There is a very small Geran-2 drone attack on Ukraine tonight. This, plus other developments indicates that the large-scale missile attack will be tomorrow night.

Possible combat-related activity has been recorded on two frequencies related to Russian strategic aviation. Possible missile attack tonight.

More to come.

Reminder: 6 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

The Tu-95MS are at Olenya Airbase, while the Tu-160 is at Engels-2.

Activity is confirmed to be combat-related. There will likely be a missile attack tonight.

1 Tu-160 has entered Saratov Oblast after taking off from Ukrainka Airbase earlier. It is redeploying to Engels-2 Airbase, possibly after being equipped with missiles.

The first large groups of Geran-2 drones are entering Chernihiv Oblast via Novhorod-Siverskyi. These were launched from the Tsumbulova Test Site in Oryol Oblast earlier.

Iskander threat from Kursk

Iskander launch

No missiles were detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Probably mixed up with Russian S-300/400 activity against Ukrainian UAVs.

At least two Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and are flying south towards the launch lines.

Activity on strategic aviation frequencies related to Engels-2 Airbase has been recorded. There will probably be Tu-160 departures in the near future.

Correction: 1 Tu-160 and 1 Tu-95MS are confirmed to be airborne from Olenya Airbase, rather than 2 Tu-95MS.

They are expected to reach the launch lines in the following amount of time:

Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast: 2 hrs 15 mins.
Engels District, Saratov Oblast: 2 hrs 40 mins.
Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast: 3 hrs 10 mins.
Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast (Caspian Sea area): 3 hrs 40 mins.

Remember, launch maneuvers can be simulated with electronic warfare or dummy missiles. Once a launch maneuver is carried out, any missiles will enter Ukrainian airspace 60-120 minutes later, depending on the launch lines.

1 Tu-160 strategic bomber has departed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

Currently, 5 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are confirmed to be airborne. The information about the Tu-160s from Olenya and Engels-2 seems to be false.

The number of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace is rapidly increasing, and is already over 100.

General flight vectors of the Gerans.

The airspace has been closed in the area of the launch lines for MiG-31Ks. There is a possibility of Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missile launches tonight.

The 5 Tu-95MS from Olenya Aibrase are flying over Vologda. They are expected to reach the launch lines in Engels District, Saratov Oblast, in around 1 hr 30 mins.

I will be offline for around an hour, but will be back afterwards with more coverage.

Nevermind, I will not be leaving. A MiG-31K is airborne from Savasleika Airbase.