🇧🇾🇪🇺🇷🇺 The migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border is only the latest episode in the political conflict between Belarus and the European Union.

Earlier, Brussels approved the toughest sanctions against the republic’s economy in the history of their diplomatic relations:

❌ a ban on European business cooperating with Belarusian exporters of potash fertilizers (in terms of nomenclature items), oil products and tobacco, as well as banking sector companies

❌ restricted access to the European capital market, including a ban on the purchase of Belarusian securities with a maturity of more than 90 days

❌ a ban on European banks providing insurance services and loans to the Belarusian government and state bodies, including the suspension of lending through the European Investment Bank

❌ a ban on European air carriers flying through Belarus, and Belavia flights over the EU

❌ individual sanctions (more than 160 citizens of Belarus are included in the so-called “black lists”), mean a ban on visits to the EU, business interaction and the “freezing” of accounts in EU banks

The stability of the Belarusian economy is one of the key factors that will influence the dynamics of the crisis, which creates risks for Russian interests.

Real economic integration with Russia is necessary to maintain social and economic stability in Belarus, writes Valdai Club expert Vyacheslav Sutyrin.

🔗 Economy of Belarus: Between Western Sanctions and Union with Russia

#Belarus #economy #sanctions #EU #Europe

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌍 Africa remains practically the only hotbed of positive demographic dynamics in the world.

With such demographic prospects, the continent's population will practically double over the next three decades - from 1.3 billion now to almost 2.5 billion by 2050 (meanwhile, the population of developed countries will remain virtually the same).

What does it mean for businesses and potential exporters? The fact is that when they go to Africa, they go to expanding markets, which in thirty years will be twice as large as they are now.

The population will be twice as large, and will need more roads, power plants, food, electronics, cars, clothing, etc. Moreover, the middle class in Africa will grow at a much faster rate than the demographic increase would otherwise dictate. By 2050, it will at least triple.

Africa's advantages as a platform for Russian foreign economic expansion are not limited to demographic factors. The developed markets of the OECD countries, especially the European Union, are highly regulated, which creates the highest barriers for exporting companies from Russia. Although tariff barriers are limited by WTO rules, the same European markets have a lot of non-tariff barriers. The regulatory environment in Africa is generally much more favourable, although of course it differs from country to country.

The third advantage of Africa is that the local market is experiencing a shortage of both high-tech companies and companies with a medium level of technology development.

Of course, the African market is not a panacea and one hundred percent recipe for the development of an effective industrial policy of Russia. This is just one of many directions in which the development of foreign economic activity of our country should proceed. However, to neglect its importance would be extremely short-sighted, just as it is short-sighted to neglect the future, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Zotin.

🔗 Where to Look for an Effective Industrial Policy, and Why Russia Needs Africa

#Corporations_and_Economy #economy #Africa

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🪙🌍 The economy of the Middle East has experienced two extreme turns in its history.

In the Middle Ages, this part of the world was more developed economically, scientifically and culturally than West. However, in the 17-19th centuries, the Middle East fell significantly behind the Western countries in development.

🎞 You can find out more about the economic development of the region in the 21st century in our videoinfographic.

ℹ️ The infographic has been prepared especially for the Middle East conference “Russia and the Middle East: Strategic Rapprochement and Interweaving of Interests”.

#MIDDLE_EAST2022 #MiddleEast #economy

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

⛔️ The sanctions consolidation of a group of “unfriendly” countries is largely a direct consequence of their high trade, investment and debt interdependence.

The high integration of developed markets among themselves, as well as their dependence on the United States, makes them feel that it is impossible to break the “vicious circle” and that they must be forced to follow a common historical fate and “collective” interests that dominate national ones, which spurs the process of “consolidation from above”.

At the same time, more than half of the G20 and the vast majority of the countries of the Global South are not ready to support the efforts of the US and Europe to isolate Russia.

The United States has released the “genie from the bottle” and now it is not known in which direction global sanctions may begin to develop.

If the United States uses its dominance in the global financial system and the dollar monopoly in the mechanism of secondary sanctions, then China uses its positions in global value chains. And this response, in the medium term, may turn out to be quite symmetrical, given the share of Chinese materials and components in global production, writes Valdai Club expert Ekaterina Arapova.

#EconomicStatecraft #economy #sanctions #complience

@valdai_club

🌾 Amid the current geopolitical and economic shocks, the global economy has entered a period of turbulence and structural transformation.

Since the beginning of 2022, the total cost of energy resources in the world has increased by almost 40%. The growth in the cost of raw agricultural materials reached 20% in May-June. Since then, prices have declined, but how sustainable this decline is remains a big question.

Current geopolitical divisions are causing global markets to stop functioning normally. Markets themselves have become fragmented, supply chains are more risky, and incentives to invest and expand production have weakened, writes Marsel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, for the 19th Annual Valdai Club Meeting.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/food-energy-security-and-global-markets/

#VALDAI2022 #economy

@valdaiclub

🛒 Despite the interconnectedness of the global economy, in many areas individual countries and even companies wield disproportionate weight. These can be very small countries and even separate territories. The most striking example is the semiconductor and grain markets.

Why these disproportions arise, what crises they can lead to, and most importantly, what are the ways to solve these problems you can find out from our videoinfographic.

📍 The infographic is prepared for the Valdai Club’s 19th Annual Meeting.

#VALDAI2022 #economy

@valdai_club

🌏 Asia’s growth remained in recovery mode in 2022, although the region will continue to outperform the rest of the world.

In addition to country- and region-specific factors, the IMF forecast reflects four concurrent global crosswinds: rising oil prices, monetary policies, and exchange rate divergence in the major economies, as well as shifting financial conditions and incremental growth.

Increasing conflicts between US and China as well as Russia and the West would have an impact on the recovery process, but these conflicts have also exposed the limitations of military structures and international institutions. In such a scenario, dialogue is the only way out. 

Importantly, the assurance of the US security to many of its allies is dwindling, including in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. One of the signals is Japan’s move to increase its defence budget to 2 percent of its GDP.

Russia’s role in parts of East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania needs to be reconfigured, as it has the potential to be a critical stakeholder, writes Pankaj Kumar Jha, Professor and Director of the Centre for Security Studies, OP Jindal Global University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/globalisation-in-asia-and-the-lingering-conflicts/

📌 This article was prepared for the Valdai Club’s 13th Asian Conference.

#ASIANVALDAI #Asia #economy

@valdai_club

🌏 As confrontation between the major countries grows, the world economy will undergo serious changes in the coming years.

On the one hand, to some extent, we are talking about growing regionalisation, in fact, a reduction of the transportation leg in foreign trade to reduce risks. Another factor is the desire to diversify partners, also to mitigate the increasing level of political risks. The economic factor will be less decisive amid the new conditions.

The global changes will affect the countries of Central Asia and Russia, in part, by contributing to the expansion of mutual trade and investment, writes Marsel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, for the Third Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-role-of-russia-and-central-asia-in-new-word/

#CentralAsianValdai #CentralAsia #economy

@valdai_club

📉 This is undoubtedly the first time in many years that the world economy has been threatened by three crises, each quite distinct in its origins, but whose consequences are intertwined.

A serious economic crisis, or the bursting of multilateralism, can very well lead to a new banking and financial crisis. The latter, in turn, will certainly aggravate the recessionary tendencies, and therefore the debt crisis, and the implosion of multilateralism. Certainly, the worst is not certain.

🏷️ The banking crisis is played out over a few days.

🏷️ The economic and debt crisis occurs over several months.

🏷️ The crisis of multilateralism can take several years.

However, what is new in today’s situation is the possible combination of these relatively short-term crises. This is the main risk, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/crises-ahead/

#EconomicStatecraft #economy #crisis

@valdai_club

💰 Economists believed that traditional cyclical policies could assume the role of structural policies.

Liberal Keynesianism has led many economists to focus attention short-term consequences, while underestimating the importance of the causes of the processes.

Suddenly inflation is back, forcing investors to wake up from a dream they thought would last much longer. The increase in debt leads to an increase in financial vulnerability. No state can infinitely increase the circulation of money without respecting the structural limits of money creation.

Inflation creates inequality among citizens who have a different ability to protect their purchasing power; differences between these abilities to protect themselves that distinguish freelancers and retirees, to cite two profoundly different social groups. This can generate extremist opposition and at the very least bring about the resurgence of terrorism that was thought to have been eradicated.

The inflation that has grown in the United States and, to a lesser extent, in Europe generates imbalances in the international financial order, setting the more developed countries against the rest of the world, and fosters inequality between states corresponding to the inequalities that are generated within states between citizens who have a different ability to protect their purchasing power.

Suddenly inflation is back, forcing investors to wake up from a dream they thought would last much longer. In the near future, this awakening risks leading to the bursting of speculative bubbles. Bubbles in real estate, money and finance, produced by speculation on commodities can explode when the ample liquidity runs out drastically, writes Valdai Club expert Dario Velo.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-return-of-inflation/

#Norms_and_Values #economy #inflation

@valdai_club