This morning, at least two Ukrainian UAVs struck the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia. A fire is now seen burning at the plant's water treatment workshop, one of which has partially collapsed.
Coordinates: 53.63798, 55.95034
Coordinates: 53.63798, 55.95034
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Last night, Ukrainian UAVs attacked the Ktsovo Oil Refinery in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. A large fire is now burning there, which also threatens the neighbouring SIBUR-Kstovo petrochemical plant.
Coordinates: 56.10583, 44.14388
Coordinates: 56.10583, 44.14388
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The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces published footage of last night's FP-2 drone strikes on targets in Luhansk Oblast.
1 drone struck a fuel and lubricants unloading site near the city of Dovzhansk (48.11294, 39.60513). Secondary detonations of ammunition was also seen afterwards [Media 2].
1 drone struck a reported supply warehouse in the village of Rozkishne, just south of Luhansk City (48.49514, 39.26693).
1 drone struck a fuel and lubricants unloading site near the city of Dovzhansk (48.11294, 39.60513). Secondary detonations of ammunition was also seen afterwards [Media 2].
1 drone struck a reported supply warehouse in the village of Rozkishne, just south of Luhansk City (48.49514, 39.26693).
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Overnight, Ukrainian UAVs attacked the 550 kV Frolovskaya electrical substation near the city of Frolovo, Volgograd Oblast.
Coordinates: 49.78431, 43.71596
Coordinates: 49.78431, 43.71596
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Yesterday evening, Ukraine carried out a combined strike on the 110 kV electrical substation in the city of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.
Both UAVs and HIMARS GMLRS were used in the attack, resulting in a fire breaking out. As a result, city-wide power outages were reported in Rylsk, with additional outages in the surrounding settlements.
Coordinates: 51.56506, 34.66293
Both UAVs and HIMARS GMLRS were used in the attack, resulting in a fire breaking out. As a result, city-wide power outages were reported in Rylsk, with additional outages in the surrounding settlements.
Coordinates: 51.56506, 34.66293
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Overnight, a large-scale Russian Geran-2 drone attack was carried out on southern Odesa Oblast, involving at least 24 drones.
At least 12 drones attacked two targets in the city of Izmail. One target was the city's 110 kV electrical substation, and the other was the port on the Danube River. Large fires are burning at both impact sites, as evidenced by NASA FIRMS data.
NASA FIRMS also shows a fire burning in the forests opposite the Izmail port on the Romanian side of the border. This is likely from downed debris of a drone targeted the port.
Additionally, around 12 Geran-2 drones struck an unknown target in/near the village of Dunaiske, just southeast of Izmail.
At least 12 drones attacked two targets in the city of Izmail. One target was the city's 110 kV electrical substation, and the other was the port on the Danube River. Large fires are burning at both impact sites, as evidenced by NASA FIRMS data.
NASA FIRMS also shows a fire burning in the forests opposite the Izmail port on the Romanian side of the border. This is likely from downed debris of a drone targeted the port.
Additionally, around 12 Geran-2 drones struck an unknown target in/near the village of Dunaiske, just southeast of Izmail.
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The Ukrainian GUR published footage of new FPV drone strikes on valuable Russian targets in Crimea.
The drones targeted:
A command post of a Russian S-400 air defence system in a combat position.
A 92N6E multifunctional radar + the autonomous power supply for the S-400 command post.
An AORL-1AS airfield surveillance radar.
P-18 “Terek” general-purpose early warning radar.
The drones targeted:
A command post of a Russian S-400 air defence system in a combat position.
A 92N6E multifunctional radar + the autonomous power supply for the S-400 command post.
An AORL-1AS airfield surveillance radar.
P-18 “Terek” general-purpose early warning radar.
Last night, Russia attacked the town of Rohan, Kharkiv Oblast. At least five explosions were recorded, with the explosions being heard from neighbouring Kharkiv City (as seen in media 1).
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There is an increased threat of a large-scale, combined Russian missile attack on Ukraine in the next 5 days, not including Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic aviation.
The attack would involve Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and hundreds of Geran-2 drones. The highest threat is to Kyiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, especially for gas and energy infrastructure.
As of now, nothing is certain, but there have been actions noted that suggest preparations for a large attack.
The attack would involve Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and hundreds of Geran-2 drones. The highest threat is to Kyiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, especially for gas and energy infrastructure.
As of now, nothing is certain, but there have been actions noted that suggest preparations for a large attack.
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Once this war is over, I think a lot of people are going to consider the fall of Pokrovsk as the "turning point" for why Russia won.
This is not the case. The fall of Pokrovsk will be just one thing in a chain of events that trend towards collapse for Ukraine, and there is still much more to come. Attritional warfare prioritises degrading your enemy's ability to fight, and the territory you gain in the meantime is - for the most part - a biproduct of successful attrition.
There wasn't really a turning point for this war, as Russia is the larger country, with superior capabilities, and the ability to keep up the fight far longer than Ukraine, meaning they are destined to win unless something drastic and revolutionary happens. There are many reasons for this, of which I have outlined in the past.
Pokrovsk is just the "new Bakhmut" - the city that the media focuses on. You could even consider it Zelensky's PR city. I don't think Pokrovsk will be forgotten like the 2023 Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive, or the 2024-2025 Kursk offensive, however, as it will probably be labelled as the turning point further down the line.
This is not the case. The fall of Pokrovsk will be just one thing in a chain of events that trend towards collapse for Ukraine, and there is still much more to come. Attritional warfare prioritises degrading your enemy's ability to fight, and the territory you gain in the meantime is - for the most part - a biproduct of successful attrition.
There wasn't really a turning point for this war, as Russia is the larger country, with superior capabilities, and the ability to keep up the fight far longer than Ukraine, meaning they are destined to win unless something drastic and revolutionary happens. There are many reasons for this, of which I have outlined in the past.
Pokrovsk is just the "new Bakhmut" - the city that the media focuses on. You could even consider it Zelensky's PR city. I don't think Pokrovsk will be forgotten like the 2023 Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive, or the 2024-2025 Kursk offensive, however, as it will probably be labelled as the turning point further down the line.
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Currently, there are 40 Tu-95MS strategic bombers stationed at Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.
30 Tu-95MS are not used and have remained stationary for a long time.
1 Tu-95MS is there purely for training purposes.
7 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, to Ukrainka Airbase, and will be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to Ukrainka Airbase, and will also be equipped with missiles.
The most interesting news is that 4 Tu-160s were previously stationed there, 1 of which was used for training purposes. On October 1, maintenance of 3 Tu-160s used for combat missions was carried out.
Since then, 1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed there, carrying Kh-101 missiles, which were equipped to the 3 Tu-160s. The 3 Tu-160s equipped with missiles redeployed back to Engels-2 overnight and have since landed there.
30 Tu-95MS are not used and have remained stationary for a long time.
1 Tu-95MS is there purely for training purposes.
7 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, to Ukrainka Airbase, and will be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to Ukrainka Airbase, and will also be equipped with missiles.
The most interesting news is that 4 Tu-160s were previously stationed there, 1 of which was used for training purposes. On October 1, maintenance of 3 Tu-160s used for combat missions was carried out.
Since then, 1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed there, carrying Kh-101 missiles, which were equipped to the 3 Tu-160s. The 3 Tu-160s equipped with missiles redeployed back to Engels-2 overnight and have since landed there.
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High-resolution satellite imagery of Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, reveals that 9 new parking areas have been completed.
These will house Russian Su-34 and Su-35 tactical aircraft, which take part in launches of KAB glide-bombs at frontline areas. These new parking areas are being constructed due to increased production of Su-34 and Su-35s.
Image credit
These will house Russian Su-34 and Su-35 tactical aircraft, which take part in launches of KAB glide-bombs at frontline areas. These new parking areas are being constructed due to increased production of Su-34 and Su-35s.
Image credit
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