🛢🏰 Summertime, and the living usually gets easy in the gas business: demand is down, and prices decline. Not this summer in Europe, though.
Since the beginning of June 2022, European gas prices spiked 70 percent, to $1,600 per thousand m3, the level almost seven times higher than a year ago. The key reason is the reduced flows of Russian gas to Europe: instead of “normal” 300 million m3/day they dropped to about 70 million m3/day.
This has tightened Europe’s gas balance and led to gas withdrawals from storage (instead of the normal practice of pumping gas into storage during summer), putting the program of refilling the European gas storage facilities before the next heating season in jeopardy.
If Europe and Canada are unable to find a face-saving compromise to deal with the sanctions mess over gas turbines now, by November Germany’s choice might become even more embarrassing: to let Nord Stream 2 flow or risk a full-blown gas crisis and super-high prices in the midst of winter, writes Valdai Club expert Vitaly Yermakov.
#EconomicStatecraft #Europe #sanctions #gas
@valdai_club
Since the beginning of June 2022, European gas prices spiked 70 percent, to $1,600 per thousand m3, the level almost seven times higher than a year ago. The key reason is the reduced flows of Russian gas to Europe: instead of “normal” 300 million m3/day they dropped to about 70 million m3/day.
This has tightened Europe’s gas balance and led to gas withdrawals from storage (instead of the normal practice of pumping gas into storage during summer), putting the program of refilling the European gas storage facilities before the next heating season in jeopardy.
If Europe and Canada are unable to find a face-saving compromise to deal with the sanctions mess over gas turbines now, by November Germany’s choice might become even more embarrassing: to let Nord Stream 2 flow or risk a full-blown gas crisis and super-high prices in the midst of winter, writes Valdai Club expert Vitaly Yermakov.
#EconomicStatecraft #Europe #sanctions #gas
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Friendly Fire: Sanctions Against Gazprom Trigger Another Gas Crisis in Europe
If Europe and Canada are unable to find a face-saving compromise to deal with the sanctions mess over gas turbines now, by November Germany’s choice might become even more embarrassing: to let Nord Stream 2 flow or risk a full-blown gas crisis and super-high…
📍🚧 As a transportation industry, gas pipelines play a critical role within major economic regions: the US, China, the European Union and Russia.
The rest of the world is mainly connected with liquefied natural gas (LNG). It’s true that LNG produces 25 percent more greenhouse gas emissions, but only the Greens care about that.
The sustainable operation of large pipelines requires reliable pipes, compressors (turbines), a warranty service, freedom of use, insurance, and much more, as contracts require it, or rather, the need for supplies. Conflicts over freedom of pumping between distant partners, non-contractual gas off-take, or uncertainty regarding the reliability of equipment can make the use of pipelines risky for the industrial or domestic needs of importing countries.
Russian pipelines have worked for a very long time and reliably. The EU's decision to halt pipeline gas supplies in the foreseeable future suggests a transitional period, during which both sides create a clear and enforceable relationship structure. Something similar is likely to work in the future for grain, fertilizer and other critical Russian exports.
In this context, the disputes in the summer of 2022 regarding the repair and delivery of a Siemens turbine from Canada for Nord Stream 2 are not so much a technical issue but a legal and economic one this would be a pilot project for the coming years.
The EU's intention to reduce overall gas consumption by 15 percent by March 2023 is probably feasible, but only if there is moderately cold winter, writes Leonid Grigoryev, a tenured professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
#ModernDiplomacy #Europe #gas
@valdaiclub
The rest of the world is mainly connected with liquefied natural gas (LNG). It’s true that LNG produces 25 percent more greenhouse gas emissions, but only the Greens care about that.
The sustainable operation of large pipelines requires reliable pipes, compressors (turbines), a warranty service, freedom of use, insurance, and much more, as contracts require it, or rather, the need for supplies. Conflicts over freedom of pumping between distant partners, non-contractual gas off-take, or uncertainty regarding the reliability of equipment can make the use of pipelines risky for the industrial or domestic needs of importing countries.
Russian pipelines have worked for a very long time and reliably. The EU's decision to halt pipeline gas supplies in the foreseeable future suggests a transitional period, during which both sides create a clear and enforceable relationship structure. Something similar is likely to work in the future for grain, fertilizer and other critical Russian exports.
In this context, the disputes in the summer of 2022 regarding the repair and delivery of a Siemens turbine from Canada for Nord Stream 2 are not so much a technical issue but a legal and economic one this would be a pilot project for the coming years.
The EU's intention to reduce overall gas consumption by 15 percent by March 2023 is probably feasible, but only if there is moderately cold winter, writes Leonid Grigoryev, a tenured professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
#ModernDiplomacy #Europe #gas
@valdaiclub
Valdai Club
Europe Contemplates the End of the Golden Age of Pipelines
Apparently, computer models show the continental balance of gas in the EU for the winter, taking into account the reduction in demand. In real life, everything is somewhat more complicated. The EU's intention to reduce overall gas consumption by 15 percent…
🧣🏰 “War is coming back to Europe” is the new mantra. However, war didn’t come back just because of Ukraine.
There have been previous winters of war in Europe, linked to the bloody disaggregation of Yugoslavia. However, war in Ukraine, with all its geopolitical consequences, is a true game changer.
The sanctions taken against Russia by EU countries are generating a major “boomerang effect,” one which could lead to a global energy crisis. The shock will probably be felt by the EU economy this winter and afterwards.
It is therefore at this time that crucial political questions will arise regarding the expediency of the EU countries’ policy towards Russia, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.
#Norms_and_Values #Europe #geopolitics #gas
@valdai_club
There have been previous winters of war in Europe, linked to the bloody disaggregation of Yugoslavia. However, war in Ukraine, with all its geopolitical consequences, is a true game changer.
The sanctions taken against Russia by EU countries are generating a major “boomerang effect,” one which could lead to a global energy crisis. The shock will probably be felt by the EU economy this winter and afterwards.
It is therefore at this time that crucial political questions will arise regarding the expediency of the EU countries’ policy towards Russia, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.
#Norms_and_Values #Europe #geopolitics #gas
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Winter Is Coming: Social Expectations from the First Military Winter in Europe
The sanctions taken against Russia by EU countries are generating a major “boomerang effect,” one which could lead to a global energy crisis. The shock will probably be felt by the EU economy this winter and afterwards. It is therefore at this time that crucial…
🌎⚔️🌏 The circle of participants in the Ukrainian crisis includes six groups of players pursuing different political goals. They are:
▪️The United States
▪️The countries of the so-called “New Europe” (Britain, Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovakia)
▪️The countries of Western Europe (Italy, France, Germany)
▪️The union state of Russia and Belarus
▪️A group of Western countries, which we call “gateways” (Turkey and Hungary)
▪️Ukraine itself
In view of the “vacation from strategic thinking” taken by the elites of these countries several decades ago, they met the first weeks of the crisis with a lot of confusion.
As a result, the countries of Western Europe actually delegated goal-setting in the outbreak of the crisis to the United States, the countries of New Europe and Britain.
The autumn of 2022 allows us to sum up the efficiency of the strategy of each group of actors in the unfolding crisis.
🔹 The countries of “New Europe” have managed to get the United States actively immersed into European affairs. They have also achieved an internal political consolidation of their governments to embrace anti-Russian politics, which partially compensates for the dissatisfaction of the population over the fall in living standards. The failures of the “New Europe” include deep economic, social and migration crises — how they will compensate for it is not yet obvious.
🔹 The strategic successes of Western European countries are not obvious. Berlin, Paris, and Rome are facing unprecedented economic and energy crises, runaway inflation, and the risks of political destabilisation amid failed economic policies. These risks have been significantly exacerbated due to the fact that citizens actually pay for the prolongation of the crisis using their own money. There is a loss of initiative in “Old Europe” in the development of the crisis, which has been intercepted by the United States and “New Europe”.
🔹 The “gateway countries” — Hungary and Turkey — have acted more successfully. They have increased their autonomy from Washington and Brussels, and also offer themselves as platforms for diplomatic negotiations following the conflict, which enhances their international political weight. They didn’t pursue their course without risks: external pressure from the allies is increasing against them in order to “bring Ankara and Budapest back to the right line.”
Today we are witnessing a transition to the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis. The transition of the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West to 2023 seems highly probable, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #Europe
@valdai_club
▪️The United States
▪️The countries of the so-called “New Europe” (Britain, Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovakia)
▪️The countries of Western Europe (Italy, France, Germany)
▪️The union state of Russia and Belarus
▪️A group of Western countries, which we call “gateways” (Turkey and Hungary)
▪️Ukraine itself
In view of the “vacation from strategic thinking” taken by the elites of these countries several decades ago, they met the first weeks of the crisis with a lot of confusion.
As a result, the countries of Western Europe actually delegated goal-setting in the outbreak of the crisis to the United States, the countries of New Europe and Britain.
The autumn of 2022 allows us to sum up the efficiency of the strategy of each group of actors in the unfolding crisis.
🔹 The countries of “New Europe” have managed to get the United States actively immersed into European affairs. They have also achieved an internal political consolidation of their governments to embrace anti-Russian politics, which partially compensates for the dissatisfaction of the population over the fall in living standards. The failures of the “New Europe” include deep economic, social and migration crises — how they will compensate for it is not yet obvious.
🔹 The strategic successes of Western European countries are not obvious. Berlin, Paris, and Rome are facing unprecedented economic and energy crises, runaway inflation, and the risks of political destabilisation amid failed economic policies. These risks have been significantly exacerbated due to the fact that citizens actually pay for the prolongation of the crisis using their own money. There is a loss of initiative in “Old Europe” in the development of the crisis, which has been intercepted by the United States and “New Europe”.
🔹 The “gateway countries” — Hungary and Turkey — have acted more successfully. They have increased their autonomy from Washington and Brussels, and also offer themselves as platforms for diplomatic negotiations following the conflict, which enhances their international political weight. They didn’t pursue their course without risks: external pressure from the allies is increasing against them in order to “bring Ankara and Budapest back to the right line.”
Today we are witnessing a transition to the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis. The transition of the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West to 2023 seems highly probable, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #Europe
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
The Political Situation in Europe
Today we are witnessing a transition to the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis. Russia’s determination to win is very significant. Despite the exhaustion of Ukraine’s own resources, Western support is not weakening. This makes the transition of the military…
🇨🇳🇪🇺 The “star” of the “16+1” format as a mechanism for China’s cooperation with the CEE countries rose rapidly: in 2012, 11 EU countries joined it (Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania) plus five Balkan states. Greece joined in 2018-2019. By this time, all countries in the group had also signed Memorandums of Understanding with China on cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.
In the late 2010s relations between Brussels and Beijing, on the contrary, had started to worsen. The structure began to be rapidly politicised by the EU as a “Trojan horse” and an expression of China’s “divide and rule” policy.
As a result, Lithuania left the group in May 2021, followed by Latvia and Estonia in August 2022. Even though there may be no further decisive steps on the part of the remaining 14 players, cooperation is practically frozen.
Naturally, several questions arise: What was it all about? Was it that dangerous? What does this mean for contemporary relations between the EU and China? Writes Valdai Club expert Julia Melnikova.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/china-and-europe-what-was-it-the-rise-and-crumblin/
#EconomicStatecraft #China #Europe
@valdai_club
In the late 2010s relations between Brussels and Beijing, on the contrary, had started to worsen. The structure began to be rapidly politicised by the EU as a “Trojan horse” and an expression of China’s “divide and rule” policy.
As a result, Lithuania left the group in May 2021, followed by Latvia and Estonia in August 2022. Even though there may be no further decisive steps on the part of the remaining 14 players, cooperation is practically frozen.
Naturally, several questions arise: What was it all about? Was it that dangerous? What does this mean for contemporary relations between the EU and China? Writes Valdai Club expert Julia Melnikova.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/china-and-europe-what-was-it-the-rise-and-crumblin/
#EconomicStatecraft #China #Europe
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
China and Europe: What Was It? The Rise and Crumbling of the '16+1' Format
In retrospect, the first half of the 2010s was one of the most productive periods in the development of European-Chinese relations. At the time, the European Union was looking for new growth points, having felt the opportunity and ability to diversify external…
🇪🇺 Dangerous, short-sighted, immature foreign policy initiatives are now at the centre of the EU agenda.
Many observers are puzzled about what guides the countries of Europe amid the current European security crisis, the largest in 80 years.
🔹 Many of the decisions being made by the EU national governments seem reckless and counterproductive, leading to the threshold of nuclear escalation.
🔹 Europe has neglected its own economic interests and put an end to centuries of economic cooperation with Russia.
🔹 It seems that the political strategy of the EU is dominated not by calculation, but by the slogans that guide the leaders of Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries. The voices of the more prudent countries in Western Europe are muffled.
This trajectory would be rational if the calculation of the collective West to defeat Russia had some chance of success – but since it doesn’t, now many in the EU are perplexed over how to get out of the impasse.
A scenario is likely, in which the United States, seeing that Western Europe will no longer come to its senses after a lethargic sleep and "holidays" from strategic thinking, will bet on developing its presence in Eastern Europe, strengthening Polish plans to create the Intermarium project – to create an antagonist to Russia in the space between the Baltic and Black Seas. This will form a very special strategic situation in Europe, writes Valdai Club programme director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/children-s-crusade-europe-s-strategy
#ModernDiplomacy #EU #Europe
🗣 🗣 🗣
Many observers are puzzled about what guides the countries of Europe amid the current European security crisis, the largest in 80 years.
🔹 Many of the decisions being made by the EU national governments seem reckless and counterproductive, leading to the threshold of nuclear escalation.
🔹 Europe has neglected its own economic interests and put an end to centuries of economic cooperation with Russia.
🔹 It seems that the political strategy of the EU is dominated not by calculation, but by the slogans that guide the leaders of Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries. The voices of the more prudent countries in Western Europe are muffled.
This trajectory would be rational if the calculation of the collective West to defeat Russia had some chance of success – but since it doesn’t, now many in the EU are perplexed over how to get out of the impasse.
A scenario is likely, in which the United States, seeing that Western Europe will no longer come to its senses after a lethargic sleep and "holidays" from strategic thinking, will bet on developing its presence in Eastern Europe, strengthening Polish plans to create the Intermarium project – to create an antagonist to Russia in the space between the Baltic and Black Seas. This will form a very special strategic situation in Europe, writes Valdai Club programme director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/children-s-crusade-europe-s-strategy
#ModernDiplomacy #EU #Europe
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Valdai Club
Children's Crusade: Europe's Strategy in the Ukrainian Crisis
Many observers are puzzled about what guides the countries of Europe amid the current European security crisis, the largest in 80 years. Many of the decisions being made by the EU national governments seem reckless and counterproductive, leading to the threshold…
🏰 The Ukrainian crisis has given birth to new strategic constants.
Along with the degradation of the unipolar world order, the conflict has painted a picture of a new balance of power in Europe, which escapes the analysis of Western experts.
The Ukrainian crisis has led to a situation where the voice of the Eastern European countries and, in particular, Poland, is beginning to determine European foreign policy interests. This state of affairs is unique in modern history.
Many historians have always positioned Eastern Europe at the “crossroads” of Europe; it is portrayed as the constant battlefield for rival empires. Today, Eastern European countries are not only acquiring strategic agency, but are also coming to the forefront of European politics.
The immediate task of Warsaw is to become the main European militarist, and to create a large military counterweight against Russia on Polish territory in case Ukraine is defeated. Poland is creating points of tension for Russia along the entire perimeter of its borders: military exercises on the border with the Kaliningrad region, and manoeuvres near the borders of Belarus. All of this shows that Warsaw is striving to seize the strategic initiative in the European Union and could potentially become its main actor if the conflict extends beyond the territory of Ukraine.
The West in its “Eastern European edition” seeks to reduce the opportunities for Russia and Belarus to act together in the developing crisis.
The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is a joint step by Moscow and Minsk, which is of a deterrent nature and should deprive Warsaw of any illusions about Russia’s lack of determination to maintain a balance of threats.
It is possible that in the future, the current crisis with the West will begin to resemble the mature years of the Cold War with its system of mutual military deterrence, writes Valdai Club Programme Director🗣 Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/wag-the-dog/
#ModernDiplomacy #Europe
@valdai_club
Along with the degradation of the unipolar world order, the conflict has painted a picture of a new balance of power in Europe, which escapes the analysis of Western experts.
The Ukrainian crisis has led to a situation where the voice of the Eastern European countries and, in particular, Poland, is beginning to determine European foreign policy interests. This state of affairs is unique in modern history.
Many historians have always positioned Eastern Europe at the “crossroads” of Europe; it is portrayed as the constant battlefield for rival empires. Today, Eastern European countries are not only acquiring strategic agency, but are also coming to the forefront of European politics.
The immediate task of Warsaw is to become the main European militarist, and to create a large military counterweight against Russia on Polish territory in case Ukraine is defeated. Poland is creating points of tension for Russia along the entire perimeter of its borders: military exercises on the border with the Kaliningrad region, and manoeuvres near the borders of Belarus. All of this shows that Warsaw is striving to seize the strategic initiative in the European Union and could potentially become its main actor if the conflict extends beyond the territory of Ukraine.
The West in its “Eastern European edition” seeks to reduce the opportunities for Russia and Belarus to act together in the developing crisis.
The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is a joint step by Moscow and Minsk, which is of a deterrent nature and should deprive Warsaw of any illusions about Russia’s lack of determination to maintain a balance of threats.
It is possible that in the future, the current crisis with the West will begin to resemble the mature years of the Cold War with its system of mutual military deterrence, writes Valdai Club Programme Director
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/wag-the-dog/
#ModernDiplomacy #Europe
@valdai_club
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Valdai Club
How Eastern Europe Came to Dominate the EU Narrative
The Ukrainian crisis has led to a situation where the voice of the Eastern European countries and, in particular, Poland, is beginning to determine European foreign policy interests. This state of affairs is unique in modern history, writes Valdai Club Programme…
🇪🇺 The Ukrainian crisis itself was, to a certain extent, the result of the fact that the continental Europe has lost all ability to be strategically independent.
This occurred as part of a gradual process that combined the consequences of the events of the middle of the last century and the failure of attempts to build a genuine political union on the basis of European integration, combining this with the expansion of the membership and the creation of a common economic policy through financial instruments within the Eurozone.
The actual position of Europeans in world politics is increasingly consistent with how we might see it in terms of abstract assessments of the relationship with the United States and their ability to act independently, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/consequences-of-europe-s-strategic-failure/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #Europe
🗣 🗣 🗣
This occurred as part of a gradual process that combined the consequences of the events of the middle of the last century and the failure of attempts to build a genuine political union on the basis of European integration, combining this with the expansion of the membership and the creation of a common economic policy through financial instruments within the Eurozone.
The actual position of Europeans in world politics is increasingly consistent with how we might see it in terms of abstract assessments of the relationship with the United States and their ability to act independently, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/consequences-of-europe-s-strategic-failure/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #Europe
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Valdai Club
Consequences of Europe’s Strategic Failure
The actual position of Europeans in world politics is increasingly consistent with how we might see it in terms of abstract assessments of the relationship with the United States and their ability to act independently, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei…
🇪🇺 At the beginning of March 2024, the European Commission adopted and published the European Defence Industrial Strategy (“Strategy”) and the European Defence Industry Programme (“Programme”).
These measures were a reaction to Russia’s overall success, both amid its Special Military Operation, as well as in mobilizing the resources of its military-industrial complex.
The current circumstances require the EU and its member states to take immediate action, both to replace weapons supplied to Ukraine and to build up their own military potential, as well as to ensure new supplies.
This step towards establishing a common military-industrial complex for the European Union seems logical, but one should not expect results from its implementation in the short term, write Kirill Seroshtanov and Alexey Timoshenko.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/militarisation-of-the-european-union-beating-plows/
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Europe #militarisation
🗣 🗣 🗣
These measures were a reaction to Russia’s overall success, both amid its Special Military Operation, as well as in mobilizing the resources of its military-industrial complex.
The current circumstances require the EU and its member states to take immediate action, both to replace weapons supplied to Ukraine and to build up their own military potential, as well as to ensure new supplies.
This step towards establishing a common military-industrial complex for the European Union seems logical, but one should not expect results from its implementation in the short term, write Kirill Seroshtanov and Alexey Timoshenko.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/militarisation-of-the-european-union-beating-plows/
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Europe #militarisation
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