Update from Kursk Oblast - Korenevo front:

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative in this part of the frontline and have once again pushed back the Russians near Korenevo. Previously, a Russian counterattack pushed the Ukrainians away from Korenevo, but footage has just come out showing Russian FPV drones attacking Ukrainian positions near the Reservoir.

Reports also indicate that Ukrainian forces expanded their spearhead on the northern flank and captured the villages of Matveevka and Olgovka. Chechan "Akhmat" forces responded by attacking and recapturing the village of Kremyanoe slightly further east, possibly in an attempt to seize the forests and cut the Ukrainian spearhead off at the base.

As for the situation further south, Russian forces reportedly pushed the Ukrainians away from the village of Snagost, before the AFU counterattacked, recapturing the settlement and breaking through Russian positions to the Seym River, contesting the village of Krasnooktyabr'skoe.

Overall, while the advances in the green remain unconfirmed, it does indicate that Ukraine is stepping up their efforts to capture the key town and railway hub of Korenevo by conducting a pincer movement on the settlement. This offensive is not over and is about to get a lot bloodier.

Regarding the situation in Klishchiivka:

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced and captured the tactical height west of Klishchiivka known as "215.7."

This is significant for two reasons:

1. It means that the Russians have captured the "axe" stronghold, which overlooks Klishchiivka

2. It means that as they are now on the tactical heights, they exert fire control over the village. Previously Ukrainian forces had full control over the tactical heights, therefore preventing the Russians from accumulating in the village.

Now that the Russians control at least part of the heights, it means that they can accumulate forces in Klishchiivka and use it as a staging ground for future operations against the rest of the Ukrainian fortifications between Klishchiivka and the Siversky-Donets Canal, with the end goal being to capture the rest of the territory behind the canal in order to launch further assaults to get behind Toretsk, reaching Kostyantynivka.

This, plus a simultaneous advance in Chasiv Yar will effectively roll back the frontline to Kostyantynivka and allow the Russians to enter the Kramatorsk agglomeration. At least that's my prediction, and to be clear, I'm not saying it will all stem from this one tiny advance. This advance is just a small step in the direction of reaching Kostyantynivka. This will take a long time for Russia to do, as Ukraine continues to put up strong resistance in Chasiv Yar, but as I've been saying for months - Once Chasiv Yar falls, it's all over for Northern Donetsk. Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk are the keys to capturing the Oblast.

A Russian source reported that Ukrainian snipers are setting up firing positions on the roofs of high-rise buildings in Sudzha (likely the central part of the town).

5 Ukrainian UAVs were launched at Kursk city and are currently flying over Khomutovsky district of Kursk Oblast.

More to come.

Russian air defence is active in Donetsk city and Makiivka, likely against Ukrainian MLRS.

Traces of air defence in the skies over Donetsk city.

It is reported that units of the 80th and 82nd brigades of the AFU were withdrawn from Kursk Oblast due to significant losses. It is important to note that this is currently unconfirmed.

Geolocated footage indicates that following the consolidation of recaptured positions in Hlyboke, Russian forces have restarted offensive operations on the Dachas north of Lyptsi in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

They attacked with several armoured vehicles and motorised rifle units. It is currently unknown if the attack was successful or not.

Fighterbomber reported that today's Ukrainian UAV attack was "effective on some airfields". 3 airfields were reportedly attacked, so presumably 2 were hit?

Small fire at Savasleika airfield, possibly at a fuel depot. It is important to note that this is where MiG-31K's usually take off from.

— 🇺🇸/🇸🇾 BREAKING: Initial reports of a rocket or drone attack on the U.S. occupation base in Conoco oilfield in Syria

@Middle_East_Spectator

I swear the elevation in the Pokrovsk direction was built for a successful Russian advance.

Like seriously, look at this: The tactical heights follow the railway line from Avdiivka, to Ocheretyne to Novohrodivka. The windbreaks on either side of the tracks can be used as cover for infantry from Ukrainian artillery and FPV drones.

The tactical heights then make a perfect curve around the Vovcha river, getting behind the Ukrainian defences before stretching behind Krasnohorivka to Kurakhove.

It branches out into more heights leading to Pokrovsk and other nearby towns, and even continues to go all the way to Dobropillya.

And if that wasn't enough, there is a ridgeline running right over the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka Highway. It literally couldn't be worse, and Ukraine has largely focused on the wrong areas to defend, eg. the western bank of the Vovcha river.

Compare this to Sloviansk-Kramatorsk for example. The Russians have to go over the hills and through gulleys to get to those cities. Now I know why the Russians chose the Pokrovsk direction over anything else.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction - Novohrodivka front:

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Russian forces made yet another localised breakthrough, and within 24 hours advanced from Serhiivka, along the railway line and up the adjacent treelines.

Here they managed to capture the village of Orlivka, while the AFU responded by hitting Russian infantry in the village with drone-dropped anti-tank mines. The Russians also managed to enter the southern part of Zhuravka, capturing the first few houses of the settlement, with reliable reports indicating that Russian forces advanced to the centre of the village.

Slightly further south in Mykolaivka, reliable reports indicate that Russian forces branched off from the railway line once again and entered the northernmost houses of this settlement.

As for the situation in Zhelanne, I was pretty sure that the village had been captured, however we were still waiting on geolocations of a Russian presence inside it. Footage surfaced today showing Russian positions being shelled by Ukrainian forces in the central part of the settlement.

Overall, it appears that following the Russian consolidation of positions in and around Prohres and the intense urban warfare in Zhelanne, the Russians have restarted large-scale offensive operations.

A Ukrainian officer working in the Pokrovsk direction stated "On the Pokrovsky direction, on our side, there are exhausted units that have been terrorized by aviation for days, and then assaulted by infantry 10 to 1. In addition, there is really combat-ready enemy infantry fighting there, storming from 4-5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. every day."

As for the situation on the Hrodivka front of the Pokrovsk direction, while there have been no visual confirmations of any Russian advances over the past few days, reliable reports indicate that Russian forces advanced on a wide front from Hrodivka to Tymofiivka.

Following the likely capture of Tymofiivka, Russian forces attempted an encirclement maneuver of Ukrainian formations south of the village. From what I've heard, the AFU was able to withdraw in time.

A few days later, Russian forces likely advanced from Ivanivka and the adjacent treelines to Lysychne, before village hopping to Svyrydonivka, capturing them both likely within 24 hours of each other.

In Hrodivka, the Russians attempted another encirclement maneuver, this time from western Ivanivka, and Hrodivka. Again, the Ukrainians were able to withdraw in time, pulling back to eastern and central Hrodivka.

Russian forces also likely advanced from the ruins of the former factory to the residential area of Hrodivka, establishing a foothold in the town.

Overall, while none of these advances are confirmed, they remain likely. I think we can expect all of the remaining territory east of the Kazenyi Torets river and it's tributary to fall in the next week or two.

Explosions were reported in Sumy Oblast.

Iskander missiles.

Topographical analysis on the tactical situation near Korenevo, Kursk Oblast:

Following Ukraine regaining the initiative in this sector of the frontline, I thought I'd make another post covering the topography of this region, how it affects the ongoing battles and what we can expect from it in the future.

Firstly, let's take a look at the different hills here. There are three main groups of hills, I'll call them tactical heights as they are only around 120 metres higher than the lowest ground in the area.

Two of these tactical heights are under the control of Russian forces, while one is contested, but mostly under control of the AFU. Let's call them height 1, 2 and 3 (as shown on the map). Height 1 is currently almost entirely under the control of the AFU. Ukrainian forces were able to catch the Russians by surprise by advancing up the Sudzha-Korenevo road and establishing positions on the other side of the heights near the Krepna river.

The Russians, who obviously didn't want to lose control over these heights, launched a hasty counterattack using Chechen "Akhmat" forces, which resulted in them recapturing the village of Kremyanoe and establishing a small foothold on the northern face of tactical height 1. Their goal may have been to cut the Ukrainians off at the base, but due to the nature of the topography, they lost momentum quickly and were unable to do this.

The Russians also maintain a foothold on a separated height, which I still consider a part of height 1, however the fact that this part is contested makes it difficult to see the usefulness of holding positions here. That might explain why reports came in today that Ukrainian forces had captured that area, namely the small forest.

I won't talk much about tactical height 3, as it is fully controlled by Russian forces and is on the other side of the Seym river, but it is important to note that controlling this height does allow the Russians to exert fire control over Korenevo, meaning that they can accumulate troops inside the town. It also allows them to have better surveillance of the surrounding areas and detect Ukrainian attacks in advance.

In my opinion, the main think to watch out for is tactical height 2. If the Ukrainians can capture this, then it would allow them to open up another front against the Russians in Korenevo and possibly encircle it against the Seym river, similarly to what happened in eastern and central Sudzha.

How could the Ukrainians capture these heights? Well, they may already have started attempting to do this. Many people saw the original goal of this offensive being to reach the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant, and to cut the E38 highway which runs through Lgov. However, I'm wondering if there may have been a secondary goal with attacking in this direction, that being to branch off from the main assault vector in order to seize tactical height 2. While the AFU could have just assaulted it head on, it wouldn't make sense to do this, as if they are already planning on attacking to the E38 highway, they may as well leverage their control in the highlands to advance to Korenevo from another direction - a direction other than the one from the Sudzha-Korenevo road.

On a secondary note, this would also give them the opportunity of cutting the Rylsk-Korenevo road which runs near the eastern bank of the Seym river and resupplies Korenevo. Cutting this would significantly negatively affect the situation for the garrison stationed in Korenevo and could force a withdrawal over the Seym river.

Overall, while it is impossible to predict things with 100% certainty, we are able to make assumptions based on a number of factors, with one of those being the topography of the chosen region. Russia has been known to follow the high ground in the past, and this tactic works for them in an attritional sense, so why wouldn't Ukraine try out the same thing as this Kursk offensive turns more and more attritional as more time goes by?

Note: The lines of control on the map are very approximate and in no way accurately reflect the situation on the ground. It is simply my best guess on what it may look like on the ground based on reliable reports and visual confirmations. As time goes by, and the fog of war dissipates, we will begin to gain a clearer idea of what the frontline looks like and who controls what.