Europe Elects Official
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The official Telegram account for Europe Elects: providing polling aggregation and analysis from all over Europe.

https://europeelects.eu
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#France, Ifop poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Philippe runs as Ensemble (RE) candidate)

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 34%
Philippe (HOR-RE): 27% (+3)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 9% (-4)
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 6% (+1.5)
Tondelier (LÉ-G/EFA): 5% (+3)
Wauquiez (LR-EPP): 4% (-1)
Faure (PS-S&D): 4% (-0.5)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 3.5% (-1.5)
Lassalle (R!-*): 3% (+1)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2% (-1)
Poutou (NPA-LEFT): 1.5%
Arthaud (LO-*): 1% (-0.5)

+/- vs. 16-18 April 2024

Fieldwork: 6-9 September 2024
Sample size: 1,107

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Attal runs as Ensemble (RE) candidate)

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 35%
Attal (RE-RE): 24% (+4)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (-4)
Tondelier (LÉ-G/EFA): 6% (+3)
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 6% (+2)
Wauquiez (LR-EPP): 5% (-2)
Faure (PS-S&D): 4%
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 3% (-3)
Lassalle (R!-*): 3% (+1)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2%
Poutou (NPA-LEFT): 1% (-1)
Arthaud (LO-*): 1%

+/- vs. 16-18 April 2024

Fieldwork: 6-9 September 2024
Sample size: 1,107

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Hollande runs as PS (S&D) candidate and Philippe as Ensemble (RE) candidate)

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 34% (+2)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 26% (+2)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 9.5% (-2.5)
Hollande (PS-S&D): 8%
Tondelier (LÉ-G/EFA): 5% (n.a.)
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 5% (-0.5)
Wauquiez (LR-EPP): 4% (-1)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 3% (-3.5)
Lassalle (R!-*): 2%
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2%
Poutou (NPA-LEFT): 1% (-1)
Arthaud (LO-*): 0.5% (-0.5)

+/- vs. 16-18 April 2024

Fieldwork: 6-9 September 2024
Sample size: 1,107

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Hollande runs as PS (S&D) candidate and Attal as Ensemble (RE) candidate)

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 35% (+3)
Attal (RE-RE): 22% (n.a.)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (-2)
Hollande (PS-S&D): 7% (-1)
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 6% (+0.5)
Wauquiez (LR-EPP): 5%
Tondelier (LÉ-G/EFA): 5% (n.a.)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 3% (-3.5)
Lassalle (R!-*): 3% (+1)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2%
Poutou (NPA-LEFT): 1% (-1)
Arthaud (LO-*): 1%

+/- vs. 16-18 April 2024

Fieldwork: 6-9 September 2024
Sample size: 1,107

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Ardennes’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, first round today:

➤ Eligible voters: ~70,000
➤ Polls open: 8am-6pm CET
➤ Contesting: 11 candidates
➤ Electoral system: 2-round, single-member constituencies
➤ Incumbent party: RN (PfE) since 2024; Flavien Termet resigned for medical reasons.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Ardennes’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, first round:

Preliminary final results

Duflot (RN-PfE): 39% (+1)
Vuibert (*-RE): 25% (-1)
Maréchal (LR-EPP): 16% (+12)
Lerouge (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 11% (-7)
Talarico (*): 4% (n.a.)
D’Orgeville (EAC~G/EFA): 1% (-1)
Takawé (LO-*): 1%
North (*): 1% (n.a.)
De Causans (*): 1% (n.a.)
De Paris (*): 0% (n.a.)
Sandassi (*): 0% (n.a.)

+/- vs. July 2024 election

Jordan Duflot (RN-PfE) will face Lionel Vuibert (*-RE, formerly RE-RE) in the second round on December 8.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France: motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier (LR-EPP)

Majority: 288
Votes in favour of the motion: 331

Barnier lost the National Assembly’s confidence and president Emmanuel Macron (RE-RE) will have to nominate a new Prime Minister. The social security budget bill is also rejected.

After 1962, this is the second time in the history of the Fifth Republic that a motion of no confidence has been adopted.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Ardennes’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, second round:

Preliminary final results

Vuibert (*-RE): 50.9% (+4)
Duflot (RN-PfE): 49.1% (-4)

+/- vs. July 2024 election

Laurent Vuibert (*-RE) wins back the seat he held between 2022 and July 2024.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France: President Emmanuel Macron (RE-RE) has appointed François Bayrou (MoDem-RE) as Prime Minister and asked him to form a government.

Bayrou is the current High Commissioner of Planning, mayor of Pau, and president of the Mouvement démocrate (RE), which has been part of the presidential coalition since 2017. He also was a brief Minister of Justice in Édouard Philippe’s (HOR-RE) government, and a Minister of National Education under Prime Ministers Édouard Balladur (RPR-EDA) and Alain Juppé (RPR-EDA).

https://europeelects.eu/france
Forwarded from Oceania Elects Official
#France (New #Caledonia): the government presided over by Louis Mapou (Palika, Left) has fallen after a collective resignation by members of the Calédonie Ensemble (Liberal) list.
Mapou was the first ever pro-independence President of the government. Congress will elect a new one.

https://oceaniaelects.com/new-caledonia/
#France (Isères’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, first round today:

➤ Eligible voters: ~84,000
➤ Polls open: 8am-8pm CET
➤ Electoral system: 2-round, single-member constituencies
➤ Incumbent party: LFI-LEFT since 2024. Hugo Prevost resigned after accusations of sexual violence.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Isère’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, first round:

Preliminary final results

Louffok (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 28.2% (-12)
Galliard-Minier (RE-RE): 26.5% (-7.5)
Béranger (LR-EPP): 16.7% (+10)
Lacroix (LR/RN-EPP|PfE): 11% (-7)
Gerbi (DVC~RE): 7.7% (n.a.)
Offranc-Piret (EQX-*): 7.4% (n.a.)
Adam (LO-*): 0.7%
Anglade (NPA-LEFT): 0.6% (n.a.)
Périer (*): 0.4% (n.a.)
Jarry (PT~LEFT): 0.2% (n.a.)
Le Morzellec (*): 0% (n.a.)

Lyes Louffok and Camille Galliard-Minier advance to the second round, which will be held on January 19.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Isères’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, second round today:

➤ Eligible voters: ~84,000
➤ Polls open: 8am-8pm CET
➤ Electoral system: 2-round, single-member constituencies
➤ Incumbent party: LFI (LEFT) since 2024. Hugo Prevost resigned after accusations of sexual violence.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Isère’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, second round:

Preliminary final results

Galliard-Minier (RE-RE): 64.3%
Louffok (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 35.7%

Camille Galliard-Minier flips the seat back to Renaissance.

Note: there was a three-way runoff in 2024.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Hauts-de-Seine’s 9th constituency), national parliament by-election, first round:

Preliminary final results

de Maistre (LR-EPP): 59.7%
de Jerphanion (HOR-RE): 40.4%

Les Républicains (LR-EPP) pick up a seat in the National Assembly following Stéphane Séjourné’s (RE-RE) resignation. In the 2024 election in this department, LR and RE were in a coalition.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Scenario: PS-S&D leaves the NFP-LEFT|G/EFA

RN-PfE: 35%
Ensemble-RE: 15%
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA: 14%
LR-EPP: 13%
PS/PP-S&D: 13%
REC-ESN: 3%
Divers gauche-*: 2%
Divers droite-*: 1%
DLF→ECR: 1%
UDR-EPP: 1%
Far-left candidates-*: 1%
Divers-*: 1%

Fieldwork: 5-6 February 2025
Sample size: 1,377

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Scenario: LFI-LEFT leaves the NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D

RN-PfE: 35% (+1)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 19%
Ensemble-RE: 15% (-2)
LR-EPP: 12% (+4)
LFI-LEFT: 8% (-3)
REC-ESN: 3% (-1)
Divers gauche-*: 2.5% (-0.5)
Far-left candidates-*: 1.5% (+0.5)
Divers-*: 1.5% (+0.5)
Divers droite-*: 1% (-1)
DLF→ECR: 1% (n.a.)
UDR-EPP: 0.5% (n.a.)

+/- vs. 10-11 June 2024

Fieldwork: 5-6 February 2025
Sample size: 1,377

https://europeelects.eu/france