🔖⛔️ The modern policy of sanctions resembles, to some extent, the management practices of the Mongol Golden Horde.

One of its elements was a system of labels (jarligs), orders, or permissions that were issued by the khan to his vassals. We remember well from history textbooks about the jarligs which were issued to rulers, that is, the permission the khan granted to the Russian princes to own this or that land. Jarligs were also issued to the clergy, freeing them from taxes or giving them other privileges.

The jarlig was an instrument of imperial policy, fixing the decisions of the khan in relation to rulers or institutions dependent on him. It had a transboundary character, that is, it was a tool for managing a subordinate, but at the same time alien territory. On the one hand, it was the property of the khan. But on the other hand, it was a separate state unit.

It would seem that it makes sense to discuss Horde practices in relation to Russia, pointing to the “Asian” nature of its political power, its despotism and excessive concentration of power. A similar narrative, in one form or another, has been developing for centuries among Russia’s Western neighbours.

However, some imperial practices appear to be universal. Today they can be observed in US policy and, to some extent, in the policy of the European Union. 

The experience of the Golden Horde, like many other empires, is that “jarligs” lose their meaning when the mass of players who ignore them becomes critical. Western “soft empires” continue to retain a large margin of safety. However, the resistance of major players like Russia may gradually undermine their dominance, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions

@valdai_club

🇨🇳🇹🇼🇺🇸 There is no doubt that the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Pelosi to Taiwan will worsen Sino-US relations.

On August 2, in parallel with Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army of China began military drills in areas encircling Taiwan. Thus, by August 2022, the escalation of tensions between China and the United States peaked.

Despite the desire of the United States to shake up the situation in the Taiwan Strait, creating additional internal problems for China, Biden has not yet managed to achieve a strategic advantage in relations with China. Beijing is clearly aware of all possible risks and is taking the necessary actions to minimise them. 

Therefore, one should hardly expect China to allow itself to be drawn into an armed confrontation with Taiwan, writes Yury Kulintsev, Deputy Director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies (IFES) Russian Academy of Sciences.

#EconomicStatecraft #Taiwan #Pelosi #China

@valdai_club

📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On August 9, at 11:30 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will hold an expert discussion on the prospects for the Kaliningrad transit.

The crisis in relations between Russia and the West, against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine, directly affects the Baltic region. The trigger for the aggravation was the European Union sanctions against Russia, introduced after the start of Moscow’s special military operation. These hit the transportation of goods to the Kaliningrad region. The Russian authorities announced that Lithuania had banned the transit of a wide range of Russian cargo. Moscow has threatened retaliatory measures. The European Union provided clarifications regarding the sanctions legislation, which, subject to certain conditions, made it possible to maintain rail transit. However, Lithuania continues to create obstacles, in particular, the bank servicing transport operations has announced that it will stop doing so. The normal functioning of transit is vital for the Kaliningrad region.

❓ To what extent are the imposed restrictions legal from the point of view of international law?
❓ What can Russian diplomacy do to prevent the recurrence of such crises?
❓ To what extent is Russia prepared for the situation to worsen?
❓ What is required for the development of maritime transit in terms of providing port infrastructure and ships? How serious is their deficiency?
❓ Which goods is it critical for the region to obtain?

Participants in the discussion will answer these and other questions.

👥 Speakers:

🔹 Anton Alikhanov, Governor of the Kaliningrad Region

🔹 Alexei Bezborodov, Managing Partner of Infra Projects LLC

🔹 Alexey Isakov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Ambassador at Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation @MFARussia

🔹 Anton Kozlov, Head of Foreign Projects and International Cooperation Department, JSC Russian Railways

Moderator:

🚩 Ivan Timofeev, Programme director of the Valdai Discussion Club

Working languages: Russian, English

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763. 

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Yandex.Zen.

#EconomicStatecraft #Kaliningrad #sanctions

@valdai_club

🇪🇺⛔️ The seventh package of the European Union sanctions against Russia in connection with the events in Ukraine will be remembered for its ban on the import of Russian gold, the expansion of export controls, as well as its list of blocked individuals and organisations.

However, an important new feature hasn’t been thoroughly discussed. In Art. 9 Council Regulation EU No. 269/2014, a rule was introduced that sanctioned individuals are required to report to the competent authorities of an EU country about their assets in the jurisdiction of the European Union. The deadlines are stringent.

Let’s recall that the essence of blocking sanctions is that the assets of individuals and organisations that fall under them in the EU are frozen. In other words, they formally remain the property of such persons, but their use is forbidden. These assets may include bank accounts, real estate, capital goods, vehicles, etc. In addition, blocked persons are prohibited from providing “economic resources”. This essentially means a ban on most economic relations with them.

The experience of the crisis concerning transit to the Kaliningrad region has shown that the authorities of individual member states can interpret EU sanctions very broadly. It cannot be ruled out that the new features of the seventh package will receive similarly broad interpretations.

It is necessary to be ready for a scenario where the property of individuals and structures in the EU is confiscated, as well as their criminal prosecution in certain EU countries for violating sanctions legislation, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions

@valdai_club

⚓️🇷🇺 On Russian Navy Day, July 31, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Decree No. 512 “On the Approval of the Naval Doctrine of the Russian Federation”.

The document significantly expands the number of Russia’s national interests in the World Ocean, from eight to fourteen.

🌊 The necessity of preserving for Russia “the status of a great maritime power, whose activities are aimed at maintaining strategic stability in the World Ocean” amid “the emerging polycentric world” is noted.

🌊 The development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and the Northern Sea Route has been added to the list of national interests.

🌊 The United States and its allies, which are implementing a containment policy towards Russia, directly confront Russia’s independent foreign and domestic policy. The force factor continues to play a role in international relations.

🌊 The Naval Doctrine identifies ten challenges and threats to national security and the sustainable development of Russia related to the World Ocean. The key challenges and threats are the confrontation with the United States and its allies (including NATO members), which are striving to dominate the World Ocean.

🌊 Certain risks among those identified by the Naval Doctrine for Russia’s maritime activity should be noted: the sanctions against Russian shipbuilding and oil and gas enterprises and companies.

🌊 The functional areas of maritime activities of the 2015 edition (sea transport, the development and conservation of the resources of the World Ocean, marine scientific research, naval activities), have been supplemented by a fifth — the development of offshore pipeline systems.

🌊 The list of regions of operation defined by the national maritime policy has remained unchanged, but their ordering has changed. The 2022 edition of the Naval Doctrine lowered the Atlantic region to third place in the list, while the Arctic and Pacific take first and second place. The division of the Atlantic region into three basins is emphasised — the Baltic Sea, the Azov-Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.

The new Naval Doctrine is strikingly different from the 2015 edition. The world described in it seems much more disturbing and dangerous; its potential for conflict has increased significantly. At the same time, the Naval Doctrine has become more ambitious, Valdai Club expert Prokhor Tebin writes.

#EconomicStatecraft #Navy

@valdai_club

🗺 There are almost 200 sovereign countries in the world, including large, medium and small ones — but not all can be considered truly sovereign; fewer than half, in fact.

This is not surprising — the entire international order after the Second World War was focused on somehow solving the problem of an ever-increasing number of formal sovereign jurisdictions. This is really a problem, because only a limited number of states have the resources to ensure a relatively independent existence. The rest had to rely on special connections with more powerful players from the start. Here there is no need to talk about complete sovereignty.

For several decades, the consequences of the participation in world politics of many sovereign states which are incapable of independence have been mitigated through the institutions of the Liberal International Order. This gave small and medium-sized countries the opportunity to develop within a certain system of rules and norms determined by the West, led by the United States. Scores of countries throughout the world were actually deprived of sovereignty with respect to their domestic and foreign policies.

In some cases, as, for example, in the system of agreements between the European Union and groups of developing countries, the renunciation of full sovereignty was fixed in the form of obligations in exchange for access to the resource development offered by Europe. All this, however, required the West to actually share a part, albeit a small one, of the development resources that the global market economy created.

In Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, we can find a whole group of countries for which the renunciation of sovereignty has already turned out to be practically the official “key” to a brighter future within the Liberal world order, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. There were countries which were suppliers of labour, other countries were gas stations, still other countries were granaries, other countries were military bases, and so on.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #WorldOrder

@valdai_club

🌏 The ideology of liberal internationalism rejects the existence of a security dilemma as Russia can be a threat to the West, yet NATO cannot conceivably be considered a threat to Russia as it merely advances liberal values.

Russia is no longer pursuing a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok in which Russia feeds the continent and supplies natural resources for European industries, and in return imports Western technologies and industrial products.

🎏 The Greater Eurasian Partnership is no longer an instrument for merely diversifying economic connectivity but has now become a necessity for a complete economic divorce from the West.

🎏 The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) continues to aspire to develop further economic competencies, and will likely accept Iran as a new member in September.

🎏 BRICS is also ramping up for a greater role in economic recovery and is preparing to accept Argentina and Iran as new members.

🎏 The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has developed slowly, although there are new incentives for common regulatory acts to enhance autonomy and stability in an increasingly chaotic world.

The balance of power across the multipolar Greater Eurasia results in several commonalities among the Eurasian international institutions. These institutions focus on the principle of sovereign equality and international law in accordance with the UN Charter. Competing interests among the different poles of power ensure that these institutions are focused on security with other members, instead of security against non-members. The values tend to centre on common prosperity as stipulated by the “Shanghai spirit”, while eschewing values that can be used to impose sovereign inequality.

For the foreseeable future, Russian weapons will be pointing towards the West, and Russia’s economic connectivity will be directed towards the East, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen @glenndiesen.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #multipolarity

@valdai_club

🚢 Reliable and uninterrupted maritime transit of people and cargo to the Kaliningrad Region has become a particularly pressing issue, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

⏰ TODAY at 11:30 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will hold an expert discussion on the prospects for the Kaliningrad transit.

❓ To what extent are the imposed restrictions legal from the point of view of international law?
❓ What can Russian diplomacy do to prevent the recurrence of such crises?
❓ To what extent is Russia prepared for the situation to worsen?
❓ What is required for the development of maritime transit in terms of providing port infrastructure and ships?
❓ Which goods is it critical for the region to obtain?

Participants in the discussion will answer these and other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Yandex.Zen.

#Kaliningrad #sanctions

@valdai_club

UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 11:30 Moscow time (GMT+3) we will start an expert discussion on the prospects for the Kaliningrad transit.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239026

@valdai_club

📷 On August 9, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the prospects for the Kaliningrad transit.

Photo gallery of the discussion is available on VK.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

Stay tuned!

@valdai_club

🛤🚫 Kaliningrad Transit, the Degradation of Relations and a 'Creative Approach' to Sanctions

On August 9, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the prospects for the transit of goods and passengers to the Kaliningrad Region, as well as on the problems that have arisen in connection with the so-called “creative approach" of Lithuania to the European Union Sanctions Regime, as discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club, said. He stressed that so far, frictions have been smoothed out, but against the backdrop of ever-tougher sanctions, it cannot be guaranteed that they will not start again.

💬 Anton Alikhanov, Governor of the Kaliningrad Region, briefly outlined the situation with the land transit of sanctioned goods and listed the existing restrictions and potential problems. Separately, he noted that in order to ensure the delivery of goods to the region this year, maritime transport has become much more actively involved. In addition, the governor pointed to the difficulties caused by Lithuania's attempts to limit the ability to pay Lithuanian Railways for the transit of goods.

💬 Anton Kozlov, Head of Foreign Projects and International Cooperation Department at JSC Russian Railways, presented the company's point of view on what is happening. According to the results of the first half of the year, the volume of traffic on the Kaliningrad railway has slightly decreased. Transit links with the EU countries were especially affected. Speaking about the situation with transit, he pointed out that, according to Russian Railways, Lithuania, within the framework of its international obligations, is responsible for ensuring Kaliningrad transit, including preventing the creation of any artificial obstacles.

💬 Alexey Isakov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Ambassador at Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, called the support of the Kaliningrad region one of the most important tasks of Russia's foreign policy. As a result of Lithuania's actions, the risk of a cargo blockade of the exclave arose, but the worst case scenario was avoided through the efforts of the Foreign Ministry. Nevertheless, the found solutions can be considered only as intermediate ones, and the state of affairs is still far from normal. The ambassador stressed that Russia considers it necessary to completely withdraw Kaliningrad transit from illegitimate EU sanctions.

💬 Aleksey Bezborodov, Managing Partner of Infra Projects LLC, pointed to a serious deterioration in the approaches of the Lithuanian authorities and business to economic cooperation with the Russian Federation. In his opinion, Lithuania will strive for the complete closure of transit, and against this background, it is necessary to prepare for the creation of a full-fledged sea bridge. In particular, the expert called for the creation of a container fleet to meet the needs of the Kaliningrad region as a necessary measure.

@valdaiclub

⛔️ Sanctions against Russia, for the most part, will not be lifted even in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine and a peace agreement. There will be no return to “pre-February normality”.

Why is the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia extremely unlikely? There are several reasons.

1️⃣ The first reason is the complexity of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. It has every chance of being prolonged for a long time. Currently, there are no parameters for a political compromise that would suit all parties.

2️⃣ The second reason is the stable nature of the contradictions between Russia and the West. The conflict in Ukraine is part of a larger Euro-Atlantic security palette. An unstable system of asymmetric bipolarity has formed in Europe, in which the security of Russia and NATO can hardly be indivisible.

Containing Russia is the best strategy for the West. Ukraine is doomed to remain one of the areas of containment.

For Russia, the strategy of asymmetric balancing of Western superiority remains optimal.

3️⃣ The third reason is the institutional features of the sanctions policy of the initiating countries. Experience shows that sanctions are relatively easy to impose but very difficult to lift. Thus, with regard to Iran, a whole “web of laws”has formed in the United States, which significantly limits the administration's ability to lift sanctions. Of course, individual restrictions are lifted or relaxed in the interests of the initiating countries themselves. However, the legal mechanisms of sanctions themselves remain and can be used at any time.

4️⃣ The fourth reason is the quick reversibility of the sanctions. Often, their abolition is accompanied by political demands, the implementation of which is a complicated process. For example, the Iranian nuclear deal required several years of complex negotiations and significant technological decisions. However, the return of sanctions can be carried out overnight. 

5️⃣ The fifth reason is the ability to adapt. Without a doubt, Russia will suffer enormous damage from the restrictive measures which have been introduced. However, the possibility of it adapting to the sanctions regime remains high.

Instead of remembering a lost past, we will have to focus on creating a new future in which Western sanctions remain a constant variable, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions

@valdai_club

🧩🌐 The global geopolitical configuration continues its transformation away from the embattled hegemony of the Western-centric US unipolar order towards a non-Western centric multipolar order.

As such, the level of competition and conflict is likely to increase as the US is a declining hegemon seeks to arrest the rise of competing are perceived to grow at their expense.

With its hard power resources in disarray and decline, new means are sought (in terms of mitigating various risks and costs) to manage and regulate the international order.

Hence there is a repositioning of operational focus activity from the physical realm to the information realm to engineer global perception and expectations in the cognitive realm to preserve the Western-centric “rules-based” order. The (mis)representation and communication of modern diplomacy is absolutely standing in contrast to each other.

Diplomacy is being used as a mechanism to try to shape and determine the outcome of this geopolitical contest for the future of how the world shall function, writes Valdai Club expert Gregory Simons.

#ModernDiplomacy #hegemony #WorldOrder

@valdaiclub

📍🚧 As a transportation industry, gas pipelines play a critical role within major economic regions: the US, China, the European Union and Russia.

The rest of the world is mainly connected with liquefied natural gas (LNG). It’s true that LNG produces 25 percent more greenhouse gas emissions, but only the Greens care about that.  

The sustainable operation of large pipelines requires reliable pipes, compressors (turbines), a warranty service, freedom of use, insurance, and much more, as contracts require it, or rather, the need for supplies. Conflicts over freedom of pumping between distant partners, non-contractual gas off-take, or uncertainty regarding the reliability of equipment can make the use of pipelines risky for the industrial or domestic needs of importing countries.

Russian pipelines have worked for a very long time and reliably. The EU's decision to halt pipeline gas supplies in the foreseeable future suggests a transitional period, during which both sides create a clear and enforceable relationship structure. Something similar is likely to work in the future for grain, fertilizer and other critical Russian exports.

In this context, the disputes in the summer of 2022 regarding the repair and delivery of a Siemens turbine from Canada for Nord Stream 2 are not so much a technical issue but a legal and economic one this would be a pilot project for the coming years.

The EU's intention to reduce overall gas consumption by 15 percent by March 2023 is probably feasible, but only if there is moderately cold winter, writes Leonid Grigoryev, a tenured professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

#ModernDiplomacy #Europe #gas

@valdaiclub

👷🌐 Looking ahead, there may be reasons to expect a reversion of the share of labour in national income in the coming years.

This trend that may have significant implications for the evolution of the global economy. The economic effects are likely to be also complemented by political shifts favouring left-wing parties, with some of the regions (Latin America being a case in point) already starting to exhibit these trends. 

✅ One of the bellwether indicators of a potential resurgence in labour is the rise in the levels of unionization.

✅ In the political sphere pro-labour forces are starting to gain the upper hand.

✅ There are also drivers emerging that may underpin a rising trend in wages and social security transfers.

The increasing role and share of labour is long overdue in the global economy. The main benefit from this long-term trend will be a greater emphasis placed in development on human capital, most notably in education and healthcare. It may also lead to a substantial revision in economic policy in terms of priorities and instruments used.

The transformation of capitalism towards a more labour-oriented mode is underway, writes Yaroslav Lissovolik, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

#Valdai_WorldEconomy

@valdaiclub

🇨🇳🇷🇺 Xi Jinping’s foreign policy thinking is actually the main guiding principle of modern Chinese diplomacy.

At the level of political practice, especially when it comes to China’s understanding of the current international order, Xi Jinping’s foreign policy thinking consists of three main concepts.

1️⃣ The first concept is great power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics (中国特色大国外交). China emphasises the non-confrontational nature of Sino-American relations, the stability of Sino-European relations and the possibility of cooperation in Sino-Russian relations. However, the United States already considers China its main competitor. Therefore, Beijing’s main goal is to keep bilateral relations from breaking through the “red line fence”. In interaction with Europe, attention is focused on the fact that both sides must continue to develop stable and predictable economic and cultural ties, while also facilitating interaction between markets.

Cooperation between China and Russia as partners rather than allies actually maximises the flexibility and space for adjusting relations between Beijing and Moscow. Therefore, despite the difficulties in economic cooperation between China and Russia under the influence of Western sanctions and the international situation, Beijing still regards Sino-Russian relations as a “classic model of great power relations”.

2️⃣ The second concept is the Community of the Common Destiny of Mankind (人类命运共同体). The political elite of the country believes that as overall power rises, China will be able to exert more influence on international institutions. Therefore, the leadership led by Xi Jinping has proposed numerous frameworks for cooperation, including the Belt and Road initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Within the framework of the Community of the Common Destiny of Mankind, countries can form a more effective interdependence, as a result of which they will be able to reverse the “zero-sum game” and the “security dilemma”. On the one hand, this stems from the ideas of classical Chinese philosophy, and on the other hand, from the practical experience of contacts between China and the East Asian states at the beginning of the 21st century.

3️⃣ The third concept is international relations of a new type (新型国际关系). According to Xi Jinping, existing interstate relations, especially between large states, are unlikely to be able to address the new challenges of the 21st century. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a “concept of joint, sustainable security”. At the same time, compared to other Chinese leaders, the President of China considers the country’s active participation in global governance as an important source of legitimacy of the country’s power in the international system. As a result, Beijing has shown a more active attitude towards global problems.

The close bilateral relationship between China and Russia is one of the most important features of the evolution of international relations in the early 21st century. At the same time, the changing international order has also created new areas for Sino-Russian cooperation, writes Valdai Club expert Xu Bo.

#EconomicStatecraft #China

@valdai_club

🇺🇸🇹🇼🇨🇳 The visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island of Taiwan was undoubtedly an unpleasant event for Beijing. At the same time, the step was fully consistent with the spirit of modern US foreign policy.

Washington, in an effort to maintain its own hegemony and the position of a world democratic leader, is constantly testing the boundaries of other states, which, in the opinion of the American authorities, are a threat.

However, when analysing the “fourth Taiwan crisis”, it is still a constant that the PRC leadership only considers a military path in the event that the Taipei administration declares independence and the direct intervention of a third party, that is, the United States and any of its allies.

China always acts according to its own plan, at its own pace and solely in its own interests, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

#EconomicStatecraft #Taiwan #China #UnitedStates

@valdai_club

🛢🚫 The situation with the Nord Stream clearly illustrates the degradation of the legal basis for Russia’s interaction with the countries of the collective West and the lack of prospects for the revival of fairly-conducted trade in the medium term.

The actions of the Canadian authorities and Berlin’s solidarity with its transatlantic partners, which artificially creates obstacles to the implementation of joint gas transportation projects, indicate the predominance of the political factor in the traditional trade and economic mechanisms of interaction between the Euro-Atlantic partners and Moscow.

Taking into account the significant rise in the cost of hydrocarbons, the failure of the “green transition” in Europe and the ongoing stagnation of Western markets, the leading circles of Brussels and Washington considered that the time had come to transfer responsibility for turbulence in the energy markets and dynamically accelerating inflation in key European countries to Russia.

At the same time, the strengthening mechanism of unfair competition in the EU natural gas market becomes obvious. Gazprom’s competitors, primarily among the American LNG producers, see their interest in presenting Moscow as an “extremely unreliable partner” that imposes long-term contractual “bondage” on fuel supplies to democratic countries, and they are only waiting for the expensive LNG, given the current spot prices.

Such trends will inevitably affect the cost of all elements of production schemes in key sectors for the global economy: agriculture, fertilizers, the chemical industry, transport, etc. Such forecasts are mutually unacceptable both for the leadership of Brussels, and for Moscow, writes Valdai Club expert Vyacheslav Dmitriev.

#EconomicStatecraft #NordStream2 #gas #sanctions

@valdai_club