Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured the Vyimka railway station in the Siversk direction. If true, this would put them just 1.7km from the settlement of Vyimka.

However, this area is in the low-lying ground, meaning that Russian forces will need to capture the heights to the west to consolidate control over these positions and use them as a staging ground for future attacks up the railway line. This might be why they appear to have been struggling with their assaults here - they are advancing in a gulley.

Russian forces have reportedly advanced in the Pokrovsk direction and entered the village of Komyshivka. Unless Ukraine withdraws from the fortifications in the blue circles soon, they will be encircled.

I also expect assault operations will be underway for Ptyche in the next few days, unless of course the Russians choose to consolidate control over Novozhelanne and Zavitne.

Two of my three most reliable sources reported that Niu-york has fallen. The Phenol plant was reportedly the last location of resistance in the town. Ukrainian forces were likely encircled there. This opens up the way for assault operations on Toretsk from the south, once Nelipivka falls. It also risks the creation of a pocket of Ukrainian groupings west of Nelipivka.

Update from Chasiv Yar:

While there have been no confirmed Russian advances here for a while, reliable reports suggest that Russian marines from the 98th air assault brigade advanced and captured Ukrainian trench fortifications on the western bank of the Siversky Donets Canal.

There are also claims by Russian sources that Russian forces advanced from their foothold on Mariupolska street to the residential blocks between Syerova and Chkalova streets (in the yellow), although this remains unconfirmed. If true, it could also indicate a Russian advance along the railway line. The Russians have had a habit of using the railway lines for advances, before branching off into nearby settlements.

This tactic was primarily employed in the Pokrovsk direction, but it is possible that it has been repeated here and instead of advancing from Mariupolska street, they advanced from the windbreaks on either side of the railway line.

Overall, it appears that Ukraine is putting up stiff resistance in Chasiv Yar, and is prioritising this front over the Pokrovsk direction due to the fact that Chasiv Yar is situation on the tactical heights and is the key to the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk-Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka agglomeration.

There are reports that the 47th mechanised brigade has finally been withdrawn from the Pokrovsk direction after heavy losses. It is unknown whether this includes their "Strike drone company".

The 128th mountain assault division has apparently taken it's place.

Geolocated footage and reports from a Russian source indicate that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and recaptured the village of Ivano-darivka and re-entered Spirne in the Siversk sector.

It is unknown what was used for this attack, and we know the footage wasn't old because a Russian source which is generally a bit behind with Ukrainian advances confirmed it.

Ukrainian forces advanced for a maximum of ~1.1km.

I swear to God, if this is true, I'm going to lose it. Do they not learn??

Russian milblogger Romanov claimed that Ukraine has started an offensive in the polohy district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

If this is true then it is possible that they are going for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

More to come.

There are also reports of troop buildups in the Kamyanske direction and increased drone strikes and artillery fire by the AFU.

Update from Kursk - Snagost sector:

Geolocated footage has finally confirmed the large Ukrainian advance in and around Snagost, with Ukrainian forces now being geolocated less than 3km from the Seym river.

Ukrainian forces captured the villages of Tolstyi Lug, Pokrovskii, Obukhovka, Upsenovka, Byakhovo, Snagost, Apanasovka, and Vishnevka.

Tolstyi Lug and Pokrovskii were taken near the beginning of the operation, however control over these villages was only visually confirmed just now. From there, Ukrainian forces village hopped all the way to Snagost where heavy fighting ensued. The settlement changed hands multiple times before Ukrainian forces finally established solid control over it. From there, building off their momentum, the AFU advanced to the village of Vishnevka, while also branching off from Snagost, attacking and capturing the village of Apanasovka.

Upsenovka was also captured, likely on the same day that the operation was launched on Gordeevka. This forced a Russian withdrawal from positions in and around Byakhovo.

As for now, heavy fighting is ongoing for Komarovka and Krasnooktyabr'skoe, with the goal being to solidfy control over a section of the eastern bank of the Seym river, completely cutting off supplies from the Russian groupings in southern Glushkovsky district.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have likely captured the village of Komyshivka and the nearby trench fortifications by the Vovcha river. This puts Ukrainian trench fortifications in the blue into a semi-encirclement.

Reports are already coming in that Ukraine has withdrawn from the next village of Ptyche, and that the Russians are about to enter the village, however this has not been confirmed. If true, assaults on Kalynove will likely start in the next day or two.

Update: More and more sources are reporting that the offensive has not yet started, but troop concentrations are reportedly still being built up in the Polohy and Kamyanske directions. The entire Polohy district is on combat alert. Apparently, it is silent right now and could start at any moment.

As I predicted, Russian forces advanced from Paraskoviivka in the direction of the dachas to the northeast of Kostyantynivka. They likely advanced along the forests to the north of the reservoir using infantry before launching attacks on the dachas. It is unknown whether the attacks on the dachas were succesful or not.

This advance also indicates that Russian forces seized the small, forested areas directly west of Paraskoviivka.

These advances likely have the goal of capturing the dachas and providing a supporting axis for the offensive operations inside the main part of Kostyantynivka.

Topographic map of the current situation in Kursk Oblast based on geolocations and reliable reports.

Black = International border
Red = estimated Russian line of control
Blue = Estimated Ukrainian line of control

The area in between the red and blue is contested, with neither side holding positions there.

This is all approximate and some areas are based on limited information and footage, so it is difficult to draw an accurate representation of the situation on the ground. This is simply my best guess.

However, if you were to take one thing away from this map, that would be that high ground matters. Ukraine is going for the high ground because they know this. Russia is trying to hold the high ground because they know this. It is also the same reason why we are seeing the localised breakthroughs in the Pokrovsk direction.

At around 7pm local time, A platoon of Ukrainian forces supported by multiple armoured vehicles reportedly launched an attack from Chernihiv Oblast into the Klimovsky district of Bryansk Oblast, near the border with Belarus. The attack focused on the border village of Zabrama.

A small arms battle ensued as the AFU tried to cross the Snov river which runs near the border. Remotely controlled explosive charges were also reportedly used.

Russian sources reported that the assault was repelled and that Ukrainian forces retreated back to their original positions.

More information to come.

Overnight, Ukraine launched another large-scale UAV attack on Russian territory. Drones were reported over Belgorod, Rostov, Volgograd, Murmansk, Krasnodar Krai, Kursk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Saratov and Tambov Oblasts.

It appears that at least 1 UAV struck the Oktyabrsky airfield in Volgograd Oblast. A large fire has broken out as a result.

Russian sources claimed that 5 UAVs were shot down in Rostov Oblast and that 1 was shot down in Krasnodar Krai,

MLRS were also launched at Kurchatov and Kursk city. Russian air defence was active but no damage was reported.

Also, NASA FIRMS data shows multiple fires burning at the airfield.

Russian forces have reportedly advanced further along the railway line to Pokrovsk and entered the town of Novohrodivka. Fighting is reportedly ongoing in the Shankhay and Kishlak microdistricts.

Sources also reported that Russian forces advanced up and along the nearby treelines, likely also attacking from newly captured positions in Orlivka.

Here is a closer-up image of the possible situation in Novohrodivka. The orange arrows are my best guess of how the Russians advanced, but in no way accurately represent how things actually played out.

The key to expanding the area of control are the two 5-story residential buildings on Parkova street. Those will likely be used as a staging ground to expand their area of control into the first high-rise residential block, before advancing to the rest of the buildings.

If I were Ukraine, I would be focusing on those two buildings as much as possible with FPV drones and artillery. I would suggest counterattacks, but I seriously doubt they have the manpower necessary for that.