SPAIN PREVIEW 🏎📊

Softest (Monaco) to Hardest Compounds!

Medium/High Downforce.

Cornering is king.

Very high tyre stress, esp. the front left. 🛞🔥

The medium/high-speed corners should suit McLaren, but the ‘Flexy-wing’ ban could shake the order!💡

2024:
🥇🔵VER
🥈🟠NOR
🥉⚫️HAM


What’s your prediction for 2025? 🤔


📸 @pirellisport

Thank you, everyone: we’ve increased the signature count by 4400, and it’s currently the largest F1-related petition on https://Change.org! 🤝

The Mayor’s spokesperson who contacted me is extremely pleased (and surprised) with the result: maybe we made a difference! 🤞🍀

The 'flexy-wing' clampdown is here: it will hurt several teams, and some more than others 🚨

Making the front wing flex provides two benefits:
✅Less drag on straights;
✅Aero balance (lower front downforce coefficient at high speed ➡️balance shifts towards understeer ➡️more stable at high speed).

Several teams (McL, Mercedes, Ferrari, etc) stiffened their front wing to comply (notice McLaren's additional bracket).

To my understanding, ⚫️Mercedes' wing flexed the most, then 🟠McL, then 🔴Ferrari/🔵RBR.

@dr_obbs came to similar conclusions. This could make Mercedes slide further back, and allow Ferrari and RBR to catch up with McLaren.

This will get spicy! 🔥

- The maximum vertical deflection cannot exceed 15mm (was 20mm before) when a 1000N force is applied symmetrically, and 10mm (was 15mm) when it is applied to just one side.
- The deflection of the trailing edge cannot exceed 3mm (was 5mm before).

So a 25%-40% reduction: significant!

SPANISH GP - FP2

1) TOP SPEEDS:
We still don't know which teams were hurt the most by the 'Flexy front wing' clampdown, but one thing is sure:
McLaren, usually a draggy car, had an excellent top speed in FP2! 😬

The telemetry suggests a PU mode similar to their competitors'.

So, what happened is either:
- McL wasn't hurt as expected relative to others;
- They ran a slightly less loaded front wing than otherwise (rear too, for balance): unchanged drag, yet lost some downforce.

2) BEST MINISECTORS:

It wasn't just the top speed: 🟠PIA was quicker than 🟢RUS and 🔵VER at the end of all full-throttle sections, indicating low drag.

Yet, RUS could stay full-throttle through T9: his very loaded rear wing gave him excellent downforce!
(PIA and VER lifter.)

For the real F1-nerds among you: the repository containing the 65 analyses I've already made about the race weekend 🤫👇

https://buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/spanish-gp-analyses-repository-3727910

SPANISH GP - PRACTICE 2 | UPDATE

McLaren used the following, less loaded rear wing in FP2, after testing it alongside a more conventional spec in FP1.

This explains their unusually high top speed (as the car is normally quite draggy), still their downforce looked solid despite that.

SPANISH GP - LONG RUNS (FP2)

🔴 SOFT
1) 🟦VER 1:19.918
2) 🟧NOR 1.20:220
3) 🟥LEC 1:20.287
4) 🟩RUS 1.20:847

🟡 MEDIUM
1) 🟧NOR 1:18.76 ‼️
2) 🟦VER 1.20:088
3) 🟥LEC 1.20:675

My take:
- NOR's pace on mediums was incredible;
- VER was unusually strong in his long runs (RBR has been running a lot of fuel + low engine modes in FP2 most weekends);
- Soft looks viable, but Medium is the better tyre.

What's YOUR prediction? 🤔

SPANISH GP - RACE PACE

🟦 Verstappen was quickest on average but scored only 1 point: his extra stop cost him time and forced a restart on Hards. Contact with RUS was the final nail in the coffin.
RBR used TEN tyre sets in total! 😳

🟧 PIA was the fastest three-stopper; 🟧 NOR just 0.06s/lap slower; 🟥 LEC was further off but quick enough to grab the podium.

🟥 HAM never found the pace, 0.28s/lap slower than his teammate on average. Swapping them was the right call.

🟩 HUL maximised his chances.

McLaren’s supposed drop in pace from the flexi-wing clampdown? Nowhere to be found. 😬

SPANISH GP TOP & MINIMUM SPEEDS

TOP SPEEDS
- OCO reached 345km/h in the race, but TSU was fastest on average: 339km/h 🚀(average of his 15 highest speeds).
- HAM and PIA never used DRS.💡

MIN SPEEDS
- VER, PIA, and NOR had the highest speed in the slowest corner.👌
- Sauber's mechanical grip was lacking, it seems: lowest figures for HUL and BOR.

AVERAGE QUALIFYING GAP AFTER 9 RACES

📈 Evolution (upper graph).
📊 Season average (lower graph).

🟠 McL has been almost flawless in quali this year; their largest gap to pole was just 0.065s😬 (Miami).

Mercedes was quicker than 🔴 Ferrari in all races except for Japan (practically matched) and Monaco.

SPANISH GP - QUALIFYING | 2025 vs 2024

Williams’ performance in the SpanishGP quali was their 2025 worst gap-wise, yet they were the only team to improve their 2024 laptime: that’s how bad last year’s car was!

[Track conditions were worse this year.]

Mercedes, Aston, and McL gained over the other teams. Ferrari lost ~0.15s to them, but RBR was far worse (~0.28s lost to McL)!

What does a tow look like from the telemetry?
Let’s take a look! 👀

Quali laps:
⚫️Reference (no tow)
🟢Tow

1) The tow reduces drag➡️Less power is spent fighting drag, and more of it accelerates the car
2) Car gets off the tow: by then, the lap with tow has the car travelling faster, so its acceleration becomes LOWER (more speed ➡️ More drag and less wheel torque)
3) Both reach terminal speed, but the towed car hits a higher top speed, likely due to saved battery energy being deployed later! ⚡️🔋

As the tow stops, the longitudinal acceleration drops below that of the car without a tow.
However, if the longitudinal acceleration is plotted against the SPEED (red box), not the distance, the acceleration for the car with tow is always higher, as expected! (Always remember to remove confounding variables 😃.)

I hope I showed you something new today! 📚


Made via @JMP_software

CANADIAN GP - PRACTICE 1 ANALYSIS

SECTOR GAPS IN FP1 📊

Albon fastest in S1 and S3, Norris in S2 (but SAI was just 0.003s behind him)!

CANADIAN GP - FP2 DATA SUMMARY

TOP SPEED:

- Red Bull had the lowest drag ➡️Best top speed; opposite for Haas;
- Purple sectors by 3 cars: NOR quickest in S1, ALB in S2, RUS in S3;
- Williams: real pace;
- RUS had a higher engine mode than NOR, who was stronger under braking and had less drag.

Read on!
(1/4)👇

BEST SECTOR GAP:

HAM struggled the most in S3, but Ferrari's performance was underwhelming everywhere.

RUS was quickest in S3 (2 straights, one chicane), where his medium tyre impacted him less. His higher engine mode helped him there, though.

The third sector was Williams' sole weakness.

(2/4)👇

RUS vs NOR Telemetry:

On most straights, RUS gained vs NOR once they could go full-throttle (around 200km/h): this indicates a higher engine mode, or possibly less fuel onboard.

Instead, NOR gained in the last part of the straight: McL seems to have a drag advantage.

(3/4)👇

I'm now going to the beach, but before doing that, I've uploaded all the FP1 and FP2 analyses to my analyses repository, which all those who support the page can access! 👇

Enjoy the race weekend, everyone! 🔥

https://buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/canadian-gp-analyses-repository-3763140

CANADIAN GP - PRACTICE 2 | LONG RUNS

- Everyone on Mediums:
- 🟢 RUS/ANT did the longest stint (13 laps). RUS had 25 laps-old tyres by the end, yet he was quickest on average!
- 🟢 Mercedes and 🟠 McLaren are looking great.
- 🔵 VER, often on low PU modes/full tank in long runs, looks quick too.
- 🔴 HAM: No quicker than the two 🔵 Williams.