Record Numbers of Workers Are Raiding Their 401(k) Savings - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/record-numbers-of-workers-are-raiding-their-401-k-savings-bc89d5c3

EDWARD DOWD

China reportedly sets growth target for 2026 at 4.5% to 5% — lowest on record @CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/china-gdp-two-sessions-.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

EDWARD DOWD

Explain this

EDWARD DOWD

Just now on @.Bannons_WarRoom talking about the new poll on medical freedom.

EDWARD DOWD

Rubric Capital, a hedge fund founded by a former Point72 manager David Rosen, wrote a private letter to their LPs effectively saying private credit is a fraudulent bubble.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/some-private-credit-firms-are-using-accounting-tools-mask-leverage-rubric-2026-02-26/

EDWARD DOWD

Private credit anecdote:

I advised a friend a year ago with $500k burning a hole in his pocket. He was pitched a middle market BDC fund yielding 8%. He was focused on the monthly dividend check.

I said: “First that yield is too high and means there is risk there…secondly we are late in the credit cycle and you risk losing principal and liquidity. Why don’t you roll 3 month T-Bills at 4.3%.”

He did and he’s happy now.

EDWARD DOWD

On my 2026 bingo card, I did not have Glenn Beck interviewing AI George Washington on the Iran War.

EDWARD DOWD

New talking points.

In reality even if this War was definitively over by next week and Oil prices cooled off…the credit cycle has already turned, AI capex is slowing due to the former and 20% of the economy (housing) is rolling over. Plus China was already in the process of slowing. We are very likely already in recession with the Fed behind the eight ball.

Oil shocks are exogenous and cycles are endogenous.

So even with a “this wrapped up by next week” scenario the grand cycle is biting and will continue to bite.

Of course the markets would rally hard but IMHO the party would be short lived.

EDWARD DOWD

During the peak of the dot-com mania, a Berkshire shareholder told Buffett & Munger to “speculate” 10% into tech & software.

Their answer is a masterclass in discipline:

EDWARD DOWD

The Only Fix? Price (CLIP)- Ed Dowd and Melody Wright

EDWARD DOWD

Cargo ship struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, UK says @CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cargo-ship-struck-strait-of-hormuz-uk-iran-war.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

EDWARD DOWD

Winston Churchill on war: “Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that any one who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events….

EDWARD DOWD

During Covid I had Pharma trolls and now during private credit issues I have private credit bros coming into my comments.

Hey private credit bros…the economic late stage credit cycle means more than all of your silo expertise. It meaningless.

EDWARD DOWD

OMG Tucker Carlson reveals the terrifying truth: The neocons know air strikes won't topple Iran. They need American ground troops. And the only way they will get them is by waiting for or manufacturing another 9/11 style terror attack on US soil to justify it.

EDWARD DOWD

While everyone is focused on Private Credit housing continues to struggle. Home prices are 30% too high. The white swan continues.

Reminder housing is 20% of GDP
Homebuilder Lennar hitting new 52 week low.

“"Our first quarter of fiscal year 2026 was defined by the same persistent headwinds that have challenged the housing market for over three years — high mortgage rates, constrained affordability, cautious consumer sentiment, and geopolitical uncertainty, especially now including the recent conflict in Iran," Lennar Co-CEO Stuart Miller said.”

EDWARD DOWD

When you discover the CIA has been reading your texts in order to frame you for a crime.

EDWARD DOWD

They forced human separation for three years, wrecked a million small businesses, robbed a generation of two years of education, violated religious rights, to prepare for a mandated experimental shot – and we are supposed to FORGET about it? I don't think so.

https://covidjustice.org/

EDWARD DOWD

This article both leaks and summarizes an explosive ACIP report on vaccine injury and what to do about it.

https://blog.maryannedemasi.com/p/exclusive-leaked-report-to-federal

EDWARD DOWD

Study involving 1.7 million children has found that Myocarditis & Pericarditis only appeared in children who had received COVID mRNA vaccines.

Not a single unvaccinated child in the group suffered from these heart-related problems.

EDWARD DOWD

It's very curious that all the groups who organized protests against Trump earlier have not organized a single protest over this very unpopular war. Most of those so-called left-wing groups are actually controlled by Democratic leadership, who are obviously in favor of this war.

EDWARD DOWD