🐻🦅 The West has every reason to fear the "Russian rebellion."
The military conflict in Ukraine today is at the nerve of relations between Russia and the West, and largely sets the tone for security policy in the Euro-Atlantic region. It also has many global implications.
In the ideological sphere, it is increasingly presented as a struggle between the liberal world order and the “rebellion of the discontented”. It is Russia that today has assumed the role of the vanguard of such a rebellion, openly challenging its Western rivals.
The success of the “Russian rebellion” may become a prologue to much more systemic challenges. Therefore, the pacification of Russia for the West has become a task that clearly goes beyond the boundaries of the post-Soviet and even the Euro-Atlantic space, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis #WorldOrder
@valdai_club
The military conflict in Ukraine today is at the nerve of relations between Russia and the West, and largely sets the tone for security policy in the Euro-Atlantic region. It also has many global implications.
In the ideological sphere, it is increasingly presented as a struggle between the liberal world order and the “rebellion of the discontented”. It is Russia that today has assumed the role of the vanguard of such a rebellion, openly challenging its Western rivals.
The success of the “Russian rebellion” may become a prologue to much more systemic challenges. Therefore, the pacification of Russia for the West has become a task that clearly goes beyond the boundaries of the post-Soviet and even the Euro-Atlantic space, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis #WorldOrder
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
'Russian Rebellion': Local and Global Consequences
The military conflict in Ukraine today is at the nerve of relations between Russia and the West, and largely sets the tone for security policy in the Euro-Atlantic region. It also has many global implications. In the ideological sphere, it is increasingly…
🌏🌎 Some experts compare relations between Moscow and Kiev to those between the US and Cuba.
Cuba, on the one hand, sought to be at the forefront of the fight against world capitalism, and on the other hand, was closely woven into American socio-political life.
Nevertheless, there are factors that make the Russian-Ukrainian contradictions seem unlike the antagonistic relationship between Washington and Havana.
1️⃣ First, unlike Cuba, Ukraine began intensive militarisation and began to turn into a significant military player in Eastern Europe.
2️⃣ Second, in Ukraine there is an unresolved socio-cultural conflict between people with a pro-Russian identity and those who associate their worldview with the Western Ukrainian national idea. The position in power of the latter has predetermined the civil armed conflict with the East of the country.
Such a set of contradictions is rather comparable to the India-Pakistan dilemma; these nations have been at war for more than half a century over Jammu and Kashmir. Both countries emerged at the same time, when British India collapsed. For Pakistan, the emergence of statehood is directly related to opposition against India. Both states simultaneously created significant armed forces, which now include nuclear weapons. Pakistan began to build foreign policy ties with states hostile to India, trying to balance the threat emanating from Delhi.
Moscow perceived Ukraine as such an antagonist, realising that in a few years it could receive a substantial array of weaponry from NATO countries, which would be enough to cause disproportionate damage either to the Donbass region or to Russia itself.
Despite the fact that this conflict remains an armed confrontation between the two countries, it will affect the entire architecture of the world order and change the contours of Russia’s foreign policy strategy, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov. Russia and the NATO countries will now be adversaries in the spirit of the second half of the 1940s, the time of the emerging hard bipolarity, and Europe will lose its strategic autonomy.
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
Cuba, on the one hand, sought to be at the forefront of the fight against world capitalism, and on the other hand, was closely woven into American socio-political life.
Nevertheless, there are factors that make the Russian-Ukrainian contradictions seem unlike the antagonistic relationship between Washington and Havana.
1️⃣ First, unlike Cuba, Ukraine began intensive militarisation and began to turn into a significant military player in Eastern Europe.
2️⃣ Second, in Ukraine there is an unresolved socio-cultural conflict between people with a pro-Russian identity and those who associate their worldview with the Western Ukrainian national idea. The position in power of the latter has predetermined the civil armed conflict with the East of the country.
Such a set of contradictions is rather comparable to the India-Pakistan dilemma; these nations have been at war for more than half a century over Jammu and Kashmir. Both countries emerged at the same time, when British India collapsed. For Pakistan, the emergence of statehood is directly related to opposition against India. Both states simultaneously created significant armed forces, which now include nuclear weapons. Pakistan began to build foreign policy ties with states hostile to India, trying to balance the threat emanating from Delhi.
Moscow perceived Ukraine as such an antagonist, realising that in a few years it could receive a substantial array of weaponry from NATO countries, which would be enough to cause disproportionate damage either to the Donbass region or to Russia itself.
Despite the fact that this conflict remains an armed confrontation between the two countries, it will affect the entire architecture of the world order and change the contours of Russia’s foreign policy strategy, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov. Russia and the NATO countries will now be adversaries in the spirit of the second half of the 1940s, the time of the emerging hard bipolarity, and Europe will lose its strategic autonomy.
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Is Ukraine an Eastern European Cuba in Reverse?
Some experts compare relations between Moscow and Kiev to those between the US and Cuba. Cuba, on the one hand, sought to be at the forefront of the fight against world capitalism, and on the other hand, was closely woven into American socio-political life.…
🌎⚔️🌏 The circle of participants in the Ukrainian crisis includes six groups of players pursuing different political goals. They are:
▪️The United States
▪️The countries of the so-called “New Europe” (Britain, Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovakia)
▪️The countries of Western Europe (Italy, France, Germany)
▪️The union state of Russia and Belarus
▪️A group of Western countries, which we call “gateways” (Turkey and Hungary)
▪️Ukraine itself
In view of the “vacation from strategic thinking” taken by the elites of these countries several decades ago, they met the first weeks of the crisis with a lot of confusion.
As a result, the countries of Western Europe actually delegated goal-setting in the outbreak of the crisis to the United States, the countries of New Europe and Britain.
The autumn of 2022 allows us to sum up the efficiency of the strategy of each group of actors in the unfolding crisis.
🔹 The countries of “New Europe” have managed to get the United States actively immersed into European affairs. They have also achieved an internal political consolidation of their governments to embrace anti-Russian politics, which partially compensates for the dissatisfaction of the population over the fall in living standards. The failures of the “New Europe” include deep economic, social and migration crises — how they will compensate for it is not yet obvious.
🔹 The strategic successes of Western European countries are not obvious. Berlin, Paris, and Rome are facing unprecedented economic and energy crises, runaway inflation, and the risks of political destabilisation amid failed economic policies. These risks have been significantly exacerbated due to the fact that citizens actually pay for the prolongation of the crisis using their own money. There is a loss of initiative in “Old Europe” in the development of the crisis, which has been intercepted by the United States and “New Europe”.
🔹 The “gateway countries” — Hungary and Turkey — have acted more successfully. They have increased their autonomy from Washington and Brussels, and also offer themselves as platforms for diplomatic negotiations following the conflict, which enhances their international political weight. They didn’t pursue their course without risks: external pressure from the allies is increasing against them in order to “bring Ankara and Budapest back to the right line.”
Today we are witnessing a transition to the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis. The transition of the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West to 2023 seems highly probable, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #Europe
@valdai_club
▪️The United States
▪️The countries of the so-called “New Europe” (Britain, Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovakia)
▪️The countries of Western Europe (Italy, France, Germany)
▪️The union state of Russia and Belarus
▪️A group of Western countries, which we call “gateways” (Turkey and Hungary)
▪️Ukraine itself
In view of the “vacation from strategic thinking” taken by the elites of these countries several decades ago, they met the first weeks of the crisis with a lot of confusion.
As a result, the countries of Western Europe actually delegated goal-setting in the outbreak of the crisis to the United States, the countries of New Europe and Britain.
The autumn of 2022 allows us to sum up the efficiency of the strategy of each group of actors in the unfolding crisis.
🔹 The countries of “New Europe” have managed to get the United States actively immersed into European affairs. They have also achieved an internal political consolidation of their governments to embrace anti-Russian politics, which partially compensates for the dissatisfaction of the population over the fall in living standards. The failures of the “New Europe” include deep economic, social and migration crises — how they will compensate for it is not yet obvious.
🔹 The strategic successes of Western European countries are not obvious. Berlin, Paris, and Rome are facing unprecedented economic and energy crises, runaway inflation, and the risks of political destabilisation amid failed economic policies. These risks have been significantly exacerbated due to the fact that citizens actually pay for the prolongation of the crisis using their own money. There is a loss of initiative in “Old Europe” in the development of the crisis, which has been intercepted by the United States and “New Europe”.
🔹 The “gateway countries” — Hungary and Turkey — have acted more successfully. They have increased their autonomy from Washington and Brussels, and also offer themselves as platforms for diplomatic negotiations following the conflict, which enhances their international political weight. They didn’t pursue their course without risks: external pressure from the allies is increasing against them in order to “bring Ankara and Budapest back to the right line.”
Today we are witnessing a transition to the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis. The transition of the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West to 2023 seems highly probable, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #Europe
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
The Political Situation in Europe
Today we are witnessing a transition to the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis. Russia’s determination to win is very significant. Despite the exhaustion of Ukraine’s own resources, Western support is not weakening. This makes the transition of the military…
🇯🇵🇷🇺 The way Russia is pressured is creating an existential threat, against which it might use nuclear weapons. This would lead to a Third World War or Third European War.
It is not worth it, and all countries concerned have to be unified to find a common exit strategy out of this conflict, writes Kazuhiko Togo, Visiting Professor at the Global Centre for Asian and Regional Research at the University of Shizuoka, and Advisor for External Relations for Shizuoka Prefecture.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a-japanese-view-on-the-conflict-in-ukraine/
#UkraineCrisis #Japan
@valdai_club
It is not worth it, and all countries concerned have to be unified to find a common exit strategy out of this conflict, writes Kazuhiko Togo, Visiting Professor at the Global Centre for Asian and Regional Research at the University of Shizuoka, and Advisor for External Relations for Shizuoka Prefecture.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a-japanese-view-on-the-conflict-in-ukraine/
#UkraineCrisis #Japan
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
A Japanese View on the Conflict in Ukraine
The way Russia is pressured is creating an existential threat, against which it might use nuclear weapons. This would lead to a Third World War or Third European War. It is not worth it, and all countries concerned have to be unified to find a common exit…
🌏 Russia’s political relations with all Central Asian states are traditionally friendly.
With the onset of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, Russia’s attention to events unfolding in even such a close and important region as Central Asia has understandably waned, and this is arguably one of the important setbacks that could have serious ramifications. Following the collapse of the regime established by foreign interventionists in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power, and given the continuing tensions on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border and the acute domestic political crisis that hit Kazakhstan in the first half of January 2022, this region deserved to be in the focus of Russia’s foreign policy priorities. Also, Central Asia’s geopolitical location between the leading Eurasian powers makes it an object of considerable interest not only for Russia and China, but their opponents in the international arena as well.
Countries that are geographically close to Russia and China are, without a doubt, influenced by this proximity, which sometimes affects their domestic and foreign policy decisions. Others, that do not share a border with China or Russia or are geographically far from them, focus more on internal processes and show confidence in their abilities.
So, geopolitical position may well determine the way the Ukraine crisis will affect the Central Asian countries and reveal the main challenges for their domestic political stability, independence in their foreign relations and economic development, write the authors of a new Valdai report, titled “Central Asia and the Ukrainian Crisis”.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/central-asia-and-the-ukraine-crisis/
#valdai_report #Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
With the onset of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, Russia’s attention to events unfolding in even such a close and important region as Central Asia has understandably waned, and this is arguably one of the important setbacks that could have serious ramifications. Following the collapse of the regime established by foreign interventionists in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power, and given the continuing tensions on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border and the acute domestic political crisis that hit Kazakhstan in the first half of January 2022, this region deserved to be in the focus of Russia’s foreign policy priorities. Also, Central Asia’s geopolitical location between the leading Eurasian powers makes it an object of considerable interest not only for Russia and China, but their opponents in the international arena as well.
Countries that are geographically close to Russia and China are, without a doubt, influenced by this proximity, which sometimes affects their domestic and foreign policy decisions. Others, that do not share a border with China or Russia or are geographically far from them, focus more on internal processes and show confidence in their abilities.
So, geopolitical position may well determine the way the Ukraine crisis will affect the Central Asian countries and reveal the main challenges for their domestic political stability, independence in their foreign relations and economic development, write the authors of a new Valdai report, titled “Central Asia and the Ukrainian Crisis”.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/central-asia-and-the-ukraine-crisis/
#valdai_report #Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Central Asia and the Ukraine Crisis
Central Asia’s place in the constellation of Russia’s foreign policy interests is determined by its geopolitics, features of the international political architecture and Russia’s wide-ranging and multifaceted ties with the main states in the region. Central…
🗽🌏 When considering the main trends of the current international crisis, it becomes obvious that the initiative to the greatest extent belongs to the United States.
The goal of the United States is to prevent the world from becoming polycentric and consolidate its hegemony for the rest of the 21st century. To achieve this goal, Washington is trying to provoke Russia and China; to force them to take drastic steps that will alienate their allies. As a result of the violation of relations between Russia and China and their respective allies, the United States is counting on the release of significant material resources that can be used to strengthen its own influence.
The second task of the United States is to limit the economic growth of its own allies and force them to submit to the allied discipline. The US intends to eliminate impulses for strategic autonomy both within the European Union and among its partners and allies in Asia. Washington hopes that, as a result, it will strengthen its role as a key and indispensable participant in the multilateral military partnerships that US allies are part of.
Working separately with each country, the US seeks to involve its partners in East Asia in conflicts in Europe, and vice versa. This explains the exotic-looking negotiations on the supply of South Korean tanks to Poland. Although there is no direct connection between the Ukrainian crisis and the situation around Taiwan, the US is making every effort to create it artificially.
The search for cracks in the anti-Russian coalition of Western states is futile. Washington securely holds the initiative and literally twists the arms of states that risk raising their voice in favour of peace rather than war, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/motives-of-the-anti-russian-coalition/
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #geopolitics #hegemony #NewWorldOrder
@valdai_club
The goal of the United States is to prevent the world from becoming polycentric and consolidate its hegemony for the rest of the 21st century. To achieve this goal, Washington is trying to provoke Russia and China; to force them to take drastic steps that will alienate their allies. As a result of the violation of relations between Russia and China and their respective allies, the United States is counting on the release of significant material resources that can be used to strengthen its own influence.
The second task of the United States is to limit the economic growth of its own allies and force them to submit to the allied discipline. The US intends to eliminate impulses for strategic autonomy both within the European Union and among its partners and allies in Asia. Washington hopes that, as a result, it will strengthen its role as a key and indispensable participant in the multilateral military partnerships that US allies are part of.
Working separately with each country, the US seeks to involve its partners in East Asia in conflicts in Europe, and vice versa. This explains the exotic-looking negotiations on the supply of South Korean tanks to Poland. Although there is no direct connection between the Ukrainian crisis and the situation around Taiwan, the US is making every effort to create it artificially.
The search for cracks in the anti-Russian coalition of Western states is futile. Washington securely holds the initiative and literally twists the arms of states that risk raising their voice in favour of peace rather than war, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/motives-of-the-anti-russian-coalition/
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #geopolitics #hegemony #NewWorldOrder
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Motives of the Anti-Russian Coalition: Are There Cracks in the Monolith?
The search for cracks in the anti-Russian coalition of Western states is futile. Washington securely holds the initiative and literally twists the arms of states that risk raising their voice in favour of peace rather than war, writes Valdai Club Programme…
🇩🇪🇷🇺 The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022 changed the attitude of German officials towards Russia and its society.
There was a radical simplification of the image of Russia in Germany to a contrasting black and white image, without halftones. Most of Russian society has been subjected to systemic demonization, having experienced all the “achievements” of Western “cancel culture”.
The search for “good Russians” by German politicians ended in Berlin, where a “representative” community of opposition-minded Russians settled. It is these people who have now come to be regarded as a convenient substitute for the diverse breadth of Russian society.
For the first time in a long time, Germany could be completely satisfied with a dialogue with Russian representatives; there are no controversial subjects, since there is no independent interlocutor either.
The further Berlin moves away from direct communication with Moscow, the weaker will be the relevance of its assessments of what is happening not only within Russian-German relations, but also in relation to processes in the post-Soviet space, writes Valdai Club expert Artyom Sokolov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/dialogue-of-the-deaf-prospects/
#ModernDiplomacy #Germany #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
There was a radical simplification of the image of Russia in Germany to a contrasting black and white image, without halftones. Most of Russian society has been subjected to systemic demonization, having experienced all the “achievements” of Western “cancel culture”.
The search for “good Russians” by German politicians ended in Berlin, where a “representative” community of opposition-minded Russians settled. It is these people who have now come to be regarded as a convenient substitute for the diverse breadth of Russian society.
For the first time in a long time, Germany could be completely satisfied with a dialogue with Russian representatives; there are no controversial subjects, since there is no independent interlocutor either.
The further Berlin moves away from direct communication with Moscow, the weaker will be the relevance of its assessments of what is happening not only within Russian-German relations, but also in relation to processes in the post-Soviet space, writes Valdai Club expert Artyom Sokolov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/dialogue-of-the-deaf-prospects/
#ModernDiplomacy #Germany #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Dialogue of the Deaf: Prospects for the Transformation of Russian-German Inter-Societal Relations
The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022 changed the attitude of German officials towards Russia and its society. There was a radical simplification of the image of Russia in Germany to a contrasting black and white image, without halftones.…
🇷🇺 February 24 marks the first anniversary of the start of the special military operation (SMO) announced by the Russian leadership. This day a year ago, without any exaggeration, was one that divided Russian history into “before” and “after”.
It is clear that great things are seen at a distance, and trying now to provide any kind of “final” assessment of what is happening and determine its historical significance, would be approximately the same as reflecting in autumn of 1918 on the historical significance of the October Revolution that took place a year before. Then, the whole struggle was still ahead. The same can be said now. How the wheel of history would turn, no one knew in 1918, and no one knows today.
If we talk about the perception of the past year in Russian society, then we can start, oddly enough at first glance, with semantics and semiotics — in relation to the very abbreviation “SMO”.
The term “war”, as we all know, is being avoided in official Russian discourse. To a certain extent, how willingly this or that Russian uses this phrase “special military operation” in his speech can serve as a marker of his attitude to what is happening, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-first-year-of-the-conflict-the-semantics/
#Norms_and_Values #SMO #MilitaryOperation #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
It is clear that great things are seen at a distance, and trying now to provide any kind of “final” assessment of what is happening and determine its historical significance, would be approximately the same as reflecting in autumn of 1918 on the historical significance of the October Revolution that took place a year before. Then, the whole struggle was still ahead. The same can be said now. How the wheel of history would turn, no one knew in 1918, and no one knows today.
If we talk about the perception of the past year in Russian society, then we can start, oddly enough at first glance, with semantics and semiotics — in relation to the very abbreviation “SMO”.
The term “war”, as we all know, is being avoided in official Russian discourse. To a certain extent, how willingly this or that Russian uses this phrase “special military operation” in his speech can serve as a marker of his attitude to what is happening, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-first-year-of-the-conflict-the-semantics/
#Norms_and_Values #SMO #MilitaryOperation #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On April 17, at 12:00 p.m., the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, timed to coincide with the release of the new Valdai Report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
The fighting in Ukraine has forced most countries throughout the world to rethink theirmilitary potential in the event that they get engaged in a high-intensity interstate conflict, whether fighting alone or as part of a coalition.
As the experience of the special military operation in Ukraine shows, in the coming months, concrete decisions will be made in the field of politics and economics to strengthen defence potential, not only in the countries involved in the conflict, but also throughout the rest of the world. Such decisions can lead to a sharp increase in the burden on military-industrial complexes and logistics infrastructure, leading to the redistribution of government spending from one sector of the economy to another, as well as the accumulation of military power in various parts of the world.
❓What are the main political and economic lessons of the Ukrainian crisis at the moment?
❓What changes can the military industry undergo, taking into account the experience of hostilities in Ukraine?
❓What are the prospects for the growth of global military spending against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis?
Participants of the discussion will answer these and other questions.
🎙 Speakers:
🔹 Dmitry Stefanovich, Researcher, Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS (co-author of the report)
🔹 Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Section of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems, HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies
🔹 Alexander Yermakov, Junior Researcher, Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS (co-author of the report)
Moderator:
🚩 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club.
Working languages: Russian, English.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-conflict-in-ukraine-lessons-for-economics-and-industry/
🚩 Information for the media: IInformation for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
The fighting in Ukraine has forced most countries throughout the world to rethink theirmilitary potential in the event that they get engaged in a high-intensity interstate conflict, whether fighting alone or as part of a coalition.
As the experience of the special military operation in Ukraine shows, in the coming months, concrete decisions will be made in the field of politics and economics to strengthen defence potential, not only in the countries involved in the conflict, but also throughout the rest of the world. Such decisions can lead to a sharp increase in the burden on military-industrial complexes and logistics infrastructure, leading to the redistribution of government spending from one sector of the economy to another, as well as the accumulation of military power in various parts of the world.
❓What are the main political and economic lessons of the Ukrainian crisis at the moment?
❓What changes can the military industry undergo, taking into account the experience of hostilities in Ukraine?
❓What are the prospects for the growth of global military spending against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis?
Participants of the discussion will answer these and other questions.
🎙 Speakers:
🔹 Dmitry Stefanovich, Researcher, Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS (co-author of the report)
🔹 Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Section of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems, HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies
🔹 Alexander Yermakov, Junior Researcher, Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS (co-author of the report)
Moderator:
🚩 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club.
Working languages: Russian, English.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-conflict-in-ukraine-lessons-for-economics-and-industry/
🚩 Information for the media: IInformation for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
⚔️ Starting in February 2022, the developments in Ukraine have rapidly escalated into a military conflict on a scale that Europe hasn’t seen since World War II.
The conflict involves large concentrations of ground forces and a broad range of modern weapons. It is radically different from the conflicts of the past few decades, when technologically advanced powers more or less successfully conducted military operations against a technologically much weaker adversary.
In Ukraine the Russian army is confronting an enemy that possesses similar weapon systems and military equipment and receives arms and cutting-edge ammunition from Western countries.
It is yet to be assessed how the conflict is influencing the use of certain types of weapons as well as the strategy and tactics. But what is clear at this point already is a number of political and economic realities that will define the development of military industrial complexes in the advanced countries, the pattern of their defence spending, further R&D trends and priorities, and the like.
The hostilities in Ukraine have naturally compelled the majority of countries to think twice about the potential that they might need in a high-intensity armed clash between nations either on their own or as part of a coalition.
Obviously, we are seeing the multipolar world developing in full measure, but it will hardly become a safer place in the near future, write the authors of the new Valdai Report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/economic-statecraft-lessons-of-ukraine-conflict
⏰ Today at 12:00 p.m., the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, timed to coincide with the release of the new report. Watch it live on the website.
#EconomicStatecraft #valdai_report #UkraineCrisis #militarisation
@valdai_club
The conflict involves large concentrations of ground forces and a broad range of modern weapons. It is radically different from the conflicts of the past few decades, when technologically advanced powers more or less successfully conducted military operations against a technologically much weaker adversary.
In Ukraine the Russian army is confronting an enemy that possesses similar weapon systems and military equipment and receives arms and cutting-edge ammunition from Western countries.
It is yet to be assessed how the conflict is influencing the use of certain types of weapons as well as the strategy and tactics. But what is clear at this point already is a number of political and economic realities that will define the development of military industrial complexes in the advanced countries, the pattern of their defence spending, further R&D trends and priorities, and the like.
The hostilities in Ukraine have naturally compelled the majority of countries to think twice about the potential that they might need in a high-intensity armed clash between nations either on their own or as part of a coalition.
Obviously, we are seeing the multipolar world developing in full measure, but it will hardly become a safer place in the near future, write the authors of the new Valdai Report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/economic-statecraft-lessons-of-ukraine-conflict
⏰ Today at 12:00 p.m., the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, timed to coincide with the release of the new report. Watch it live on the website.
#EconomicStatecraft #valdai_report #UkraineCrisis #militarisation
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Economic Statecraft: Lessons of the Conflict in Ukraine
Starting in February 2022, the developments in Ukraine have rapidly escalated into a military conflict on a scale that Europe hasn’t seen since World War II. The conflict involves large concentrations of ground forces and a broad range of modern weapons.…
UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the session will be available soon via the same link. Stay tuned!
🎥 LIVE: at 12:00 p.m., we are starting an expert discussion “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, timed to coincide with the release of the new Valdai Report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239091
#EconomicStatecraft #valdai_report #UkraineCrisis #militarisation
@valdai_club
🎥 LIVE: at 12:00 p.m., we are starting an expert discussion “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, timed to coincide with the release of the new Valdai Report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239091
#EconomicStatecraft #valdai_report #UkraineCrisis #militarisation
@valdai_club
Vk
LIVE: The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry. An Expert Discussion
On April 17, at 12:00 p.m., the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, timed to coincide with the release of the new Valdai Report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict…
🕹'Cyberpunk', Unpreparedness for the Wars Before the Absence of "Magic Wands": The Economic Lessons of the Conflict in Ukraine
On April 17, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, which was timed to coincide with the publication of the report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
💬 Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, noted that when the world was preparing for conflicts, they were projected to be completely different: local and of relatively low intensity; these prevailing perceptions have since faded into the past. He invited participants to consider the lessons of what is happening from the point of view of economics, technology and industrial organisations.
💬 Alexander Yermakov, junior researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS and co-author of the report, pointed out that the world had forgotten about the last wars, and as a result, faced the problem of industry being unprepared to replenish stocks in the event of the high-intensity conflict typical of the last century. “We see that the arsenals of even major powers like the United States can be exhausted almost instantly,” he said. In his opinion, the United States can use its assistance to Ukraine as a pretext for "building up" its military-industrial complex, which needs to be modernised in the context of preparing for a possible conflict with China.
💬 Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS and co-author of the report, described the current situation as “real cyberpunk”: a mixture of high and low technologies - a combination of a picture reminiscent of the First World War and the ubiquitous information systems and unmanned platforms. At the same time, advanced solutions often come not from the military, but from civilian industries. He also considers it important to realize that there are no "magic wands" and that even the best weapons work only in combination, but do not change the course of events by themselves.
💬 Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Sector of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies of the Higher School of Economics, noted that before getting carried away by the issues of military power that have restored relevance, one should note that that this power is not an end in itself and that both it and its military-industrial complex are tools for solving problems of state and national policy. In addition, the military-industrial complex needs a powerful base, which can only be a civilian economy. In addition, he emphasized that people remain the main priority and key resource. In this regard, Tebin called it important to increase the attractiveness of work in the Russian military-industrial complex and take care of technical education, including secondary specialised education.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/cyberpunk-unpreparedness-for-the-wars-before-the-absence-of-magic-wands-the-economic-lessons-of-the-/
#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
On April 17, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, which was timed to coincide with the publication of the report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.
💬 Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, noted that when the world was preparing for conflicts, they were projected to be completely different: local and of relatively low intensity; these prevailing perceptions have since faded into the past. He invited participants to consider the lessons of what is happening from the point of view of economics, technology and industrial organisations.
💬 Alexander Yermakov, junior researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS and co-author of the report, pointed out that the world had forgotten about the last wars, and as a result, faced the problem of industry being unprepared to replenish stocks in the event of the high-intensity conflict typical of the last century. “We see that the arsenals of even major powers like the United States can be exhausted almost instantly,” he said. In his opinion, the United States can use its assistance to Ukraine as a pretext for "building up" its military-industrial complex, which needs to be modernised in the context of preparing for a possible conflict with China.
💬 Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS and co-author of the report, described the current situation as “real cyberpunk”: a mixture of high and low technologies - a combination of a picture reminiscent of the First World War and the ubiquitous information systems and unmanned platforms. At the same time, advanced solutions often come not from the military, but from civilian industries. He also considers it important to realize that there are no "magic wands" and that even the best weapons work only in combination, but do not change the course of events by themselves.
💬 Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Sector of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies of the Higher School of Economics, noted that before getting carried away by the issues of military power that have restored relevance, one should note that that this power is not an end in itself and that both it and its military-industrial complex are tools for solving problems of state and national policy. In addition, the military-industrial complex needs a powerful base, which can only be a civilian economy. In addition, he emphasized that people remain the main priority and key resource. In this regard, Tebin called it important to increase the attractiveness of work in the Russian military-industrial complex and take care of technical education, including secondary specialised education.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/cyberpunk-unpreparedness-for-the-wars-before-the-absence-of-magic-wands-the-economic-lessons-of-the-/
#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
'Cyberpunk', Unpreparedness for the Wars Before the Absence of "Magic Wands": The Economic Lessons of the Conflict in Ukraine
On April 17, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, which was timed to coincide with the publication of the report "Economic Statecraft: Lessons of the Conflict in Ukraine”. Discussion…
⚔️ How will the current crisis end? There is currently no political solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The sustainability of any peace agreement, even if it is reached, is a big question. The West fears a sharp military escalation and a war with Russia, which could quickly turn into an exchange of nuclear strikes. However, NATO’s gradual military involvement in the conflict cannot be ruled out.
There will be no return to reality of 2021. Obviously, Russia will do everything possible to protect the new territorial status quo, as well as to undermine the military potential of Ukraine as much as possible. It is also obvious that the West will do everything possible to exhaust Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-west-rising-stakes/
#EconomicStatecraft #geopolitics #UkraineCrisis
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The sustainability of any peace agreement, even if it is reached, is a big question. The West fears a sharp military escalation and a war with Russia, which could quickly turn into an exchange of nuclear strikes. However, NATO’s gradual military involvement in the conflict cannot be ruled out.
There will be no return to reality of 2021. Obviously, Russia will do everything possible to protect the new territorial status quo, as well as to undermine the military potential of Ukraine as much as possible. It is also obvious that the West will do everything possible to exhaust Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-west-rising-stakes/
#EconomicStatecraft #geopolitics #UkraineCrisis
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⚔️ Hans Morgenthau, another prominent realist of the first half of the 20th century, wrote that war will not end until human nature is imperfect.
International relations are still well explained by the metaphors and maxims used in the History of the Peloponnesian War by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, when he commented on the rivalry between Athens and Sparta.
Russia’s break with the West is not a short-term phenomenon. Perhaps we are at the beginning of a long crisis that could last a decade or more.
The British historian Edward Carr once retrospectively described the 20-year period between the world wars as a “long crisis”. I admit that we are also at the beginning of a “new long crisis”, of which the Ukrainian crisis is only a part. It is also completely open whether or not everything will be limited to the conflict in Ukraine.
In the Russian tradition of training diplomats and analysts, disciplines are emphasised to make it possible to understand the true needs and interests of opposing partners. It is not necessary that if you understand them well, you will agree with them. This means that in the event of a conflict, you can, first, find a weak spot in the positions of the counterparty, and, second, let him understand that his needs can be satisfied in another acceptable way, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-crisis-as-a-laboratory/
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #diplomacy
🗣 🗣 🗣
International relations are still well explained by the metaphors and maxims used in the History of the Peloponnesian War by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, when he commented on the rivalry between Athens and Sparta.
Russia’s break with the West is not a short-term phenomenon. Perhaps we are at the beginning of a long crisis that could last a decade or more.
The British historian Edward Carr once retrospectively described the 20-year period between the world wars as a “long crisis”. I admit that we are also at the beginning of a “new long crisis”, of which the Ukrainian crisis is only a part. It is also completely open whether or not everything will be limited to the conflict in Ukraine.
In the Russian tradition of training diplomats and analysts, disciplines are emphasised to make it possible to understand the true needs and interests of opposing partners. It is not necessary that if you understand them well, you will agree with them. This means that in the event of a conflict, you can, first, find a weak spot in the positions of the counterparty, and, second, let him understand that his needs can be satisfied in another acceptable way, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-crisis-as-a-laboratory/
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #diplomacy
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Valdai Club
The Ukrainian Crisis as a Laboratory of World Politics of the 21st Century
It is difficult for us to conduct a dialogue with Westerners and more and more often there is nothing to talk about at all: they use clichés and ideological theses, stubbornly try to promote their narrow-mindedness, and are completely unprepared for a reasoned…
🇰🇷 In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the existing world order and its principles, which have operated on the premise of US hegemony for the past 30 years, are being destroyed.
Although the outcome of the war is still unclear, some are paying attention to the possibility of a bipolar system forming, in which the US and China are each responsible for one axis due to Russia’s loss of its power status, while some are focusing on the possibility of a multipolar system forming, led by the US, China, Russia, and several other powers together. Other experts also point to aspects of “international disorder”.
The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to maintain a unipolar system at the global level, and Russia, which is trying to become a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to help establish a multipolar system at the global level.
This crisis also poses new challenges for South Korea, which is thousands of kilometres away from the battlefield in Ukraine, writes Sung-Hoon Jeh.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-crisis-and-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #UkraineCrisis
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Although the outcome of the war is still unclear, some are paying attention to the possibility of a bipolar system forming, in which the US and China are each responsible for one axis due to Russia’s loss of its power status, while some are focusing on the possibility of a multipolar system forming, led by the US, China, Russia, and several other powers together. Other experts also point to aspects of “international disorder”.
The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to maintain a unipolar system at the global level, and Russia, which is trying to become a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to help establish a multipolar system at the global level.
This crisis also poses new challenges for South Korea, which is thousands of kilometres away from the battlefield in Ukraine, writes Sung-Hoon Jeh.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-crisis-and-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #UkraineCrisis
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Valdai Club
Ukraine Crisis and South Korea
The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in…
⚔️ Would the Ukraine crisis be limited to Ukraine’s territory?
Russia is fully cognizant that currently the American bureaucratic procedures governing the allocation of resources essential for sustaining Ukraine are duly reflected in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, implying that the conflict is unlikely to conclude within this timeframe.
Both the US Congress and the White House exhibit a shared comprehension and alignment in their objective to achieve “victory over Russia” on the battlefield. This institutional consolidation renders the United States a formidable adversary in this conflict, particularly within the scope of the annual timeframe.
Nevertheless, our interlocutors seem to be struggling to fully grasp the notion that Russia possesses invincible military capabilities. Russia has unequivocally conveyed its commitment to pursue its goals through any means necessary, even if it involves prolonged military action. Given such circumstances, negotiations would have been a more rational approach to dealing with Russia.
Understanding the significance of Ukraine to Russia and recognising the necessity of engaging in dialogue to address the matter would have been prudent. Russia will achieve its goals anyway.
Societies appear fatigued by the prolonged crisis, but this exhaustion has not yet led to significant shifts in public opinion among the European countries.
The Ukraine crisis would be limited to the territory of Ukraine only if no armed forces of NATO countries would enter the frontline, writes Valdai Club Program Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/would-the-ukraine-crisis-be-limited-to-ukraine/
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis
🗣 🗣 🗣
Russia is fully cognizant that currently the American bureaucratic procedures governing the allocation of resources essential for sustaining Ukraine are duly reflected in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, implying that the conflict is unlikely to conclude within this timeframe.
Both the US Congress and the White House exhibit a shared comprehension and alignment in their objective to achieve “victory over Russia” on the battlefield. This institutional consolidation renders the United States a formidable adversary in this conflict, particularly within the scope of the annual timeframe.
Nevertheless, our interlocutors seem to be struggling to fully grasp the notion that Russia possesses invincible military capabilities. Russia has unequivocally conveyed its commitment to pursue its goals through any means necessary, even if it involves prolonged military action. Given such circumstances, negotiations would have been a more rational approach to dealing with Russia.
Understanding the significance of Ukraine to Russia and recognising the necessity of engaging in dialogue to address the matter would have been prudent. Russia will achieve its goals anyway.
Societies appear fatigued by the prolonged crisis, but this exhaustion has not yet led to significant shifts in public opinion among the European countries.
The Ukraine crisis would be limited to the territory of Ukraine only if no armed forces of NATO countries would enter the frontline, writes Valdai Club Program Director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/would-the-ukraine-crisis-be-limited-to-ukraine/
#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis
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Valdai Club
Would The Ukraine Crisis be Limited to Ukraine’s Territory?
What are the prospects of the current ever-escalating crisis? While historical events are often characterised as continuous experiments, a resemblance can be observed between the Korean War and the ongoing crisis. The Korean War involved a significant deployment…