Likely no missile attack tonight, but I will update if anything changes.

The chaotic situation in the Dobropilla direction continues, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces continuing their attempts at encircling each other.

Interestingly, despite being nearly cut off, Russian forces are continuing their assault operations in the salient and have been advancing. Russian forces have been slowly pushing towards the northern edge of Doroznje, and were geolocated at the clay mine. Unconfirmed (but plausible) reports state that Doroznje has come back under Russian control, and that Russian forces have re-secured the northern part of Nykanorivka. If true, Ukrainian forces are at great risk of being encircled here.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued to attack. They have entered the centre of Boikivka, and carried out unsuccessful attacks on northern Zatyshok after advancing down a treeline in the grey zone. Russian forces are slowly pushing the Ukrainians back out of northern Novotoretske, and continue their attacks on western Nove Shakhove.

In the Prosyana direction, Russian forces continue to advance in the village of Ivanivka, further expanding their bridgehead on the northern bank of the Vovcha River.

After establishing a foothold in the easternmost houses of Ivanivka, Russian reinforcements were able to be brought in over the river, allowing for the exploitation of the initial bridgehead to take place. Russian forces pushed northwest to the main section of the eastern part of Ivanivka, capturing additional positions in the houses there and along the northern bank of the Vovcha River.

+ ~2.76 km² in favour of Russia.

On the northeastern flank of Pokrovsk, at some point over the pastfew weeks, Ukrainian forces were able to completely push the Russians out of the city of Rodynske.

Earlier, Russian forces attempted a series of assault operations in various parts of the city, attempting to break into the city centre. Ukrainian reinforcements were brought in and kill-zones with FPV drones were formed in the low-rise residential areas. As a result, despite incredibly intense FAB glide-bomb and artillery bombardment of Rodynske and the surrounding areas, Russia failed to breach Ukrainian lines here.

Ukrainian forces in turn began their own series of counterattacks. Utilising their superior forward deployment points in stronger and larger high-rise buildings, the Ukrainians cleared Russian soldiers from the eastern and northern parts of the city, as well as the area of the train station.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continued their attacks in the area of the highway, near the pig farms south of Rodynske.

+ ~1.64 km² in favour of Ukraine.

YouTuber logic.
Let's not apply equal standards....

There is a very small Geran-2 drone attack on Ukraine tonight. This, plus other developments indicates that the large-scale missile attack will be tomorrow night.

Possible combat-related activity has been recorded on two frequencies related to Russian strategic aviation. Possible missile attack tonight.

More to come.

Reminder: 6 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

The Tu-95MS are at Olenya Airbase, while the Tu-160 is at Engels-2.

Activity is confirmed to be combat-related. There will likely be a missile attack tonight.

1 Tu-160 has entered Saratov Oblast after taking off from Ukrainka Airbase earlier. It is redeploying to Engels-2 Airbase, possibly after being equipped with missiles.

The first large groups of Geran-2 drones are entering Chernihiv Oblast via Novhorod-Siverskyi. These were launched from the Tsumbulova Test Site in Oryol Oblast earlier.

Iskander threat from Kursk

Iskander launch

No missiles were detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Probably mixed up with Russian S-300/400 activity against Ukrainian UAVs.

At least two Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and are flying south towards the launch lines.

Activity on strategic aviation frequencies related to Engels-2 Airbase has been recorded. There will probably be Tu-160 departures in the near future.