🎥 LIVE: at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting the presentation of the Valdai report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239204

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🗣 On September 9, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted the presentation of its new report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

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🇮🇷 How to Fight Sanctions: The Iranian Experience

On September 9, the Valdai Discussion Club presented the report “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

💬 The discussion was moderated by Ivan Timofeev, the Club’s programme director, who noted that Iran remains one of the key cases for those studying the use of sanctions, and that Iran’s experience is extremely important for Russia. Timofeev emphasised that, while this experience cannot be copied literally, it requires careful, unbiased, and objective study.

💬 Adlan Margoev, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO and a co-author of the report, briefly outlined some of its key points. Margoev analysed Iran’s reaction to the sanctions, noting that Tehran was simultaneously trying to reach an agreement with the initiators and adapt to the terms of the sanctions. According to him, the results of Iran’s attempts to reach an agreement show that sanctions are a “one-way ticket.” Even if at some point it is possible to remove or soften them, it is very difficult to ensure the sustainability of this deal. The analyst noted that Iran, despite colossal sanctions pressure, is coping with its basic needs - and this is certainly a positive experience - but it cannot yet scale this success to the entire economy.

💬 Maxim Baranov, Acting Director of the Second Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that the approach outlined in the report is of interest both from the point of view of assessing the development of modern Iran and from the point of view of survival under sanctions. The diplomat named the need for far-reaching work to create a regulatory framework for combating sanctions. The corresponding declaration signed by Russia and Iran is becoming a basic document for interaction with other countries and can serve as a basis for transferring anti-sanction cooperation from a bilateral to a multilateral format. "Sanctions are not our choice. But we can choose how to fight them," Baranov added.

💬 Kayhan Barzegar, Senior Academic Advisor at the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), acknowledged that sanctions have caused serious difficulties for the Iranian economy, but added that Iran is capable of coping with them and will not collapse under any circumstances. Sanctions put pressure on the Iranian people, especially the middle class, but they cannot alter the country's strategic approaches and priorities. Barzegar noted that Iran is now actively involved in regional politics, using its advantageous geographical location, and this has delivered extremely positive results. The reorientation towards countries in the Global South helps it protect its national interests.

💬 Sumbula Sultanova, Executive Secretary of the Russian-Iranian Business Council, described the Iranian "resistance economy" as a well-coordinated mechanism aimed at maximising the use of internal resources - human, financial and natural - as well as resisting external pressure by creating reserves of necessary goods. Counteracting the sanctions regime falls under the jurisdiction of state institutions. “The timely adjustment of the economy by the state allows Iran to stay afloat again and again,” Sultanova said.

💬 Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Senior Researcher and Head of the Eastern Cultural Centre at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the development of the Iranian economy can be called relatively successful. In her opinion, banking plays a key role in overcoming sanctions. She puts the oil industry in second place. Another important point, according to Ravandi-Fadai, is the development of relations with neighbours, both those under sanctions and those not under sanctions. In addition, she believes it is necessary to take into account the influence of domestic policy, including the creation of free economic zones.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/how-to-fight-sanctions-the-iranian-experience/

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⛔️ On July 22, Hungary, already holding the EU presidency, together with the other 26 member states of the bloc, unanimously extended the sectoral sanctions against Russia until January 31, 2025,  and also supported all other decisions of the EU Council on sanctions against Russia. 

But if Trump wins the election and after his inauguration cancels Biden’s Order 14024, Hungary may quite openly follow the same path and vote against another extension of one of the anti-Russian sanctions packages.

Sergey Glandin addresses the issue of legal tools for lifting or easing anti-Russian sanctions available to the US President and Viktor Orban, who will chair the European Council until the end of 2024.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/if-trump-returns-to-the-white-house/

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⛔️ Why do countries that initiate sanctions reduce them? How long-term and sustainable is such a process?

Too often sanctions drag on for years or decades. This makes the experience of China, which managed to lift most US sanctions, even more interesting. The process has dragged on for more than a quarter of a century, and in recent years, Washington has once again increased pressure on Beijing.

However, China’s example helps shed light on the possible motives for easing sanctions or lifting them that the US has been guided by and may be guided by in the future. Three such motives can be identified.

1️⃣ The first is to reduce sanctions in order to get closer to the target country in the interest of breaking up coalitions with its participation or containing a more significant rival.

2️⃣ The second is to obtain economic advantages in the event of favourable political opportunities.

3️⃣ The third is an attempt to “socialise” the target country, to integrate it into the system of bilateral and multilateral relations in order to create an economic foundation for political dialogue.

Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, writes on these motives in the context of US-Chinese relations.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/lifting-sanctions-the-chinese-option/

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