8 Tu-95s are airborne.

They took off from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast. This is the usual place where they take off from for combat flights, but it is also often used for training.

~21 Geran drones are still in the airspace of Ukraine, ~11 of which are new ones. Kyiv appears to be the primary target for these drones.

Ukrainian monitor channels report that it is likely a combat flight.

I will continue to monitor the situation, and will report on the events in real time. I’m not at home right now, but I will try to be back by the time the missiles enter Ukrainian airspace (if they even do) so I can make live map updates tracking them.

The 8 Tu-95s are all heading in the direction of the launch lines in Saratov Oblast and the Caspian Sea.

Additional Tu-95s have taken off.

This is going to be a big one

New launches of Geran drones from Khalino airbase, Kursk Oblast were reported.

7 US-British airstrikes were reported in the Amran governorate of Yemen.

5 Geran drones are bypassing Kyiv from the south. It is possible that they return to the city from the west to hit just before the missiles, overloading Ukrainian air defence, therefore maximizing the damage.

The Tu-95s are now halfway to the potential launch lines in Saratov.

Most of the Geran drones have either been shot down or hit their targets. There are only two left in Ukrainian airspace.

I forgot to mention that there is one missile carrier in the waters Black Sea, with a total salvo of up to 4 Kalibr missiles.

There are no Gerans left.

Approximate situation with the Tu-95s. They are flying over southern Saratov Oblast on a southeastern course. They passed over the launch lines in the Engels area without making any launch maneuvers, but are continuing in the direction of the potential launch lines in the Caspian Sea.

It also appears that the other Tu-95s taking off was a false alarm.

They changed course to the south. Definitely heading to the waters of the Caspian Sea. They will probably turn the southeast in the next 10 minutes.

A short while ago, sirens sounded in central Israel and the Israeli settlements in the west bank due to a missile launched from the east (presumably from Yemen).

Launch manuevers were conducted over Saratov and Volgograd Oblasts.

Keep in mind, these could just been imitations. I'll continue to monitor the situation and inform you of them entering Ukrainian airspace and future movements of the aircraft.