๐๐ช๐ We are probably at the starting point of an unfolding crisis, and not close to its end.
A point of balance has not yet been found in the ongoing military campaign. However, it has its own options for development:
1๏ธโฃ In the first scenario, the current Ukrainian government and Russia enter into an agreement that takes into account Russian demands, and these agreements are recognised by the West as part of a European security package deal. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis would give way to a Russian-Western military-political confrontation, akin to the Cold War.
2๏ธโฃ The second scenario assumes the development of events under the influence of the military situation on the ground. As a result, either a balance is inevitably found, or one of the parties prevails. In this case, there are risks that the West will not recognise the results of the deal, and a new Ukrainian government will arise, and be opposed by the government in exile. From the West, there will be a system of support for the Ukrainian underground, similar to the one that existed in the west of Ukraine in the 1950s.
3๏ธโฃ The third scenario involves a sharp escalation of tension between Russia and the West. It is possible that the crisis will spread to the NATO countries or the escalation of the sanctions war against Russia follows in the hope of shaking the foundations of the Russian statehood. In this case, the risks of a nuclear collision will increase. However, so far, we see that Western leaders are distancing themselves from such plans and saying that they will not send NATO forces to this conflict.
Nevertheless, we have repeatedly seen how the West crosses its own โred linesโ โ it can really happen again, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.
๐ Strategic Foundations of the Ukrainian Crisis
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #WorldOrder
@valdai_club โ The Valdai Discussion Club
A point of balance has not yet been found in the ongoing military campaign. However, it has its own options for development:
1๏ธโฃ In the first scenario, the current Ukrainian government and Russia enter into an agreement that takes into account Russian demands, and these agreements are recognised by the West as part of a European security package deal. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis would give way to a Russian-Western military-political confrontation, akin to the Cold War.
2๏ธโฃ The second scenario assumes the development of events under the influence of the military situation on the ground. As a result, either a balance is inevitably found, or one of the parties prevails. In this case, there are risks that the West will not recognise the results of the deal, and a new Ukrainian government will arise, and be opposed by the government in exile. From the West, there will be a system of support for the Ukrainian underground, similar to the one that existed in the west of Ukraine in the 1950s.
3๏ธโฃ The third scenario involves a sharp escalation of tension between Russia and the West. It is possible that the crisis will spread to the NATO countries or the escalation of the sanctions war against Russia follows in the hope of shaking the foundations of the Russian statehood. In this case, the risks of a nuclear collision will increase. However, so far, we see that Western leaders are distancing themselves from such plans and saying that they will not send NATO forces to this conflict.
Nevertheless, we have repeatedly seen how the West crosses its own โred linesโ โ it can really happen again, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.
๐ Strategic Foundations of the Ukrainian Crisis
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #WorldOrder
@valdai_club โ The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Strategic Foundations of the Ukrainian Crisis
We are probably at the starting point of an unfolding crisis, and not close to its end, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.
โ๏ธ๐ This in turn helps us define what the left should be, which is actually the intention of its founders: an alliance between the working and poor people of all countries, based on the common needs of all humanity, not just one privileged part of it, and least of all on the racial fantasy that any one part of humanity is born superior to another.
Such a left, in the Western World, hardly exists. It has rotted from within under the Hubristic delusion that so-called โWestern Civilizationโ entitles it to tell everyone else what to do.
Peace calls for a global left, that truly represents the working and poor people of the whole world, recognises all of them as genuine equals, and places their common rights, and their common needs, above those of property-owners and their profits.
Such a left is the only path to peace, Valdai Club expert Alan Freeman writes.
#Norms_and_Values #NATO #Ukraine
@valdai_club
Such a left, in the Western World, hardly exists. It has rotted from within under the Hubristic delusion that so-called โWestern Civilizationโ entitles it to tell everyone else what to do.
Peace calls for a global left, that truly represents the working and poor people of the whole world, recognises all of them as genuine equals, and places their common rights, and their common needs, above those of property-owners and their profits.
Such a left is the only path to peace, Valdai Club expert Alan Freeman writes.
#Norms_and_Values #NATO #Ukraine
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
NATO, the Left, and the Path to Peace
๏ปฟIf anyone tries to justify a monstrous and unnecessary human sacrifice on the grounds that itโs for the best, then they are measuring โgoodโ in dollars instead of bodies, and theyโre not part of the left, because the left stands for humans, not propertyโฆ
๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ฆ๐ช๐บ US President Joe Biden recently admitted that the conflict over Ukraine will become protracted, making it a kind of competition of wills between Russia and Europe.
The conflict is really turning into a duel of endurance potentials: there is a determination on the Russian side to see things through to the end, there are no doubts about Ukraineโs determination to wage war, despite the large number of losses and the growing tension in society.
The negotiating line that Russia came up with in March can be seen as a big win for Kiev: recognition of the Donbass republics and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, removal of nationalists from government and law enforcement agencies, military neutrality of the country and demilitarisation.
Russia will no longer return to the negotiating table with the same proposal; Russiaโs next offer will be developed from other positions. Of course, it will take shape as a result of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.
However, the Russian position will also be formed with an eye to the social processes in the West: now there is no certainty that Ukraine will remain in its list of priorities over the long term. Already now in the West, fatigue from the bloody hostilities ripens.
Until the last Soviet cartridge is fired in Kievโs arsenal, until the mistakes of the command give rise to a cascade of tactical defeats at the front, and as long as their Western sponsors support them with weapons, Ukraine will fight, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine
@valdai_club
The conflict is really turning into a duel of endurance potentials: there is a determination on the Russian side to see things through to the end, there are no doubts about Ukraineโs determination to wage war, despite the large number of losses and the growing tension in society.
The negotiating line that Russia came up with in March can be seen as a big win for Kiev: recognition of the Donbass republics and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, removal of nationalists from government and law enforcement agencies, military neutrality of the country and demilitarisation.
Russia will no longer return to the negotiating table with the same proposal; Russiaโs next offer will be developed from other positions. Of course, it will take shape as a result of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.
However, the Russian position will also be formed with an eye to the social processes in the West: now there is no certainty that Ukraine will remain in its list of priorities over the long term. Already now in the West, fatigue from the bloody hostilities ripens.
Until the last Soviet cartridge is fired in Kievโs arsenal, until the mistakes of the command give rise to a cascade of tactical defeats at the front, and as long as their Western sponsors support them with weapons, Ukraine will fight, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Legitimation of War and Ukraineโs Potential for Endurance
Zelensky is fully invested in the โwarring Ukraineโ project, and today he personifies the party of war. However, being the president of war and a president of peace are completely different modalities, between which it is often impossible to move, writesโฆ
๐๐บ๐ฆ๐ท๐บ Many African nations refrain from condemning Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis.
They are taking a more independent stance because of their histories of imperialist control and ties with the USSR and the Russian Federation.
Numerous African governments and mass organizations refused to side with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its efforts to encircle Russia in order to leave it as a diminished state dependent upon the dominant imperialist nations globally.
Attitudes towards US military policy among Africans reveals the unsustainability of this approach to international affairs. These peoples know that the reckless approach by Washington and Wall Street will have a negative social impact on billions around the globe, writes Abayomi Azikiwe, Editor and Publisher of the Pan-African News Wire.
#Norms_and_Values #Africa #Ukraine
@valdai_club
They are taking a more independent stance because of their histories of imperialist control and ties with the USSR and the Russian Federation.
Numerous African governments and mass organizations refused to side with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its efforts to encircle Russia in order to leave it as a diminished state dependent upon the dominant imperialist nations globally.
Attitudes towards US military policy among Africans reveals the unsustainability of this approach to international affairs. These peoples know that the reckless approach by Washington and Wall Street will have a negative social impact on billions around the globe, writes Abayomi Azikiwe, Editor and Publisher of the Pan-African News Wire.
#Norms_and_Values #Africa #Ukraine
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Reactions in Africa to the Ukrainian Crisis
Many African nations refrain from condemning Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis. They are taking a more independent stance because of their histories of imperialist control and ties with the USSR and the Russian Federation. Since the post-World War II periodโฆ
๐โ๏ธ๐ Most analysts in the West have developed a special kind of moral blindness, which is rooted in the feeling of being chosen; the ideological, moral superiority of the Western model of development.
They believe that they are advancing at a high speed along the path of progress, that there is a right side of history, and that the movement along it justifies the means by which this progress is achieved. They value civilian deaths quite differently depending on which side they represent. This is a special type of hypocrisy โ to divide people into those who are on the right side of history and who are on the wrong side of history.
At the initial stage of the current phase of the crisis in the West, analysts began to play the role of activists and rhetorically exclaim: โhow is that?โ, โno warโ, and โwe are for peace.โ For them, there is only one participant in the conflict worthy of support โ Ukraine, which is on the right side of history. Accordingly, its missile attacks on Donbass and Russian territory are righteous. There was not a single sympathetic statement in the West regarding the murder of pro-Russian citizens in Odessa on May 2, 2014.
The tacit acceptance of a consistent defeat of the rights of Russians in Ukraine is completely unacceptable for Russia, and Western experts will not find understanding in Moscow until they stop looking at the problem selectively, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #West
@valdai_club
They believe that they are advancing at a high speed along the path of progress, that there is a right side of history, and that the movement along it justifies the means by which this progress is achieved. They value civilian deaths quite differently depending on which side they represent. This is a special type of hypocrisy โ to divide people into those who are on the right side of history and who are on the wrong side of history.
At the initial stage of the current phase of the crisis in the West, analysts began to play the role of activists and rhetorically exclaim: โhow is that?โ, โno warโ, and โwe are for peace.โ For them, there is only one participant in the conflict worthy of support โ Ukraine, which is on the right side of history. Accordingly, its missile attacks on Donbass and Russian territory are righteous. There was not a single sympathetic statement in the West regarding the murder of pro-Russian citizens in Odessa on May 2, 2014.
The tacit acceptance of a consistent defeat of the rights of Russians in Ukraine is completely unacceptable for Russia, and Western experts will not find understanding in Moscow until they stop looking at the problem selectively, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #West
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Blind Spots of the Moral Position of the West in the Ukrainian Crisis
Most analysts in the West have developed a special kind of moral blindness, which is rooted in the feeling of being chosen; the ideological, moral superiority of the Western model of development.
๐ Probably only Russia among the classical European powers retained its diplomatic tradition.
Thanks to a strong school of diplomacy and a developed institutional environment for cultivating professional experience, Russian diplomats develop the ability to see the world pragmatically, and without ideological lenses, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-do-the-political-elites-of-ukraine/
#ModernDiplomacy #Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine
@valdaiclub
Thanks to a strong school of diplomacy and a developed institutional environment for cultivating professional experience, Russian diplomats develop the ability to see the world pragmatically, and without ideological lenses, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-do-the-political-elites-of-ukraine/
#ModernDiplomacy #Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine
@valdaiclub
Valdai Club
What Do Political Elites of Ukraine and the West Think โ Is There Any Room for Dialogue?
Probably only Russia among the classical European powers retained its diplomatic tradition. Thanks to a strong school of diplomacy and a developed institutional environment for cultivating professional experience, Russian diplomats develop the ability toโฆ
๐ช The unprecedented hardships of the real war that Ukraine is now facing could be significantly less if the government of Vladimir Zelensky showed it was ready to pursue a diplomatic settlement of the crisis.
Russia has repeatedly come up with diplomatic initiatives to resolve this conflict.
For example, at its first stage, such negotiations took place in Belarus and, later, in Turkey. However, under the influence of the United States and Britain, the government of Zelensky took a course of prolonging the conflict, counting on the fact that military assistance from the West would allow Ukraine to achieve its goals during this crisis.
It is unlikely that Zelensky is counting on a military victory for his country. For this, Ukraine does not have its own military-economic resources, and the funds provided by the West will never be sufficient to inflict a final defeat on Russia.
Probably, the calculation of the president of Ukraine is based on offering Ukraine as a tool for the West in the fight against Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-does-zelensky-need-a-long-conflict-with-russia/
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine
@valdai_club
Russia has repeatedly come up with diplomatic initiatives to resolve this conflict.
For example, at its first stage, such negotiations took place in Belarus and, later, in Turkey. However, under the influence of the United States and Britain, the government of Zelensky took a course of prolonging the conflict, counting on the fact that military assistance from the West would allow Ukraine to achieve its goals during this crisis.
It is unlikely that Zelensky is counting on a military victory for his country. For this, Ukraine does not have its own military-economic resources, and the funds provided by the West will never be sufficient to inflict a final defeat on Russia.
Probably, the calculation of the president of Ukraine is based on offering Ukraine as a tool for the West in the fight against Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-does-zelensky-need-a-long-conflict-with-russia/
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Why Does Zelensky Need a Long Conflict With Russia?
It is unlikely that Zelensky is counting on a military victory for his country. For this, Ukraine does not have its own military-economic resources, and the funds provided by the West will never be sufficient to inflict a final defeat on Russia. Probablyโฆ
๐ช๐ The conflict in Ukraine has become central to world discourse.
The sharing of real or fake photos and videos on social media has become a hallmark of press attention, making the boundaries between fact and fiction increasingly indiscernible. Over the course of this year of conflict, it became clear that anything goes when it comes to advancing a particular narrative, from video game images to the famous myth of the โghost of Kievโ.
In fact, the spectacularization of this conflict has reached levels that are unprecedented in recent history. This not only keeps Western audiences entertained daily but also fuels the NATO war machine and its voyeuristic desires with the tragedy of others.
In the face of this debate, peace negotiations have been replaced by an external verdict to the parties involved in the conflict: Russia must lose at all costs. Throughout this one year, the factor of time has been manipulated both chronologically and ideationally to achieve this goal. In the chronology of events, the mainstream narrative about the conflict asserts that Russia is losing because it failed to conquer the second largest country in Europe in a month. The imagined verdict by the West is that Putin had and has this ambition. Even if that were the case, little is said about the consequences if the Kremlin had actually pursued a strategy of total control of Ukrainian territory in a few weeks. Such a presumption may be formulated from a self-expectation of mimicking the Western modus operandi in previous conflicts.
The NATO war in Ukraine against Russia has been prolonged and intensified, as increasing hostilities. If we understand violence as the acceleration of time, the longer the conflict lasts, the greater its consequences will be, writes Valdai Club expert Boris Perius Zabolotsky.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-a-matter-of-time/
#Norms_and_Values #Ukraine
๐ฃ ๐ฃ ๐ฃ
The sharing of real or fake photos and videos on social media has become a hallmark of press attention, making the boundaries between fact and fiction increasingly indiscernible. Over the course of this year of conflict, it became clear that anything goes when it comes to advancing a particular narrative, from video game images to the famous myth of the โghost of Kievโ.
In fact, the spectacularization of this conflict has reached levels that are unprecedented in recent history. This not only keeps Western audiences entertained daily but also fuels the NATO war machine and its voyeuristic desires with the tragedy of others.
In the face of this debate, peace negotiations have been replaced by an external verdict to the parties involved in the conflict: Russia must lose at all costs. Throughout this one year, the factor of time has been manipulated both chronologically and ideationally to achieve this goal. In the chronology of events, the mainstream narrative about the conflict asserts that Russia is losing because it failed to conquer the second largest country in Europe in a month. The imagined verdict by the West is that Putin had and has this ambition. Even if that were the case, little is said about the consequences if the Kremlin had actually pursued a strategy of total control of Ukrainian territory in a few weeks. Such a presumption may be formulated from a self-expectation of mimicking the Western modus operandi in previous conflicts.
The NATO war in Ukraine against Russia has been prolonged and intensified, as increasing hostilities. If we understand violence as the acceleration of time, the longer the conflict lasts, the greater its consequences will be, writes Valdai Club expert Boris Perius Zabolotsky.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-a-matter-of-time/
#Norms_and_Values #Ukraine
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Valdai Club
Ukraine: A Matter of Time?
The NATO war in Ukraine against Russia has been prolonged and intensified, as increasing hostilities. If we understand violence as the acceleration of time, the longer the conflict lasts, the greater its consequences will be, writes Valdai Club expert Borisโฆ
โ๏ธ Would the Ukraine crisis be limited to Ukraineโs territory?
Russia is fully cognizant that currently the American bureaucratic procedures governing the allocation of resources essential for sustaining Ukraine are duly reflected in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, implying that the conflict is unlikely to conclude within this timeframe.
Both the US Congress and the White House exhibit a shared comprehension and alignment in their objective to achieve โvictory over Russiaโ on the battlefield. This institutional consolidation renders the United States a formidable adversary in this conflict, particularly within the scope of the annual timeframe.
Nevertheless, our interlocutors seem to be struggling to fully grasp the notion that Russia possesses invincible military capabilities. Russia has unequivocally conveyed its commitment to pursue its goals through any means necessary, even if it involves prolonged military action. Given such circumstances, negotiations would have been a more rational approach to dealing with Russia.
Understanding the significance of Ukraine to Russia and recognising the necessity of engaging in dialogue to address the matter would have been prudent. Russia will achieve its goals anyway.
Societies appear fatigued by the prolonged crisis, but this exhaustion has not yet led to significant shifts in public opinion among the European countries.
The Ukraine crisis would be limited to the territory of Ukraine only if no armed forces of NATO countries would enter the frontline, writes Valdai Club Program Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/would-the-ukraine-crisis-be-limited-to-ukraine/
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis
๐ฃ ๐ฃ ๐ฃ
Russia is fully cognizant that currently the American bureaucratic procedures governing the allocation of resources essential for sustaining Ukraine are duly reflected in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, implying that the conflict is unlikely to conclude within this timeframe.
Both the US Congress and the White House exhibit a shared comprehension and alignment in their objective to achieve โvictory over Russiaโ on the battlefield. This institutional consolidation renders the United States a formidable adversary in this conflict, particularly within the scope of the annual timeframe.
Nevertheless, our interlocutors seem to be struggling to fully grasp the notion that Russia possesses invincible military capabilities. Russia has unequivocally conveyed its commitment to pursue its goals through any means necessary, even if it involves prolonged military action. Given such circumstances, negotiations would have been a more rational approach to dealing with Russia.
Understanding the significance of Ukraine to Russia and recognising the necessity of engaging in dialogue to address the matter would have been prudent. Russia will achieve its goals anyway.
Societies appear fatigued by the prolonged crisis, but this exhaustion has not yet led to significant shifts in public opinion among the European countries.
The Ukraine crisis would be limited to the territory of Ukraine only if no armed forces of NATO countries would enter the frontline, writes Valdai Club Program Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/would-the-ukraine-crisis-be-limited-to-ukraine/
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Valdai Club
Would The Ukraine Crisis be Limited to Ukraineโs Territory?
What are the prospects of the current ever-escalating crisis? While historical events are often characterised as continuous experiments, a resemblance can be observed between the Korean War and the ongoing crisis. The Korean War involved a significant deploymentโฆ