This was a Russian air defence missile (not S-300/400) targeting Ukrainian UAVs in Bryansk Oblast.

A large-scale Geran-2 drone attack is being carried out today. Currently there are over 80 Gerans in Ukrainian airspace, with repeated launches already recorded. The total number of Geran/Gerbera drones is expected to exceed 200, with the main target likely being Kyiv.

This also means that there is an increased threat of launches of missiles such as Iskander-M ballistics or Iskander-K cruise missiles.

There are unconfirmed reports of Tu-95MS departures from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. I am clarifying the information, but no activity on strategic combat frequencies was recorded earlier.

2 Tu-95s are confirmed to be airborne. Remember, all Tu-95s stationed at Olenya are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. The departure time is indicative of missile launches, but it could be unrelated.

The approximate situation with Geran-2 drones right now.

The numbers remain largely unchanged, as impacts have only been recorded in Dobropillya, Donetsk Oblast, while only a few new drones have flown in via Novhorod-Siverskyi, Chernihiv Oblast.

There are currently no Gerans attacking, or flying over major cities.

Activity on Russian strategic combat frequencies is now being recorded.

Activity on Russian strategic combat frequencies related to Engels-2 Airbase has also be recorded. Currently, at least 2 Tu-95s and 1 Tu-160 are known to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Also, airspace closures for the surroundings of Savasleika Airbase and the usual launch zones for MiG-31K aircraft were imposed two days ago, to last until Friday. This is indicative of future launches of Kinzhal missiles later.

Russia is using a new combat frequency for their strategic aviation, instead of their usual 4389㎑. This is why there was a much longer lag to confirm departures.

1 Tu-160 strategic bomber departed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast

Rivne city in western Ukraine is currently under attack by Geran-2 drones. Most Gerans are flying to the far-western regions of Ukraine, meaning that the missiles will likely follow.

1 Tu-95MS departed from Engels-2 Airbase

The 1 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 from Engels-2 Airbase are currently circling in the area of the launch lines in Engels District, Saratov Oblast, waiting for the Tu-95s from Olenya to arrive.

Another Tu-95MS departed from Engels-2 Airbase around 10 minutes ago.

1 Tu-160 and 1 Tu-95 from Engels-2 Airbase carried out launch maneuvers from Engels District, Saratov Oblast.

An additional 3 Tu-95s from Olenya are airborne.

9 bombers total:
5 Tu-95s from Olenya
2 Tu-95s from Engels-2
2 Tu-160s from Engels-2 (1 is conducting training).

Legendary Kreminna forest and the 16,500 trenches inside: the most precise public mapping ever made of this battlefield.

Interactive map: https://google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=17R-t8S0qF80nenpXYs9ID2x41ZRvYwo&ll=48.990962553402774%2C38.11020900000001&z=12

🧵Gallery thread🧵1/⬇️

Absolutely insane work by @Playfra. Russia collapsed this area in a few days, by the way. The battles for this forest have been fought for nearly three years, since the Ukrainian 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Ukrainian air defence is very active in Lviv right now. The Gerans in Lutsk are mostly striking one target

If the launch maneuvers from earlier were real, then we can expect cruise missiles in Ukrainian airspace in about 30-45 minutes.

However, the chances are that the 5 Tu-95s from Olenya are going to carry out real launches in around 2 hours.