🌍 Since the year 2020, eight governments in francophone Africa have been overthrown by the military, adding up to a disturbing trend of coups in the continent.

To put it into context, since the 1950s there has been a total of 486 coup attempts; 214 of these attempted coups have taken place in Africa, out of which 106 have been successful.

Beyond the statistics, however, two questions often emerge with regards to the coups.

1️⃣The first question is whether these coups are a result of internal failures, especially of governance institutions within these countries, or a consequence of an international system that is increasingly becoming illiberal. Perhaps even more disturbing is whether these coups are as a result of both internal and external factors.

2️⃣ The second question is whether these coups are capable of providing solutions to the challenges facing the people in the countries where they have been carried out. The justification for this question stems from the pronouncements of coup leaders themselves. There is no doubt that anyone or any institution that promises to rapidly address these problems is likely to get the support of the people.

The recent coups in West Africa are not likely to spread beyond the region, given their unique historical and foreign relations. It, however, finds that should the new governments fail to urgently fulfil their promises, the search for alternative leadership is likely to commence, Israel Nyaburi Nyadera writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/hope-amidst-uncertainty-reflections/

#Norms_and_Values #coups #Africa

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🇦🇷 Libertarian economist Javier Milei's victory in Argentina has had a significant impact on at least two major issues in Latin America:

🔹 a new geopolitical realignment in the region that could have repercussions on the world stage,

🔹 and the relative rise of the United States and the old power core of the Global North, striving, one way or another, to stop the inevitable fall of their hegemony within the framework of current historical and spatial changes in the world order.

Milei may be aligned with Washington on ideological grounds. This is beneficial for the United States for four reasons:

1️⃣ It helps revive the Monroe Doctrine. December 2, 2023 marked the bicentennial anniversary of this American strategy, the goal of which is to dominate the Americas, appropriate its resources and oust any potential foreign rival (today this means China).

2️⃣ It weakens Brazil’s leftist president, Lula da Silva. A friendly government in Argentina would be a great relief to the leader of the Workers' Party. Moreover, against the backdrop of the hegemonic struggle between powers in the modern world, it would be extremely beneficial for Brazil and Argentina to be on the same page in order for them to coordinate policies with respect to trade, investment, world prices, as well as guaranteeing certain principles of autonomy and sovereignty in international platforms.

3️⃣ It reorganizes the balance of power in the region. Until December 9, 2023, the four most influential and economically significant countries in South America—Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Venezuela—were led by leftist governments. Argentina has made a 180-degree turn, aligning with the libertarian right.

4️⃣ Argentina lost a great opportunity to join BRICS+ on January 1, 2024, an organisation that marks a certain strengthening of the positions of regional forces and represents a serious opportunity for the redistribution of world power. Such defections harm not only Argentina, but also the BRICS+ project itself.

It will soon become clear what results Milei's new foreign policy will lead to, writes Telma Luzzani.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/argentina-perestroika-under-the-new-government/

#Norms_and_Values #Argentina #UnitedStates

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🗣 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣3️⃣ The year 2023 has shown that Greater Eurasia and Asia are, so far, resistant to negative external influences, which have had the most dramatic consequences in Europe and the Middle East.

There are no opposing military-political alliances in Asia and Eurasia, and the so-called “geopolitical fault lines” only exist in the imagination of especially impressible readers of American newspapers. This is due to peculiarities of the political culture there, but also to the general trends of international life at the present stage.

1️⃣ First, despite the fact that this macroregion has its own experience of severe interstate confrontation, turning to violent conflict as the go-to means of achieving goals is not a central part of the foreign policy culture here.

In other words, when the peoples of the West take arms and see conflict as the solution to difficult situations, the peaceful resolution of disputes is preferable for Asia and Eurasia.

2️⃣ Second, the associations of states emerging in Asia and Eurasia are not aimed at achieving aggressive goals in relation to third countries. They are primarily aimed at implementing the development goals of their members and maintaining their internal stability. Therefore, now in Asia and Eurasia there are no unions created to ensure a privileged position for their members in relation to the rest of the macroregion.

3️⃣ Third, within the macroregion there are no relatively large states that would act as “agents” of extra-regional actors. The only countries that may be an exception in this sense are Japan and South Korea.

Asia and Eurasia remain a space of cooperation, not competition, and the leading regional powers are able to achieve terms that would be comparatively fair for their smaller partners, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/asia-and-eurasia-in-2023-shaping-a-new-internation/

#valdai_year2023 #Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #Asia

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2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣4️⃣ Dear Friends! We are happy to announce new Valdai Club Programmes for 2024:

🗣 Global Alternatives // Programme Director — Oleg Barabanov

#GlobalAlternatives

🗣 Wider Eurasia // Programme Director — Timofei Bordachev

#WiderEurasia

🗣 Multipolarity and Connectivity // Programme Director — Ivan Timofeev

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity

🗣 The Return of Diplomacy? // Programme Director — Andrey Sushentsov

#Return_of_Diplomacy

Follow this link to find out more about the Programmes: https://valdaiclub.com/programmes/

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⚔️ The key participants in the Ukrainian crisis — the USA, the EU, Ukraine and Russia — are now convinced that the conflict will be protracted and that struggle for initiative will be the dominant factor.

Russian actions such as the strengthening of the armed forces and military production, effectively redirecting foreign trade to the East, and developing relations with China and otherp allies indicate a readiness to “play the long game.”

The fundamental difference between the current situation and how things stood at the beginning of the Special Military Operation is that previously, Ukraine had the opportunity to be a subject of negotiations, but today it is no longer such, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-palestine-taiwan-key-tension-in-2024

#Return_of_Diplomacy #militaryconflict #WorldOrder

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⛔️ What will the sanctions policy against Russia be in 2024? Is it possible to predict the priorities of such a policy? Yes, it is quite easy.

We will see the further expansion of blocking and trade sanctions, as well as the development of mechanisms for the confiscation of Russian assets. More importantly, we will see systematic attempts to force businesses from third countries to refuse to cooperate with Russia, especially in the field of industrial supplies and technological cooperation. These are the three areas, which allow us to deduce the base-case scenario of anti-Russian sanctions in 2024.

Key decisions on sanctions in 2024 are already embedded in current political decisions, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev. 

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/is-it-possible-to-predict-sanctions-for-2024-yes

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🎥 Africa’s Potential

By the late 19th century, European powers had completed the colonial division of Africa getting access to the continent’s resources. Most African countries only gained independence in the mid-20th century. At the same time, the list of important resources that this continent possesses has only increased over the past decades, and European industry largely depends on them. For more information on Africa’s potential, watch our video infographic.

#valdai_infogaphics #Africa

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🗺️ In 2023, many of us finally realized that the collapse of the past international order wasn’t a disaster, and contains far more positive things for the development of the whole world.

Among signs of a new international order, several of the most important features can be seen.

1️⃣ First, the emergence of democratic multipolarity, symbolized by the BRICS association.

2️⃣ Second, the gradual erosion of the monopoly of a narrow group of states in various sectors of the world economy.

3️⃣ Third, the revival of foreign policy activity of the majority of countries, which we define as the World Majority.

The World Majority countries do not set themselves the task of breaking the existing international order and destroying globalisation. However, they are gradually increasing the degree of their independence in determining foreign policy decisions and economic partnerships, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/signs-of-a-new-international-order

#WiderEurasia #geopolitics #NewWorldOrder

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🇮🇳🇷🇺 Reminder: The first Valdai Club Russia-India conference, organised jointly with the Club’s partner, the Vivekananda Foundation, will be held on January 8 in New Delhi. 

The one-day programme will include an open discussion, a meeting with representatives of the National Security Advisory Council, an opening session and two thematic sessions, at which experts will discuss the following issues:

🔹 Trends in the transformation of the world order (multipolarity, regional and international security, sanctions);
🔹 Bilateral relations between Russia and India.

🎥 Watch the live broadcast of the public talk on our website on January 8 at 12:00 (Moscow time).

Working languages: English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: Dear journalists, to be accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website. If you have any questions about the event, call +79269307763. 

Links to the live broadcast of the open sessions will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen.

#Valdai_ThinkTank #India

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