Watch out guys, Astraia Intel knows more about how the war is going than the literal president of Ukraine. I think if Zelensky (someone who has constantly lied about this war) is sounding the alarm bells, it's a solid sign that things haven't been going in Ukraine's favour.

"They will accept military rule because I say so"

Yesterday, the battle for the Serebryanskyi Forest in Luhansk Oblast finally ended after the remaining Ukrainian forces were pushed out of its southwestern-most part.

This battle began in late 2022 during the Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive and lasted for nearly three years. Ukrainian forces, including Azov, held their positions in a massive complex of trenches and bunkers within the now largely destroyed forest.

However, the vast majority of Russian advances during this nearly 3-year-long battle occurred in the final month. I have overlayed what the frontline roughly looked like on August 6, around the beginning of the Russian offensive here.

As a result, Ukrainian control in Luhansk Oblast has now shrunk to roughly 47 km².

Russian Su-34s carried out launch maneuvers of KAB glide-bombs towards Tokarivka, Kherson Oblast.

~90 seconds until impacts

Approaching

Explosions in Tokarivka

The KABs impacted the village of Inhulets. The same area that was hit yesterday. The Su-34s are now returning back to Crimea.

Russian forces have captured the village of Olhivske, Hulyaipole Direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~55.
Total land area: ~0.34 km².

Update from the Gaza Strip - Gaza Governorate:

With the IDF officially announcing the beginning of its offensive to capture Gaza City, intensified operations have been recorded in two main parts of the city over the past 48 hours.

In the southwest, Israeli forces resumed clearing operations in the already flattened parts of southern Gaza City. They quickly reached Dahdouh Road from the southeast and are now within 1.15 km of the coast. Israeli forces have now taken up positions in a residential quarter (31.50155, 34.42969) in the first part of the partially destroyed coastal Sheikh Ijlin Neighbourhood.

To the northeast, the IDF continued pushing from Jabalia at their usual pace and entered into the Gaza Governorate in the area of the Al Sheik Radwan Pool. They began clearing operations towards Gaza City centre from this area, capturing several dense residential blocks (31.52189, 34.4701 & 31.5241, 34.47019), before armoured units began their main vector of attack northwest down Kamal Naser Street. Here they advanced for close to 500 metres, reaching Al-Jala Street, where they expanded for about 240 metres through the dense residential blocks to the southwest (31.52593, 34.46655).

+ ~1.80 km² in favour of the IDF.

Update from the Gaza Strip - Northern Governorate:

Following the announcement by the IDF that they would be beginning their offensive on Gaza City, a series of supporting attacks were launched on the Northern Governorate to support formations advancing in Gaza Governorate.

Israeli armoured units began advancing along the coastal Al-Rashid Road, as well as along roads previously created by the IDF during their previous operations here, reaching the first districts of Jabalia City. They were able to quickly clear and capture the outlying streets (31.5529, 34.4642), reaching the edge of the Madinat Al 'Awada Neighbourhood from the north (31.54792, 34.46454). At the same time, other forces captured other key points along the way, including the destroyed Gaza Oil Company complex (31.55287, 34.46791), and the former IDF base at the Gaza Desalination Plant (31.56156, 34.46763).

To the southeast, Israeli forces massively intensified their operations in the Nazla Neighbourhood of Jabalia City and cleared a large section of the dense residential zones north of Al-Quds Street, reaching the edge of the Sheik Radwan Neighbourhood of Gaza City (31.53159, 34.47553).

The goal here appears to be to isolate remaining Palestinian militant cells in Jabalia Refugee Camp, Jabalia City, Beit Lahiya, and Atatra, so the IDF can focus on establishing a stronger presence in the northern suburbs of Gaza City.

+ ~2.28 km² in favour of the IDF.

Meanwhile, after what seems like forever...

There haven't been any charges yet, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Sentinel satellite imagery reveals that groups of Ukrainian soldiers were encircled in the western part of Sichneve around four days ago, after Russian forces bypassed the village and continued advancing further west.

Russian forces are now striking them with FPV drones, while ground forces are attempting to clear the pocket by attacking from the east of the village. A large grey zone has formed in the treelines west of the settlement, so it's possible that Ukraine will make attempts at rescuing these soldiers through this.

However, as a result of the local collapse of Ukrainian lines in this area and the subsequent encirclement of Ukrainian troops, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi dismissed Maksym Kituhin, the commander of the 20th Army Corps, from his current position. He will still serve in the AFU, but in another unspecified role.

Ballistic missile launch from Yemen to Israel

The missile launch failed, and it fell along the way.

Footage showing a Russian Mi-28 helicopter flying over Bakhmut. The city is beginning to become overgrown now that fighting is moving away.

An explosion was heard from Zaporizhzhia City as a result of an Iskander strike outside the city limits.

Another explosion was heard

These apparently hit west of the city

Kupyansk. Ukraine is transferring the 3rd Assault Brigade into the city.

The transfer has been already ongoing at least since September 13th according to my information, and as a minimum some elements of the Brigade already arrived in the Kupyansk direction.

The Russians are in central Kupyansk as of 2 days ago (confirmed by Deepstate). It's unclear if Azov will try to clear DRGs from Sobolivka, or assault groups inside the city limits. Both options would make sense.