🇺🇦 The Ukrainian elites have shaped their foreign policy interest — attracting Western countries to their side and turning Ukraine into a bulwark against Russia.
Instead of focusing on internal development, Ukraine is striving at all costs to attract the attention, and better the resources of the West for confrontation with Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#Conflict_and_Leadership
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-s-foreign-policy-as-an-experiment/
Instead of focusing on internal development, Ukraine is striving at all costs to attract the attention, and better the resources of the West for confrontation with Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#Conflict_and_Leadership
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-s-foreign-policy-as-an-experiment/
Valdai Club
Ukraine’s Foreign Policy as an Experiment
The Ukrainian elites have shaped their foreign policy interest — attracting Western countries to their side and turning Ukraine into a bulwark against Russia. Instead of focusing on internal development, Ukraine is striving at all costs to attract the attention…
🇺🇸🇦🇫 The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was one of the foreign policy steps of President Joseph Biden. Why did it happen right now?
1️⃣ First, it was argued that conditions had been created in Afghanistan where the government in Kabul could retain power for at least several months after the departure of the Americans.
2️⃣ Second, it had become acutely clear that the US presence in Afghanistan was not pursuing significant political goals. It was this idea that became the leitmotif of President Biden’s speech, in which he explained the meaning of the American troops’ withdrawal. This is paradoxical in itself. The United States has spent 20 years and about $1.5 trillion — an amount comparable to Russia’s annual GDP — on the implementation of a politically dead-end foreign policy programme.
3️⃣ Third, realism returned to American assessments, and Afghanistan took its due peripheral place in the hierarchy of American interests. The National Intelligence Council’s annual report listing American threats has deservedly put the fight against terrorism in one of the last places.
4️⃣ Finally, the United States has realised that it must concentrate its resources on the key area, the confrontation with China.
For 20 years, the United States had a painful experience in the Middle East and the whole world was a spectator in this process, without influencing American actions in any way.
Why do Americans get away with their experiments so easily? Writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-much-is-experience-worth-twenty-years-of-us/
#Conflict_and_Leadership @valdai_club
1️⃣ First, it was argued that conditions had been created in Afghanistan where the government in Kabul could retain power for at least several months after the departure of the Americans.
2️⃣ Second, it had become acutely clear that the US presence in Afghanistan was not pursuing significant political goals. It was this idea that became the leitmotif of President Biden’s speech, in which he explained the meaning of the American troops’ withdrawal. This is paradoxical in itself. The United States has spent 20 years and about $1.5 trillion — an amount comparable to Russia’s annual GDP — on the implementation of a politically dead-end foreign policy programme.
3️⃣ Third, realism returned to American assessments, and Afghanistan took its due peripheral place in the hierarchy of American interests. The National Intelligence Council’s annual report listing American threats has deservedly put the fight against terrorism in one of the last places.
4️⃣ Finally, the United States has realised that it must concentrate its resources on the key area, the confrontation with China.
For 20 years, the United States had a painful experience in the Middle East and the whole world was a spectator in this process, without influencing American actions in any way.
Why do Americans get away with their experiments so easily? Writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-much-is-experience-worth-twenty-years-of-us/
#Conflict_and_Leadership @valdai_club
Valdai Club
How Much is Experience Worth? Twenty Years of US Experiments in the Middle East
For 20 years, the United States had a painful experience in the Middle East and the whole world was a spectator in this process, without influencing American actions in any way. Why do Americans get away with their experiments so easily?
🇦🇫🇺🇸 The Western withdrawal from Afghanistan makes it clear once again that the unipolar Western order that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago is coming to an end.
The multipolar world order is a reality. The vacuum left by the West in the Middle East will very quickly be filled by China and Russia.
The US has made its strategic choice, and its European allies have no choice but to follow Washington further. America will focus on containing China and Russia – the two main rivals in the fight to preserve the pro-Western world order. The danger of Islamism, the emergence of a new "Islamic State" in the Middle East - is considered secondary by the USA. Unfortunately, the international community will have to live with this miscalculation.
The West has contributed to the destabilization of the Arab world by supporting the Arab revolutions, and now it must accept that its diplomacy based solely on liberal values has been fatal. The West has lied to itself by believing that it can always delight the entire world with its liberal ideals, writes Alexander Rahr, Research Director of the German-Russian Forum.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/afghanistan-a-new-vietnam-for-the-west/
#Conflict_and_Leadership @valdai_club
The multipolar world order is a reality. The vacuum left by the West in the Middle East will very quickly be filled by China and Russia.
The US has made its strategic choice, and its European allies have no choice but to follow Washington further. America will focus on containing China and Russia – the two main rivals in the fight to preserve the pro-Western world order. The danger of Islamism, the emergence of a new "Islamic State" in the Middle East - is considered secondary by the USA. Unfortunately, the international community will have to live with this miscalculation.
The West has contributed to the destabilization of the Arab world by supporting the Arab revolutions, and now it must accept that its diplomacy based solely on liberal values has been fatal. The West has lied to itself by believing that it can always delight the entire world with its liberal ideals, writes Alexander Rahr, Research Director of the German-Russian Forum.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/afghanistan-a-new-vietnam-for-the-west/
#Conflict_and_Leadership @valdai_club
Valdai Club
Afghanistan: A New Vietnam for the West
The US, NATO, EU and the West – they failed miserably in Afghanistan. The withdrawal from the Hindu Kush and the resulting disaster are comparable to the ignominious defeat of the USA in Vietnam half a century ago.
🇺🇸🇦🇫 Biden, an experienced politician, took an important theme from the Republicans: “the end of forever wars”.
America’s image as a “responsible superpower” has faltered, but it is unlikely that American allies in other regions will learn from this story.
For Eurasia, the Taliban’s coming to power is fraught with not leaving, but returning the topic of combating terrorism to the current agenda, and the advanced American weapons left in Afghanistan hypothetically bring this struggle to a new technological level, writes Valdai Club expert Maxim Suchkov @postamerica.
#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #Biden
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/biden-s-withrawal-from-afghanistan-consequences/
America’s image as a “responsible superpower” has faltered, but it is unlikely that American allies in other regions will learn from this story.
For Eurasia, the Taliban’s coming to power is fraught with not leaving, but returning the topic of combating terrorism to the current agenda, and the advanced American weapons left in Afghanistan hypothetically bring this struggle to a new technological level, writes Valdai Club expert Maxim Suchkov @postamerica.
#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #Biden
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/biden-s-withrawal-from-afghanistan-consequences/
Valdai Club
Biden’s Withdrawal From Afghanistan: Consequences for the United States and Russia
America’s image as a “responsible superpower” has faltered, but it is unlikely that American allies in other regions will learn from this story. For Eurasia, the Taliban’s coming to power is fraught with not leaving, but returning the topic of combating terrorism…
🇺🇸🇷🇺 If there is one lesson to take from the Cold War it is that even when bilateral relations are most strained everyone benefits from continued communication.
The dialogue, which was announced following a summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 16th June, has been seen as an important first step in addressing a growing range of national and global security concerns held by both parties, and to hopefully lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures.
What is hoped is that these high-level meetings will help to address the most pressing national security concerns, explore possibilities for arms control and thus hopefully prevent a future arms race and conflict, writes Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester, UK. Professor Futter’s work is currently funded by the European Research Council.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-russia-strategic-stability-dialogue-why/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #US #Russia @valdai_club
The dialogue, which was announced following a summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 16th June, has been seen as an important first step in addressing a growing range of national and global security concerns held by both parties, and to hopefully lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures.
What is hoped is that these high-level meetings will help to address the most pressing national security concerns, explore possibilities for arms control and thus hopefully prevent a future arms race and conflict, writes Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester, UK. Professor Futter’s work is currently funded by the European Research Council.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-russia-strategic-stability-dialogue-why/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #US #Russia @valdai_club
Valdai Club
US-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue: Why It’s Good to Talk
The symbolism of the two-leading nuclear-armed states recognising the dangers of a more complex and perhaps dangerous global nuclear order is significant, and neither party will lose anything by seeking to better understand the potential flashpoints and pathways…
🇺🇸🇦🇫 The war in Afghanistan is an extraordinary textbook on the American strategy that can be summed up as a growing up novel.
Inflated expectations, a sense of omnipotence, which, through a series of crises, gives way to deep disappointment and the overestimation of goals.
This painful experience for the United States was too expensive, but perhaps it will push it to become more sober in the future, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-war-in-afghanistan-as-a-textbook-on-us/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #USA @valdai_club
Inflated expectations, a sense of omnipotence, which, through a series of crises, gives way to deep disappointment and the overestimation of goals.
This painful experience for the United States was too expensive, but perhaps it will push it to become more sober in the future, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-war-in-afghanistan-as-a-textbook-on-us/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #USA @valdai_club
Valdai Club
The War in Afghanistan as a Textbook on US Strategy, or How I Came into the Profession of Studying American Wars
The war in Afghanistan is an extraordinary textbook on the American strategy that can be summed up as a growing up novel. Inflated expectations, a sense of omnipotence, which, through a series of crises, gives way to deep disappointment and the overestimation…
❌🌎 What the West does not understand is that NATO is facing a historic end after the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Even if the West does not want to admit it, the terrorists responsible for the attacks of 9/11 exactly twenty years ago inflicted a historic defeat on the West and drove NATO out of the Middle East.
The aim of Bin Laden's diabolical plan was to lure the US into the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan in order to defeat it there in the gruelling petty war. The West is footing the bill for its mindless policies.
Instead of promoting democracy in the region, NATO has left behind a field of devastation. Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan have become failed states. Worse still, instead of Arab nationalism, the "Islamic State" will be resurrected on the territories of these countries – ideologically and militarily directed against the West. And much stronger than in Iraq at the time.
Who needs a highly armed military alliance that has been defeated by local Islamists?
The real lessons of 9/11 have yet to be learned, writes Alexander Rahr, Research Director of the German-Russian Forum.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/9-11-and-the-defeat-of-the-west/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #NATO #Afghanistan
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Even if the West does not want to admit it, the terrorists responsible for the attacks of 9/11 exactly twenty years ago inflicted a historic defeat on the West and drove NATO out of the Middle East.
The aim of Bin Laden's diabolical plan was to lure the US into the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan in order to defeat it there in the gruelling petty war. The West is footing the bill for its mindless policies.
Instead of promoting democracy in the region, NATO has left behind a field of devastation. Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan have become failed states. Worse still, instead of Arab nationalism, the "Islamic State" will be resurrected on the territories of these countries – ideologically and militarily directed against the West. And much stronger than in Iraq at the time.
Who needs a highly armed military alliance that has been defeated by local Islamists?
The real lessons of 9/11 have yet to be learned, writes Alexander Rahr, Research Director of the German-Russian Forum.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/9-11-and-the-defeat-of-the-west/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #NATO #Afghanistan
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
9/11 and the Defeat of the West
Even if the West does not want to admit it, the terrorists responsible for the attacks of 9/11 exactly twenty years ago inflicted a historic defeat on the West and drove NATO out of the Middle East. The aim of Bin Laden's diabolical plan was to lure the US…
🇬🇧🇷🇺 Are there ways to stabilise UK-Russia relations?
There are two quick and cynical responses to what has become over the past decade an almost eternal question: how can relations between the UK and Russia be, if not improved, then at least stabilised.
1️⃣ The first would be to observe that relations have, in fact, been quite stable for most of that time - stable at a rock-bottom setting of very bad, verging on non-existent.
2️⃣ The second would be to suggest that maybe both sides like it that way, or at least that it suits their interests.
Anyway, now could be the time for both countries to start making the change, writes Mary Dejevsky, Chief editorial writer and a columnist at The Independent.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/are-there-ways-to-stabilise-uk-russia-relations/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #UK #Russia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
There are two quick and cynical responses to what has become over the past decade an almost eternal question: how can relations between the UK and Russia be, if not improved, then at least stabilised.
1️⃣ The first would be to observe that relations have, in fact, been quite stable for most of that time - stable at a rock-bottom setting of very bad, verging on non-existent.
2️⃣ The second would be to suggest that maybe both sides like it that way, or at least that it suits their interests.
Anyway, now could be the time for both countries to start making the change, writes Mary Dejevsky, Chief editorial writer and a columnist at The Independent.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/are-there-ways-to-stabilise-uk-russia-relations/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #UK #Russia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Are There Ways to Stabilise UK-Russia Relations?
There are two quick and cynical responses to what has become over the past decade an almost eternal question: how can relations between the UK and Russia be, if not improved, then at least stabilised. The first would be to observe that relations have, in…
🇷🇺🇺🇸 No one believes US-Russia reset is possible.
Indeed, neither Moscow nor Washington wants one, so great are the contradictions between them.
The most ominous threat might arise from the continuing intense rivalry in cyberspace, which could spin out of control, despite the ongoing cybersecurity dialogue.
Both have settled for the less ambitious goal of stabilizing relations to halt, if not reverse, a dangerous downward spiral. That sounds good and responsible. But what does it mean?
👉 Writes Valdai Club expert Thomas Graham.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/stabilizing-u-s-russian-relations-so-far-so-good/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #UnitedStates #Russia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Indeed, neither Moscow nor Washington wants one, so great are the contradictions between them.
The most ominous threat might arise from the continuing intense rivalry in cyberspace, which could spin out of control, despite the ongoing cybersecurity dialogue.
Both have settled for the less ambitious goal of stabilizing relations to halt, if not reverse, a dangerous downward spiral. That sounds good and responsible. But what does it mean?
👉 Writes Valdai Club expert Thomas Graham.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/stabilizing-u-s-russian-relations-so-far-so-good/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #UnitedStates #Russia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Stabilizing US-Russian Relations: So Far So Good, but Dangers Lurk
The most ominous threat might arise from the continuing intense rivalry in cyberspace, which could spin out of control, despite the ongoing cybersecurity dialogue. Ransomware attacks aside, the complexity and ambiguities of cyberspace, and the rapid advances…
🇺🇸🇦🇫 Apres nous le deluge?
The withdrawal of American troops not only turned into a worldwide crisis of confidence in the United States, but also became the biggest challenge for the presidential administration on the domestic political front.
It is becoming obvious that after the “Afghan exodus” a real war of compromising materials began in Washington. The State Department blamed the Pentagon, the Pentagon — intelligence, and intelligence agencies blamed the White House. Together they blame former President Donald Trump: he was wrong to make an agreement with the Taliban, organised the negotiation process poorly, etc. However, it was Joe Biden who turned Afghanistan into one of the most critical problems literally from scratch. It was supposed to coincide with the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
The metaphorical connection between the 20th anniversary of the terrible terrorist attacks and the inglorious end of the retaliatory operation deeply hurts the American public and the elite alike, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/apres-nous-le-deluge-afghanistan/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #UnitedStates #Biden #Afghanistan
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
The withdrawal of American troops not only turned into a worldwide crisis of confidence in the United States, but also became the biggest challenge for the presidential administration on the domestic political front.
It is becoming obvious that after the “Afghan exodus” a real war of compromising materials began in Washington. The State Department blamed the Pentagon, the Pentagon — intelligence, and intelligence agencies blamed the White House. Together they blame former President Donald Trump: he was wrong to make an agreement with the Taliban, organised the negotiation process poorly, etc. However, it was Joe Biden who turned Afghanistan into one of the most critical problems literally from scratch. It was supposed to coincide with the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
The metaphorical connection between the 20th anniversary of the terrible terrorist attacks and the inglorious end of the retaliatory operation deeply hurts the American public and the elite alike, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/apres-nous-le-deluge-afghanistan/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #UnitedStates #Biden #Afghanistan
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Apres Nous le Deluge? Afghanistan after the Withdrawal of US Troops
The lightning-fast fall of the Afghan regime in 2021 was caused, among other things, by the unwillingness of the United States to pursue a policy of legitimising its henchmen in the eyes of the population.
🇺🇸🇦🇫 Since the mid-2000s, the Americans themselves have begun to admit that the strategy of democratisation both in Iraq and in Afghanistan had turned out to be wrong and did not bring results.
Systematically, the Americans failed, because they were not able to build trusting relationships with a society that they did not respect, considering it underdeveloped, archaic, chaotic, and completely undemocratic, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-was-the-soviet-experience-not-useful-to-the-un/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #UnitedStates
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Systematically, the Americans failed, because they were not able to build trusting relationships with a society that they did not respect, considering it underdeveloped, archaic, chaotic, and completely undemocratic, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-was-the-soviet-experience-not-useful-to-the-un/
#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #UnitedStates
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Why Was the Soviet Experience Not Useful to the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq?
From the point of view of American discourse, the Soviet approach to engage a former enemy in cooperation, based on a combination of forceful pressure and a system of compromises, is not a post-conflict settlement.
🇮🇳🇦🇫🇺🇸 India has yet to come to terms with the Taliban takeover. The Taliban cabinet consists of UN-sanctioned individuals who have committed heinous terror attacks in the past. The Taliban are not independent, writes Arvind Gupta, Director of the New Delhi-based Vivekananda International Foundation.
#Conflict_and_Leadership #India #Afghanistan #UnitedStates
🔗 How Will the Collapse of the Government in Afghanistan Affect Relations Between India and the United States?
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
#Conflict_and_Leadership #India #Afghanistan #UnitedStates
🔗 How Will the Collapse of the Government in Afghanistan Affect Relations Between India and the United States?
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
How Will the Collapse of the Government in Afghanistan Affect Relations Between India and the United States?
India has yet to come to terms with the Taliban takeover. The Taliban cabinet consists of UN-sanctioned individuals who have committed heinous terror attacks in the past. The Taliban are not independent, writes Arvind Gupta, Director of the New Delhi-based…