There is activity on combat-related frequencies for Russian strategic aviation, suggesting that there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine tonight.

More info to come.

There are very few Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace right now. Due to the change in daylight hours, attacks are taking place later and later, meaning that drone launches will also take place later. Departures of Tu-95s are expected within the next three hours, however.

Additional activity linked to Engels-2 Airbase has been detected. Departures of 1 Tu-160 and additional Tu-95MS from there are expected later on in the night.

Launches of Geran-2 drones from Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast, and Kacha Airbase, Crimea, have been recorded.

The ones from Tsumbulova are already approaching Ukrainian airspace.

Additional launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded from:

Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Cape Chauda, Crimea
Hvardiivske Airbase, Crimea
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast

(not all of these are confirmed)

There is a high risk of launches of Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Voronezh and Rostov Oblasts in the coming hours.

Launches of Geran-2 drones have now been reported from 10 directions, each with one launch.

The airspace in the area of the Tu-95MS launch lines in Saratov Oblast has been closed for civilian aircraft.

There are currently at least 60 Geran-2/Gebera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Launches of Geran-2/Gerbera drones have now taken place from all launch locations.

Repeated launches have been reported from four of these locations.

~64 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace.

5 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 carried out launch maneuvers. We will find out if these are real in the next 90 minutes.

Additionally, Kalibrs missile launches were recorded from the Black Sea.

I won't be able to cover these missile strikes live, sorry. I will post about the consequences of the strikes afterwards, though. It looks like most/all missiles will fly to western Ukraine.

2 Kinzhal missiles to Kyiv

Past Kyiv to Zhytomyr Oblast

Flying further to Rivne Oblast

Over Rivne Oblast, flying towards Lviv City

1 minute from Lviv

30 seconds

Explosions were heard in Lviv around 1 minute ago

The two explosions heard in Lviv

Kh-101 cruise missiles are now impacting Lviv. 5 more are flying in from the south.