The stock market is currently at its final level of support 👀

As I mentioned the other week, the stock market has reached a boiling point just below ATHs, where we would either be seeing a massive move higher to new ATHs or the beginning of the next big crash.

As we can see, price is still holding very strong near ATHs, but it has struggled and failed to truly break out. Now we are sitting at the final line of support on the daily 200EMA. The last time this level was broken happened almost exactly a year ago, which resulted in a massive -17% move.

Now, not only has the stock market failed to break out and looks ready to roll over, but the tightly correlated 4 year cycle the crypto markets follow aligns with the 4 year cycle the stock market tends to follow. This would lead me to believe we will likely see the beginning of a stock bear market in the near future once we lose the daily 200EMA.

So keep a VERY close eye on this chart, as we are quite literally on the brink of seeing a huge pullback from the entire traditional markets…

Bitcoin is still chopping in its short term range… 👀

As I’ve mentioned before, Bitcoin is likely going to continue chopping between $72k and $65k until that range is broken. However, we are still likely to go lower in the long term, so here are a few scenarios I could see playing out in the next few weeks…

The first scenario is a failure to hold the range we are currently near the bottom of, which would likely cause us to break down from the range and retest the recent lows at $59k…

The second scenario is a retest and fakeout of our range to the upside to sweep liquidity, before breaking back down into the range and heading lower…

The third scenario I see playing out would be price neither breaking out OR breaking down from this range for at least another few weeks, maybe even over a month, and we just continue to go sideways for a while.

There’s always a possibility that we break out even higher, but I see that as highly unlikely since long term momentum is still very weak, and every macro chart is pointing toward us heading lower, as per my prior posts over the last few weeks.

As always, don’t take any trades until you get confirmation from price action. Keep a close eye on these charts 🤝

Bitcoin is moving exactly as I expected… 👀

Price action over the past 24 hours has been pretty boring, but it is also doing exactly as I expect. We have now retested the bottom of the trading range and look ready to either continue pushing higher to the top of the range, or fail to break out and break below the range.

Though, like I said yesterday, the macro charts are pointing towards us heading even lower in the long term, so any rallies here to the top of the range should be expected to be short lasting. Even if we manage to break out above this range, there is strong resistance around $75k, which price would likely not have enough bullish momentum to break through.

There could be some very solid trade setups over the next week or two, so make sure to keep a very close eye on these charts 🤝

Let’s take a quick look at the DXY’s weekly chart… 👀

For anyone who doesn’t already know, the DXY has a very large effect on the risk asset market, which includes both crypto and stocks. This means any bullish moves for the DXY tend to correspond with bearish moves for the risk asset markets.

With that being said, the DXY is currently looking quite bullish from a price action and momentum confluence perspective. The RSI is showing signs of underlying bullish momentum, while price is showing the early signs of a bull flag forming.

If this bullish momentum continues and the DXY starts to rally throughout 2026, it would lead me to believe risk assets are going to continue heading lower this year, which is also what the cyclical nature of crypto and stocks is suggesting.

This is a sign that could start to bring longer term concern for more downside in the risk asset market over the next 6–8 months. I highly recommend keeping a close eye on this chart…

Bitcoin looks like it’s ready to start its next leg down… 👀

As I said weeks ago, a loss of the 200EMA on the weekly chart would likely result in us falling out of our short-term trading range and also be the beginning of the next leg lower. And earlier today, we just saw Bitcoin close its first weekly candle below that level. It was only a few hours later that price saw mass volatility to the downside following the weekly candle close…

Historically, and over the past few weeks, the 200EMA has been a very strong level of support, so it was very obvious that this level being broken would result in more capitulation, like we’ve just seen. After this next move lower, I do think the worst of the bear market will already be behind us, and the next few months will be very choppy price action that slowly falls into a bottom.

Make sure you’re paying attention to the charts and don’t try to catch a falling knife during this crazy volatility 🤝

Let’s take a look at exactly when Bitcoin SHOULD see a bottom… 👀

With Bitcoin selling off again today, I’m starting to see a lot of people who believe the bottom is going to be in VERY soon or is ALREADY in. I would have to strongly disagree with this because of what the macro charts have to say…

If we look at the monthly Bitcoin chart, we can see a clear correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the RSI. Once the RSI retests its historical trend line, it tends to flatten out, showing neither an increase nor decrease in momentum. This is usually a sign of long term bearish momentum exhausting, and slowly shifting to bullish.

This flattening period an momentum shift on the RSI tends to cause price to flatten as well, finding a bottom within that period. All it takes is looking back at historical price action to see how this pattern plays out every single cycle.

I’d keep a very close eye on this chart as we can start to DCA back into the market once price momentum and price have both started to flatten out. 🤝

$BOOTSTRAP | Project Review
 
✅ Overview

$BOOTSTRAP is a new SOL project that recently launched on Pumpfun, with the goal of creating a new standard for how organic runners are launched. Over the past few months, the trenches have brought attention to the new creator fee structures and how they are extremely extractive in nature.

In reality, creator fees should be used to strengthen liquidity pools, allowing for the pool to compound while market cap continues to rise. With this model, 1% clips from snipers won’t completely obliterate the chart of an organic runner. This is exactly what $BOOTSTRAP has created.

Bootstrap's MVP allows users to connect a wallet, launch with immutable liquidity mechanics, and choose how fees are allocated. For example, directing most fees to LP injection instead of the team, which would significantly strengthen a tokens longevity.

📄 Tokenomics (Supply - 1B)
Tax - 0/0 | LP Burnt | Ca Renounced
 
🔒 Analysis
I truly believe this is a product that the trenches have been pushing for since creator fees were first introduced. It allows teams with good intentions to compound and thicken LPs which significantly increases the longevity of a project, while simultaneously pushing away all the creator fee extractors in the space.

Very strong team here that has a solid understanding of what the trenches are looking for, with all the tools to execute. The team has submitted to the PumpFun Hackathon, and in my opinion and has a very solid chance of winning. Chart is looking very strong, good time to start DCAing into a position. Currently at $560k. DYOR.

🦅Chart | 🌐Website | ✖️Twitter

🦞$MOLTID🦞 | Project Review
 
✅ Overview
$MOLTID is a new SOL project that allows you to get an AI agent without any servers, DevOps, or any monthly cost! Once a user mints their “.molt” domain, you get access to a personal AI Agent powered by Cloudflare Moltworker, accessible from any device. So there’s no $600 MacBook needed.

Along with your agent, you get an immutable domain wallet, persistent agent storage, an on-chain identity, Telegram channel integrations and much more. With all these features your agent can trade tokens, launch tokens, use x402 payments, host x402 servers, have agent to agent interactions, and more!

📄 Tokenomics (Supply - 1B)
Tax - 0/0 | LP Locked 3 years | Ca Renounced
 
🔒 Analysis
I really like the narrative and tech on this one. Very strong team launching this with lots of experience in the space and have built great tech in the past, so it's safe to say the team knows how to truly push a runner…

There was a presale on Solrocket last week so keep an eye out for a safe entry once some pre-salers have exited. LP is already locked on Meteora for 3 years. As always DYOR! Currently at 1m Mcap!

🦅Chart | 🌐Website | ✖️Twitter

The S&P 500 is still looking ready to collapse… 👀

After closing out another week, the stock market has yet again failed to break out to new ATHs, which is still leading me to believe that the base case is a larger stock market collapse over the next year or so.

The daily RSI is also STILL showing weakening momentum in the markets, with the RSI topping back in September when other major stocks like META saw their latest ATH.

This is a clear sign that it is only a matter of time before price action starts to show signs of the bears taking over long term strength and momentum, which will likely come when the 100 EMA on the daily finally breaks, as it has acted as strong support over the past year.

The other scenario I could see playing out is a quick manipulation move and wick to ATHs, stopping out lots of short positions, and trapping new longs, before finally starting the move lower EXACTLY as the cycles we keep talking about suggest.

Keep an eye out for any war news related to the US and Iran, as that could be the perfect catalyst/narrative for the markets grab onto as to why stocks make that next move lower.

Some nice price action here on $MOLTID 🔥

After our initial call here at a $1m market cap, $MOLTID just touched $2.3m for a clean 2x+ so far.

Recall that $MOLTID allows users to operate an AI agent without servers, monthly costs or DevOps. Once a .molt domain is created, users gain access to a personal AI Agent powered by Cloudflare Moltworker.

They've announced a MASSIVE update just today, which enables Solana development skill for all .molt agents. Simply ask your Openclaw to write programs and deploy Solana programs directly from chat.

Recent announcements on Twitter for CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap listings in the past couple of days have also helped build momentum. 🤝

Keep an eye on the chart for an entry point if you haven't already, expecting more to come here...👀

As I mentioned the other day, war news being in the headlines this weekend was very possible, and that is exactly what we have seen play out… 👀

Since early Saturday morning, the US and Israel have started a strong campaign against Iran, which has since taken out many high ranking Iranian officials, including the supreme leader.

It is clear the US and Israel are interested in regime change, which will likely result in a more drawn out war. Oil prices are already surging higher after the Strait of Hormuz has been almost entirely blocked off by Iran.

All of this happening is most likely going to cause stocks to sell off hard Monday morning and could be the narrative and uncertainty the markets needed for the weakening momentum in the stock market to finally collapse, as we have been talking about for weeks.

AND if the stock market starts selling off, showing weakness in the traditional markets, we will VERY likely see crypto follow suit.

Make sure to keep a close eye on the news to see if this war continues to escalate.

$BTC price action is playing out EXACTLY as we expected… 👀

The other day, I posted about Bitcoin’s price action following EXTREMELY closely to that of the 2022 bear market. In the post, I explained how there was strong manipulation to the upside before heading lower during this exact same phase of the last bear market, which led me to believe we were likely to see the same thing play out this time around.

And as we can see now, price has headed STRAIGHT into resistance at 72–74k after a non news related short squeeze (aka market manipulation) just like I expected. Now it’s a matter of watching to see if price BREAKS THROUGH that extremely strong resistance or rejects. If we reject, we will likely see price start heading toward new lows like we did in 2022, but if we break out, price could rally into the high 70s before finding more resistance.

This is an EXTREMELY important inflection point in the markets, which will decide the next big move in Bitcoin’s price action. Keep a very close eye on these charts… 🤝

Let’s take a quick look at $BTC short term price action… 👀

Just like I explained over the past few days, Bitcoin has deviated out of its local sideways trading range in a short squeeze to essentially liquidate everyone before the next macro move, which I believe is heading lower.

Right now, with price currently rejecting from the low 70s, I see two most likely scenarios playing out. The first is that we have seen the last of this rally, and will just continue heading lower from here to the bottom of our trading range. The second scenario is another quick short squeeze to retest the mid 70s, where a lot of liquidity has built up over the past 48 hours, before eventually rejecting and heading lower.

There are obviously other possibilities, like a breakout to the high 70s, but I don’t see that as very likely. We are still in a macro downtrend, and almost every momentum indicator shows this current rally over the past two days has become quite exhausted. Therefore the path of least resistance is lower.

I’d recommend keeping a CLOSE eye on this price action, because as I said yesterday, this is a KEY inflection point which will dictate the next macro moves in the market 🤝

Let’s take a look at the stock market’s weekly close… 👀

As I’ve mentioned MANY times over the past few weeks, the 100EMA on the daily chart has been a critical level of support holding the stock market back from falling into a deep bear market.

As we can see today, our first daily candle in MANY months has officially closed BELOW the 100EMA, marking what, in my opinion, is the beginning of a move much lower.

Of course, this close came on a Friday, meaning we have the entire weekend for more news and headlines about all the conflict in the Middle East to keep brewing, which could cause an even bigger dump come market open next Monday.

With all this being said, we were predicting a stock market decline way before all the war in the Middle East even started. Stocks follow a very similar cycle to crypto, which would mean 2026 SHOULD be a bearish year for stocks, regardless of geopolitical conditions. Keep a close eye on this chart.