero-driven, is major and potentially critical (Ferrari’s failed push→pull change last year is a warning).
We still need clearer shots of the lower wishbone to assess anti-dive.
Intriguing design: 2026 F1 cars look radically different! 😁
KEY DIFFERENCES 👇
- HUGE central inlet (~3× ERS power → far higher cooling needs);
- Radical front suspension rethink: much flatter upper wishbone and switch from PULL-rod to PUSH-rod;
- TINY front wingspan (+ active aero actuator);
- Far more complex endplate and outboard section.
The Pull→Push-rod switch, mainly aero-driven, is major and potentially critical (Ferrari’s failed push→pull change last year is a warning).
We still need clearer shots of the lower wishbone to assess anti-dive.
Intriguing design: 2026 F1 cars look radically different! 😁
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2026 Mercedes: Comparison & Mass Analysis
The new Mercedes W17 DOES have sidepods - and keeps W16’s front and rear push-rod suspension layout.
The size reduction is striking: Mercedes’ wheelbase is over 30 cm shorter than in 2021, yet the car is 18 kg heavier!
DO NOT read on unless you're a nerd!
If a 2021 F1 car were simply scaled down to a 2026-style wheelbase, its mass would be:
752 × (3400 / 3724)³ = 572.3 kg
(since volume - and mass - scale with the cube of length).
Yet the 2026 car is almost 200 kg heavier than that! Why?
- F1 cars have very low “effective density”: much of the mass sits in components (e.g. PU) that don’t shrink when the car gets shorter.
- Some parts got HEAVIER, most notably the jump from 13″ to 18″ wheels.
A more conservative way to estimate the ‘expected’ mass is:
Wheelbase 3724mm → 3400mm
Track 2000mm → 1900mm
Same height
752*(3400/3724)*(1900/2000)=652.2kg, or still ~120kg less than the 2026 mandated minimum
The new Mercedes W17 DOES have sidepods - and keeps W16’s front and rear push-rod suspension layout.
The size reduction is striking: Mercedes’ wheelbase is over 30 cm shorter than in 2021, yet the car is 18 kg heavier!
DO NOT read on unless you're a nerd!
If a 2021 F1 car were simply scaled down to a 2026-style wheelbase, its mass would be:
752 × (3400 / 3724)³ = 572.3 kg
(since volume - and mass - scale with the cube of length).
Yet the 2026 car is almost 200 kg heavier than that! Why?
- F1 cars have very low “effective density”: much of the mass sits in components (e.g. PU) that don’t shrink when the car gets shorter.
- Some parts got HEAVIER, most notably the jump from 13″ to 18″ wheels.
A more conservative way to estimate the ‘expected’ mass is:
Wheelbase 3724mm → 3400mm
Track 2000mm → 1900mm
Same height
752*(3400/3724)*(1900/2000)=652.2kg, or still ~120kg less than the 2026 mandated minimum
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Ferrari's SF-26 looks 'basic': very simple endplates and bulky bodywork... this might be a 'base-spec' to be significantly developed! 👀
💡Interesting bits:
- The minimal centerline cooling makes up for the huge sidepod inlets (the opposite of Racing Bulls!) → Lower CoG, cleaner rear wing airflow.
- This is the first real car with an inwashing front wing.
- Back to front push-rod. Very rearward-rotated upper wishbone.
- Stepped shark fin.
- From video, the car has almost no rake.
- The bargeboard stays have an intriguing shape!
Considering Ferrari's frequent development issues, starting from a simple base might be a pro, not a cons.
Tifosi: "Is this our year? Or next year?"
💡Interesting bits:
- The minimal centerline cooling makes up for the huge sidepod inlets (the opposite of Racing Bulls!) → Lower CoG, cleaner rear wing airflow.
- This is the first real car with an inwashing front wing.
- Back to front push-rod. Very rearward-rotated upper wishbone.
- Stepped shark fin.
- From video, the car has almost no rake.
- The bargeboard stays have an intriguing shape!
Considering Ferrari's frequent development issues, starting from a simple base might be a pro, not a cons.
Tifosi: "Is this our year? Or next year?"
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Formula Data Analysis
Ferrari's SF-26 looks 'basic': very simple endplates and bulky bodywork... this might be a 'base-spec' to be significantly developed! 👀 💡Interesting bits: - The minimal centerline cooling makes up for the huge sidepod inlets (the opposite of Racing Bulls!)…
X (formerly Twitter)
Formula Data Analysis (@FDataAnalysis) on X
Front + Rear active aero is finally here!
@ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton #F1
@ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton #F1
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The 3 Ferrari-engined F1 cars have VASTLY different cooling solutions!
🔴 Ferrari:
- Upper Intake: medium-sized, triangular
- Sidepods inlets: very complex geometry
⚪️ Haas:
- Upper: Largest (triangle + side inlets)
- Side: Simple, rectangular
⚫️ Cadillac:
- Upper: Tiny triangle + small side inlets
- Side: U-shaped
Sidepod designs differ greatly, too (less sculpted for Ferrari, more for Haas, boxiest for Cadillac).
This difference in design means that there might be space left to 'shrink' them for aerodynamic gains.
Unrelated: I LOVE Cadillac's livery! Similar colour-scheme to my logo... 😇
What's YOUR favourite thus far?
🔴 Ferrari:
- Upper Intake: medium-sized, triangular
- Sidepods inlets: very complex geometry
⚪️ Haas:
- Upper: Largest (triangle + side inlets)
- Side: Simple, rectangular
⚫️ Cadillac:
- Upper: Tiny triangle + small side inlets
- Side: U-shaped
Sidepod designs differ greatly, too (less sculpted for Ferrari, more for Haas, boxiest for Cadillac).
This difference in design means that there might be space left to 'shrink' them for aerodynamic gains.
Unrelated: I LOVE Cadillac's livery! Similar colour-scheme to my logo... 😇
What's YOUR favourite thus far?
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I can’t quite make sense of Mercedes’ front-wing actuation choice
- They’re the ONLY team not exploiting the 30 mm drag-reducing deflection allowed on the 🔵 primary flap, keeping it fixed. 🤯
- They rely solely on the 🟡 secondary flap’s 60 mm deflection.
Expect a less-loaded secondary plane to limit straight-line drag, with a more-loaded upper plane to compensate.
It’s the most puzzling thing I’ve seen so far. There must be an upside, but for now, only the downside is obvious. 🤔
Mercedes is famous for their clever solutions (e.g. DAS).
What's YOUR opinion?
- They’re the ONLY team not exploiting the 30 mm drag-reducing deflection allowed on the 🔵 primary flap, keeping it fixed. 🤯
- They rely solely on the 🟡 secondary flap’s 60 mm deflection.
Expect a less-loaded secondary plane to limit straight-line drag, with a more-loaded upper plane to compensate.
It’s the most puzzling thing I’ve seen so far. There must be an upside, but for now, only the downside is obvious. 🤔
Mercedes is famous for their clever solutions (e.g. DAS).
What's YOUR opinion?
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Formula Data Analysis
I can’t quite make sense of Mercedes’ front-wing actuation choice - They’re the ONLY team not exploiting the 30 mm drag-reducing deflection allowed on the 🔵 primary flap, keeping it fixed. 🤯 - They rely solely on the 🟡 secondary flap’s 60 mm deflection. …
Notice how Ferrari's solution acts on both planes, while Mercedes' only changes the angle of the upper plane (while the lower one remains fixed).
Expect Mercedes' solution to be less effective in terms of drag reduction, but it might produce benefits when in 'cornering mode'.
https://x.com/FDataAnalysis/status/2016533128207118724
Expect Mercedes' solution to be less effective in terms of drag reduction, but it might produce benefits when in 'cornering mode'.
https://x.com/FDataAnalysis/status/2016533128207118724
X (formerly Twitter)
Formula Data Analysis (@FDataAnalysis) on X
Notice how Ferrari's solution acts on both planes, while Mercedes' only changes the angle of the upper plane (while the lower one remains fixed)
Expect Mercedes' solution to be less effective in terms of drag reduction, but it might produce benefits when…
Expect Mercedes' solution to be less effective in terms of drag reduction, but it might produce benefits when…
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This is, BY FAR, the best article I've ever read on the 2026 #F1 regulations, a must-read for any fan to get started with the new season! 💡
Written by F1 commentator @GaborWeber , I was honoured to contribute to it and to review it, together with two F1 professionals! 😏
Exciting read ahead:
https://wgmotorsport.hu/cikk/total-reset
Written by F1 commentator @GaborWeber , I was honoured to contribute to it and to review it, together with two F1 professionals! 😏
Exciting read ahead:
https://wgmotorsport.hu/cikk/total-reset
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Some of the main topics discussed in the article:
How Formula 1 changes in 2026
"One of the biggest rule shake-up in Formula 1’s 76-year history arrives this year—so wide-ranging that its real-world consequences are genuinely hard to predict."
- Aerodynamics and Bodywork: Smaller, Lighter, Less Downforce
- The Internal Combustion Engine: Less Fuel, New Constraints
- Energy Recovery: More Powerful, More Demanding, More Strategic
- Fuel Revolution: Sustainable, Synthetic, and Strategically Different
- Driver workload will increase
"2026 will therefore bring truly far-reaching changes for teams, designers, and drivers alike, and these challenges are so complex and wide-ranging that it is almost impossible for anyone to get everything right on the first attempt. [...] Meanwhile, the clock is ticking fast: in just over a month, the race-ready cars will already need to be shipped to Melbourne."
How Formula 1 changes in 2026
"One of the biggest rule shake-up in Formula 1’s 76-year history arrives this year—so wide-ranging that its real-world consequences are genuinely hard to predict."
- Aerodynamics and Bodywork: Smaller, Lighter, Less Downforce
- The Internal Combustion Engine: Less Fuel, New Constraints
- Energy Recovery: More Powerful, More Demanding, More Strategic
- Fuel Revolution: Sustainable, Synthetic, and Strategically Different
- Driver workload will increase
"2026 will therefore bring truly far-reaching changes for teams, designers, and drivers alike, and these challenges are so complex and wide-ranging that it is almost impossible for anyone to get everything right on the first attempt. [...] Meanwhile, the clock is ticking fast: in just over a month, the race-ready cars will already need to be shipped to Melbourne."
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Big design differences in the top 4 WCC teams' front wings! 💡
🟠 McL: Complex design, featuring an outboard winglet! Loaded midspan.
⚫️ Merc: fixed primary flap, only the secondary can move → potentially less drag reduction.
🔵 RBR: Primary flap 'flat' (no camber).
🔴 Ferrari: only one to have the front wing actuator ON the wing (and not inside the nose) → could disrupt airflow?
Expect wings to look different in Melbourne!
🟠 McL: Complex design, featuring an outboard winglet! Loaded midspan.
⚫️ Merc: fixed primary flap, only the secondary can move → potentially less drag reduction.
🔵 RBR: Primary flap 'flat' (no camber).
🔴 Ferrari: only one to have the front wing actuator ON the wing (and not inside the nose) → could disrupt airflow?
Expect wings to look different in Melbourne!
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My prediction was right: 2026 F1 cars will be WAY faster on the straights! 🚀
Esteban Ocon reached 355 km/h once he was allowed full deployment, and no evidence of slipstream!
In his best '25 quali lap, he reached 'just' 327km/h - and he mentioned reaching the top speed EARLIER on the straight in '26.
The drag drop is massive (-37%), even assuming the ’25 car was in full ERS harvest (–120 kW), to be subtracted from ~615 kW ICE power (~840 hp). The ’26 car was +28 km/h faster despite a ≥95 kW (130 hp) power deficit.
Back in December, I predicted CxA = 0.66 → 359 km/h top speed, very close to real data (355 km/h → 0.68).
💡At least one (likely both) is true:
- The new cars have extremely low drag.
- Ferrari's new ICE is stronger than F1 predicted (400kW).
What’s certain: these cars will fly on the straights - and Catalunya isn’t even low-drag!
[CxA from drag POWER: 0.5ρCxAv^3 = ICEpower@vMax, ρ≈1.22]
Esteban Ocon reached 355 km/h once he was allowed full deployment, and no evidence of slipstream!
In his best '25 quali lap, he reached 'just' 327km/h - and he mentioned reaching the top speed EARLIER on the straight in '26.
The drag drop is massive (-37%), even assuming the ’25 car was in full ERS harvest (–120 kW), to be subtracted from ~615 kW ICE power (~840 hp). The ’26 car was +28 km/h faster despite a ≥95 kW (130 hp) power deficit.
Back in December, I predicted CxA = 0.66 → 359 km/h top speed, very close to real data (355 km/h → 0.68).
💡At least one (likely both) is true:
- The new cars have extremely low drag.
- Ferrari's new ICE is stronger than F1 predicted (400kW).
What’s certain: these cars will fly on the straights - and Catalunya isn’t even low-drag!
[CxA from drag POWER: 0.5ρCxAv^3 = ICEpower@vMax, ρ≈1.22]
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***FIRST LOOK AT 2026 TELEMETRY***
VER’s top speed was already +24 km/h vs his best 2025 quali lap. 😳
Conversely, Stroll barely exceeded 300 km/h due to Honda PU issues - Alonso PTSD incoming ⚠️
VER lapped 4.375s slower than in quali, yet was already gaining time on the two main straights...
Clipping (speed drop at full-throttle from ERS power cut-off) looks better than expected: good news, F1 fans!
[Cadillac and Alpine telemetry unavailable...]
VER’s top speed was already +24 km/h vs his best 2025 quali lap. 😳
Conversely, Stroll barely exceeded 300 km/h due to Honda PU issues - Alonso PTSD incoming ⚠️
VER lapped 4.375s slower than in quali, yet was already gaining time on the two main straights...
Clipping (speed drop at full-throttle from ERS power cut-off) looks better than expected: good news, F1 fans!
[Cadillac and Alpine telemetry unavailable...]
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Verstappen: "As a pure driver, I enjoy driving flat out, and at the moment, you cannot drive like that."
He was right, look at Turn 12: LEC and NOR were full-gas for ~300m, yet their cars couldn't exceed 240km/h! 😳
2026 F1 Rules allow the ERS to generate NEGATIVE power (recharge battery) when the driver is full-gas, up to -250kW. As the ICE power is ~400kW, the resulting power is as little as 400-250=150 kW... about half that of a Formula 3! ⚠️
The driver is full throttle, yet it's the software that decides whether power should be 200hp (240km/h in T12) or 1000hp (330km/h on the main straight), or something in between: the engineers have more control on the instantaneous power than the driver!
Therefore, LEC and NOR didn't have to lift in T12, as the power was controlled electronically there.
[...]
He was right, look at Turn 12: LEC and NOR were full-gas for ~300m, yet their cars couldn't exceed 240km/h! 😳
2026 F1 Rules allow the ERS to generate NEGATIVE power (recharge battery) when the driver is full-gas, up to -250kW. As the ICE power is ~400kW, the resulting power is as little as 400-250=150 kW... about half that of a Formula 3! ⚠️
The driver is full throttle, yet it's the software that decides whether power should be 200hp (240km/h in T12) or 1000hp (330km/h on the main straight), or something in between: the engineers have more control on the instantaneous power than the driver!
Therefore, LEC and NOR didn't have to lift in T12, as the power was controlled electronically there.
[...]
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Formula Data Analysis
Verstappen: "As a pure driver, I enjoy driving flat out, and at the moment, you cannot drive like that." He was right, look at Turn 12: LEC and NOR were full-gas for ~300m, yet their cars couldn't exceed 240km/h! 😳 2026 F1 Rules allow the ERS to generate…
Compared to 🟧NOR, 🟥LEC:
- 🟡 Had more deployment on the main straight 🔋(gaining 0.2s) but 🟢 less at lap-end. 🪫
- 🔵 Braker later, losing on exit.
- ⚪️ Lifted way less in T6-7, due to better downforce and/or confidence.
What's your opinion?
- 🟡 Had more deployment on the main straight 🔋(gaining 0.2s) but 🟢 less at lap-end. 🪫
- 🔵 Braker later, losing on exit.
- ⚪️ Lifted way less in T6-7, due to better downforce and/or confidence.
What's your opinion?
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