⚠️🌐 The situation is moving in the direction of global disaster.

The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict has become protracted, making the world a more dangerous place. 

Despite not formally sending troops, the US and NATO have used almost all means of mixed warfare such as financial sanctions, an information blockade, intelligence support, satellite navigation and air and space technology to comprehensively strangle Russia.

In the more than 40 days since the conflict began, the West has imposed more than 5300 sanctions on Russia, which is 50% more sanctions than the United States has imposed on Iran over the past 40 years.

More military assistance and financial sanctions from the US and NATO are still on the way. This is undoubtedly adding fuel to the flames, stimulating Russia to fight back more. 

More and more scholars estimate that the possibility of the outbreak of World War III is increasing, and have even concluded that this could lead to the outbreak of a nuclear war. The situation is moving in the direction of global disaster, writes Valdai Club expert Wang Wen.

🔗 The World Is on the Most Dangerous Eve

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Ukraine

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌎🪖🌏 We are probably at the starting point of an unfolding crisis, and not close to its end.

A point of balance has not yet been found in the ongoing military campaign. However, it has its own options for development:

1️⃣ In the first scenario, the current Ukrainian government and Russia enter into an agreement that takes into account Russian demands, and these agreements are recognised by the West as part of a European security package deal. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis would give way to a Russian-Western military-political confrontation, akin to the Cold War.

2️⃣ The second scenario assumes the development of events under the influence of the military situation on the ground. As a result, either a balance is inevitably found, or one of the parties prevails. In this case, there are risks that the West will not recognise the results of the deal, and a new Ukrainian government will arise, and be opposed by the government in exile. From the West, there will be a system of support for the Ukrainian underground, similar to the one that existed in the west of Ukraine in the 1950s.

3️⃣ The third scenario involves a sharp escalation of tension between Russia and the West. It is possible that the crisis will spread to the NATO countries or the escalation of the sanctions war against Russia follows in the hope of shaking the foundations of the Russian statehood. In this case, the risks of a nuclear collision will increase. However, so far, we see that Western leaders are distancing themselves from such plans and saying that they will not send NATO forces to this conflict.

Nevertheless, we have repeatedly seen how the West crosses its own “red lines” — it can really happen again, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.

🔗 Strategic Foundations of the Ukrainian Crisis

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #WorldOrder

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

✌️🌐 This in turn helps us define what the left should be, which is actually the intention of its founders: an alliance between the working and poor people of all countries, based on the common needs of all humanity, not just one privileged part of it, and least of all on the racial fantasy that any one part of humanity is born superior to another.

Such a left, in the Western World, hardly exists. It has rotted from within under the Hubristic delusion that so-called “Western Civilization” entitles it to tell everyone else what to do.

Peace calls for a global left, that truly represents the working and poor people of the whole world, recognises all of them as genuine equals, and places their common rights, and their common needs, above those of property-owners and their profits.

Such a left is the only path to peace, Valdai Club expert Alan Freeman writes.

#Norms_and_Values #NATO #Ukraine

@valdai_club

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺 US President Joe Biden recently admitted that the conflict over Ukraine will become protracted, making it a kind of competition of wills between Russia and Europe.

The conflict is really turning into a duel of endurance potentials: there is a determination on the Russian side to see things through to the end, there are no doubts about Ukraine’s determination to wage war, despite the large number of losses and the growing tension in society.

The negotiating line that Russia came up with in March can be seen as a big win for Kiev: recognition of the Donbass republics and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, removal of nationalists from government and law enforcement agencies, military neutrality of the country and demilitarisation.

Russia will no longer return to the negotiating table with the same proposal; Russia’s next offer will be developed from other positions. Of course, it will take shape as a result of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.

However, the Russian position will also be formed with an eye to the social processes in the West: now there is no certainty that Ukraine will remain in its list of priorities over the long term. Already now in the West, fatigue from the bloody hostilities ripens. 

Until the last Soviet cartridge is fired in Kiev’s arsenal, until the mistakes of the command give rise to a cascade of tactical defeats at the front, and as long as their Western sponsors support them with weapons, Ukraine will fight, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine

@valdai_club

🌍🇺🇦🇷🇺 Many African nations refrain from condemning Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis.

They are taking a more independent stance because of their histories of imperialist control and ties with the USSR and the Russian Federation.

Numerous African governments and mass organizations refused to side with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its efforts to encircle Russia in order to leave it as a diminished state dependent upon the dominant imperialist nations globally.

Attitudes towards US military policy among Africans reveals the unsustainability of this approach to international affairs. These peoples know that the reckless approach by Washington and Wall Street will have a negative social impact on billions around the globe, writes Abayomi Azikiwe, Editor and Publisher of the Pan-African News Wire.

#Norms_and_Values #Africa #Ukraine

@valdai_club

🔎⚔️🗞 Most analysts in the West have developed a special kind of moral blindness, which is rooted in the feeling of being chosen; the ideological, moral superiority of the Western model of development.

They believe that they are advancing at a high speed along the path of progress, that there is a right side of history, and that the movement along it justifies the means by which this progress is achieved. They value civilian deaths quite differently depending on which side they represent. This is a special type of hypocrisy — to divide people into those who are on the right side of history and who are on the wrong side of history.

At the initial stage of the current phase of the crisis in the West, analysts began to play the role of activists and rhetorically exclaim: “how is that?”, “no war”, and “we are for peace.” For them, there is only one participant in the conflict worthy of support — Ukraine, which is on the right side of history. Accordingly, its missile attacks on Donbass and Russian territory are righteous. There was not a single sympathetic statement in the West regarding the murder of pro-Russian citizens in Odessa on May 2, 2014.

The tacit acceptance of a consistent defeat of the rights of Russians in Ukraine is completely unacceptable for Russia, and Western experts will not find understanding in Moscow until they stop looking at the problem selectively, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #West

@valdai_club

🌐 Probably only Russia among the classical European powers retained its diplomatic tradition.

Thanks to a strong school of diplomacy and a developed institutional environment for cultivating professional experience, Russian diplomats develop the ability to see the world pragmatically, and without ideological lenses, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-do-the-political-elites-of-ukraine/

#ModernDiplomacy #Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine

@valdaiclub

🪖 The unprecedented hardships of the real war that Ukraine is now facing could be significantly less if the government of Vladimir Zelensky showed it was ready to pursue a diplomatic settlement of the crisis.

Russia has repeatedly come up with diplomatic initiatives to resolve this conflict.
For example, at its first stage, such negotiations took place in Belarus and, later, in Turkey. However, under the influence of the United States and Britain, the government of Zelensky took a course of prolonging the conflict, counting on the fact that military assistance from the West would allow Ukraine to achieve its goals during this crisis.

It is unlikely that Zelensky is counting on a military victory for his country. For this, Ukraine does not have its own military-economic resources, and the funds provided by the West will never be sufficient to inflict a final defeat on Russia.

Probably, the calculation of the president of Ukraine is based on offering Ukraine as a tool for the West in the fight against Russia, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-does-zelensky-need-a-long-conflict-with-russia/

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine

@valdai_club