🇷🇺🌏 So far, Moscow’s policy in its immediate circle is showing signs of such adaptability to inevitably changing conditions.

However, in order for this not to become just a form of retreat, which is delicate for our own pride, we have to solve several more important problems.

1️⃣ First, Russia will be faced with the question of how to find a relatively optimal combination of adaptability to changes that occur against our will, and consistent firmness where the problem is truly of fundamental importance.

2️⃣ Second, the general crisis of international institutions will inevitably force us to answer difficult questions in the case of those organisations whose condition now looks quite good. The aforementioned SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union or the CSTO — all of these organisations differ in their nature from Western institutions, which are built on the “leader — tribe” model. However, we still have no way of gauging the viability of organisations within which there is no strict disciplinary principle in the form of a patron power.

3️⃣ Finally, we do not yet know very well how to interact with medium- and small-sized neighbours when they find themselves in a crisis. So far, Greater Eurasia is a region with relatively established states capable of conducting responsible foreign policy. However, we must not forget that many of them in the coming years may face serious internal challenges.

In the coming years, Russia’s policy in the Eurasian space will most likely be aimed at avoiding excessive obligations, but at the same time strengthening relations with those countries that are really interested in cooperating with Moscow, as well as strengthening the influence of broad international institutions, particularly the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Such a strategy will have to meet Russia’s most important goals, which are internal in nature and consist of maintaining social stability, social harmony and economic growth, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/mideast-crisis/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #Russia #MiddleEast

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🌏 The breakup of the Soviet Union in December 1991 was a big strategic shock that led to the fragmentation of a superpower into 15 hapless countries.

This ‘Black Swan’ event consequentially bolstered the ‘Pax Americana’, marked by an era of Uncle Sam’s unilateralism and pre-emption in world affairs. US assurances to dismantle NATO and facilitate Russia’s accommodation into Europe’s economic and security architecture remained mere lip service. Quite to the contrary, it began a new Cold War, which was manifest in the rapid eastern expansion of NATO and the European Union to amalgamate the Former Soviet Union States (FSUS) into the Western alliance’s ecosystem.

Foreign-backed ‘Colour Revolutions’ along Russia’s periphery and the abrogation of agreements such as the ABM, INF and ‘Eyes in the Sky’ treaties heightened Russia’s threat perception and deepened strategic mistrust between Russia and the US. The post-Soviet space has become an arena of big power contests.

New Delhi will navigate a polarised world through its multi-vector engagement, championing the cause of the Global South and seeking reforms in the UN Security Council and other international institutions, writes Major General (Ret.) B.K. Sharma, Director of the United Services Institution (India).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/evolving-geopolitical-dynamics/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #India #WorldOrder

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🛤️ Among the six main land routes, three pass through different regions of Eurasia, clearly indicating the role and place of Eurasia in this transit and transportation megaproject. 

The 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held between October 17 and 18 in Beijing, China. It marked the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

What were the results of the Belt and Road Initiative Summit for transport connectivity in Eurasia? In answering this question, the following key points are important.

1️⃣ First, the conflict in Ukraine, extensive Western sanctions against Russia and transit restrictions splitting Russia from the eastern European Union have had a direct and negative impact on the Northern Corridor of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

2️⃣ The second result of the 3rd Belt and Road Forum will be the strengthening of land and rail routes between China and Russia. Although China's transit and trade route to Europe is blocked from Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine, the volume of bilateral trade and transit between Russia and China has increased significantly.

3️⃣ The third result of the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation will be China's investment in infrastructure and new transport and transit technology in Eurasia.

4️⃣ Finally, China's major challenge in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative in Eurasia will be coordinating and combining the goals and interests of this initiative with The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and also the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS.

China should be expected to be much more conservative and cautious in lending and investing during the second decade of the Belt and Road Initiative, writes Vali Kaleji.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/results-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-summit-for/

#ModernDiplomacy #China #Eurasia #BeltAndRoad

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🗣 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣3️⃣ The year 2023 has shown that Greater Eurasia and Asia are, so far, resistant to negative external influences, which have had the most dramatic consequences in Europe and the Middle East.

There are no opposing military-political alliances in Asia and Eurasia, and the so-called “geopolitical fault lines” only exist in the imagination of especially impressible readers of American newspapers. This is due to peculiarities of the political culture there, but also to the general trends of international life at the present stage.

1️⃣ First, despite the fact that this macroregion has its own experience of severe interstate confrontation, turning to violent conflict as the go-to means of achieving goals is not a central part of the foreign policy culture here.

In other words, when the peoples of the West take arms and see conflict as the solution to difficult situations, the peaceful resolution of disputes is preferable for Asia and Eurasia.

2️⃣ Second, the associations of states emerging in Asia and Eurasia are not aimed at achieving aggressive goals in relation to third countries. They are primarily aimed at implementing the development goals of their members and maintaining their internal stability. Therefore, now in Asia and Eurasia there are no unions created to ensure a privileged position for their members in relation to the rest of the macroregion.

3️⃣ Third, within the macroregion there are no relatively large states that would act as “agents” of extra-regional actors. The only countries that may be an exception in this sense are Japan and South Korea.

Asia and Eurasia remain a space of cooperation, not competition, and the leading regional powers are able to achieve terms that would be comparatively fair for their smaller partners, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/asia-and-eurasia-in-2023-shaping-a-new-internation/

#valdai_year2023 #Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #Asia

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🇷🇺🌏 It is now extremely important for Russia to build a strategy in Eurasia and beyond, regardless of how quickly the goals of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine are achieved, as well as the general objectives in the field of European security formulated officially at the end of 2021. 

Russia's Greater Eurasia’s strategy is formed under the influence of several basic factors.

1️⃣ First, it cannot develop in isolation from how Moscow sees a new, fairer international order. It is based on respect for international law and the sovereign equality of states, and does not allow exclusive opportunities for one state or group. Greater Eurasia, due to its geopolitical position, is the strongest material foundation of this order, since the states located there naturally consider the security of their neighbours as part of their own.

2️⃣ Second, cooperation in Greater Eurasia inevitably relies on the global structures of the new international order, among which the central place is occupied by BRICS, the expansion of which has become the most important international event of 2023. During its chairmanship of the group, Russia will have to consider, as a whole, issues related to the development of BRICS and the strengthening of international cooperation in Greater Eurasia.

3️⃣ Third, the movement of Greater Eurasia towards more intense internal integrity cannot and will never be able to be carried out within the framework of the leadership model characteristic of all international institutions of the past. In Greater Eurasia, three of the four most important powers of the modern world are located – Russia, India and China, each of which balances the others, which is a guarantee against the formation of an unequal model of relations.

4️⃣ Finally, painstaking work on the practical “interconnection” of different forms of institutional and informal interaction between the countries of the region will remain important for Russian policy in Greater Eurasia. The process of cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and China, which is promoting the Belt and Road initiative, still continues, the SCO agenda is becoming more diverse, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation is occupying its unique niche. The task that will inevitably be present in the activities of Russian diplomacy is the “conjugation” of their national interests and the dynamics of the development of structured forms of international cooperation in a huge region.

It is important for Russian foreign policy to be adaptive and able to benefit not only itself, but also the future of Eurasia, as a space of equal strategic cooperation between sovereign states, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-greater-eurasia-and-modern-international/

#WiderEurasia #Eurasia #WorldOrder #GreaterEurasia #WorldMajority

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🧊 The Arctic is becoming one of the centres of international relations due to the dynamic changes taking place in the region.

The Arctic region has long been a subject of interest, primarily among the eight Arctic states — the United States of America, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Finland and Sweden. However, in recent years, non-Arctic states, primarily India and China, have increasingly been paying attention to this region.

The Arctic region is so attractive because it has significant oil and gas reserves, estimated at up to 90 billion barrels of oil and 1.7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. These resources are becoming increasingly important as global energy demand increases. In addition to oil and gas, the Arctic also provides opportunities for infrastructure development, mining and tourism.

The region has an extensive transport network, including one of the most promising shipping routes — the Northern Sea Route, which is currently actively developing. As the Arctic ice melts, it is attracting the attention of an increasing number of international actors. As a result, the diversification of international logistics is leading to the construction of new ports and pipelines, and the region’s mineral resources, including rare earth metals and diamonds, are opening up opportunities for investment in the mining industry.

The Arctic and Eurasia are closely interconnected, since, on the one hand, the key participants in international interaction in the Arctic region historically have been countries geographically located on the Eurasian continent, and, on the other hand, the Arctic itself is of great importance for ensuring the security and well-being of the Eurasian powers, Irina Strelnikova writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-eurasian-aspect-of-arctic-cooperation/

#GreaterEurasia #Eurasia #Arctic

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On April 17 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the EAEU as the core component of the Greater Eurasian Partnership.

In recent years, the process of Eurasian economic integration has emerged as an essential tool for member states to achieve their national development objectives, strengthen good-neighborly relations, and promote mutual market openness among their economies.

Amidst the backdrop of significant changes and turmoil in the global market and geopolitical landscape, caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing military-political standoff between Russia and Western countries, the mechanisms and principles of the EAEU have proven instrumental in facilitating the interaction of member states with the global economic system, as well as in simplifying connections among them and promoting economic growth.

The growth rates in certain EAEU member states, such as Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, are particularly noteworthy. The institutions and regulatory frameworks of the union contribute to the increase in mutual trade between participating countries and their engagement with external partners.

❓What should be the next steps towards increasing the mutual openness of EAEU memberstates?
❓What are some promising new directions and areas for integration?
❓How should the union’s development strategy take into account global shifts?

These and other questions will be addressed by the discussion participants.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Georgy Arzumanyan, Deputy Director of the EEC Industrial Policy Department

🇰🇿 Rakhim Oshakbaev, Director of the TALAP Center for Applied Research (Kazakhstan)

🇷🇺 Dmitriy Prokhorenko, Foreign network overseas Director, Russian Export Center

🇰🇬 Kubatbek Rakhimov, Executive Director of the Applicata — Center for Strategic Solutions (Kyrgyzstan)

Moderator:

🗣 Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-eaeu-as-the-core-of-the-greater-eurasian-partnership/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: Dear journalists, to be accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website. If you have any questions about the event, call +79269307763. 

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

#WiderEurasia #EAEU #Eurasia

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⏰ TODAY at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the EAEU as the core component of the Greater Eurasian Partnership.

❓What should be the next steps towards increasing the mutual openness of EAEU memberstates?
❓What are some promising new directions and areas for integration?
❓How should the union’s development strategy take into account global shifts?

These and other questions will be addressed by the discussion participants.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

#WiderEurasia #EAEU #Eurasia

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the EAEU as the core component of the Greater Eurasian Partnership.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239184

#WiderEurasia #EAEU #Eurasia

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🌏 Eurasian Integration in New Realities

On April 17, 2024, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion dedicated to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as the core of the Greater Eurasian Partnership. The discussion was moderated by Timofei Bordachev.

💬 Georgy Arzumanyan, Deputy Director of the Industrial Policy Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) emphasised that in spite of today's unfavourable and uncertain economic conditions, the EAEU has proven its worth and effectiveness. A stable integration infrastructure has been formed with significant potential for further development. Speaking about industry as the main driver of economic development, Arzumanyan pointed out that in the real sector, there is now a “reboot” of global technology markets, as well as the relocalisation of production and logistics redistribution. Against this background, many states have moved “to the track of self-sufficiency”. This leads to the need to rethink the industrial policy of the EAEU.

💬 Rakhim Oshakbaev, Director of the TALAP Centre for Applied Research, noted that the prospects for Eurasian integration largely depend on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s future relations with Western countries and the world at large. “Our economic integration can hardly be far from the general political contour,” he added. Oshakbaev agreed with the opinion of those experts who believe that Kazakhstan, despite its initial role as one of the initiators of the integration process, is now generally impeding its development and is not inclined to support “the serious development and implementation of any integration documents.” In his opinion, this is due to the fact that, given the difficult economic situation in Kazakhstan, falling under secondary sanctions could become a “perfect storm” for the country.

💬 “Russian exports exist, have existed and will exist,” said Dmitry Prokhorenko, Foreign Network Overseas Director of the Russian Export Centre, who spoke about Russia’s foreign economic activity in the context of Eurasian integration and about building bilateral chains of interaction with the EAEU countries and partner countries of the union. According to Prokhorenko, the Russian Export Centre actively promotes and supports Russian companies in friendly markets. The centre has opened representative offices in all EAEU countries and many CIS countries. It actively uses the tools of the special economic zones of the EAEU countries to create new production chains aimed at exporting to third countries and supplying components to assembly plants in Russia.

💬 “First and foremost, there should be self-regulating organisations among our countries and business associations. Then and only then we will be able to develop viable designs,” said Kubatbek Rakhimov, Executive Director of the Applicata-Centre for Strategic Solutions. He considers bureaucracy and slow “evolutionary” development as the main danger facing the EAEU, which does not take into account the latest changes in the world and the new realities of moving away from globalisation towards new, integrated economic blocs. Rakhimov announced the need to reform the Eurasian Economic Commission with the introduction of the Eurasian commissioner’s institution to resolve cross-sectoral issues and fill gaps not filled by the classical ministerial structures. In addition, according to him, the issue of the Eurasian Development Bank has not been resolved. The EDB should be an element within the EAEU; its interaction with the EEC is necessary.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/eurasian-integration-in-new-realities/

#WiderEurasia #EAEU #Eurasia

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🌏 Speaking at the Russian Foreign Ministry on June 14, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed the key principles of the security architecture of Eurasia. The idea itself was voiced in the president’s message to the Federal Assembly on February 29. It is highly likely that it will become one of the supporting structures of the new Russian vision of security on the continent.

The principles revealed by the president indicate that Eurasian security will be understood comprehensively. It implies not only military-political issues, but also other areas.

First of all, we are talking about economics. Economic security issues were explicitly identified as a separate dimension and include a wide range of issues - from poverty and inequality to climate and the environment.

However, the further reference of the president’s speech to the policy of sanctions and the reliability of deposits in the debt obligations of Western states suggests that the key aspect of the economic dimension of Eurasian security architecture may be precisely the question of using the economy as a weapon; to protect against its use for political purposes.

The Eurasian economic security system can become a flexible and decentralised set of mechanisms that reduce “dependence on interdependence,” giving rise to a new reality of international economic relations, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/eurasia-s-security-system-the-economic-aspect/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Eurasia #security #economy

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