Situational update on the Dobropillya direction:

As the frontline continues to be pushed away from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, Russia is now increasingly able to exploit the full potential of both cities as logistical hubs. As a result of this, they have begun advancing at a faster rate towards Dobropillya from the south, operating in tandem with renewed large-scale assault operations towards the city from the east.

East of Dobropillya, the situation for Ukraine has deteriorated as Russian forces sharply increased the intensity of their assault operations. As a result, they were able to capture the rest of Nove Shakhove and begin advancing further west towards Novyi Donbas. For now, they appear to be focusing on capturing the flanks of Novyi Donbas, advancing west along the railway line south of the village, northwest through the gullies north of the village, and west along the treelines north of the village. Some of these positions have been captured, allowing for DRGs to penetrate all the way to the eastern edge of Dobropillya and the neighbouring village of Hannivka, engaging in clashes with Ukrainian forces near the two terykons (industrial waste dumps).

Additionally, Russian forces have intensified their assault operations towards Kucheriv Yar, Vilne, and in the fortifications on the tactical heights north of Toretske, infiltrating through the fields and clay quarries. Some isolated DRGs are managing to penetrate as far as the outskirts of Zolotyi Kolodyaz.

Southeast of Dobropillya, the Russians intensified their assault operations near Bilytske, despite Ukrainian forces managing to clear the southern part of the city from earlier infiltrations. Russian forces were able to penetrate Ukrainian lines into the treelines west of Bilytske, where they are attempting to storm Ukrainian positions on the eastern approaches of Svitle. This undermines the very strong Ukrainian defence in and around Bilytske, and in coordination with advances near Novyi Donbas, threatens the city with encirclement. Additionally, the Russians continued assault operations west of Dorozhnje, continued infiltrations into the eastern private sector of Bilytske, and recaptured previously lost positions in the railway windbreaks northwest of Rodynske. Fighting also continues for the western blocks of Rodynske.

Northwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces cleared a series of Ukrainian treeline positions east of Hryshyne, further expanding their buffer zone around Pokrovsk, and allowing for infiltrations to begin into the eastern and northern parts of Shevchenko, as well as through the fields west of the village. Other assault groups established full control over the village of Vasylivka, which they are using to launch assault on neighbouring Myrne and the treelines to the north in the direction of Novohryshyne and Matyasheve.

West of Pokrovsk, Russian forces began an advance west along the railway line, advancing by around 4.4 km and infiltrating the eastern streets of Serhiivka. They also improved their positions in the treelines between the railway line and Kotlyne.

A lack of Ukrainian units concentrated in this sector, as well as the Russian logistical advantage with their control over Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, is allowing them to make these new advances. Once Russia is able to establish a stable foothold in the dense cluster of village south of Dobropillya, it will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to turn the situation back in their favour.

+ ~18.88 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~0.41 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

The civilian death toll from Russia's combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv on July 2 has risen to 31, with another 102 others injured.

Most of the casualties were from a Kh-101 cruise missile directly impacting a high-rise residential building, causing it to partially collapse.

A cargo ship has been attacked by unknown armed assailants in the Red Sea, 30 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, Houthi-controlled Yemen.

Amidst an air raid alert, the TCC (territorial recruitment), equipped with pistols and pepper spray, abduct and mobilise a Ukrainian man in Dnipro.

Civilians fight back using pepper spray, while attempting to rip off the doors of their vehicles and hurl heavy objects at the vehicle's windows. One of the TCC members fired his gun at the civilians.

The preparations for the upcoming large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine that began 3 days ago are now complete.

During the day, 5 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase to Olenya Airbase, while 1 redeployed to Engels-2 Airbase. At least 3 other Tu-95MS stationed at Engels-2 and Olenya Airbases that didn't launch missiles during the most recent attack may also take part in the attack. 2-3 Tu-160M strategic bombers may also take part from Ukrainka Airbase.

Additionally, up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles could be used, along with up to 6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, possibly Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, as well as 400-800 Geran-2 and Gerbera drones which have been accumulated over the last couple of weeks.

The highest threat is in place for tonight and tomorrow night. The highest threat is to the western regions of Ukraine. The central regions may also be attacked.

A Russian operator-controlled Geran-2 drone struck the "Dyakivka" 110 kV electrical substation in the village of Dyakivka, Sumy Oblast.

Coordinates: 51.17380, 34.03917

Two Russian fibre-optic FPV drone struck the "Frunzenska" 110 kV electrical substation in Sumy City, resulting in a fire breaking out.

Coordinates: 50.93067, 34.79371

2 Russian S-400 air defence missiles just tried to shoot down Ukrainian tactical aircraft flying near Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast.

Vehicle losses have been released for the month of June. Credit to HeyHeyHayden and LostArmour.

Russia lost 42 vehicles visually confirmed and geolocated, whilst Ukraine lost 232.

A ratio of 1:5.5 in Russia’s favour.

Excluding armoured cards and MRAPs,

Russia lost 39 vehicles while Ukraine lost 100.

A ratio of 1:2.5 in Russia’s favour.

Vehicle attrition continues to tell the real story of this war.

The trend of vehicle attrition continues to greatly favour Russia.

In May, the ratio for all vehicles was 1:5.6 in favour of Russia, this month it is 1:5.5.

The ratio for all vehicles excluding armoured cars and MRAPs was 1:2.8 in favour of Russia in May, this month it is 1:2.5.

The ratio for self-propelled guns was 1:4.5 in favour of Russia in May, this month it is 1:5.1.

The 6th Tu-95MS that flew to Engels-2 Airbase is now in the air, flying back to Olenya Airbase.

If the other 5 Tu-95MS already at Olenya are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, we will likely see the next large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine happen tonight.

I will update in the morning (NZ time) when it becomes clearer.

Goodnight!

As of now, there’s no signs of a threat of a large-scale attack taking place tonight.