🗣 On June 27, 2024, the Valdai Discussion Club held a discussion on the confiscation of Russian assets abroad.

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#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions #RussianAssets

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💸 In April 2024, the United States approved H. R. 8038, the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act, which provides for the possibility of confiscating Russia’s sovereign assets. It represents a serious precedent that entails a number of questions.

❓What does the decision mean for the global economy and the current financial system?
❓What are the prospects for replicating such solutions within the collective West?
❓How symmetrical is the Russian response, embodied in Presidential Decree No. 442, establishing a special procedure for compensation for damage caused to Russia by the United States?

The adopted decision contradicts not only the norms of international law, which is designed to guarantee the immunity of the sovereign property of states (and the official reserves of the country and the property of the Central Bank are precisely that), but also America’s own laws, particularly the US Foreign Immunity Act of 1976.

Legalising the possibility of confiscation of Russia’s sovereign assets, as well as denying Russian owners of frozen assets the right to apply to American courts for legal protection, will further exacerbate the crisis of confidence in Western jurisdictions, reserve currencies and the global financial system in its current configuration.

As practice shows, the implementation of legislatively formalised decisions on the confiscation of sovereign assets can be difficult due to the lack of procedural issues, Ekaterina Arapova writes.

Despite the intensification of confiscation rhetoric, the Western authorities cannot fail to understand that the cascading of such practices from the United States both causes serious damage to the reputation of a reliable financial hub of their jurisdictions, and provokes retaliatory measures from Russia.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/confiscation-of-russian-assets/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions #RussianAssets

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On August 16 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

Over the past 500 years in history, there have been many cases of various economic restrictions against Russia. Another such period began in 2012, when the US Congress passed the “Magnitsky Act”. After Crimea’s reunification with Russia and the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, there has been a significant escalation of anti-Russian sanctions by the US, EU and other countries of the “collective West”. Since February 2022, they have been using almost all known instruments of unilateral restrictive measures against Russia.

Despite economic pressure, the Russian economy and financial system have maintained stability. The sanctions were unable to influence Moscow’s political course. At the same time, many economic ties between Russia and Western countries were severed or distorted under the influence of sanctions. Both Russian and foreign businesses suffered damage.

Historical experience and current developments suggest that restrictive measures against Russia may remain on the agenda for decades. The Ukrainian crisis is still far from being resolved. However, the resolution of political conflicts in itself does not lead to a sustainable lifting or easing of sanctions.

❓How long will the sanctions war last? 
❓What are the prospects for increasing pressure on Russia and its partners? 
❓What coercive measures and secondary sanctions could there be in the future? 
❓How can they be resisted in today’s conditions? 

The discussion participants will address these and other questions.  

🎙️ Speakers: 

🇷🇺 Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry @MFARussia

🇷🇺 Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics, HSE

🇳🇴 Glenn Diesen, Professor, University of South-Eastern Norway

🇷🇺 Sergey Glandin, Partner at the BGP Litigation, Attorney  

Moderator:

🗣 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-sanctions-against-russia/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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♟️ One of the key challenges facing the initiators of economic sanctions is in creating a coalition of countries willing to implement the restrictive measures.

A common thesis in the research literature is that the presence of such a coalition enhances the effectiveness of sanctions pressure — the more countries support sanctions, the more difficult it is to circumvent them.

The emergence of “black knights”, that is, states that deliberately torpedo sanctions regimes, however, can significantly devalue the imposed sanctions.

A big problem for the initiators of sanctions has been third countries that maintain distance from the confrontation with Russia. Thus, while British experts state that sanctions complicate the functioning of the Russian military-industrial complex and the economy as a whole, they maintain that they do not interfere with the resolution of political problems, including the conflict in Ukraine; the circumvention of sanctions through third countries is one of the reasons.

Numerous tactics to circumvent sanctions in the form of supplies through third countries are still hardly the most serious problem for the West.

A much more serious challenge is Moscow’s consistent policy of building transaction mechanisms independent of the Western financial infrastructure, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/without-black-knights-do-third-countries/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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📆 TOMORROW, August 16, at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

❓How long will the sanctions war last? 
❓What are the prospects for increasing pressure on Russia and its partners? 
❓What coercive measures and secondary sanctions could there be in the future? 
❓How can they be resisted in today’s conditions? 

The discussion participants will address these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239203

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🗣 On August 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🇷🇺 History for Decades: The Present and Future of Sanctions Against Russia

On August 16, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, “Sanctions against Russia – from here to eternity?” Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted that despite the legal possibility of lifting unilateral restrictive measures, the reasons for their introduction against Russia remain and are getting worse. Accordingly, he added, Russia will probably live under sanctions for decades.

💬 Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasised that the West, in its geopolitical confrontation with Russia, is trying to use interdependence in global relations as a weapon, and these illegal measures generate destructive consequences for all parties and limit the rights of states to sovereign independent development. However, no matter how difficult they are for many industries, they ultimately force Russia to restructure the entire economy and create high-value-added products within the country. Birichevsky also noted the importance of cooperation with the Global South and integration in the Greater Eurasia space against this backdrop. 

💬 Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics at HSE, believes that the West will primarily improve mechanisms for oversight in the area of compliance with sanctions. The result will be a constant search for dynamic solutions and alternative ways to circumvent restrictions - a kind of eternal game of "sanctions cat and mouse". She believes that the second important factor is pressure on countries friendly to Russia in industries in which the right to work with Russia was not specifically stipulated. For Russia in this context, it will be important to expand the range and develop and complicate cooperation mechanisms, rather than increase trade turnover as such. All this, according to Likhacheva, means that it is no longer possible to be guided by the imperative of cost efficiency and that it is necessary to constantly maintain a balance between a sustainability strategy and a development strategy based on flexibility. 

💬 Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, believes that in the long term, the effectiveness of sanctions will decrease significantly, because the world is moving towards multipolarity, and the dependence of other countries on the West is decreasing. It can be assumed that the sanctions will continue to intensify, but this will make it even more difficult to convince the rest of the world, which trusts the West less and less, to comply with them. “I believe that the international system led by the US is slowly disintegrating,” Diesen concluded. “Of course, we need a new economic system with reliable supply chains, reliable transport corridors, and reliable banks.” In this regard, he sees a great future for BRICS. 

💬 Sergey Glandin, Partner at the BGP Litigation, Attorney, spoke about judicial practice in cases of lifting sanctions in the US and EU, and also considered the terminology of the case and the issue of the legitimacy of unilateral sanctions, emphasising that Russia does not recognise any sanctions imposed in circumvention of the UN Security Council as legitimate. Speaking about the prospects, he suggested that if Donald Trump is elected US President, lifting some of the sanctions will be theoretically possible, since American presidents often cancel their predecessors' decrees on sanctions - the law does not require such decisions to be coordinated with Congress. As for the EU, according to the Treaty on European Union, "restrictive measures" are introduced, lifted and extended unanimously.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/history-for-decades-the-present-and-future-of-sanctions-against-russia/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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⛔️ Sanctions, as an important tool in international politics, are unlikely to disappear.

This also applies to unilateral sanctions: the West will continue to impose those restrictive measures on states that oppose it and whose policies do not correspond to Western interests.

However, support for such moves will continue to erode, writes Milana Živanović.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/future-of-sanctions-policy-in-a-multipolar-world/

🗣 The author is a participant of the Valdai - New Generation project.

#WiderEurasia #sanctions #Valdai_NewGeneration

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On September 9 at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of its  report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

After February 24, 2022, the Western countries imposed an unprecedentedly broad set of economic restrictions on Russia. Russia is not the first country to face such a range of sanctions, but the speed with which they were imposed has been unprecedented. In just a few months, Russia has received a set of restrictions that, for instance, Iran has faced over the past 43 years. Russia can learn from Iran's experience in adapting to and overcoming such restrictions.

Iran has had to endure a wide set of restrictions. The financial sector there continues to suffer. Iran’s ability to export oil and import essential industrial goods and equipment is limited.

Despite the punitive economic measures, the Islamic Republic was able to successfully advance in a number of industrial and technologically intensive sectors, creating industrial niches, which were important for the country’s security. The problems that arise in the Iranian economy under sanctions are also important. These include difficulties in settlements with foreign counterparties, the stability of the national currency, and access to foreign equipment.

❓What financial mechanisms does Iran use for mutual settlements?
❓How does Iran compensate for the lack of technology?
❓How has the role of sanctions changed in the Iranian economy?
❓What lessons can Russia learn from the Iranian experience?
❓What are the prospects for cooperation in countering sanctions pressure?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Maxim Baranov, Acting Director of the Second Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry

🇷🇺 Sumbula Sultanova, Executive Secretary of the Russian-Iranian Business Council

🇮🇷 Kayhan Barzegar, Senior Academic Advisor at the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS)

🇷🇺 Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Senior Researcher and Head of the Eastern Cultural Centre at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

🇷🇺 Adlan Margoev, Researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO

Moderator:

🗣 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-present-a-report-on-how-iran-s-economy-copes-with-sanctions/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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⏰ TODAY at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of its  report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

❓What financial mechanisms does Iran use for mutual settlements?
❓How does Iran compensate for the lack of technology?
❓How has the role of sanctions changed in the Iranian economy?
❓What lessons can Russia learn from the Iranian experience?
❓What are the prospects for cooperation in countering sanctions pressure?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting the presentation of the Valdai report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239204

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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🗣 On September 9, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted the presentation of its new report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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🇮🇷 How to Fight Sanctions: The Iranian Experience

On September 9, the Valdai Discussion Club presented the report “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

💬 The discussion was moderated by Ivan Timofeev, the Club’s programme director, who noted that Iran remains one of the key cases for those studying the use of sanctions, and that Iran’s experience is extremely important for Russia. Timofeev emphasised that, while this experience cannot be copied literally, it requires careful, unbiased, and objective study.

💬 Adlan Margoev, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO and a co-author of the report, briefly outlined some of its key points. Margoev analysed Iran’s reaction to the sanctions, noting that Tehran was simultaneously trying to reach an agreement with the initiators and adapt to the terms of the sanctions. According to him, the results of Iran’s attempts to reach an agreement show that sanctions are a “one-way ticket.” Even if at some point it is possible to remove or soften them, it is very difficult to ensure the sustainability of this deal. The analyst noted that Iran, despite colossal sanctions pressure, is coping with its basic needs - and this is certainly a positive experience - but it cannot yet scale this success to the entire economy.

💬 Maxim Baranov, Acting Director of the Second Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that the approach outlined in the report is of interest both from the point of view of assessing the development of modern Iran and from the point of view of survival under sanctions. The diplomat named the need for far-reaching work to create a regulatory framework for combating sanctions. The corresponding declaration signed by Russia and Iran is becoming a basic document for interaction with other countries and can serve as a basis for transferring anti-sanction cooperation from a bilateral to a multilateral format. "Sanctions are not our choice. But we can choose how to fight them," Baranov added.

💬 Kayhan Barzegar, Senior Academic Advisor at the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), acknowledged that sanctions have caused serious difficulties for the Iranian economy, but added that Iran is capable of coping with them and will not collapse under any circumstances. Sanctions put pressure on the Iranian people, especially the middle class, but they cannot alter the country's strategic approaches and priorities. Barzegar noted that Iran is now actively involved in regional politics, using its advantageous geographical location, and this has delivered extremely positive results. The reorientation towards countries in the Global South helps it protect its national interests.

💬 Sumbula Sultanova, Executive Secretary of the Russian-Iranian Business Council, described the Iranian "resistance economy" as a well-coordinated mechanism aimed at maximising the use of internal resources - human, financial and natural - as well as resisting external pressure by creating reserves of necessary goods. Counteracting the sanctions regime falls under the jurisdiction of state institutions. “The timely adjustment of the economy by the state allows Iran to stay afloat again and again,” Sultanova said.

💬 Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Senior Researcher and Head of the Eastern Cultural Centre at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the development of the Iranian economy can be called relatively successful. In her opinion, banking plays a key role in overcoming sanctions. She puts the oil industry in second place. Another important point, according to Ravandi-Fadai, is the development of relations with neighbours, both those under sanctions and those not under sanctions. In addition, she believes it is necessary to take into account the influence of domestic policy, including the creation of free economic zones.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/how-to-fight-sanctions-the-iranian-experience/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #valdai_report #Iran #sanctions

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⛔️ On July 22, Hungary, already holding the EU presidency, together with the other 26 member states of the bloc, unanimously extended the sectoral sanctions against Russia until January 31, 2025,  and also supported all other decisions of the EU Council on sanctions against Russia. 

But if Trump wins the election and after his inauguration cancels Biden’s Order 14024, Hungary may quite openly follow the same path and vote against another extension of one of the anti-Russian sanctions packages.

Sergey Glandin addresses the issue of legal tools for lifting or easing anti-Russian sanctions available to the US President and Viktor Orban, who will chair the European Council until the end of 2024.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/if-trump-returns-to-the-white-house/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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⛔️ Why do countries that initiate sanctions reduce them? How long-term and sustainable is such a process?

Too often sanctions drag on for years or decades. This makes the experience of China, which managed to lift most US sanctions, even more interesting. The process has dragged on for more than a quarter of a century, and in recent years, Washington has once again increased pressure on Beijing.

However, China’s example helps shed light on the possible motives for easing sanctions or lifting them that the US has been guided by and may be guided by in the future. Three such motives can be identified.

1️⃣ The first is to reduce sanctions in order to get closer to the target country in the interest of breaking up coalitions with its participation or containing a more significant rival.

2️⃣ The second is to obtain economic advantages in the event of favourable political opportunities.

3️⃣ The third is an attempt to “socialise” the target country, to integrate it into the system of bilateral and multilateral relations in order to create an economic foundation for political dialogue.

Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, writes on these motives in the context of US-Chinese relations.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/lifting-sanctions-the-chinese-option/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #China #sanctions

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