Canadian GP PREVIEW:

- Stop&Go track ➡️ Traction (like Monaco) and Braking crucial!
- Medium/Low wing load: Just enough downforce for stable braking and good traction/cornering; avoid excessive drag.

🔴Ferrari and 🟠McL should be strong and close to 🔵VER.

What’s YOUR prediction? 🤔

I don’t expect Mercedes, and even less so Aston, to be on Ferrari’s and McLaren’s level here.

Let’s see how the outlook changes after FP2!

In 2026, F1 cars:

- Will get 0.2m shorter and 0.1m narrower➡️30kg lighter (still 16kg heavier than in ‘21).
- Active aero: Z-mode vs X-mode (more downforce and drag).
- DRS replaced by a ‘push to pass’ button➡️increased power after 290km/h.
- More powerful ERS.

👍 or 👎?

Additionally, the car’s downforce is expected to drop by ~30%; drag should be reduced too.

This, combined with the car’s lower average engine power, should produce worse laptimes compared to now, but should hopefully aid overtaking and make the sport more sustainable.

Rear Wings - Canadian GP

💡The track's long straights call for medium-low load, but the rain will make more loaded wings more beneficial.

🌧Rain will hit on Friday and Saturday, but not necessarily on Sunday: F1 teams have a bet to make!

Mercedes' has a unique wing design.

📸 @AlbertFabrega

The ‘26 #F1 rules will make it HARDER to overtake in tracks like Monaco💡

‘Manual Override Mode’ will replace the DRS:
- Electric power for the attacking driver: 350kw.
- It will decrease linearly over 290km/h for the defending one.📉

But most cars don’t reach 290km/h in Monaco!⚠️

This problem is not unique to Monaco: it also applies to ‘conventional’, high-downforce race tracks.

Hungary, for example: in the fastest lap of the race, VER only reached 301km/h on the main straight: he remained over 290km/h for less than 3s.

The FIA MUST make the speed threshold track-specific.

Weekly reminder that you can JOIN the CHAT channel to discuss my analyses OUTSIDE of the 'comments'!
👇Use this link👇
https://t.iss.one/FDataAnCHAT

Weekly reminder that you can JOIN the CHAT channel to discuss my analyses OUTSIDE of the 'comments'!
👇Use this link👇
https://t.iss.one/FDataAnCHAT

The best 2 laps from FP2 compared: spot the differences!🔍

ALO vs RUS (lighter green, 0.46s slower)

Aston and Merc showed very similar performance
Straight-line speed was identical

ALO consistently braked later: he gained under braking, losing little time on corner exit👌

TOP SPEEDS

🔴 LEC didn't use DRS on his best lap: that explains his low top speed (he lost over 0.4s due to that alone).

🔵Racing Bulls's low-load wing will be useful in the dry, but also a problem under the rain.

Aston/Merc/RBR were close.

🟠McL looking draggy.

This time I tried to condense the information of several analyses into a single tweet: let me know if you enjoyed it, and I will do that again in the future!

And is you want to see 10 times the analyses I've got you covered!👇

https://buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/canadian-gp-analyses-repository

BEST QUALIFYING SECTORS📊

S1 (Slowest): VER quickest, RUS 0.07s behind.

S2 (Medium speed): HAM and RUS quickest. VER just 6th.

S3 (Fastest): RUS quickest; McL had the worst top speed yet was competitive here (fast in the hairpin+chicane).

Ferrari uncompetitive everywhere⚠️

Ferrari's unexpected elimination in Q2 seems to have been influenced by the cold weather: the SF-24 is very gentle on its tyres, so it struggles to heat them up quickly.

McL's top speed was the slowest of them all (just 323km/h, vs Aston's 331, Merc/RBR's 328, and Ferrari's 327).

Longitudinal/Lateral Grip

🟡VER's braking was unmatched:
~0.5g higher than RUS
~1g higher than NOR
Trail braking was superior, too.

🟠NOR's braking (and left corners) were far worse.

🟢RUS was consistently close to the car's (inferior) grip limits: well done!

How much was Russell's slipstream (from ALB) worth?💡

RUS Best Lap: 1:11.742, 328km/h
RUS Pole Lap: 1:12.000, 334km/h (+6), ~0.07s gained

Would have been P3 without that (behind NOR).

Different ERS for HAM: only 324 on the main straight, but quicker on all the others.

LONG RUNS FROM F1 FP3 (M tyres):

🔴Sainz quickest: Ferrari couldn't extract the car's potential in qualifying. Their pace should aid their comeback.

Still, 0.9s/lap away from last year's race-winning pace (most teams were far from their limits).

🟠No representative runs from McL.

As even the quickest driver (SAI) was almost 1s/lap off verstappen’s pace last year we can conclude that the FP3 was not very representative.

More suspense for the race!

Comments on Canadian GP!

- Another multi-team fight: RBR/McL/Ferrari in Imola, Ferrari/McL in Monaco, RBR/McL/Merc here
- Ferrari’s worst result since Aus ‘23. Engine issues, no grip, bad strategy
- Solid Aston
- RIC’s P8 silences his critics
- Double points for Alpine

YOUR take?🤔

RACE PACE Canadian GP:

🟠NOR had the best pace, but🟡VER was just 0.03s/lap behind: a McL victory was in the cards.

🟢After passing ALO, HAM's pace was clearly better: he matched VER since the restart. If only he qualified P6...

🔴Driving on HARD slicks under the rain =💀

This version of the plot includes only the drivers who covered over 90% of the laps, for which the comparison is more representative (same track conditions and average fuel levels).