Valdai Discussion Club
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 Which Is the Revisionist Power, the US or China?

A central premise of the Biden foreign-policy team is that China is trying to challenge the status quo, which is defined as US primacy in the world system.

China is seen as a rising power with a huge grudge against the existing international system. 

There’s no question that the US, rather than China, is a leading revisionist power today, because the Washington establishment of both political parties is trapped in another wave of panic: the morbid fear of a US decline. Americans are always obsessed with declinism. Declinism is a business that never declines, writes Valdai Club expert Xiang Lanxin.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/panic-of-decline-which-is-the-revisionist-power/
🌍 Interpreting the Middle East renaissance can be understood as an element of the region’s internal development rooted in a growing concern over a desire to rethink historical inheritance in Middle Eastern societies.

The Middle East, which for a long time was looked upon exclusively as the object of foreign influence and a periphery of the world order, has turned overnight into a source of new trends in global development – not just a laboratory of global politics but a trendsetter.

👉 Read the Valdai Club's report "The Middle East in Search for Lost Awakening" — https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/the-middle-east-in-search-for-lost-awakening/
🎻🌐 Amid the clamour about the return of great power politics and the crisis of international order, there has been much talk about the establishment of some sort of new concert of powers. The idea is attractive for at least three reasons.

1️⃣ First, it suggests the restoration of managerial capacity to international affairs. The last few years have been characterized by a palpable sense of drift, mostly towards the worse.

2️⃣ Second, it would provide a forum for the great powers to meet as relative equals. There would be no room for hegemony here.

3️⃣ Finally, it would represent a normative shift away from liberal idealism towards a more pragmatic realist approach to international affairs, treating states as they are rather than what they should be (from certain normative perspectives). This would allow deals to be made on the basis of respect for national interests.

The Yalta-Helsinki international system is far from perfect, but rather than further undermining it through ad hoc arrangements of one sort or another, effort should be more profitably directed at devising improved ways of combining sovereignty with more effective and progressive forms of internationalism; a new synthesis adequate to meet the challenges of our times while recognising the changed balance of power in the state system, writes Valdai Club expert Richard Sakwa.

#Global_Governance

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a-new-concert-of-powers-another-substitution/
💉🌐 Countries around the world are placing high hopes on the new COVID-19 vaccines in their joint efforts to fight the COVID-19 epidemic, while continuing to face “deficits” in vaccine production capacity and global distribution issues.

As a developing country, China has offered to provide its vaccines as public goods to the rest of the world, particularly to people from less developed countries, emphasising the concept of building a global health community for mankind, write Wang Yiwei & Chen Chao.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/vaccine-race-the-implications-for-the-world/
⚡️🌐 Not Cold and Not War

In addition to the ongoing drama of the coronavirus pandemic, the emotional state of modern relations between Russia and China on the one side, and the United States, on the other, is now the main informational and eventful background of international politics.

The fact that right now events are acquiring such a dynamic character, and the United States is becoming the main source of this dynamic provocative behaviour, is quite understandable. The international reality that everyone became used to over the past 30 years was based on one-power domination, which was not authoritarian and therefore created opportunities for the continuation of relatively acceptable world politics for all. We hardly need to be surprised that the destruction of this order has evoked such intense passions and resulted in government decisions that convey a sense of the catastrophic nature of what is happening.

Now the erosion of the Liberal World Order — which was based on US leadership in almost all areas — has reached the stage where the main features of the outgoing era are being destroyed.

The United States still acts from the position of the most significant participant in international communication, but at the same time, it operates in conditions where the restoration of the previous order is impossible. The countless sanctions against Russia or China are only a confirmation that the return of leadership for the United States is already no longer within the realm of realpolitik. The result of such chaotic actions has only been an even greater destabilisation of international politics and the paralysis of institutions.

👉 The global ideological confrontation between the two most powerful powers will finally become part of our historical experience, and attempts to reproduce it will be replaced by a balance of power in its classical understanding: ever-changing and never stable, but still the only relatively long-term international order, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/not-cold-and-not-war/
🇷🇺🇹🇷 Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club Fyodor Lukyanov @ru_global took part in an online discussion on Russian-Turkish relations.

The discussion, titled "Cooperative Competition or Competitive Cooperation? Russian-Turkish Relations Today" was organized by The Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), Greece, and took place on May, 5.

🔗 The video of the discussion is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf7uA1fFJXE
🇩🇪 More than 30 years after the reunification of Germany, millions of people have practically no basic knowledge about the GDR chapter of German history.

For this very reason, it should not be surprising why so many people in East Germany still feel that they’re misunderstood, and are considered only as victims of the dictatorship, writes Matthias Uhl, Research Fellow at Deutsches Historisches Institut, Moscow.

#Morality_and_Law

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-influence-of-the-gdr/
📆 COMING SOON: On May 20-21, 2021, the city of Kazan will host the Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, titled “Russia and Central Asia Facing the Challenges of the New World — A Joint Path to the Future.”

🌐 More than 60 experts from 12 countries will take part in the Central Asian conference. The President of the Republic of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, will address the event’s participants with a welcome speech.

💡 The opening of the conference, the first session, as well as the final session - an open discussion - will be broadcast on the Club's website.

The Program of the Conference is available at https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/programme-of-the-valdai-club-central-asian-conference/

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to be accredited for the event, fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763. Accreditation is open until 3:00 pm Moscow time on May 19.

📷 © Sputnik/Maxim Bogdovid
⚔️ After years of rapid growth in exports, the arms market has stabilised; the largest increase in arms imports was observed in the Middle East.

We created an infographic on world arms trade in 2020.

👉 The high-res infographic is available at https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics/world-arms-trade-in-2020/
🗽🌐 The Biden administration is presenting the United States once again as a champion of democracy, and eager to lead an alliance of other democratic nations.

This is a reversal of President Trump’s stated lack of concern with other nations’ political systems and his open embrace of dictators and would-be strongmen. Biden is drawing on a long tradition of mixing genuine democratic idealism with propagandistic efforts to distinguish the US from its geopolitical rivals.

Unfortunately, the US has a long history of suppressing democracy when elected governments don’t adopt the pro-capitalist policies the US demands of other countries.

A real democratic alliance would begin by committing its members to first do no harm.

Stop encouraging or even acquiescing in coups or lesser anti-democratic actions by governments it supports financially, diplomatically, or militarily.

Stop trying to bend politics in other countries to install governments that serve the interests of foreign corporations rather than their own people.

Stop trying to interfere in elections in other countries with financial support for parties, propaganda, or advisors, Valdai Club expert Richard Lachmann writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-should-we-judge-america-s-proposed-alliance/
🗽🌐 Biden's foreign policy: expectations vs. reality

Many pinned their hopes on the election of Joe Biden to the presidency of the United States. Often there was a belief that the mainstream political veteran would “correct” what the “amateur” Donald Trump had done.

However, a rather comical picture of the political continuity of the Biden team, which so vehemently criticised his predecessor, is emerging, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Yermakov.

#Russia_and_Global_Security_Risks

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/expectations-and-reality-of-the-biden/
🦠🇪🇺 The European Union’s attempt to counteract the pandemic can be reduced to three aspects: healthcare, freedom of movement and the economy.

The decisive factor in the stress for unity and the subsequent speed and quality of the reaction of the European Union has been the distribution of competences between the supranational and national levels. The greatest controversy has arisen with respect to medical care, where all powers belong to the member states, writes Valdai Club expert Tatiana Romanova.

#Conflict_and_Leadership

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/covid-19-pandemic-as-a-stress-for-the-EU-unity/
🦠🌐 The development of the latest coronavirus vaccines has generated unprecedented optimism around the world.

The news revived the global economy, created millions of new jobs, and stock indices rose to record levels.

The current situation underscores the danger of ignoring our interdependence and the critical importance of global cooperation. This shows us that all humanity is in the same boat.

Is the emergence of new vaccines a panacea for all problems?
How justified is such optimism today?

Since a virus can be defeated somewhere only when it is defeated everywhere, this shows that it is absurd to pretend that we can achieve security in isolation, within a particular country, nation, culture, religion or class, writes Valdai Club expert Djoomart Otorbaev.

#Morality_and_Law

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/coronavirus-pandemic-new-challenges-of-2021/
⚙️🌐 Many people see information and communication technologies (ICT) as ephemeral elements used to develop a virtual world through the integration of processes underway in real life.

It takes a great deal to ensure that a computer network serves the interests of the state and private business, households and individuals.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of giant IT platforms, such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Twitter. In 2020, their power, measured in terms of the number of users, the price of their shares and brands, as well as their ability to influence global and national political processes, peaked.

There is consensus that the Big Tech companies have become a threat to democracy even in the most developed countries, but there is yet no consensus on how to respond to this threat.

It is impossible to create a common global ICT network without political will clearly expressed by the main international actors.

This survey of technological platforms, and the political and economic effects of their development, implies a specialised approach to technological platforms, depending on the specific features of this forward-looking sector of research, which directly influence the political and socioeconomic aspects of the life of every individual.

📌 A new Valdai Club report "Russia and the Competition of Technological Platforms: the Political Economy of the ICT Market" is available on our website. You can also download it in PDF.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/russia-and-the-competition-of-technological/
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🧩 In the mid-20th century, nation states from the same region began to unite into organisations due to their interdependence.

Such associations began to be called regional organisations. The most complex and numerous regional associations are formed in the economic sphere. However, countries are uniting on other issues as well.

👉 To learn more about the benefits and challenges of regional organisations, see our videoinfographic.
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳 Twenty years ago, the American government believed that terrorism would be the key enemy, ten years ago the Obama administration pointed out that technological threats and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction would be the key challenges.

But now, the American establishment has returned to the idea that the main threats come from nation states, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov

#Conflict_and_Leadership

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-us-intelligence-community-views-rivalry-with-r/
🇷🇺🌏 The factors that determine the nature of interaction between Russia and the Central Asian states include their shared geopolitical position.

The border between Russia and Central Asia is a steppe that does not have natural obstacles. Its openness and its unsuitability for marking clear dividing lines is naturally transferred to the spheres of political, economic and cultural interaction across state borders. 

Russia is no longer likely to strive to take full responsibility on its own — a condition for this would be the total return of Central Asia to the imperial order controlled by Moscow, and there are no conditions for this, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. Therefore, in the future, Russia will rely on the independent capabilities of regional states and interaction with China, which is no less interested in its internal stability than Moscow. 

📌 On May 20-21, 2021, the city of Kazan will host the Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, titled “Russia and Central Asia Facing the Challenges of the New World — A Joint Path to the Future.”

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-and-central-asia-between-pragmatism/
🗽🌏🐉 The countries of Central Asia, in their foreign policy, are trying to maintain neutrality regarding the Russia-China-USA triangle.

They consistently participate in all regional projects proposed by the superpowers: the Russian Eurasian Economic Union, the Chinese Belt and Road project and the US project C5+1. However, with each passing day, the projects of the global players follow a trajectory leading them towards more conflict, leaving the Central Asian countries facing a difficult choice.

For the Central Asia states, many of which share a border with China, the most difficult issue is how to skilfully manoeuver between Beijing and Washington in order to continue economic development under powerful propagandist and economic pressure from both sides.

Meanwhile, the position of Moscow remains vague, but it will most likely prefer to play its own game, hoping to win dividends by diverting the “fire” to China, writes Adil Kaukenov, Director of the Centre for Chinese Studies (Kazakhstan). 

👉 The author is a speaker of the second session of the Valdai Club Central Asian Conference, titled “Russia and Central Asia Facing the Challenges of the New World — A Joint Path to the Future.”

#Global_Governance

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/geopolitical-collisions-of-the-belt-and-road/