🌎🪖🌏 We are probably at the starting point of an unfolding crisis, and not close to its end.

A point of balance has not yet been found in the ongoing military campaign. However, it has its own options for development:

1️⃣ In the first scenario, the current Ukrainian government and Russia enter into an agreement that takes into account Russian demands, and these agreements are recognised by the West as part of a European security package deal. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis would give way to a Russian-Western military-political confrontation, akin to the Cold War.

2️⃣ The second scenario assumes the development of events under the influence of the military situation on the ground. As a result, either a balance is inevitably found, or one of the parties prevails. In this case, there are risks that the West will not recognise the results of the deal, and a new Ukrainian government will arise, and be opposed by the government in exile. From the West, there will be a system of support for the Ukrainian underground, similar to the one that existed in the west of Ukraine in the 1950s.

3️⃣ The third scenario involves a sharp escalation of tension between Russia and the West. It is possible that the crisis will spread to the NATO countries or the escalation of the sanctions war against Russia follows in the hope of shaking the foundations of the Russian statehood. In this case, the risks of a nuclear collision will increase. However, so far, we see that Western leaders are distancing themselves from such plans and saying that they will not send NATO forces to this conflict.

Nevertheless, we have repeatedly seen how the West crosses its own “red lines” — it can really happen again, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.

🔗 Strategic Foundations of the Ukrainian Crisis

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #WorldOrder

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

✌️🌐 This in turn helps us define what the left should be, which is actually the intention of its founders: an alliance between the working and poor people of all countries, based on the common needs of all humanity, not just one privileged part of it, and least of all on the racial fantasy that any one part of humanity is born superior to another.

Such a left, in the Western World, hardly exists. It has rotted from within under the Hubristic delusion that so-called “Western Civilization” entitles it to tell everyone else what to do.

Peace calls for a global left, that truly represents the working and poor people of the whole world, recognises all of them as genuine equals, and places their common rights, and their common needs, above those of property-owners and their profits.

Such a left is the only path to peace, Valdai Club expert Alan Freeman writes.

#Norms_and_Values #NATO #Ukraine

@valdai_club