Russian strategic comms were activated. Possible missile attack today involving Tu-95MS bombers.

The activity is indicative of an upcoming missile strike. 75% probability.

Currently, 2 Kablir-carriers are in the waters of the black sea, with a total possible salvo of up to 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. More may follow, and launches are possible from the ports.

Lots of launches of Geran-2 drones are being recorded.

Berdyansk Airbase, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Millerevo Aribase, Rostov oblast.
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsymbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.

Considering there are 2-4 Tu-95s stationed at Engels-2 right now, if a missile attack does take place, we may see these ones take part, even though they aren't stationed at Olenya.

Additionally, if there is an attack, it will finally confirm that Tu-95s and Tu-160s are indeed being equipped with missiles at Belaya Airbase.

Chatter on Russian Strategic frequencies is still ongoing.

The Russians turned on a masker on one of the combat frequencies.

It's been 3+ years and they have finally decided to do something about radio interceptions lmao.

That's a new one

Additional possible launches of Geran-2 drones from Shatalovo Airbase in Smolensk Oblast and Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast.

7 directions in total now. Ukrainian monitors expect upwards of 300 Gerans tonight.

Possible launches of Geran-2 drones from Cape Chauda, Crimea.

Repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from Cape Chauda

Correction: The two kalibr carriers in the Black Sea are submarines of the Varshavyanka project.

Total possible salvo of 12 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from Berdyansk Airbase in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Repeated launches of Gerans from Shatalovo Airbase in Smolensk Oblast

Tu-95s departed from Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast. The number is currently unknown.

~50 Geran-2 drones are over Ukraine right now.

Currently there are 2 confirmed Tu-95s airborne. They are flying southeast, presumably over the White Sea towards the first set of launch lines in Engels district of Saratov Oblast.

As the departure is earlier than usual for a typical strike night, the purpose of the flights is not definite.

The confirmed number of Tu-95s airborne has increased to 4.

Edit: Its still 2

4-7 Tu-95s are now confirmed to be airborne.