🇰🇷 Presidential elections will be held in South Korea in early March.

Given that there will be about a dozen candidates, as one might expect, everyone understands that the real struggle for the presidency will be led by representatives of the country’s two main political camps: Yoon Seok-youl, representing the right-wing conservative camp, which is now in opposition, and Lee Jae-myung, representing the moderate left-wing nationalists, who have been in power since 2017.

Nobody can predict the outcome of the elections: as often happens in Korea, polls show that both main candidates have almost equal support, so that everything will be decided in the last days or even hours.

Both the right-wing conservative and the progressive camps are almost equally emphasising their readiness to orient themselves towards Washington. Nevertheless, the conservatives accuse their opponents of not being pro-American enough in their stance. 

Of course, these accusations, like any election propaganda, are an exaggeration, but there is some small grain of truth in them, writes Valdai Club expert Andrei Lankov.

🔗 South Korean Presidential Election: Why Former Left-Wing Radicals Become Staunch US Allies

#Conflict_and_Leadership #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇰🇵 The Republic of Korea and the DPRK still perceive themselves as post-colonial states.

At the same time, the pulling force of antipathy towards the former metropolis is so strong that the antagonistic North and South act from a unified position. Historical issues also outweigh political and economic conjuncture: Seoul, which is in the same regional pro-American “camp” as Tokyo, is ready to risk developed and mutually beneficial cooperation with Japan, in seeking recognition of its position on memory issues.

The loss of independence by Korea following the end of the 19th century and the subsequent period of Japanese colonial rule (1910-1945) have remained in the historical memory of Koreans as an era of national humiliation.

This collective trauma has not been fully overcome even today; moreover, it has become one of the supporting structures of modern Korea’s political myth and national identity, writes Valdai Club Expert Ilya Dyachkov.

🔗 Questions of the Past – Politics of the Future? Historical Issues in South Korean-Japanese Relations

#Norms_and_Values #SouthKorea #Japan

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇺🇸 It seems that Yoon Seok-youl’s administration wants to move closer to Washington, but the nature and pace of this process will neither be uniform nor unambiguous.

According to some theoretical views, the Republic of Korea has all the features of a so-called middle range power, capable of the independent protection of national interests and expansion of its influence within East Asia.

In this regard, we can expect further increased attention to Seoul from Beijing, which never misses an opportunity to reduce American influence, playing on the desire of some US allies and partners to become more independent. At the same time, China is capable, not only of shows of force and “wolf-warrior” rhetoric, but also exerting soft-power pressure through financial and economic instruments.

Despite Biden’s emphasis on the North Korean threat in a telephone conversation following the election results, it’s most likely that the Yun Suk-Youl administration still intends to counter a possible threat from the PRC as a medium-term priority. The likelihood of an unprovoked nuclear attack from the North is far less possible than the chances of the US-China disputes going into a “hot” phase, which would require Seoul to support Washington with troops and/or logistics.

At the same time, in the short term, the North Korean factor will undoubtedly be actively used by Seoul’s new authorities as a justification for rapprochement with the United States, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

🔗 South Korea on the Defence: US Pressure Is Stronger

#EconomicStatecraft #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇰🇵 One gets the impression that at present both Pyongyang and Seoul are trying to aggravate the situation. 

Analysts acknowledge that the situation on the Korean Peninsula since the early 2022 has steadily begun to trend towards a consistent increase in tension.

But the events of recent weeks have given this process significant impetus.

The topic of an imminent new (seventh) nuclear test by the DPRK has begun to be actively discussed both in Seoul and Washington.

What one side considers a necessary measure of self-defence, the other side, not without reason, perceives as an “intolerable provocation”, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Vorontsov.

🔗 The End of Military and Political Stability on the Korean Peninsula

#EconomicStatecraft #DPRK #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇵🇰🇷 Acute Stability: Lessons from the Korean Confrontation

On July 27, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the Korean Peninsula and timed to coincide with the release of the Valdai report titled “The Return of History. The Cold War as a guide to contemporary international crises”. 

Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Valdai Club, moderated the discussion. He noted that after the end of the Cold War, the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula was perceived by many as a relic of the past, but now, “when history has returned,” it seems to be a possible model for the future situation in Europe.

💬 Gleb Ivashentsov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Korea (2005–2009), RIAC Vice President, stressed that the Russian special operation in Ukraine coincided with the emergence of new tensions around the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula. “In recent years, North Korea has significantly increased its nuclear potential,” he explained, adding that there were statements from the DPRK about the possibility of using nuclear weapons against South Korea in the event of a military confrontation, although Pyongyang had always denied that it would do so before. In Seoul, in turn, the idea has firmly established itself that now North Korea will definitely not give up nuclear weapons.

💬 Andrey Kulik, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Korea, noted that almost seventy years ago, the Korean War took the lives of 2.5 million people, before it escalated into a frozen conflict - but a very peculiar one. On the one hand, the situation on the peninsula has remained generally peaceful all this time. On the other hand, in the 21st century, the DPRK acquired nuclear weapons, which brought the destructive potential of the conflict to a new level. “In recent years, the Russian Federation has made great efforts to find a way out of this situation,” the ambassador said, recalling the road map proposed by Russia in 2017 for the settlement. However, the United States turned towards denuclearisation instead of a comprehensive solution to the problems of the Korean Peninsula, and this only led the situation to a dead end.

💬 Gu Ho Eom, Director of the Asia-Pacific Center, and a professor of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University, suggested that military tensions between North and South Korea would increase. Speaking about the broader international context, the scholar emphasised that inter-Korean relations are now hostage to a new Cold War, in which the United States, China and Russia are involved. Nevertheless, he sees certain prospects for a settlement within the framework of an international approach, and he would consider it useful at the first stage to conclude a so-called low-level nuclear agreement as soon as possible.

💬 Ilya Dyachkov, Associate Professor at the Department of Japanese, Korean, Indonesian and Mongolian Languages, MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry, and RIAC expert, noted that although the situation on the Korean Peninsula has long been characterised by a certain degree of stability, “this stability is acute and rather turbulent.” This is exacerbated by the practical absence of channels for political communication between the parties. “It is imperative to change the interactions in the region, but this is a very difficult task,” he believes. Dyachkov denied linking the dynamics of the DPRK's nuclear missile programme to external factors, pointing out that North Korea intends to continue its nuclear developments in any event, considering them a guarantee of the state's survival.

#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #NorthKorea #ColdWar

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