Report on Russian air activity from 9am 3/8/25 - 9am 4/8/25 (Kyiv Time):

Overview:
The following was used by Russia:
2 Kinzhal Hypersonic Aeroballistic missiles.
1 Iskander-K cruise missile.
6+ Long-range reconnaissance UAVs.
150+ Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones (mostly Gerbera).

Targeted settlements:
Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast (2 Kinzhals).
Odesa City, Odesa Oblast (1 wave of Geran-2/Gerbera drones).
Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast (1 wave of Geran-2/Gerbera drones).
Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast (1 Iskander-K).

Other targeted areas:
Western Cherkasy Oblast (2 waves of Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones).

Strategic Aviation Activity:
1 Tu-160 redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast to Borisoglebskoye Airbase, Republic of Tatarstan.

MiG-31K activity:
Combat flights of two MiG-31Ks.

Military Transport and Tanker aircraft activity:
4x IL-76MD flights to Rostov-on-Don Airbase, Rostov Oblast.
1x IL-76MD flight to Krymsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.

The cargo likely consists of Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

Long-range reconnaissance drone activity:

Long-range recon drones were recorded in the following regions:

Sumy Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast.

KAB/FAB Glide-bomb targets (cities only):
Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.
Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.
Siversk, Donetsk Oblast.
Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Bilopillya, Sumy Oblast.
Kherson City, Kherson Oblast.

Iskander-M activity:
N/A

Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drone launch locations:
3x from Tsumbolova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
3x Navlya Testing Ground, Bryansk Oblast.
3x from Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast.
2x from Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
2x from Hvardiivske Training Ground, Crimea

Black Sea Fleet Activity:
N/A

Note: The map and information provided is not 100% accurate and is based mostly on OSINT reports and analyses. There is a margin of error, so it should not be viewed as perfect. Additionally, some data on the map is generalised, as stated in the legend. It also does not include less significant weapons such as MLRS, short-range UAVs, and KAB glide-bombs (unless they hit major population centres).

You can find the full resolution map here: https://ibb.co/KjPtTr1x

Some of the scenes from the fire at the ELENG LLC warehouse complex. The damage is extensive.

Last night, ~4 Russian Geran-2 drones attacked a target in the area of Pohrebyshche, Vinnytsia Oblast. No official comment was given from regional authorities, and NASA FIRMS doesn't show any heat signatures in the area.

In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive on Kupyansk and have reached the city centre.

Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the east, they pushed south down the highway, clearing houses on Lenina Street, while significantly advancing in the area of Michurina Street.

In the west, Russian forces cleared the rest of the western industrial zone, and crossed the Kupyanka River into central Moskovka, establishing a bridgehead on its western bank in two different residential streets.

+ ~1.53km² in favour of Russia.

High threat of Iskander launches from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

Iskander on Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Over Donetsk Oblast.

Flying to Berestyn, Kharkiv Oblast.

Disappeared, likely impacting the area of Sakhnovshchyna, Kharkiv Oblast.

A 2nd launch may have been carried out.

No launch.

I'm honestly surprised at how little people are talking about Kupyansk. This city has been on the frontlines for nearly three years, and Russia is on the brink of capturing it.

Russian forces have rapidly reached the city centre from the north, and are now just 1.5km from the main bridge over the Oskil River connecting the Ukrainian bridgehead on its eastern bank - including in eastern Kupyansk - to the rest of Kharkiv Oblast.

Once this highway is cut, all supplies into the pocket will have to go via a bridge to the south in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, or over pontoon bridges (although this brings its own separate issues). This creates a bottle neck that can easily be targeted, which will naturally result in the collapse of the bridgehead, the alignment of the front along the river, and a refocusing of efforts to complete the capture of the city and the surrounding areas.

Supply is already difficult for the AFU in the bridgehead, and the only thing preventing the current Russian assault operations there from achieving breakthroughs is the natural obstacles and significant fortification that lie in Russia's way.

While the fall of Kupyansk may not be imminent, there is a real threat of this northern bridge being cut, which will undoubtably create massive problems for Ukrainian forces in the area.

While Pokrovsk isn’t used as a major logistical hub for Ukraine right now, it doesn’t mean the city isn’t important. People seem to forget that once Russia takes the city, it becomes their logistical hub.

I can’t believe I even have to outline this.

Good night everyone.

For the next few days, there is an increased risk of a large-scale combined missile attack on Ukraine.